INTEGRATING A HOUSEHOLD DEMAND SYSTEM IN THE INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORK. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND MODELLING IMPLICATIONS

In this paper we argue that an accurate representation of household consumption behaviour is central to the analysis and comparison of policy interventions addressing sustainable consumption. Therefore, we propose to extend an input–output model with a specific household consumption model, at the core of which is a system of equations explaining the allocation of the households' overall expenditure across different purposes, such as buying food, the consumption of fuel for heating or electricity for cooling, education of children or travelling in terms of total expenditure and relative prices. This paper shows that the integration of a specific module for household consumption in a standard input–output model is an improvement for the analysis of the policies aimed at altering consumer behaviour.     

Prices and factor demand in an endogenized input–output model

This paper combines factor demand functions (for intermediate input and labour) and price equations (derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function) with the traditional input–output price model. The cost functions determine factor demands for materials and labour as well as output prices at given input prices. At the second level of aggregation, the intermediate demand as a single input is split proportional to the elements in the column of the technical coefficients matrix. The emphasis in this endogenization of technical coefficients is on two features. First, the repercussion of output on input prices, and, second, the link between the econometric model for the supply side and the input–output demand model.     

Using a Demand System to Estimate Extended Input–Output Multipliers

The interface between household income and expenditure has always been considered to be a key component in the construction of input–output models. However, it can be argued that households are too often treated as if they were just another in dustry in the input–output table. In this paper, we seek to address this problem by developing a new modelling framework in which a micro demand system is used to estim ate the relationship between income and expenditure. This demand system is conjoined with an input–output table for the UK economy, and the system as a whole is solved as a computable general equilibrium model. Comparisons are made between the Jacobian multipliers generated by this model and those derived from a more traditional input–output model in which the income-expenditure linkage is estimated using static coefficients.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS IN INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS

The analysis of income distribution (ID) has traditionally been of prime importance for economists and policy-makers. However, the standard input–output (I–O) model is not particularly well equipped for studying current issues such as the consequences of decreasing access to primary inputs or the effects of specific redistributive policies. This paper addresses this gap in the existing literature. We propose that IDs can excellently be studied by restructuring the I–O relations. A new coefficients matrix is defined, the so-called augmented input coefficients matrix. This matrix is the sum of the intermediate input coefficients matrix and newly constructed matrices of sector-specific input coefficients that represent the existing distribution of income. We show that shifts in the distribution can be modelled by attributing weights to these matrices and vary these according to system-specific rules. Numerical illustrations based on the existing literature are given throughout the paper.     

Analytical Problems in Decomposing the System-wide Effects of Sectoral Technical Change

The disaggregated structure of input–output (IO) analysis makes it very attractive in analyzing technical change. Various authors have applied IO models in comparative static experiments to measure the effects of observed technical changes in individual industries on economy-wide total output (or related primary input) requirements. Less often have researchers performed similar analyses on the effects of changes across all consuming industries in the productive consumption of a sector's output, because of the need to append an external analysis of substitution. Despite the obstacles to joint analyses of sectoral production and cross-sectoral consumption change, its appeal has long been recognized. In this paper, an anomaly in such analyses is presented: the sum of the separate effects of changes in production and changes in productive consumption does not equal the effects of the joint change. A comparative static exercise reveals the root cause of the anomaly: essentially, an index number problem. Empirical analyses are performed across a comprehensive set of US sectors to estimate the range of discrepancies.     

Disaggregating input–output tables in time: the temporal input–output framework

The input–output framework has evolved dramatically since its initial formulation. New analytical techniques and extensions have allowed a more comprehensive assessment of the economy and expanded its applicability. Nonetheless, the core of the framework has remained unchanged: an annually compiled input–output table, which conveys monetary flows between sectors in a region in a particular year. Hence, the technical coefficients derived from it are ‘average’ input compositions, neglecting fluctuations in production capacity, seasonality and temporal shocks within that period. This paper develops a consistent methodology to disaggregate the annual input–output table in its time dimension in order to estimate intra-year input–output matrices with distinct technical structures for a particular year. The main advantages in relation to the annual model are to allow seasonal effects to be studied within the input–output framework, to better understand the process of coefficient change and to offer a more comprehensive dynamic view of production.     

Productivity change in a multisectoral economic system

We estimate productivity growth without recourse to data on factor input shares or prices. In the proposed model, the economy is represented by the Leontief input–output model, which is extended by the constraints of primary inputs. A Luenberger productivity indicator is proposed to estimate productivity change; this is then decomposed in a way that enables us to examine the contributions of individual production factors and individual commodities to productivity change. The results allow for the identification of inputs or outputs that are the drivers of the overall productivity change. Their contributions are then decomposed into efficiency change and technical change components. Using input–output tables of the US economy for the period 1977–2006, we show that technical progress has been the main source of productivity change. Technical progress was mostly driven by capital, whereas low-skilled labour contributed negatively.     

Technological Change,Projection of the Technology Matrix and the Hypothesis of Negative Coefficient Changes: Parametric and Non-parametric Tests with Swedish Input–Output Data

Input–output coefficients at constant prices have a role in economic analysis when we want to distinguish between real effects and pure price effects. The speed and extent of technological change in modern economies is one of the main reasons why such coefficients change over time and the empirical evidence is substantial. Two models suggested in the literature for bringing about changes in the technology matrix are examined. We find support in historical comparisons for use of models with negative coefficient changes over time when projecting the technology matrix. Whatever the source of changes in technical coeficients, the null hypothesis of random changes could be rejected in favour of negative coefficient changes. Strongest support is given to this alternative hypothesis when relative coefficient changes are considered.     

Coefficient Change in Embedded Econometric and Input–Output Models at the Regional Level

This paper examines the nature of coefficient change in integrated econometric (EC) and input–output (IO) models that employ an embedding strategy. Existing approaches towards coefficient change in integrated models are first reviewed and several substantive processes that give rise to dynamic coefficients at the regional level are identified. The main sources of coefficient change arise from dynamic adjustment processes that affect the regional purchase coefficients, regional technological coefficients and regional integration parameters. Each of these sources of change requires a different treatment when adopting an EC perspective. A general framework is suggested that nests each treatment as a specific case. The different specifications are then implemented in an embedded EC and IO employment demand model for the San Diego region, and evaluated through a series of in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments. Simulation performance is found to improve through the use of a time-varying integra tion parameter. The results also indicate that model performance is more sensitive to the use of dynamic regional purchase coefficients than to the use of dynamic technical coefficients.     

Pollution-related variable input-output model: The Tulsa SMSA as a case study

Regional planners face conflicting goals of promoting regional growth and maintaining a cleaner environment since such growth usually causes polluted air. To help understand this complex relationship, pollution-related variable input-output model is developed. An interesting feature of this model is its ability to respond to both income and substitution effects. The pollution may be created not only by an increase in final demand (income effect) but also by a change in input cost (substitution effect). The conventional pollution related input-output model ([2.]) fails to capture the pollution effect associated with the substitution effect. Using the Tulsa SMSA as a case study, the operational impact of entry of a bicycle industry in the area to observe the development potential of other industries and resulting impact on air quality is simulated. Industrial impact was measured in terms of industrial output, personal income, employment, and regional import and export. The pollution impact was measured in terms of particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. The simulation analysis of antipollution control measures emphasized the substitution effect of the pollution-related variable input-output model. As input cost is increased due to antipollution control measures, equilibrium prices are increased, and technical coefficients are changed as a result of substituting behavior of firms. A change in technical coefficients affects both the output and the pollutants.     

Structural Change and Labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy

This paper extends the framework of input–output decomposition analysis into a model which decomposes changes in the labor requirement of an economy into effects of occupational substitution, changes in labor productivity and changes in material inputs. By application of this model to the Japanese experience it was found that the most important characteristic of the evolution of the Japanese labor force in the period 1975–85 was the replacement of blue collar workers by highly skilled professionals and technicians. Both technical change and changes in the structure of final demand fostered the increasing demand for professionals and technicians. As the mix of employment shifted towards high knowledge level occupations, Japan's labor productivity increased sharply.     

Structural Change in Pakistan's Interindustry Relationships

This paper examines and discusses the structural change in Pakistan's interindustrial relationships by comparing the direction of change in the input–output coefficients of the direct input requirements matrix, the total requirements matrix and the business multipliers over the periods 1975–76 and 1984–85.     

ENDOGENIZING CONSUMPTION IN THE INPUT‐OUTPUT MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Since the basic model of input‐output analysis does not take into consideration the income effect on consumption expenditure, we constructed a model which endogenizes consumption and breaks down integrated production inducement into Leontief and Keynesian effects in a generalized context and in two solution approaches. Using short‐term marginal consumption propensities, we estimated that Keynesian effects make up about 14% of the integrated inducement effects for Japan. The public services sector, which is not influential in the basic model, becomes very influential in consideration of Keynesian effects. Manufacturing and service sector products are the main targets of the expanded consumption. The impact of a change in exogenous final demand can be easily simulated by applying the suggested apparent input coefficient matrix to the integrated inverse matrix.     

A Multiplicative Decomposition Method to Identify the Sectoral Changes in Various Developmental Stages: Taiwan, 1966–91

This paper examines the structural changes and identifies sources of sectoral growth in Taiwan, which is an open but rapidly developing economy. A multiplicative version of a decomposition based on the Leontief input–output model is proposed. Empirical results based on deflated data using the shifting base technique show that average changes in final demand coefficients, mainly in household consumption and exports, account for a large portion of sectoral change in most industries. Extensive variations in industrial structure are detected in various developmental stages.     

The Subsystem—MFA: A Qualitative Method for Analyzing National Innovation Systems—The Case of Germany

The paper develops a method derived from the so-called minimal flow analysis (MFA), based on a subsystem approach, to find the characteristic technology flow structure of a national innovation system. The analysis uses input–output tables for Germany for the years 1980 and 1986, as well as innovation expenditure vectors, released by the Ifo-Institut, detailed for 58 sectors for the same years. The data are integrated into a subsystem approach and deliver a matrix of technology providers and technology users, which is analyzed by a suitably modified version of MFA. The results, differentiated according to rather economic vs more technical aspects, show what the German innovation system looks like and show that there was little change between 1980 and 1986.     

Assessing Aggregate Structural Change

The aim of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Italian aggregate structural change over the years 1965–85. We use annual input–output (IO) tables in current and constant prices to derive an aggregate index of structural change. We adopt several techniques for such an explorative analysis. First, we borrow from qualitative matrix analysis and graph theory some basic concepts to assess direct and indirect links among sectors, and interrelatedness measures are derived in a straightforward way. However, qualitative analysis of indirect links may be flawed, since it can establish a path that is quantitatively negligible. Then, we turn our attention to a non-standard quantitative index derived from structural path analysis, expressed by a simple function of the input matrix determinant. Since empirical findings indicate a structural break in 1975, we derive another measure of technical change: the dominant eigenvalue. Such an index has several interesting properties but no clear relationship to the circularity process implicit in the Leontief model. Results for constant- and actual-price IO tables are discussed and compared with main macro-economic variables over the sample. Empirical findings indicate a relationship between investment, variability in final demand and aggregate structural change.     

The Grad Field of Input–Output Models and the Nature of Coefficients

The grad field concept of input–output models is proposed to investigate the nature of parameter change on input–output models. Two kinds of grad field are explored. One is VB, which represents the multiplier potential and can be used to judge the influence of coeficient change on B; and the other is VX, which represents the gross output potential and can be used to judge the influence of the change of coefficients and final demand on X. The sensitivity and important coefficient concepts of input–output models are further examined in terms of VB and VX. Four kinds of sensitivity functions and importance functions are suggested.     

Note on the Differences in Accounting Identities between ‘Current Dollar’ and ‘Real’ Input–Output Tables

A common error among uses of input–output methods is the conflation of the accounting identities of current dollar, double-entry input–output systems with the accounting properties of ‘real’ input–output systems designed to index physical flows. ‘Column’ sums of the sectoral technical coefficients of the former systems will sum to unity by construction, whereas column sums of the sectoral technical coefficients of the latter systems will not, in general, sum to unity. In this note, the differences in the accounting properties of the two types of input–output systems are detailed, both formally and with the aid of a numerical example.     

DEVELOPING A MULTI-SCALE MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

Many efforts have recently been devoted to developing global multi-region input–output (GMRIO) models. Unfortunately, the scales of GMRIO models do not allow them to capture the heterogeneity of regions within a single country. Multi-scale models can provide more comprehensive analyses capable of capturing the interdependencies of the global economy while preserving regional differences. The primary objective of this research is to develop methods for integrating multi-region input–output data sets from multiple spatial scales into multi-scale multi-region input–output (MSMRIO) models. These methods result in models that may have unusual features such as non-square trade coefficient matrices and a mix of industry-by-industry and commodity-by-commodity technical coefficients. To demonstrate the feasibility of MSMRIO modelling, a Canada-centric model was developed. This model includes 47 countries and Canada's 13 subnational regions. A MSMRIO model provides a tool to analyse global issues with a more spatially detailed focus.     

Prices of Goods' and ‘Bads’: An Application of the Ricardian Theory of Differential Rent

Pollutants, wastes and scrap appear as joint products of consumption or production processes. Leontief and other authors extend input–output (IO) tables such that additional products and industries, respectively, account for pollutants and abatement activities; they also analyze the effects of pollution control policies, by means of traditional IO methods. This approach does not account for choice of technique and, therefore, neglects the possibility of substitution. This paper proposes to utilize Ricardo's theory of differential rent, which is based on the possibility of coexisting technical alternatives.