Comparative study of the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and symptom of real estate in China

Since the essence of US subprime mortgage crisis just lies in the bank credit crisis caused by bubbles bursting of real estate market, some questions are really worthy of our deep reflection, such as whether there are bubbles existing in Chinese real estate market, whether there is crisis implied in Chinese real estate industry and financial crisis, as well as the difficulties that Chinese real estate is facing and the extent to which its difficulties might overshadow it. Therefore, based on the comparative study of the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and symptom of real estate in China, this paper illustrates the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and relevant symptom that Chinese real estate industry is facing, and further dialyzes a series of warnings brought to Chinese real estate.     

Several ponders on current real estate macroeconomic regulation and control

In view of the housing price continually rising and real estate market＇s confusion, the real estate market＇s macroeconomic regulation and control of government have become the social economy＇s hot topic. In order to enable the macroeconomic regulation and control policy to achieve the expectation effect, this paper proposes that real estate macroeconomic regulation and control should be paid attention to, and gives the countermeasure suggestion.     

Study on Real Estate Investment Trusts and application in China

The Real Estate Investment Trusts （REITs） is a mature investment and financing tool in the real estate market abroad. RE1Ts is able to deploy resource, circulate necessary funds and disperse risk effectively. It is the feasible effective way and necessary choice during the real estate finance innovation. But there is a big gap between RE1Ts in China and the mature RE1Ts abroad. Because RE1Ts in China puts more attention on the financing function of the real estate. Besides, because the relevance law and the market environment are not perfect, REITs couldn＇t exploit its advantages very well in China. It needs to be developed in the practice. This paper starts with introducing the concept of REITs. Then the paper goes on to tell the types and characteristics of REITs aboard. It continues to study the experience of mature RE1Ts in the market and finds out disadvantages which China＇s RE1Ts have. Based on above research, the paper considers about the situation in China and states the mode of RE1Ts we should choose in China. At the same time, the paper points out the important problems we should deal with when we develop REITs in China.     

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China： 1997-2007

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China＇s improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.     

China, A Developing Market Economy Country

China’s accession to the WTO in the year 2001 isan event of great significance in the history of worldtrade.The World Trade Organization,with theoverwhelming majority of its members being marketeconomy countries,follows the rules of market economyin its operation.It is unfair,however,that in its worldwide     

On the real estate business industry consolidation strategy study

This article does some researches on real estate enterprise＇s integration strategic questions, goes deeply into analyzing the route choice of the integrative enterprise, offers a visual angle of real estate enterprise developmental strategy choice, and brings forward some politic thoughts, tries the best to make the real estate enterprise realize the specialization, scale management through the integration route choice, then enhances the competitiveness of the real estate enterprise, and promotes the sustainable development of the real estate industry.     

Property development firms IPOs in Brazil： Was there overpricing or not？

Between September 2005 and October 2007, representative companies of the Brazilian residential real estate market adopted a strategy intended to increase their investment capacity by Initial Public Offer （IPO）. The setting at that time was favorable for constructing residential real estate designed for the middle class, in view of two main factors： First, in 2005, a restructuring of the Brazilian finance system had relaxed requirements needed to receive financing for the purchase of residential property; Second, there was substantial demand in the middle class market because most developers had been focusing on the upper class market in order to guarantee the sale resources in the production phase. Thus, it was necessary to enhance the investment capacity of the real estate companies to attend the middle-class demand. These two factors, associated with a favorable outlook for the Brazilian, as well as the global economy, encouraged those representative companies to rapidly increase their investment capacity by IPO in a short time. The focus of this article is to analyze the quality of the investments in the stock of these real estate companies （21 offers were taken into account in the analysis）. In order to identify what these companies＇ expectations were and how they supported their decisions to enter BOVESPA with their designated prices and amounts, correlating offers against the BOVESPA Index （market index） were also analyzed. The results allow concluding that these offers were not supported by validated procedures of pricing, but rather were just speculative offers, even though we do take into account the investment grade granted to the Brazilian economy within the period concerned in our analysis.     

Structural Change of China''''s Labor Force and the Unemployment Issue

Since the initiation of reform and opening to theoutside world,and during the transition from aplanned economy to a market economy,China hassteadily dealt with some prominent issues.Among theseare the employment of a large number of new workers,the transfer of surplus rural laborers and the re-employ-ment of a great number of laid-off staff and workers at     

中国的劳动力市场走向何方？

This paper explores the development of China‘s labor market by examining labor market integration, the scale and scope of labor migration, and wage determination. It finds that labor market development has made dramatic progress since the reform, especially since the 1990s.There are still some institutional harriers to labor market development. It reveals some policy implications on how to develop the labor market and improve labor market integration.     

The Development of China＇s Electronics Industry： Causes and Constraints

The development of China‘s electronics industry can be attributed to supportive government policies, strong domestic market demand and the opportunities provided by the international transfer of technology in the electronic manufacturing sector. China‘s enterprises can only continue to develop through technological upgrading due to the lack of core technologies of their own. Since this process is still ongoing, China has not become a competitive country in the field of electronic technology. As a country in transition, government initiatives designed to encourage the development of the electronics industry have also undergone changes in line with economic institutional reform. Direct government intervention policies have been gradually replaced by indirect regulatory policies and the market is playing a more and more important role in the electronics industry.     

China's Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Dynamics

Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China's financial stability. China's rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors: worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China's corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China's nonfinancial corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists' intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China's corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms' profitability, while reducing firms' financing costs.     

数字普惠金融对家庭投资绩效的影响分析

家庭如何利用好数字普惠金融的发展,对于实现家庭投资绩效的增长具有重要意义。但目前,中国家庭投资多样性和投资绩效都还不高,家庭风险-报酬比也远远低于国外。所以,探讨数字普惠金融对中国家庭投资绩效的影响就显得较为重要。通过对中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）4年数据为基础进行实证分析发现,数字普惠金融显著地促进了家庭投资绩效与投资多样性的增长。进一步分析发现,中国家庭投资过于偏好投资性房地产,农村地区数字普惠金融发展还不充分。这为中国深化金融改革、扶贫攻坚战略提供了部分经验证据。     

Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short‐term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one‐way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.     

Renminbi Internationalization in the New Normal: Progress,Determinants and Policy Discussions

In the present paper we explore the internationalization of the renminbi with reference to the experiences of other monetary powers, and discuss its determinants, prospects and implications for China's development in the “new normal.” Specifically, after summarizing the major progress made thus far, we conduct a regression analysis, showing that economic size and financial conditions are significant determinants of the international currency status, while inertia and other unobserved factors also play important roles. These empirical findings enable us to undertake a scenario analysis focusing on the renminbi's potential to become a global reserve currency. Based on this quantitative research, we then revisit China's policy initiatives designed to promote its currency overseas. In our view, the internationalization of the renminbi, along with financial deepening and liberalization, should be regarded as a means to achieve China's goal of reaching a more sustainable and balanced model of development.     

Who Influences the Asian–Pacific Real Estate Markets: The US,Japan or China?

As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values, this study examines China's influence on Asian–Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US, Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017. Market integration is examined by unconditional and time‐varying conditional correlations, nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects. Overall, although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets, China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration, especially during the 2007–2011 crisis period. Financial crises have strengthened China's volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian–Pacific real estate markets. Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian–Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger. Therefore, diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.     

财政分权对我国城市房价的影响——以杭州市为例

2016年,中国的房地产市场依旧火热,房价增长迅速,热点频出,当然,房价的疯狂上涨也带来了很多难以解决的问题。研究财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格三者之间的关联,并通过对杭州市的相关数据进行实证分析,运用格兰杰检验分析杭州市的财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格,得出如下结论：财政分权使地方政府寻求更多的收入来源,加剧了地方政府对房地产业的扶持,并且导致了土地财政,从而正面影响了房地产价格。     

房地产业对金融机构的系统性风险溢出效应研究——基于行业与企业综合视角的实证分析

房地产业与金融业具有强烈的共生性，当房地产业陷入困境时，是否会迅速扩散到与其关联的各类金融机构，蔓延并危及整个金融系统，出现房地产业对金融机构的"系统性风险溢出"?文章综合运用房地产行业指数与房地产企业数据，基于CoVaR模型和分位数回归方法，测算了我国房地产业对各类金融机构的系统性风险溢出强度，分析了其时变趋势和影响因素。实证结果表明，我国房地产业对金融机构存在较为显著的系统性风险溢出效应，在时间维度上存在周期性；房地产业对股份制与城商行的风险溢出强度最大，其次是保险机构和信托，最小的是国有银行；房地产企业的自身风险、规模和负债水平对风险溢出强度具有显著影响。据此，文章对金融监管部门、金融机构与房地产行业提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国房地产泡沫与金融支持的相关性研究

在我国资本市场改革发展进程中,房地产泡沫日益显现,通过构建衡量我国房地产金融支持过度的评价指标,建立向量误差修正模型,对房地产泡沫与金融支持进行了实证分析,并围绕如何防范房地产泡沫提出了风险预警指标和加强内部监控等建议。     

Host countries’ growth opportunities and China's outward FDI

In 2014, China proposed the Belt and Road policy, which has pushed China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) to over tens of billions of US dollars. However, existing studies have not reached a consensus about the decisive factors in China's OFDI. To verify whether China's OFDI activities are motivated by profits, this paper applies a measure of country‐specific growth opportunities adopted by Bekaert et al. (2007) to measure the growth opportunities of the target countries for China's OFDI. A multinational panel data model, based on data from 51 countries from 2003 to 2012, is used to explore the relationship between host countries’ growth opportunities and China's OFDI. Overall, the analysis finds that China's OFDI does not follow the host countries’ growth opportunities but exhibits different features toward developed countries and developing countries. For developed countries, China's OFDI follows host countries’ growth opportunities to some extent. In the case of developing countries, China's OFDI does not follow host countries’ growth opportunities. When we consider factors such as a host country's financial development and political stability, improvement in these factors improves the attractiveness of the host country to China's OFDI. It is also found that the 2008 global financial crisis did not have a very significant impact on China's OFDI activities.     

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on China： Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper applies a structural vector autoregression analysis to quantify the impact of the global financial crisis on China. It is found that the impact is indeed sizeable： a 1-percent decline in economic growth in the USA, the EU and Japan is likely to lead to a0. 73-percent decline in growth in China. The article discusses whether the current measures of fiscal stimulus are adequate to offset the sharp decline in external demand Although there is little doubt that the massive fiscal stimulus will largely offset the significant shortfalls in external demand, the current growth pattern in China will be increasingly unsustainable in the long term. China ＂s reform cycles suggest that external shocks are often opportunities for structural reforms. Therefore, the crisis could also be a catulyst for rebalancing China ＇s economic structure so as to return the economy to a sustainable path.