经济政策不确定性与系统性金融风险传染——基于中国上市金融机构微观数据的经验证据

不确定性已成为系统性金融风险传染的重要驱动因素之一,基于2008-2019年中国50家上市金融机构的微观数据,通过构建金融机构风险传染网络,从微观层面实证探究经济政策不确定性对系统性金融风险的影响效应,研究发现:经济政策不确定性的提高会显著增加系统性金融风险水平,其不仅会加剧金融机构的风险传染性,而且会加重金融机构自身的脆弱性;经济政策不确定性对银行、证券、房地产和金融控股四类部门风险的影响效应最为显著,在经济政策不确定较快上升时期,银行、证券和房地产部门表现出显著的风险净溢入效应,而金融控股部门则表现出显著的风险净溢出效应;此外,异质性分析显示,对于收益水平较低的个体机构以及在经济环境不景气和政策环境不稳定时期,经济政策不确定性的上升对系统性金融风险的影响都更加显著.研究结论为经济转型时期经济政策的制定和金融风险的防范提供了重要的参考.     

银行资本、盈利能力与风险承担

基于2010-2018年103家中国商业银行的年度面板数据,采用固定效应模型和中介效应检验,实证分析包括资本监管压力、产权比率和资本密集度等在内的银行资本变化引致的商业银行风险承担效应及其作用渠道,结果表明,银行资本结构改善可明显增强其风险承担能力.具体而言,资本监管压力与银行风险呈显著"U"型关系,资产收益率是其影响渠道;产权比率则与银行风险呈现显著的正相关关系,资产收益率发挥的中介效应大小占比为14.97％,资本密集度与银行风险负相关,资产收益率为其影响银行风险的中介渠道,中介效应大小为17.99％.基于此,监管当局需要科学把握监管力度;而银行应在满足监管的前提下,根据自身发展状况,选择最佳融资方式,加快资本投入建设,提高自身盈利水平,最终降低风险水平.     

金融科技对银行风险承担的“双刃剑”影响——基于宏观审慎监管的调节作用

稳妥发展金融科技,加速实现商业银行数字化转型,已成为现阶段及未来一段时间金融供给侧结构性改革的核心内容。基于金融科技的“赋能”效应和“挤出”效应,考察了宏观审慎监管下金融科技对银行风险承担的影响机制。研究发现：商业银行发展金融科技整体上能降低银行风险承担,但贷款结构调整、银行竞争程度分别在金融科技影响银行风险承担的过程中发挥着竞争性的间接作用,此外,宏观审慎监管对金融科技“赋能”效应有正向调节作用,而对金融科技“挤出”效应有反向调节作用。研究从银行成立金融科技子公司的视角出发,为商业银行发展金融科技和监管部门制定宏观审慎监管政策提供了理论探讨和经验证据。     

泡沫前后的政府政策选择

在经济全球化的背景下,金融资本的国际化流动不断加强,促成了国际金融市场的联动性和互相影响程度不断加强.而金融市场的迅速发展和资产证券化程度的提高,使得金融对于经济的渗透程度和影响程度加大.伴随着经济周期的扩张和收缩,相应资产价格的泡沫的形成和破灭的过程也对经济产生巨大的影响,政府在这样的不同周期阶段的政策选择对于平滑经济和金融市场风险显得十分重要.文章作者试图探讨政府在泡沫形成期和泡沫破灭期的理性政策选择.     

经济政策不确定性与股票收益及波动的双向影响效应 ——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证分析

本文基于Baker等发布的经济政策不确定性指数和上证指数,运用带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR)定量考察经济政策不确定性与股票收益及波动的双向影响效应.研究发现:经济政策不确定性冲击对当期股票收益具有显著负向影响,对滞后期呈现的负向影响会随着滞后期增大而逐渐减弱并趋于零;同时经济政策不确定性冲击也会加剧当期股票收益波动,随着滞后期增加这种波动效应会随之减弱.股票收益和股票收益波动率受到的冲击对当期经济政策不确定性无明显影响,但在滞后短期内会加剧经济政策的不确定性且中长期影响程度趋于零.鉴于此,合理引导公众预期,保持政策的稳定性和持续性以减少不确定性对股票市场的影响及其反向影响效应尤为重要.     

利用信托模式作为国内发展资产证券化突破模式的可行性

资产证券化运作机制的本质在于破产风险的隔离机制,而信托财产的独立性正好符合资产证券化的本质要求,从而得出结论:在我国现有的法律制度背景下,信托模式可以作为我国资产证券化发展的突破模式之一.首先论述了资产证券化的运作原理,分析了目前制约信托在资产证券化应用的因素,并提出对策建议.     

存款保险制度、银行资本监管与风险承担行为——来自中国银行业的经验证据

本文将存款保险制度引入银行资本监管对风险承担行为影响的分析框架,借助2007-2019年中国475家商业银行数据,实证检验银行资本监管对风险承担行为的影响及其协同作用.研究结果表明:资本监管会降低银行风险承担,且在危机时期对降低银行风险承担的作用比正常时期更大;在引入存款保险制度后,资本监管与存款保险制度会相互作用进一步降低银行风险承担;银行资本监管和存款保险制度除了对总体的银行风险承担存在协同作用,还会相互作用使银行资产端风险和负债端风险都得到显著降低.在控制银行层面和地区层面观测值的异质性影响后,研究结果依然保持稳健.本文的研究结论对于完善银行监管以及发挥资本监管与存款保险的协同作用,共同管理银行风险承担行为具有重要的政策含义.     

产权配置、特许权价值与银行规模效率

利用超越对数成本函数法,对我国商业银行的规模经济效应进行实证研究,并对比分析了不同产权制度下宏观经济因素、风险偏好、资产规模对银行规模效率的影响.研究表明,GDP的增长率对国有银行和股份制银行的影响基本一致,股份制银行的风险管理更为有效,同时资产规模与银行规模效率呈反向关系.     

商业银行发行或有资本债券与资产证券化行为的相互影响研究北大核心CSSCI

发行或有资本债券和进行资产证券化均可提高商业银行的资本充足率,因而二者存在替代关系。但是,资产证券化可以通过转移资产风险、提高流动性而降低或有资本的触发概率,而或有资本不触发转换时会提高债务成本,触发转换时则会对在位股东产生稀释效应,故发行或有资本债券的银行进行资产证券化的动机更多,反之亦然,从而使得二者之间存在互补关系。文章建立经济学理论模型,分析发行或有资本债券和资产证券化之间的相互影响,研究发现:发行或有资本债券与资产证券化之间的替代作用和互补作用均存在,且非常关键地依赖于具体的参数设定。在此基础上,对中国商业银行的相关实践提出政策建议。     

经济不确定性与商业银行经营管理研究述评

在后金融危机背景下,金融危机所延续的不确定性因素和经济发展不稳定性将对商业银行的经营绩效产生重大影响.国外学者主要从经济不确定性因素对银行信贷风险、资产配置和信贷行为影响方面开展了大量研究,本文围绕上述几个方面对经济不确定性和商业银行经营绩效关系的最新理论研究进行述评.     

仁义礼智信忠孝新论

仁、义、礼、智、信、忠、孝是儒家伦理学中的基本概念，也是中国古代化中的基本概念．本立足于这些概念的字学基础，通过逻辑思辩的方法，试图给它们以新的阐释。     

第一是位置，第二是位置，第三还是位置

工业园区、经济特区在一个国家经济稳步快速发展中发挥着不可忽视的作用，这样的例子比比皆是，越南也不例外。到目前为止，越南国内已经建有154家注册在案的工业园区，多集中在北、中、南重要经济区域内。虽然这些工业园区对越南经济发展贡献巨大，但是，其中许多家正式投入运营多年，园内仍空空如也，只有少数工业园区的使用面积比率和发展速度达到开发商预计的目标。     

跨国农业垄断公司对中国农业产业链的多维渗透及破解思路

近年来,以ABCD四大粮商和孟山都等为主要代表的跨国农业垄断公司加速从资本、技术和服务领域对中国农业产业链进行渗透。在资本方面,跨国农业垄断公司已在中国进行深耕,并开始进入更多细分市场;在技术方面,对核心技术的高效转化和集中掌握使其占据了农业产业链的制高点;在服务方面,对贸易、加工、仓储等服务环节的渗透使其获得了高额利润。中国农业企业是抵御跨国农业垄断公司渗透的根本,但目前中国农业企业的竞争力整体上低于跨国农业垄断公司,未能掌握核心技术、因投资回报率低而不愿深耕农业以及市场机制被扭曲是中国农业企业竞争力不足的主要原因。面对跨国农业垄断公司的多维渗透,中国应加强“监督审查”以构筑农业产业发展安全网,强化“创新引领”以打造农业企业核心竞争力,主动“扎根县域”以厚植农业企业的国内发展根基,积极“乘船出海”以拓展农业企业的全球发展空间,坚持“市场主导”以优化农业企业运营市场环境,进而谋求中国农业企业与跨国农业垄断公司的竞争均势。     

Alliance competence, resources, and alliance success: Conceptualization, measurement, and initial test

This research examines the effect of an alliance competence on resource-based alliance success. The fundamental thesis guiding this research is that an alliance competence contributes to alliance success, both directly and through the acquisition and creation of resources. Using survey data gathered from 145 alliances, empirical tests of the hypotheses provide support for the posited explanation of alliance success. The findings indicate that an alliance competence is not only antecedent to the resources that are necessary for alliance success but also to alliance success itself. C. Jay Lambe (Ph.D., The Darden School at University of Virginia) is an assistant professor of marketing in the Pamplin College of Business at Virginia Tech. For 10 years prior to entering academe, he was engaged in business-to-business marketing for both Xerox and AT&T. His research interests include business-to-business marketing, relationship marketing, marketing strategy, and sales management. He has publications in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Product Innovation Management, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, theInternational Journal of Management Reviews, theJournal of Business-to-Business Marketing, and theJournal of Relationship Marketing. He also serves as a reviewer for theJournal of Business-to-Business Marketing. Prior to joining the faculty at Virginia Tech, he was one of five Texas Tech University faculty members chosen in 1999 from the entire university for the annual Outstanding Faculty Member Award by the Mortar Board and Omicron Delta Kappa (Texas Tech University student organizations that recognize excellence in teaching). Robert E. Spekman is the Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration at the Darden School at the University of Virginia. He was formerly a professor of marketing and associate director of the Center for Telecommunications at the University of Southern California. He is an internationally recognized authority on business-to-business marketing and strategic alliances. His consulting experiences range from marketing research and competitive analysis, to strategic market planning, supply chain management, channels of distribution design and implementation, and strategic partnering. He has taught in a number of executive programs in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Asia, and Europe. His executive program experience ranges from general marketing strategy, to sales force management, to channels strategy, to creating strategic alliances, to business-to-business marketing strategy, to a number of single-company and senior executive management programs. He has edited and/or written seven books and has authored (coauthored) more than 80 articles and papers. He also serves as a reviewer for a number of marketing and management journals, as well as for the National Science Foundation. Prior to joining the faculty at the University of Southern California, he taught in the College of Business at the University of Maryland, College Park. During his tenure at Maryland, he was granted the Most Distinguished Faculty Award by the MBA students on three separate occasions. Shelby D. Hunt is the J. B. Hoskins and P. W. Horn Professor of Marketing at Texas Tech University, Lubbock. A past editor of theJournal of Marketing (1985–87), he is the author ofModern Marketing Theory: Critical Issues in the Philosophy of Marketing Science (South-Western, 1991) andA General Theory of Competition: Resources, Competences, Productivity, Economic Growth (Sage, 2000). He has written numerous articles on competitive theory, macromarketing, ethics, channels of distribution, philosophy of science, and marketing theory. Three of hisJournal of Marketing articles—“The Nature and Scope of Marketing” (1976), “General Theories and Fundamental Explananda of Marketing” (1983), and “The Comparative Advantage Theory of Competition” (1995) (with Robert M. Morgan)—won the Harold H. Maynard Award for the best article on marketing theory. His 1985Journal of Business Research article with Lawrence B. Chonko, “Ethics and Marketing Management,” received the 2000 Elsevier Science Exceptional Quality and High Scholarly Impact award. His 1989 article, ”Reification and Realism in Marketing: in Defense of Reason,” won theJournal of Macromarketing Charles C. Slater Award. For his contributions to theory and science in marketing, he received the 1986 Paul D. Converse Award from the American Marketing Association, the 1987 Outstanding Marketing Educator Award from the Academy of Marketing Science, and the 1992 American Marketing Association/Richard D. Irwin Distinguished Marketing Educator Award.     

我国服务贸易发展中的问题、成因和对策研究

改革开放以来,我国对外服务贸易取得了快速增长。但由于服务贸易发展的基础不牢、服务产业结构不合理等原因,致使我国的服务贸易发展存在总体发展规模相对滞后、贸易商品集中于传统领域等问题。促进我国服务贸易又好又快发展,需要社会各界,特别是有关政府部门、相关企业及行业协会等各类主体相互配合、共同努力。     

Child labor legislation: effective, benign, both, or neither?

This paper explores the relationship between the state-specific child labor legislation and the decline in child labor that occurred in the US between 1880 and 1900. The existing literature that addresses this question uses a difference-in-difference estimation technique. We contribute to this literature in two ways. First, we argue that this estimation technique can produce misleading results due to (a) the possibility of multiplicity of equilibria and (b) the non-linearity of the underlying econometric model. Second, we develop an empirical strategy to identify the mechanism by which the legislation affected child labor decisions. In particular, besides establishing whether the legislation was effective or not, our analysis may determine whether the legislation constituted a benign policy or not, i.e., whether the legislation constrained the behavior of families (not benign) or whether it changed the labor market to a new equilibrium in which families voluntarily respected the law (benign).     

理解凭单制:渊源、机制、模式及运用

凭单制作为政府改革工具,实质是在公共服务中引入市场机制的一种制度安排。它渊源于新自由主义经济学,从消费者角度通过强化其选择权而巧妙植入市场竞争机制。凭单制存在公平导向、效率导向及公平与效率兼顾等不同政策取向及模式。尽管它在公共部门需要一定的运作条件,但能广泛运用于包括食品、住房、医疗、教育、幼儿保健等具有融合特征的"福利物品"提供领域。     

Materialism, status signaling, and product satisfaction

The consumer satisfaction literature has not, for the mos part, integrated individual values into the product evaluation process. Yet a comprehensive understanding of consumer satisfaction can best be attained by including both consumer and product factors. To demonstrate the usefulness of including individual values, this research focuses on one consumer value, namely, materialism. The authors empirically explore how this individual value is linked to consumers’ evaluations of products they have purchased. Using surveys, the authors collected data from a sample of college students (n=211) and a sample of adults (n=270). Across these two studies, using divergent samples and products, they find consistent evidence that materialism is negatively related to product satisfaction in product categories with high potential for status signaling, but unrelated to product satisfaction in product categories with lower potential for status signaling. The consumption goals that produce these product evaluations are empirically addressed Jeff Wang (jianfeng76@yahoo.com; PhD, City University of Hong Kong) is an assistant professor of marketing in the Faculty of Business at the City University of Hong Kong. This work was conducted when he was a doctoral student of marketing in the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona. His research interests include social networks and consumer behavior, consumer satisfaction and well-being, materialism and consumption meanings, and consumer interests and public policy issues. His dissertation studies credit card debt as a socially embedded phenomenon and investigates how consumers leverage their interpersonal ties as they accumulate and repay their debt. Melanie Wallendorf (mwallendorf@eller.arizona.edu) is Soldwedel Professor of Marketing in the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona. She holds an MS in sociology and a PhD in marketing from the University of Pittsburgh. Her articles on the sociocultural aspects of consumption have been published in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, Advertising and Society Review, Addiction, Journal of Macromarketing, andAmerican Behavioral Scientist, among others. Her coauthored article on “The Sacred and Profane in Consumer Behavior” won theJournal of Consumer Research Best Article Award in 1992. Her research has been featured in theWall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, American Demographics, andFortune, and has been funded by the Marketing Science Institute, the Arizona Disease Control Research Commission, and the Office of Earth Science at NASA.