What you export matters

When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the “income level of a country’s exports,” document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth.     

智慧专业化视角下区域资源集聚与区域创新驱动发展

传统发展动力逐渐式微，创新驱动成为区域经济发展的新引擎。走创新驱动发展道路，需要新的经济理论解释、构建并指导各区域经济增长方式和发展模式转型。智慧专业化是一种新兴经济理论，能够较好解释区域创新驱动发展的内在动力。智慧专业化有效支撑区域资源集聚与区域创新驱动发展相关性研究，从资源内存性和外向性、资源技术和经济属性以及资源支持程度3个方面，论述区域创新驱动发展的动力来源与动力持续性，进而解释区域创新驱动发展资源集聚对区域创新驱动发展绩效的影响。     

基于分工和报酬递增的经济增长理论演进

文章对分工、报酬递增和经济增长相关理论的演进进行了梳理和总结.古典经济增长理论奠定了思想基础.其中,斯密理论是通过拓展新的分工实现内生和自我持续增长理论的基础;马克思关于分工形式的划分推进了对于报酬递增机制的认识;杨格开创了分工、报酬递增和经济增长的动态分析思路.内生增长理论以技术进步、知识资本和人力资本积累促进经济增长为核心,将分工和技术进步、知识积累紧密联系起来,以分工为重要分析框架论证报酬递增和长期经济增长的实现,吸收和发展了分工理论.内生增长理论和相关模型分别依循由古典经济学开创的两种分工观进行分析,对分工、报酬递增和经济 增长的相关理论和模型进行了重要扩展和充实.     

产业专业化能促进城市经济增长吗？--基于广东省21个地级市面板数据的实证研究

利用广东省21个地级市2000-2011年间的面板数据研究产业专业化对城市经济增长的影响。在对城市经济规模、投资水平、非农产业比重、是否为副省级城市、是否为珠三角城市、是否为沿海港口城市等因素进行控制后发现,从总体上看,产业专业化对经济增长的促进作用不显著。使用面板门槛模型对产业专业化的潜在异质性进行深入研究,发现其对经济增长的影响具有明显的倒U型的非线性特征：产业专业化对城市经济增长的促进有一个最优的临界水平;在到达该临界水平前,产业专业化程度提高能够显著促进城市经济增长;但在越过该临界水平后,过度的产业专业化反而不利于城市经济增长。同时,根据这一研究结论提出了相关政策建议。     

我国取消农业税的原因及相关政策措施

本文从城乡收入差距、农业的脆弱地位、农民收入增长、专业化市场程度四个方面分析了取消农业税的主要原因.继而阐述了"后农业税时代"的农业和农村工作存在的新问题,指出中国农业将面临更艰巨更严峻的挑战.最后,笔者有针对性地对我国农业和农村工作中存在的新问题提出了相关政策措施.     

The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.     

Does farmer economic organization and agricultural specialization improve rural income? Evidence from China

This paper builds simultaneous equations model based on survey data of 2445 Chinese villages to do empirical analysis of the relationship among farmer economic organization, agricultural specialization and rural income. It finds that raising the level of agricultural specialization can improve rural income significantly, and the development of farmer economic organization is an effective way to raise the level of agricultural specialization; The factors, which affect whether farmers participating in farmer economic organization, are characteristics of farmers, situation of farmer economic organization and relevant policies promoting the development of farmer economic organization. Therefore, it has great significance to agricultural specialization and rural income growth for government to take measures to promote development of farmer economic organization.     

论推进经济增长方式的根本性转变

了解经济增长方式演变的基本规律,可以对我国增长方式的转变起到重要的借鉴和推动作用。现阶段我国建立在粗放型增长方式基础之上的经济发展,在资源、环境、经济结构和国际关系等方面给我国的社会经济生活带来了许多严重的问题和困难。切实转变经济增长方式,要从各个方面、各个环节进行不懈的艰苦努力。     

我国产业集聚特征及其对区域经济增长影响的SGMM分析

笔者从集聚程度和集聚类型两方面描述制造业在我国各区域的分布特征后,基于2000年～2008年30个省市区的面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法(SGMM)检验产业集聚对区域经济增长的影响。结果显示:集聚程度对经济增长具有积极作用;与多元化相比,专业化的集聚更有利于经济增长;企业规模过小引起的激烈竞争已阻碍了经济的进一步发展。分行业研究时发现,不同技术含量的行业集聚效应是不同的,目前高技术行业集聚在区域经济增长中的作用尚没有充分发挥。     

生产性服务业对经济增长的集聚效应研究——基于中国地级城市面板VAR分析

笔者从马歇尔、雅各布斯外部性及新经济地理的综合视角,通过建立面板VAR模型研究了我国生产性服务业集聚对城市经济增长的影响。结果表明:生产性服务业专业化、多样化和集聚规模与城市经济增长之间具有长期的均衡关系;生产性服务业专业化与多样化对经济增长具有单向因果关系;生产性服务业多样化无论在长期还是短期均促进了城市经济增长,而专业化却对经济增长产生负向效应。由于城市生产性服务业整体规模偏小,其对经济增长的规模效应尚不显著。鼓励生产性服务业多样性发展,避免同一部门的过度集聚,扩大重点生产性服务部门的运营规模可能是较为理想的政策安排。     

中国区域技术专业化与经济增长——基于专利数据的实证分析

基于专利数据构建技术专业化衡量指标,测度2001-2015年中国内地30个省域技术专业化系数,展现专业化模式的区域差异以及变动规律,并利用门限面板模型进一步考察不同类型技术专业化与区域经济增长之间的非线性关系。结果表明：中国省域技术分工系数总体呈现西高东低的区域特征,并出现先增后降的变化趋势;只有少数地区能在高新技术和高机会技术领域实现专业化,大部分地区仅在自身优势产业所对应的技术领域实现专业化;技术专业化与区域经济增长之间存在非线性关系,创新能力较低时,技术分工将促进经济增长,而当创新能力较高时,技术分工的作用不显著,且不同领域专业化会产生不同效果。     

Technological specialization and economic performance in oecd countries

The paper investigates the growing sectoral specialization in technological activities of OECD countries (measured using patent data) and its impact on countries innovative-and economic performance in the 1975-1990 period. Aggregate indicators of sectoral specialization are introduced, showing the extent to which countries concentrate their innovations in few fields, or spread them across several sectors. A general positive relationship us found between the degree of specializatin in technology and higher rates of growth, while specialization in electronics-related fields in not associated to better economic or technological performances.The position of individual countries in these patterns is also examined, showing that specialization has been an element of the catching-up process of the past decades, which has led to a growing economic convergence among OECD countries.     

中国出口的专业化之路及其增长效应

本文利用半参数广义可加模型和按行业分类的省际面板数据,分析了我国整体专业化曲线的动态变化,以及该种变化对经济增长的影响。结果表明,我国出口走的实际上是一条非线性的、超越所处发展阶段的渐进专业化道路;在人均收入达到一定水平后,还可能出现加速专业化的趋势;同时,这样的道路已经对我国的经济增长产生了显著的不利影响,并将长期存在。而且,结论在控制了可能的内生性问题后仍然稳健。因此,未来扭转我国出口发展中这种内在的专业化发展惯性,无疑是出口结构调整需要重点关注的方向。     

浙江金华地区专业市场的发展研究

地处浙江中部的金华在近几年的发展中经济实现了快速的增长，这与金华地区具有特色的专业市场建设是分不开的，专业市场的发展对提升金华经济起到了十分重要的作用。经过今年的发展后，金华地区的专业市场规模不断壮大，逐渐的形成了聚集化、专业化、国际化的趋势。同时在发展过程中也出现了一系列的问题，这些问题将在一定程度上影响专业市场的进一步发展，因此，分析和解决这些问题就是当务之急了。     

中国城市生产性服务业集聚模式选择的经济增长效应*——基于行业、地区与城市规模异质性的空间杜宾模型分析

本文基于新经济地理学的分析框架,利用2003-2012年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验了中国城市生产性服务业模式选择的经济增长效应。结果显示,中国城市生产性服务业的专业化集聚、多样化集聚与经济增长都存在显著的空间相关性。生产性服务业集聚模式选择对经济增长的影响效应受到行业结构、地区差异和城市规模的约束：低端生产性服务业集聚的中小城市选择专业化集聚模式可以促进经济增长,而高端生产性服务业集聚的大城市和特大城市更适合选择多样化集聚模式。生产性服务业的多样化集聚模式在全国层面和区域层面（东部、中部、西部）都能够推动经济增长,而生产性服务业专业化集聚对中部地区的经济增长也能存在显著的正向影响,这得益于生产性服务业专业化集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应。提升市场潜力和人力资本不仅对本地区经济增长具有显著的正向影响,而且对周边地区经济增长也存在明显的促进作用和空间溢出效应。     

Specialization,product development,evolution of the institution of the firm,and economic growth

This paper considers the effects of the division of labor on economic growth and welfare in a general equilibrium environment where changes in individual specialization and product development can proceed simultaneously. The nature of the dynamic equilibrium is shown to depend on the interaction of transaction efficiency, economies of specialization, and economies of complementarity. Where the dynamic equilibrium involves evolution in the division of labor, this will be associated with increased per capita real income and hence economic growth. It is also shown that the emergence of firms is an aspect of the evolution of division of labor if transaction efficiency for a producer good is lower than that for labor used to produce this good.     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY MEETS ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY: GLOBALIZATION, INEQUALITY, AND INNOVATION STRATEGIES

I perform a Schumpeterian analysis of a world economy in which heterogenous individuals and firms endogenously respond to stronger global competition by undertaking more education and by spending more in research and development (R&D). A more globalized economy is predicted to exacerbate wage inequality, but to spur human capital accumulation within each country. However, despite its positive level effects on consumption and output, globalization can reduce each country's per-capita output growth rate. R&D specialization allows each country to positively invest in manufacturing, variety proliferation R&D, and product quality upgrading R&D. The existence of such an R&D specialization – jointly with domestic size – allows us to explain some different economic performance about inequality and R&D effort of developed regions, such as the US and the EU countries.     

Factor Price Equality and Biased Technical Change in a Two-Cone Trade Model

We reconsider the effects of long‐run economic growth on relative factor prices across cones of specialization. We model economic growth as exogenous technical change. Allowing for capital biased technical change with a sector bias and for endogenous commodity prices, we find that economic growth may increase or decrease factor price differences across cones. For a neutral demand side and capital biased growth in the most capital intensive sector, we find that economic growth encourages less factor price diversity across cones.     

Technological innovation governance for winning the future

Both developed and developing worlds today face significant economic crises. For winning their future, all countries will have to boost their capacity to innovate. Since technological innovation has now become the mantra for employment generation through growth of exported goods and to ensure sustained economic growth, current national technological innovation capacity governance policies need to be grounded on four basic pillars: (1) adopting an actionable taxonomy of technological system components utilized by enterprises operating in the fiercely competitive global marketplace; (2) relying on greater public-private partnership for targeted specialization in emerging technology industries; (3) complementing research-university-linked incubators with metropolis-based innovation hotspots; and (4) mandating a prioritized choice criteria function for technological innovation project funding. Why these pillars are important and how to strengthen national technological innovation capacity building-blocks are described in this essay on the basis of lessons learned from studies in many Asian developing countries and some developed countries of the world.     

Franchise fee,contract bargaining,and economic growth

This paper combines the industrial organization (IO) theory and the R&D-based endogenous growth theory in a model of a successive imperfect competitive economy. The current study assumes that firms between upstream and downstream industries bargain over both the price of intermediate goods and the franchise fee. Findings show that the intermediate goods firm with a R&D sector charges the price equal to the marginal cost. Economic rent may also be partly transferred into the franchise fee determined by the relative bargaining power. In particular, the traditional double marginalization result, such as in Spengler (1950), does not take place here due to the above-mentioned bargaining scheme. Finally, this work shows that final goods firms in vertically linked industries play an important role in an economic growth model. The more bargaining power the final goods firms have (or the more returns to specialization upstream firms have, or the less substitution elasticity the final goods have), the more the economy grows. However, the consumer preference for diversity seemingly does not affect economic growth rate.