城镇专业市场形成的供需机制分析

在分析本地专业市场的地理意义及其对供需的空间聚集能力的基础上,由生产带动和消费带动两种模式入手对本地专业市场的供需互动形成机制进行探讨.通过分析行业平均价格指导下的供需曲线变化,寻求对本地专业市场形成机制的解答,并以国内相关城镇的专业市场实例进行印证,得出在不同模式下本地专业市场的形成条件.结论显示,城镇专业市场是在本地与外地的供给与需求互动过程中有条件地形成的.     

河南省物流人才供求平衡分析

根据河南省近年物流人才的培养情况,提出了河南省物流人才供求平衡模型。其中,需求模型采用逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型进行分析,供给模型采用二次指数平滑法进行分析。通过分析,预计在2019年河南省物流人才供求基本趋于平衡。     

基于影响因素多维融合与贝叶斯概率更新的电力物资需求预测

通过梳理电力物资需求预测中存在的真实需求和计划需求、物资出库量和真实需求的不一致,以及电力物资需求的内外部影响问题,提出基于影响因素多维融合与贝叶斯概率更新的电力物资需求预测方法。首先分析了电力物资需求的内外部影响因素及其筛选,并按其对需求预测的影响程度进行权重赋值;其次设计了影响因素多维融合与贝叶斯概率更新的电力物资需求预测框架,介绍了贝叶斯概率更新的需求预测流程步骤;最后以温州市10kv配网项目的电力电缆需求预测为例进行算例说明。应用算例表明该方法能有效反映需求因素对电力物资需求变动的影响,符合电力物资需求特性,且具有很强的拓展性。     

基于角色分析的人力资源从业者需求模型构建初探

文章旨在初步构建人力资源从业者需求模型,为后续调查分析人力资源从业者的需求激励特性提供模型框架。文章运用文献分析法和访谈法,从其角色分析着手,以过程型需求激励理论为理论基础,探讨人力资源从业者的需求。结果表明:①人力资源从业者是企业管理岗位上的集多重角色于一身的知识型员工;②人力资源从业者的需求具有两极化:同时注重薪酬等低级的物质需求和成就、权力、亲和等高级需求。     

The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model

This study examines the demand for broad money (M2) in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The results based on the bounds testing procedure confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between M2 and its determinants: real income, inflation, foreign interest rates and stock prices. Importantly, our results reveal that stock prices have a significant wealth effect on long- and short-run broad money demand; its omission can lead to serious misspecifications in the money demand function (MDF). This finding is consistent with the notion that asset inflation (deflation) has systematic influence on the pattern of monetary aggregates.     

资产评估市场法的经济价值论基础研究

市场法是资产评估最基本的方法之一,本文对市场法的价值论基础———供求论及均衡论进行全面系统的研究。     

基于供需平衡的区域物流耦合系统的研究

以促进区域物流可持续发展为目标,从物流供需平衡分析的角度入手,力图构建一个基于供需平衡的区域物流耦合系统。首先说明了区域物流供需平衡的内涵,并在此基础上给出了区域物流耦合系统的架构,之后分析了该系统的特征和运作机制。为区域范围内物流供给和物流需求实现真正融合提供了新的思路。     

British Bus Deregulation: Competition and Demand Coordination

Our framework formally explains some of the recent curious events surrounding deregulation of the British local bus industry. The winner-takes-all nature of this market induces competitive providers to engage in predatory or preemptive behavior in scheduling and pricing. Unlike previous works, we explicitly model consumers' responses to firms' schedule announcements. We show that the market is unstable if demand is uncoordinated, but stable otherwise. Our results highlight the important role played by demand-coordinating mechanisms in local bus markets and our results suggest that pure-strategy Nash equilibria exist in models à-la-Hotelling (1929) whenever demand is effectively coordinated.     

中国第三方物流业需求状况分析

针对中国第三方物流业的需求,从总体状况、需求内容、需求标准、需求趋势几方面深入对比分析,从宏观上把握第三方物流业需求层次与特点,并针对每一方面的问题提出了相应的建议。     

A Housing Career Perspective on Risk

The main question analyzed in the article is how uncertainty in the asset price of owner-occupied housing capital affects user costs and consequently housing demand. The analysis is performed within the framework of a dynamic model of planned housing careers. Owner-occupied housing has a dual role as both an asset and a consumption good—a consumption good both now and in the future. By holding owner-occupied housing capital, the risk associated with future purchase of housing can be reduced. Taking account of this, it is shown that the risk premium in the user cost is negative for consumers on a sufficient increasing path of future housing consumption. Hence, the demand for owner-occupied housing of a risk-averse consumer can be increasing in asset price volatility. This result is contrary to the “conventional wisdom” in housing economics and can be identified only within an analytical framework that takes account of the dynamic aspects of housing market behavior.     

物流需求质量--第三方物流发展的动力

市场供给和市场需求的均衡发展．是第三方物流市场健康发展的必要条件。物流市场需求包括需求数量和需求质量两个方面，中国物流市场虽已启动．却因物流有效需求不足，特别是物流需求质量的低下．而未被激活。物流需求质量的提升，将为第三方物流的发展提供动力。     

应急需求

在大量阅读分析资料的基础上提出了“应急需求”的概念,论述了应急需求的研究内容,根据应急需求的定义详细阐述了应急需求的分类,分析了应急需求的特性,总结了应急需求预测和应急需求优先级划分的研究现状及存在问题,最后提出了应急需求的研究方向。     

A POST-KEYNESIAN AGE MODEL TO FORECAST ENERGY DEMAND IN SPAIN

This paper develops an extended input–output model for the estimation of energy demand and related issues. It is built on the last Spanish Symmetric Input–Output Table (IOT, 2005). It has been tested for the period 2005–2008 and used for forecasting energy demand for the years 2009–2012 under different economic scenarios. The model shares some traits of the computable and applied general equilibrium models where quantity and price systems are interwoven. The differences lie in the theories explaining output and prices. Our quantity system is based on Keynes’ principle of effective demand (broad energy multipliers are derived). The price system is based on the classical (Sraffian) theory of prices of production, akin to post-Keynesian full-cost prices. The general price system can be manipulated to account for the specificities of energy prices. Historical trends of energy coefficients are computed by extrapolation of past IOTs and calibration.     

A fast and scalable ensemble of global models with long memory and data partitioning for the M5 forecasting competition

This work presents key insights on the model development strategies used in our cross-learning-based retail demand forecast framework. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art univariate models in the time series forecasting literature. It has achieved 17th position in the accuracy track of the M5 forecasting competition, which is among the top 1% of solutions.     

住房市场的刚性需求与投资需求测算——以北京市为例

对微观经济学中的需求价格弹性进行了修正,提出了测算住房市场中刚性需求和投资需求的方法,并实际测算了北京市住房市场的刚性需求和投资需求。结果表明,北京市住房市场刚性需求和投资需求的比例在每一年度都不尽相同,部分年份刚性需求占主导地位,部分年份投资需求占主导地位;同时,投资需求和住房价格增长率之间呈现很好的同步关系,在投资需求占主导地位的年份,住房价格增长速度明显加快。     

Using a Demand System to Estimate Extended Input–Output Multipliers

The interface between household income and expenditure has always been considered to be a key component in the construction of input–output models. However, it can be argued that households are too often treated as if they were just another in dustry in the input–output table. In this paper, we seek to address this problem by developing a new modelling framework in which a micro demand system is used to estim ate the relationship between income and expenditure. This demand system is conjoined with an input–output table for the UK economy, and the system as a whole is solved as a computable general equilibrium model. Comparisons are made between the Jacobian multipliers generated by this model and those derived from a more traditional input–output model in which the income-expenditure linkage is estimated using static coefficients.     

不确定OD需求下混合交通网络设计的鲁棒优化模型

假定OD需求是不确定的,但它属于一个有界多面体,应用鲁棒优化的方法对不确定OD需求下混合网络设计问题进行了研究,建立了基于用户均衡的混合网络设计的极小极大模型,并采用需求生成的算法求解不确定OD需求下混合网络设计的鲁棒对应模型。数值算例的结果表明应用鲁棒优化方法得到的混合网络设计方案不仅更加符合实际,而且较传统确定性的混合网络设计方案具有更高的可靠性。     

基于供需不平衡下海南旅游人数与酒店数量分析

本文从海南省国际旅游岛的建设背景出发,揭示了海南省酒店供求管理中存在的不平衡问题,深刻剖析了供求不平衡的原因和弊端,并进行了实证分析。在人数预测上,选用累积和逐期增长量两个指标,从增长的绝对量和增长程度两个角度有效把握目前的人数变化趋势,运用Eviews,进行一元回归模型分析。在酒店数量方面,根据预测人数和酒店行业入住率标准,确定最佳酒店数量。最后结合海南省实际情况,提出酒店供求管理在今后发展过程中的对策和建议。     

The monetary policy strategy of the Bank of England in 2020–21: An assessment

Excessive money creation during the Covid pandemic has resulted in Britain's worst episode of inflation since 1990–91. The backdrop to this failure of monetary policy is the Bank of England's aggregate demand/aggregate supply framework together with the Monetary Policy Committee's neglect of broad money. An alternative way to operate monetary policy is urgently needed. A significantly improved monetary policy outcome could be achieved by shifting from trying to steer the economy using interest rates and quantitative easing or quantitative tightening to reliance on the relative stability of income velocity (the ratio of nominal GDP to broad money) as a means of managing aggregate demand.     

基于博弈论的城市道路交通拥挤收费分析

针对城市道路交通拥挤不断加剧,交通供需不平衡矛盾日益尖锐的现实问题,在分析城市道路交通拥挤收费基本原理的基础上,应用博弈论的分析方法,针对交通出行车与交通管理者之间的拥挤收费进行了博弈分析,以期对我国实施该政策具有借鉴意义。