技术进步研究评析

作为人类改造自然的一切知识的总和,技术进步象一条涓涓溪流始终贯穿于整个经济增长与发展史,技术的进步是推动经济增长与发展的基础,经济学家们就技术进步对一国经济发展的影响进行研究是在对经济增长影响因素的理论探索中逐步展开的,许多经济学流派都曾关注过技术进步并试图将技术进步溶入其理论框架,从不同角度不同程度地用技术进步来解释经济增长的源泉和增长过程。本文从亚当.斯密体现在积累及劳动分工上的技术进步因素开始,循经济增长理论的发展时序,分别进一步评析了熊彼特的技术创新理论、以索洛经济增长模型为代表的新古典增长模型以及色彩斑斓的内生经济增长理论,各大理论流派均认同技术进步一定会推动经济增长和发展,但人类显然还没有找到一把普适的经济发展的"魔杖",关于技术进步与经济增长的理论研究在不断延续展开着。     

新经济增长理论——桔构主义经济理念思考

20世纪50年代以后的经济增长和发展理论大致是沿着以下两条线索展开的：其一，主流经济学家对新古典经济增长理论的不断修正和完善。以索洛为代表的新古典增长理论奉行萨伊定律，在完全竞争和规模报酬不变的假设条件之下，强调价格导向的经济调整机理，认为只要存在要素之间的高替代弹性和外生技术进步的作用，经济就能保持持续稳定的增长。索洛之后，新增长理论的研究者们不满意于新古典增长模型有关技术进步外生性的假设，以罗默和卢卡斯为代表的学者通过知识和人力资本溢出效应的分析将技术进步对经济增长的促进作用内生化，在规模报酬递增的假设条件下对新古典模型进行了扩展和修订。     

经济增长理论演进与经济增长模型浅析

古典经济增长理论十分强调物质资本的作用,这种对资本积累作用的强调,形成了经济增长理论中的“资本决定论”;新古典经济增长强调了技术因素对经济增长的关键作用,相对于单纯强调资本作用的“唯资本论”来说,这是一次巨大的进步;新经济增长理论认为,经济增长就是一个以知识积累为基础,技术进步、人力资本积累、劳动分工演进和制度变迁等诸因素共同作用的社会过程,并分别从技术变化、人力资本积累、制度变迁、分工演进的角度,提出了新的经济增长模型,使经济增长理论研究的侧重点和方向发生了转移。     

分工促进经济增长的内在机理分析

在关注资源配置的新古典经济学那里 ,分工问题未受到应有的重视 ,这主要是因为新古典经济学以分工既定为前提 ,而且它的完全理性及完全信息的框架也无法分析分工这一制度范畴 ,这也决定了新古典经济学无法合理地解释经济的增长问题。相反地 ,只有在有限理性和有限信息的分析框架下 ,我们才能透析专业化分工在经济增长过程中的作用机理———它通过促进行为人所掌握的理性知识水平及信息量的提高 ,进而带来其生产能力的提高 ,从而实现经济的增长与进步。新增长理论是对上述思想的模型化表述 ,它所设定的规模报酬递增的生产函数是其整个理论分析的关键所在。     

报酬递增与西部经济发展

本文梳理了从亚当·斯密以来三条报酬递增理论的发展线索,并在此基础上给出了一个以分工组织为起点、内生着外部经济、人力资本、技术创新和市场垄断等因素的报酬递增运行机制,这种机制表明存在着消极和积极两个方向的报酬递增.我国西部地区长期以来陷入到消极的正反馈机制之中,对此就必须通过提高分工水平、推动技术创新、促进制度变迁以及积累组织知识来摆脱贫困的恶性循环,并使西部地区在良性报酬递增的作用下实现经济发展.     

马克思基于分工的报酬递增思想

肇始于亚当·斯密的基于劳动分工的报酬递增思想,经扬格、加里·贝克尔和杨小凯等人的努力得到了进一步的拓展。从分工与外部经济理论来解释报酬递增,从分工导致制度变迁、组织创新与交易效率角度来解释报酬递增,以及从内生劳动分工、协调成本、知识总量和人力资本积累角度来解释报酬递增的分析框架,并没有真正解决分工导致报酬递增的真正根源,没有真正解决分工产生的内在原因、分工效率演进以及社会生产方式变迁所蕴涵的生产资料所有制的变化等问题。马克思的基于分工的报酬递增思想,不仅系统地分析了分工和报酬递增产生的利益动机和历史原因,还提出了一个报酬递增导致资本主义内在演进的宏大理论,全面科学地解释了分工和报酬递增。     

内生增长理论发展综述

本文对内生增长理论的发展进行了简要综述：放弃技术外生假定是对新古典增长理论的突破,拉开了内生增长理论的序幕;从完全竞争到不完全竞争的转变,是人们认识到仅仅用外部性来处理知识积累的回报是不够的,知识积累必须获得直接和明确的回报;“Jones批判”推动了理论的进一步发展,并产生了两类政策含义完全不同的理论模型。近来对技术进步的研究更加深入和微观化,这将会对内生增长理论产生重大的促进作用。     

人力资本、技术进步与内生经济增长

在内生增长理论中,卢卡斯认为人力资本积累是经济增长的原动力,罗默则认为技术进步是经济增长的源泉。本文构建了一个内生增长模型,以解释人力资本积累和技术进步共同推动经济增长的机制。     

新增长理论中的报酬递增与市场结构

传统的增长理论假设规模报酬不变从而避开了市场结构难题,完全竞争与规模报酬不变是相容的。直到20世纪80年代后期,报酬递增与市场结构难题的理论突破才开始在新增长理论中进行。作为一种简单的处理方法,新增长理论首先采用马歇尔的外部经济概念在完全竞争市场结构下讨论了报酬递增与内生增长问题。新增长理论最主要的部分是在报酬递增和不完全竞争同时存在的条件下讨论报酬递增与内生增长问题。本文对新增长理论如何处理报酬递增与市场结构难题进行了描述。     

内生增长理论对我国财政政策的启示

内生经济增长理论提出知识积累、技术创新是导致一国经济实现长期持续增长的源泉。目前,我国经济中还存在一些制约经济增长的因素,限制了我国实现内生增长的路径。有效的财政政策是促进技术进步,实现经济内生增长的重要途径。为此,政府必须出台切实有效的财政政策,培育实现内生增长的技术创新的条件。     

Accumulation of knowledge and increasing returns in neoclassical models

In the mid 1980s there was a remarkable revival of interest in growth theory. A relevant strand of new literature is characterized by the departure from the assumption of diminishing returns of capital or, more generally, of the accumulated factor. In this paper we will see how the neoclassical theorists incorporated the idea of increasing returns in the formal models of economic growth, already an important question in the sixties. The central point is that the recent recognition of the importance of this notion is not new but now depends on the vision of economic growth as driven by knowledge accumulation and no longer by capital accumulation as in the Solovian tradition. I would like to thank the referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

中国经济规模报酬测算及影响因素分析

中国经济要保持长期持续增长必须要转变经济增长方式。经济增长方式由要素投入增加型转向效率提高型的经济学内涵在于报酬递增机制的形成。从这样一个视角出发,运用了35个工业行业2000-2008年数据对中国经济增长中的规模报酬情况进行了测算,并对中国报酬递增的影响因素进行了分析,发现现阶段分工与技术创新仍是最为核心的要素。中国经济增长方式要转向报酬递增驱动的机制,最为根本的在于分工与技术创新良性互动机制的形成。     

Verdoorn’s law and productivity dynamics: An empirical investigation into the demand and supply approaches

According to Verdoorn’s law, productivity growth is endogenous to output growth, due to the existence of increasing returns to scale, broadly defined. Such an idea is at the root of both the endogenous growth theory and the Kaldorian approach. While in Kaldor’s view, a country’s growth is demand-driven, in the endogenous growth theory, growth is determined by the growth of the factors of production and hence growth is supply-constrained. This article empirically tests both assumptions for Verdoorn’s law by using a dynamic panel of manufacturing industries for seventy countries at different stages of development for the years between 1963 and 2009. In order to distinguish between these approaches, two different specifications are estimated where the growth of output and the supply of factors of production are instrumentalized by system generalized method of moments (GMM)estimators. The results show that, if it is assumed that the growth rates of countries are demand-driven, a faster growth of output increases productivity growth due to the existence of increasing returns. Alternatively, if it is assumed that output growth is driven by the growth of the supply of the factors of production, it is not possible to conclude that productivity growth is induced by output growth.     

The Economics of Karl Marx: Analysis and Applications

Abstract

Controversy focuses on three questions: Is capital a distinct factor of production? Is capital quantifiable in a theoretically consistent manner? Are process stories necessary around convergence to, or changes in, equilibrium interest rates? To all, Kaldor answers ‘yes’ to Knight's ‘no’. The controversy is historically important in: 1) shifting issues in recurring twentieth century capital theory controversies from periods of production to production functions, from roundaboutness to diminishing returns; 2) revealing Knight's position on increasing knowledge offsetting diminishing returns over time as an unacknowledged ‘precursor’ of new growth theory; 3) marking the turning point for Kaldor's attachment to Austrian theory.     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

Causal relationship between stock returns and real economic growth in the pre- and post-crisis period: evidence from China

This article empirically examines the causality in mean and variance between stock returns and real economic growth in China before and after the outbreak of US subprime crisis. Using a nonuniform weighting cross-correlation approach and the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we found no causality in mean or variance between China’s stock returns and real economic growth for the period before the subprime crisis. Interestingly, however, in the period after the crisis, we detected unidirectional causality in mean from real economic growth to stock returns and unidirectional causality in variance from stock returns to real economic growth. These new findings imply that the linkage between China’s stock market and its real economy has become stronger in the post-crisis period. The implication of our results is that Chinese policymakers should continue the deregulation and improve the efficiency of the stock market to sustain high economic growth rate in the future.     

Knowledge, consumption, and endogenous growth

In neoclassical theory, knowledge generates increasing returns – and therefore growth – because it is a public good that can be costlessly reused once created. In fact, however, much knowledge in the economy is actually tacit and not easily transmitted –and thus not an obvious source of increasing returns. Several writers have responded to this alarming circumstances by affirming hopefully that knowledge today is increasingly codified, general, and abstract – and increasingly less tacit. This paper disputes such a trend. But all is not lost: for knowledge does not have to be codified to be reused and therefore to generate economic growth.     

克鲁格曼新经济地理模型评析

克鲁格曼新经济地理学模型是以非线性动力学理论作为其产生的理论基础,将规模报酬递增和不完全竞争、固定比率的运输成本、过程的演进性以及动态模拟等研究方法引入模型,并建立了三个基础模型即中心—外围模型、历史和预期模型以及区域专业化模型。文章通过分析,以期对其新经济地理模型有一个比较全面的了解。     

What you export matters

When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the “income level of a country’s exports,” document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth.     

Nicholas Kaldor on Adam Smith and Allyn Young

ABSTRACT

Nicholas Kaldor was much influenced by the Smith-Young view of increasing returns. The objective of this paper is to critically examine Kaldor’s interpretation of Smith and Young. In particular, five questions are addressed: (1) Does Smith’s Wealth of Nations have nothing much to contribute in terms of disequilibrium theory or increasing returns after the middle of chapter four? (2) Did Smith and Young have a sectoral view of increasing returns in the sense that they saw increasing returns being confined to manufacturing only? (3) Does the Youngian growth mechanism need to be supplemented with Keynesian aggregate demand so that growth does not fizzle out? (4) What are the important policy differences between Kaldor and the Smith-Young analysis of increasing returns? (5) Finally, what explains Kaldor’s interventionist bent of mind and his dirigiste approach to policy making?