The macrodynamics of international migration as a socio-cultural diffusion process. Part B: applications

"This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin....Two specific paradigms of diverse nature serve to demonstrate the model's tenets and pertinence, one being Greek emigration to the United States since 1820, and the other total out-migration from Cyprus since statehood (1946)."     

Diaspora growth and aggregate remittances: an inverted-U relationship?

This paper presents a model in which remittances stem from a decision made jointly by a family coalition of multiple migrants and non-migrants, allowing two alternative interpretations: migrants’ altruism or bargaining power. The model predicts that aggregate remittances first increase, reach a maximum, and then decrease as the emigration ratio (migrants/non-migrants) increases. An alternative model of loan repayment arrangement between each migrant and her parents, predicts that aggregate remittances grow monotonously with the emigration ratio. Testing both predictions on a macroeconomic bilateral dataset we find evidence in favour of the first model and an inverted-U relationship between aggregate remittances and the emigration ratio, with a maximum reached at a value of 0.5. Since many small ‘MIRAB’ island nations are close to or even above this threshold value, this finding is highly relevant for them since they may experience declining aggregate remittances as the diaspora grows further.     

中国农村劳动力转移动因与障碍的一种解释

农村劳动力转移是我国实现工业化必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国“三农”问题的根本途径。本文运用动态宏观经济学的递归方法并结合推拉理论,通过所建立的模型表明城镇的拉力,特别是城镇工业技术进步,是农村劳动力转移的根本动因。而基于宏观经济变量的logit模型和基于微观经济变量的描述性分析都很好地验证了该结论。研究同时表明,加强农村基础文化教育对我国农村劳动力转移具有深远的意义;性别、家庭收入水平、区位等因素的差异也对农村劳动力转移有较明显的影响。     

Anti‐immigration policy in the destination country and skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source economy with or without unemployment

This paper is aimed at theoretically examining the consequence of the anti‐immigration policy adopted in the destination country on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a source nation using a couple of two‐sector, specific‐factor general equilibrium models in both the presence and absence of unemployment. Emigration requires incurring some capital cost for professional skill formation on the part of every prospective emigrant that adds to the opportunity cost of emigration. The authority of the destination country determines the number of visas to be granted and hence directly controls the magnitude of skilled emigration from the source country. In the migration equilibrium, the expected skilled wage income abroad is equal to the opportunity cost of emigration. In both the presence and absence of unemployment of unskilled labor, the outcome of the policy on the wage inequality crucially hinges on both the magnitude of the fixed cost of emigration and the technological factors. In the specific‐factor Harris–Todaro model, the degree of imperfection in the unskilled labor market is an additional factor. Finally, some policy recommendations have been made for protecting the interest of the poor unskilled workforce.     

International migration,foreign direct investment,and development stage in developing economies

The existing empirical results on the relationship between FDI and migration are rather mixed. This study reevaluates, both theoretically and empirically, how inward FDI relates to emigration in developing countries. Our model illustrates that the relationship between inward FDI and emigration flows depends on the development stage of a developing country, that is, there is a positive association between inward FDI and emigration flows for relatively less‐developed countries but a negative association between these two variables for relatively developed countries. We confirm the empirical validity of our model prediction using the panel data of 21 OECD and 51 non‐OECD countries during the period from 2003 to 2012. Our results argue that as economic development proceeds in a developing country, the home effect of inward FDI associated with intensified labor demand would dominate the linkage effect that induces the brain drain problem through enhancing the socioeconomic ties with migrant networks.     

The Effect of Emigration from Poland on Polish Wages

In this paper, we analyse the effect of emigration from Poland on Polish wages. Focusing on the 1998–2007 period for Poland, we use a unique dataset that contains information about household members who are currently living abroad, which allows us to develop region‐specific emigration rates and to estimate the effect of emigration on wages using within‐region variation. Our findings show that emigration led to a slight increase in wages for high‐ and medium‐skilled workers, which are the two groups with the largest relative outmigration rates. Workers at the low end of the skill distribution might have experienced wage decreases.     

草原牧区生态移民的贫困风险研究——以内蒙古苏尼特右旗为例

进入20世纪90年代中后期,由于草原退化带来的严重生态问题,政府组织了一系列生态移民,但在移民搬迁过程中出现了大量贫困现象。文章以迈克尔(Michael M.Cernea)的贫困风险理论为基础,运用层次分析法,从物质资本、人力资本和社会资本三个方面因素对牧区生态移民可能面临的贫困风险进行研究,通过研究为草原牧区生态移民贫困风险规避提供有益的建议。     

Brain drain and factor complementarity

In this paper we develop an extended Solow growth model with emigration which aggregates different types of labor skills from strict complementarity to perfect substitution. The derivation of balanced growth paths shows that the most relevant cases for studying the impact of emigration are those where these paths can only be attained asymptotically. This requires and justifies the need for using transitional dynamics. We therefore derive a complete characterization of the transitional dynamics of output and wages in the sending country for all possible values taken by the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers. The model then serves to qualitatively study the effect of brain drain on per capita income and wages of the sending country.     

Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico

This paper examines empirically the effect of Mexican emigration to the United States on wages in Mexico using data from the Mexican and US censuses from 1970 to 2000. The main result in the paper is that emigration has a strong and positive effect on Mexican wages. There is also evidence for increasing wage inequality in Mexico due to emigration. Simple welfare calculations based on a labor demand–supply framework suggest that the aggregate welfare loss to Mexico due to emigration is small. However, there is a significant distributional impact between labor and other factors.     

Emigration and welfare in an economy with foreign capital

Discussion of the brain drain problem in the 1970s sparked considerable theoretical research upon the effects of emigration. In many cases, it has been determined that emigration reduces the level of welfare of the remaining residents in the source country, regardless of whether or not human capital is exported. In an economy producing traded and non-traded goods. Rivera-Batiz demonstrated that the level of welfare of the remaining residents declines as a consequence of emigration or at most remains unchanged. This paper generalizes the Rivera-Batiz model in another direction to examine the effects of emigration upon the welfare of remaining residents when foreign capital is employed in the economy. In contrast to other earlier studies, it is found that emigration improves the welfare of remaining residents if both they and the migrants have identical preferences and factor endowments. The author also compares the welfare implications of remittance flows back to the source country when they are used to finance consumption and when they are used to finance capital accumulation.     

The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

What are the fiscal consequences of high-skilled emigration for source countries? This paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high-skilled workers from India to the U.S. This wave of emigration from India to the U.S. is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime-age work force, the highly educated and high earners. In order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants, estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the Indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences. Conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to India of high-skilled emigration to the U.S. is one-half of 1% of gross national income (or 2.5% of total fiscal revenues). The sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail.     

What circumstances lead a government to promote brain drain?

This paper aims to complement the existing theoretical brain drain literature, focusing on the interaction between education, skilled emigration and government intervention in a small open economy. This article first characterises different emigration patterns that may arise in equilibrium, then seeks the conditions that lead a government to promote brain-drain. The model shows that the government may promote skilled emigration among workers with intermediate skills even though the resulting brain drain decreases per capita income. Emigrants remittances outweigh the income they would produce if they did not emigrate. Therefore, the government makes less severe the fall in per capita income that follows the brain drain by encouraging emigration among those skilled workers who are more productive abroad.     

Labor Market Developments in Albania: An Analytical Overview

Rising unemployment and falling living standards are two of the main problems facing policymakers in economies in transition. The case of Albania is distinctive, because high unemployment has been associated with a very large private sector and by far the greatest scale of temporary emigration compared with other transition countries in Europe. The authors develop a model that characterizes the path of unemployment in the presence of temporary emigration. They analyze the emigration decision and the factors that affect registered unemployment emigration, and highlight how changes in flow probabilities between sectors affect the time paths of registered unemployment and emigration.     

The impact of international migration on real wages: another look

"This paper examines the issue of how emigration alters real wages in the source country. The analysis is carried out first using the two-class framework developed by Rivera-Batiz (1984) and then by means of a simple model of scale economies and imperfect competition. Our results indicate that, within these contexts, real wages are likely to decline in response to emigration if (1) the migrants possess a large fraction of physical or human capital that they take with them when migration occurs, or (2) emigration reduces the scale of operation of domestic firms. Our conclusions are compared to those of Quibria (1989)."     

Emigration and the Optimal Speed of Transition

The paper presents a model of labor reallocation in a transition economy and analyzes the determinants of the optimal speed of transition. The model is extended to consider the effect of emigration flows from the transition country. In general, a rapid rather than slow pace of restructuring is preferable in the long run, but an initial period of gradualism may be optimal. The authors conclude that emigration, by improving the rate of job creation in the private sector and by reducing the burden of unemployment on the government, may lead to an earlier switch to rapid adjustment of labor, and hence to a faster transition to a market economy.     

The Export Promoting Effect of Emigration: Evidence from Denmark

Ethnic networks exhibit the potential to lower barriers to trade. The paper identifies the export‐promoting effect of emigration on the firm‐level using Danish data for the year 2001. Accounting for taste similarity, self‐selection and unobserved heterogeneity, three main findings are established. First, the elasticity of manufacturing exports to emigration is robust and of similar size as the effect of immigration. Secondly, only immigration encourages market entry but not emigration, suggesting that variable cost reductions and demand for home‐country products are the driving force of emigrant network effects. Thirdly, benefits from emigration accrue exclusively to low‐productivity firms.     

Job creation and temporary emigration: the Albanian experience1

This paper focuses on job flows and unemployment in Albania during the transition from a closed, communist system to an open, free-market economy, and examines the role of emigration in the restructuring of the country. Our theoretical model indicates that in Albania, temporary emigration may have a significant positive effect on hiring in the private sector, reducing unemployment. Using sectoral data on employment, we illustrate the importance of emigration as an alternative for the Albanian labour force, and we measure the extent to which job ‘destruction’ in some sectors of the economy has been compensated for by job ‘creation’ in others. On these grounds, we compare the progress of Albania with other former socialist countries in Europe.     

International Migration,remittances and income distribution in the source country: a synthesis

The paper explores, under a wide variety of circumstances, the welfare impact of emigration. The analytical framework posited is a simple two-factor, two-commodity, two-class general equilibrium model that makes a distinction between traded and non-traded goods. The principal aim is to collect and synthesize the well-known results in the literature, derived from diverse analytical frameworks, as well as to establish a number of new ones. It is shown that pure emigration can be beneficial to the non-emigrants in the source country, irrespective of the welfare criteria adopted, if accompanied by sufficient remittances. The paper also highlights the fact that emigation does not affect all classes in society symmetrically. The division of losers and gainers depends on the volume of remittances, the distribution of factor endowments and the type of emigration.     

人力资本外流与经济增长--对人才外流损失的计量分析

本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,引入人力资本和移民净流出量两个变量,采用比较静态的分析方法,计量分析平衡增长路径上人才外流的收入损失.由于外流人才富含人力资本,根据给定参数计算,即使少量的高素质人才外流,也会带来巨大的经济损失.如果不考虑人力资本的正外部经济效应和国家教育投资损失,仅考虑劳动力和人力资本等生产要素流失所带来的经济损失,根据2002年的数据估算,我国当年的国内生产总值因人才外流就损失约92.2亿元.     

Migration,Transfers and Child Labor

We examine agricultural child labor in the context of emigration, transfers and the ability to hire outside labor. We start by developing a theoretical background and show how hiring labor from outside the household and transfers to the household might induce a reduction in children's working hours. Analysis using Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) data on the Kagera region in Tanzania lend support to the hypothesis that both emigration and remittances reduce child labor.