Does FDI increase productivity? The role of regulation in upstream industries

In view of substantial changes having taken place in the regulatory environment and in the light of the increasing role of inter industry linkages, we examine whether the total factor productivity (TFP) growth impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined by regulation in upstream sectors. Econometric estimates illustrate that FDI exerts a positive impact on the growth of OECD industries which slows down as upstream regulation rises. To raise the reliability of our estimates, we use instruments for FDI and regulation that are as free as possible of endogenous association with TFP growth. Our instrumental variable estimates verify that the influence of FDI on TFP growth depends negatively on the level of upstream regulation. Non‐parametric estimates confirm that the highest impact of FDI takes place at the lowest levels of entry regulation and public ownership.     

FDI,Productivity and Financial Development

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth by focusing on the complementarities between FDI inflows and financial markets. In our earlier work, we found that FDI is beneficial for growth only if the host country has well‐developed financial institutions. In this paper, we investigate whether this effect operates through factor accumulation and/or improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Factor accumulation – physical and human capital – does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit from FDI. Instead, we find that countries with well‐developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI via TFP improvements. These results are consistent with the recent findings in the growth literature that shows the important role of TFP over factors in explaining cross‐country income differences.     

FDI and Growth: What Cross‐country Industry Data Say

The theoretical literature has discussed different channels through which foreign direct investments (FDI) promote host country’s economic growth, but empirical analyses have so far been rather inconclusive. In this paper, exploiting the information of a disaggregated data set on a panel of 14 manufacturing sectors for (a sample of) developed and developing countries over the period 1992–2004, we are able to provide robust evidence on the positive and statistically significant growth effect of FDI in recipient countries. Moreover, we find that this effect is stronger in capital‐intensive and technologically advanced sectors. The growth enhancing effect comes primarily from an increase in total factor productivity (TFP) and from factors accumulation. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth and to controlling for potential endogeneity.     

Is foreign direct investment productive? A case study of the regions of Vietnam

By making use of a recently released dataset that covers a large number of manufacturing firms over the period 2000–2005, this paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI generated spillovers on total factor productivity (TFP) in eight regions of Vietnam. Unlike most existing studies, this paper focuses on the impact of spillovers that take place through both horizontal and vertical linkages. The results presented in this paper suggest that the impact of FDI spillovers on TFP varies considerably across regions. FDI spillovers generate a strong positive impact on TFP through backward linkages only in Red River Delta, South Central Coast, South East and Mekong River Delta while in other regions the impact is negative and mostly insignificant. The paper also examines the impact of the absorptive capacity on TFP growth in each of the eight geographical regions.     

Does foreign direct investment really enhance China's regional productivity?

While foreign direct investment (FDI) is widely recognized as one of major driving forces on promoting the regional economic growth in China, its impact on regional productivity is unclear and less systematically investigated. This article investigates the effect of FDI on regional productivity in China. Specifically, we adopt a newly developed measure of total factor productivity (TFP) to deal with the endogenous inputs choice accompanied with various measures of FDI, enabling to provide robust estimates on the TFP effect of FDI. Moreover, we examine the role of absorptive ability on the FDI-TFP nexus and explore the existence of FDI spillover effect on productivity across regions. The potential difference in productivity effect of FDI between coastal and non-coastal regions is also examined. Based on the province-level panel dataset over the period 1997–2006, the various estimates show that the overall productivity effect of FDI is significantly positive, while this effect depends heavily on the host region's absorptive ability. Technological gap is found to associate with a significantly negative coefficient along with the finding that FDI tends to exhibit a higher impact on productivity in coastal regions than their non-coastal counterparts, highlighting a widening income inequality between coastal and non-coastal regions in China.     

Investment History and Market Orientation Effects in the TFP–FDI Relationship1

This paper examines the robustness of previous stochastic dominance tests that find significant total factor productivity (TFP) heterogeneity between firms that export abroad and multinational enterprises (MNEs). We extend this literature by focusing on how ‘within‐MNE’ heterogeneity affects the extent to which one can identify the TFP threshold in the exporter–MNE TFP relationship. Within‐MNE heterogeneity is established by determining both the number and location of the foreign affiliates established by each MNE. In this way, we separate single‐affiliate MNEs from those with multiple affiliates, as well as analyse the role played by vertical FDI, a topic typically ignored in previous stochastic dominance tests of the Helpman et al. (2004, American Economic Review, 94, 300–16) hypothesis. Our empirical tests employ Japanese firm‐level FDI and TFP data for the period 1975–2000. Using Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests to determine stochastic dominance, we find significant TFP heterogeneity within the MNE group based on investment history and affiliate geographic location. While our results confirm the standard HMY three‐tiered classification to exist for Japanese firms, exporter–MNE ‘between‐group’ TFP heterogeneity is sensitive to the ‘within‐MNE’ investment history heterogeneity. We note that single‐ and two‐affiliate MNEs are statistically more similar to exporting firms than to MNEs with greater foreign affiliate totals. This shows the exporter–MNE TFP threshold to be not as explicit as Helpman et al. (2004, American Economic Review, 94, 300–16) suggest. In fact, our results allow us to identify the MNE‐side width of Girma et al.’s (2005, Economic Letters, 83, 317–24) ‘uncertainty region’ surrounding this threshold. Finally, we also find a strong TFP–market orientation relationship exists where the most productive firms follow complex integration strategies, lesser TFP firms do horizontal FDI, and the least productive MNEs do vertical FDI.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Trade,Technology and Human Capital: Stylised Facts and Quantitative Evidence

Stylised evidence on trade, total factor productivity (TFP) and skill intensity of the labour force is presented. Features emerging as salient are: growing trade in technology‐intensive products from the industrialised nations to the relatively laggard nations leads to embodied technology diffusion; the technology‐intensive sectors have larger shares of skilled workers; countries experiencing TFP growth usually have higher levels of educational attainment; also, the skilled labour payment share for a sector is positively associated with that sector’s regional trade share. These facts together help explain why endowment of more skilled labour facilitates absorption of technology ferried via trade.     

Internationalization of services: The case of intra‐multinational enterprise trade

Increased tradability of services, made possible by the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution, has been at the heart of the internationalization of services. Although rapid growth of the services trade between parents of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their overseas subsidiaries has contributed to the internationalization of services, empirical studies examining the determinants of intra‐MNE trade in services are few. This article, using the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) framework, attempts to explain intra‐MNE trade in services. The results provide strong support for the OLI perspective, and posit a complementary relationship between manufacturing foreign direct investment and intra‐MNE services trade. The results also suggest the importance of subsidiaries' absorptive capacity and breadth of global connectedness for intra‐MNE trade.     

Does it matter where you invest? The impact of foreign direct investments on domestic job creation and destruction

This study examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic employment by using unique division-level data of Japanese firms. Contrary to most previous studies focusing on the effect of FDI on net employment growth, we decompose it into job creation (JC) and job destruction (JD) for each individual firm. We find that FDI destination plays an important role: FDI to Asia increases JC, whereas FDI to Europe/North America decreases it; furthermore JD decreases, regardless of FDI destination. A frictional search-and-matching model with heterogeneous jobs can explain the differential effects. The model provides additional predictions on JC and JD by job type, which are also empirically confirmed.     

The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance

To serve foreign markets, firms can either export or set up a local subsidiary through horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI). The conventional proximity–concentration theory suggests that FDI substitutes for trade if distance between countries is large, while exports become more important if scale economies in production are large. This paper investigates empirically the effect of different dimensions of distance on the choice between exports and FDI. We find that different dimensions of distance affect exports and FDI differently. There is clear evidence of a proximity–concentration trade‐off in geographical terms: the share of FDI sales in total foreign sales increases with geographical distance. The positive relation between import tariffs and FDI intensity provides further evidence for a trade‐off resulting from trade costs. On the other hand, the share of FDI decreases with language differences and cultural and institutional barriers. The latter dimensions of distance thus affect FDI more strongly than exports.     

A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade

This paper asks a simple question: Did Wilfred Laurier's dream of free trade with the United States, when it came to fruition in 1989, also impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada by US multinationals? This paper argues that the customary static econometric approach found in the FDI literature, along with the assumption that policy changes influence only the intercept term, are inadequate to address the question. Instead we introduce an innovative dynamic framework to support the testing of hypotheses on behavioural changes in the variables using a structural break framework. A key conclusion is that prior to signing the free trade agreement US FDI responded only to current growth in the Canadian economy, in a unitary fashion, and current exchange rate shifts. This can be described as a static relationship. The implementation of the free trade agreements between Canada and the USA increased the responsiveness of US FDI to growth in the Canadian economy by a factor greater than two. Furthermore, dynamics are found in the form of a lagged effect for changes in the growth in the Canadian economy and interest rate differentials. These conclusions challenge the dominant view, including that in official policy circles, that the free trade agreement had no impact on US firms’ FDI decisions in Canada.     

The Effects of Greenfield FDI and Cross‐border M&As on Total Factor Productivity

We examine the effects of greenfield FDI and cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on total factor productivity (TFP) in developed and developing host countries of FDI. Using panel data for up to 123 countries over the period from 2003 to 2011, we find that greenfield FDI has no statistically significant effect on TFP, while M&As have a positive effect on TFP in the total sample. Greenfield FDI and M&As both appear to be ineffective in increasing TFP in the subsample of developing countries. In contrast, M&As have a strong and positive effect on TFP in the subsample of developed countries.     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Patterns of Trade: An Alternative Empirical Approach

Modes of FDI can be clarified by analysing the changing patterns of trade among host, home and third countries. However, most empirical experiments of foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants have been confined to general characteristics of host countries and multinational enterprises' outward investment activities. This may not clearly characterise the specific characteristics of inward FDI in regard to the host country. Thus, we introduce an alternative approach to clarify modes of FDI by investigating the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI. To empirically test whether our approach is applicable, we choose China during the period 1998–2007. We construct a modified gravity equation of bilateral trade while considering spatially lagged interdependence between host, home and third countries. The problem of endogeneity is controlled by applying the system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Our findings are consistent with results in existing studies on modes of outward FDI to China and prove that our approach in dealing with the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI has wide applicability to all modes of FDI. We discover there is strong evidence for statistically significant complementarity between bilateral trade and inward FDI within the aggregate trade data. As we decompose the aggregate trade data into final and intermediate goods, we find the motivation concerning export‐platform and complex vertical FDI is very significant. In addition, as we separate the bilateral partners into developing partners and developed partners, we find both bilateral and multilateral linkages are much stronger with developing partners.     

FDI、工业产出的所有制结构变化与长江三角洲地区工业发展——基于FEDER非均衡框架的分析

本文扩展了FEDER模型,在一个三部门的非均衡框架中对不同所有制工业的外资产出效应进行理论研究,并利用1999-2009年长江三角洲3省市的有关数据进行了检验。本文认为:除了劳动和资本等要素投入以外,不同所有制工业产出结构变化对工业产出增长有不同的拉动作用;外资的行业和贸易方式分布差异、区域的市场化程度等是不同地区、不同所有制企业产出的外资产出弹性差异的主要原因。     

Foreign multinationals in service sectors: A general equilibrium analysis of Brexit

We examine the role of foreign multinationals in service sectors in the context of Brexit, which is assumed to induce an increase in different types of barriers: (a) FDI barriers to multinationals in services; (b) non-tariff barriers to trade; and (c) import tariffs between the UK and the rest of the EU. We use a state-of-the-art Melitz approach in manufactures with multinationals operating in imperfectly competitive service sectors in a multiregional general equilibrium framework. We find that the increased FDI barriers in services explain about one third of the total welfare loss of Brexit. Furthermore, our decomposition analysis (by introducing each type of barriers separately) shows that the barriers against the EU service multinationals in the UK are harmful to British manufacturing sectors because they face a reduced (and more expensive) supply of intermediate services.     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

Foreign Acquisition,Wages and Productivity

This paper studies the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and total factor productivity (TFP) in the years following a takeover by using unique detailed firm‐level data for Sweden for the period 1993–2002. The paper takes particular account of potential endogeneity of the acquisition decision (for example, due to ‘cherry picking’) by implementing an instrumental variable approach and propensity score matching with difference‐in‐difference estimation. Moreover, in line with the recent literature on firm heterogeneity and trade, this paper allows for the acquisition effect to differ depending on whether the targeted firms were domestic multinational or non‐multinationals before the foreign takeover. This paper also allows for the acquisition effect to differ depending on whether the acquisition is horizontal or vertical. Our results show that foreign acquisition has no effects on overall, skilled or less‐skilled wage growth, either in targeted Swedish MNEs or in targeted Swedish non‐MNEs or if the acquisition was motivated by vertical or horizontal motives. However, the results indicate that both targeted Swedish MNEs and non‐MNEs have better growth in TFP after vertical foreign acquisition only but no such impact from horizontal foreign acquisition.     

我国环渤海地区外国直接投资与对外贸易效应的实证研究

本文运用面板数据方法对环渤海地区的对外贸易效应进行了分析,结果表明外国直接投资对整个环渤海地区的对外贸易起到了正向推动作用,环渤海地区的外国直接投资与对外贸易之间存在互补关系。同时分别对该地区7个省市区外国直接投资与对外贸易的关系进行了研究。     

Governance and Globalisation

Unlike the large literature on ‘democracy and trade’, there is a much smaller literature on the effect of the level of democracy in a nation on the level of its foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. These few studies reveal mixed empirical results, and surprisingly only one study has examined bilateral FDI flows. Moreover, few of these studies use multiple governance indicators separating the ‘pluralism’ effect of democratic institutions from the ‘good governance’ effect, there are no studies on democratic institutions’ various effects on the level of FDI relative to trade, and there are no studies of democratic institutions’ various effects on the selection of countries into FDI. We focus on three contributions. First, we examine the simultaneous effects of the World Bank's (six) Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs) – which allow separating the effects of pluralism from those of five other good governance measures – on bilateral trade, FDI and FDI relative to trade using state‐of‐the‐art gravity specifications. Second, we find strong evidence that – after accounting for host governments’ effectiveness in various roles of good governance – a higher level of pluralism as measured by the WGIs’ Voice and Accountability Index reduces trade levels, likely by increasing the ‘voice’ of more protectionist less‐skilled workers, but not FDI levels. Moreover, we find qualitatively different effects of other WGIs – such as political stability – on trade versus FDI flows. Third, we account for firm heterogeneity alongside a large number of zeros in bilateral FDI flows using recent advances in gravity modelling. We distinguish between the (country) intensive and extensive margins and show that pluralism affects FDI inflows negatively at the intensive margin, but positively at the extensive margin.