Vertical Intra‐industry Trade and Fragmentation: An Empirical Examination of the US Auto‐parts Industry

The global auto industry has undergone a significant structural transformation in the last two decades as a result of the international fragmentation of production. This increase in cross‐border production‐sharing activities in the auto industry led to intra‐industry trade (IIT) in auto‐parts. In this study, the extent of IIT in the US auto‐parts industry is examined by decomposing trade into inter‐industry trade, vertical IIT and horizontal IIT. Then the development of vertical IIT is analysed as an indicator of international fragmentation between the US and 29 trading partners. Several country‐specific hypotheses suggested by the fragmentation literature are tested for the period 1989–2006. The results indicate that a substantial portion of IIT in the US auto‐parts industry is vertical IIT, and the econometric results generally support the hypotheses drawn from the theory. In particular, the findings show that the extent of the US vertical IIT is positively correlated with average market size, differences in market size, differences in factor endowments and outward foreign direct investment, while it is negatively correlated with distance and differences in per capita GDP.     

Foreign direct investment productivity premium and foreign affiliates' heterogeneity: A comparison between advanced and emerging market overseas investments in the EU

This paper aims to investigate the existence of productivity heterogeneity among foreign‐owned firms (FOFs) based in the European Union (EU). Using firm‐level data for a sample of FOFs investing in the EU over the period 2006–14, we find that foreign affiliates from advanced countries (AFOFs) show a positive productivity gap compared to foreign affiliates from emerging countries (EFOFs). However, when we consider the type and the motivation of foreign direct investment, our results reveal that, while AFOFs always seem to be more productive than EFOFs in manufacturing sectors, EFOFs appear to enjoy a productivity premium compared to AFOFs in the services, when their activity occurs in the same industry as their parent and they operate in less knowledge‐intensive market sectors.     

Intra-Industry Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean

An increasingly important component of total world trade is intra-industry trade (IIT). The large volume of literature on IIT is reflective of this importance. However, this extensive literature has focused almost completely on explaining the causes of IIT. This focus has left a puzzling gap in the literature. Specifically, it is almost impossible to determine the level of IIT for a particular country or region. Further, there is almost no information on the level of IIT at the industry level either globally or for a region or country. In this article we provide estimates of IIT for the world and for the countries of the Western Hemisphere. Further, we provide estimates of IIT for ten different SITC product categories on the same basis. The findings of the article indicate that in most industries, IIT in Latin America is substantially lower overall than the world average. There are, however, substantial variations observed both by country and by industry. Because the results are the first available for the region as a whole, they should allow researchers to get a better picture of the extent of IIT in Latin America and the Caribbean by country and by industry.     

The Balassa‐Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale,Tradable Goods,Regulated Prices and Other Culprits

This paper analyses the Balassa‐Samuelson (B‐S) framework for the case of Estonia using a unique dataset that consists of a 15‐sectoral breakdown of GDP and a five‐digit level CPI disaggregation with 260 items over the period from 1993 to 2002. Unlike the existing literature, the paper focuses on the following four aspects of the phenomenon: (a) data disaggregation, (b) definition of goods tradability, (c) price regulatedness in services and (d) possible heterogeneity across transition countries. It turns out that the first three aspects do matter and, in addition to this, Estonia appears to bear very specific characteristics when compared with other transition countries. A battery of cointegration techniques (DOLS, ARDL, Johansen) shows that productivity is strongly related to relative prices only when regulated prices are controlled for appropriately in the consumer price index and when country‐specific classification is applied to the open and closed sectors. The B‐S effect contributed to CPI by 1 to 1.5 per cent at the outset of the period and by 0.4 to 0.6 per cent in 2002, whereas its potential long‐run impact is estimated to be 1 to 1.2 per cent. Although real appreciation due to the B‐S effect seems higher in the early 1990s, it explains that better real appreciation occurred in recent years.     

Financial Integration in East Asia: An Empirical Investigation

The central objective of this paper is to empirically evaluate the degree of linkages among East Asian equity and bond markets. Using data from the IMF’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), we find that intra‐East Asian financial asset holdings of four East Asian countries – Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – are larger than the levels predicted by the financial gravity model. However, our analysis suggests that this result is likely to be driven by intra‐regional trade linkages and reflect those linkages. Therefore, the salient implication for regional policymakers is that they should continue to promote intra‐regional financial integration. This paper also aims to analyse the impact of three different types of country‐specific risks – political, economic and financial risks – on investment from the four countries. This analysis yields a clear positive relationship between destination‐country risk, in particular political risk, and capital inflows.     

Donors’ Mechanisms for Financing International and National Public Goods: Loans or Grants?

This paper investigates whether three classes of donors – multilateral organisations, regional institutions and bilateral donors – tailor their mix of grants and loans to reflect international benefit spillovers and recipient‐specific benefits, derived from aid‐funded activities in developing and transition countries. To account for recipient benefit shares, donors should use a greater share of grants when supported activities yield a larger portion of international public benefits. A greater reliance on loans is appropriate when a large portion of recipient‐specific benefits are associated with the assistance. By reflecting recipient benefit shares in the grant‐loan mix, donors’ assistance also promotes allocative efficiency. Using the Credit Reporting System (CRS) database from OECD for 1980–2000, our analysis establishes that various donor classes apply different grant‐loan mixtures when supporting the environment, health, knowledge and governance sectors of recipient countries. We employ analysis of variance and other statistical comparisons of the means to investigate differences among donor classes. We demonstrate that bilateral donors do the best job in tailoring their grant‐loan mix to accord with the extent of international public good benefits embodied in the aid‐supported activity. Multilateral organisations’ grant‐loan mix is intermediate of the three types of donors, with some evidence of them relying more on grants to finance activities that possess a larger share of international public good spillovers. Regional institutions, however, do not discriminate their grant‐loan mix by either sectors or the associated public good spillovers. This finding suggests that regional development banks need to adjust their grant‐loan mix to better account for international benefit spillovers if these institutions are to warrant the increased funds to underwrite regional public goods that they have been seeking. If, however, their mix is institutionally set, then the stakeholders must give these institutions greater flexibility to tailor their grants and loans to who benefits from the aid‐supported public goods. This is the first paper to empirically ascertain whether the grant‐loan mix is tied to the inherent publicness of the aid‐funded activities.     

Intra‐industry Trade,Reconsidered: The Role of Technology Transfer and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper investigates novel determinants of intra‐industry trade (IIT) of late 1990s Japanese trade. Our empirical analysis shows that IIT is increased not only by the similarity of GDP and factor endowment but also by technology transfer via Japanese FDI. In particular, the current high proportion of Japanese IIT with Asian countries can be explained by technology transfer (licensing between headquarters and overseas affiliates) via FDI.     

Do High‐Skill Immigrants trigger High‐Quality Trade?

This paper investigates the links between product quality and the pro‐trade effect of ethnic networks using a large panel on bilateral stocks of immigrants with information for 19 OECD destination countries and 177 origin countries. In line with the approach of Rauch and Trindade, we classify traded goods according to their quality level and separately estimate pro‐trade elasticity of ethnic networks for each subgroup. We allow for heterogeneity of immigrants according to both the level of per capita income of their country of origin and their education level. Our findings suggest that the trend of the pro‐trade effect of immigrants over quality seems to be driven by the North–South specialisation across varieties for both supply and demand. Indeed, ethnic networks mostly facilitate imports of those varieties for which their countries of origin have a comparative advantage; as for exports, ethnic networks are more effective in promoting exports to their homeland of those varieties for which there is relatively higher demand. We show that the same trend applies to products characterised by the same degree of differentiation according to the classification proposed by Rauch and – given their lower liquidity constraints and advantages in human capital – we find a greater impact of high‐skilled migrants consistent across all quality levels.     

FDI and Growth: What Cross‐country Industry Data Say

The theoretical literature has discussed different channels through which foreign direct investments (FDI) promote host country’s economic growth, but empirical analyses have so far been rather inconclusive. In this paper, exploiting the information of a disaggregated data set on a panel of 14 manufacturing sectors for (a sample of) developed and developing countries over the period 1992–2004, we are able to provide robust evidence on the positive and statistically significant growth effect of FDI in recipient countries. Moreover, we find that this effect is stronger in capital‐intensive and technologically advanced sectors. The growth enhancing effect comes primarily from an increase in total factor productivity (TFP) and from factors accumulation. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth and to controlling for potential endogeneity.     

Does it really pay to be good,everywhere? A first step to understand the corporate social and financial performance link in Latin American controversial industries

Most research studying the corporate social performance (CSP)–corporate financial performance (CFP) link has utilized developed country samples. Also, this literature has generally focused on a wide variety of industries, ignoring the fact that certain sectors – such as controversial industries – have graver social and environmental issues. Hence, a gap exists in this tradition when it comes to emerging markets and controversial industries. This paper attempts to fill this void by providing preliminary evidence and insight on the matter. Based on an exploration in six Latin American countries and five controversial industries, we find a negative bidirectional association (or a non‐significant one at best) between CSP and CFP. These results tend to contradict the mainstream conclusion of a positive bidirectional link, suggesting that institutional and market‐level forces play a major role in shaping this relationship.     

As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries

This paper extends the study of current account (CA) reversals by considering the implications for the composition of output and employment. It is shown that decreases in CA deficits imply increases in tradable relative to non‐tradable output and/or declines in investment. The impact of CA ‘rebalancing’ should therefore be expected to vary considerably across sectors of an economy. This intersectoral variation is studied by examining the dynamics of output, employment and prices using data for 55 sectors of the economy during 14 industrial country reversal episodes. The output and employment declines associated with CA reversals are most clearly evident in investment‐related sectors, while sectors related to primary commodities generally perform relatively well following reversals. Reversals are also followed by increases in relative inflation for tradable goods sectors.     

FDI,Productivity and Financial Development

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth by focusing on the complementarities between FDI inflows and financial markets. In our earlier work, we found that FDI is beneficial for growth only if the host country has well‐developed financial institutions. In this paper, we investigate whether this effect operates through factor accumulation and/or improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Factor accumulation – physical and human capital – does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit from FDI. Instead, we find that countries with well‐developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI via TFP improvements. These results are consistent with the recent findings in the growth literature that shows the important role of TFP over factors in explaining cross‐country income differences.     

What Explains Cross‐country Industry Growth Patterns? Trade,Development and the Equity Financing Channel

We test theories that examine how economic and financial development affect cross‐country industry growth patterns. Finance theory suggests that financial development affects growth by lowering the cost of external finance. This has the implication that industries in more finance‐hungry sectors will grow faster in countries where financial markets are more developed. In addition, if financing constraints are lessened when stock market performance is high, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance should grow more rapidly following periods of good stock market performance. Trade and development theories, on the other hand, imply that a country's product‐mix and the pattern of industrial growth reflect which stage of development it is in and its factor endowments. Thus, one implication of trade/development theories is that countries that are close to each other in terms of GDP per capita should have similar patterns of industrial growth. Our tests find support for each of these theories.     

International Growth Spillovers,Geography and Infrastructure

There is significant academic evidence that growth in one country has a positive impact on growth in neighbouring countries. This paper contributes to this literature by analysing the heterogeneous strength of growth spillovers across world regions and by investigating the contribution of transport and communication infrastructure to explain this heterogeneity and promote neighbourhood effects. By defining neighbourhood on the basis of membership of regional trade agreements, we focus on spillovers that work through regional integration and trade. The analysis finds significant evidence for heterogeneity in growth spillovers, which are strong between OECD countries and essentially absent in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). We further find strong interaction between infrastructure and being a landlocked country. This suggests that growth spillovers from regional ‘success stories’ in SSA and other lagging world regions will depend on first strengthening the channels through which such spillovers can spread – most importantly connective infrastructure such as transport and telecommunication links.     

Climate Policy‐induced Investments in Developing Countries: The Implications of Investment Risks

1075 (Christoph Böhringer and Andreas Löschel) International climate policy has assigned the leading role in emissions abatement to the industrialised countries while developing countries remain uncommitted to binding emission reduction targets. However, cooperation between the industrialised and the developing world through joint implementation of emission abatement promises substantial economic gains to both parties. In this context, the policy debate on joint implementation has addressed the question of how investment risks to project‐based emission crediting between industrialised countries and developing countries affect the magnitude and distribution of such gains. In our quantitative analysis, we find that the incorporation of country‐specific investment risks induces rather small changes vis‐à‐vis a situation where investment risks are neglected. Only if investors go for high safety of returns is there a noticeable decline in the overall volume of emission crediting and the associated total economic benefits. While the welfare effects of risk incorporation for industrialised countries are unequivocally negative, the implications across developing countries are ambiguous. Whereas low‐risk developing countries attract higher project volumes and benefit from higher effective prices per emission credit compared to a reference scenario without risk, the opposite applies to high‐risk countries. The – politically undesired – shift in comparative advantage of emission abatement against high‐risk, typically least‐developed, countries may become larger if risk‐averse investors perceive large differences in project‐based risks across countries. In this case, only very cheap mitigation projects in high‐risk countries will be realised, driving down the respective country's benefits from emission crediting to the advantage of low‐risk developing countries.     

An ‘Algorithmic Links with Probabilities’ Concordance for Trademarks with an Application Towards Bilateral IP Flows

Trademarks (TMs) shape the competitive landscape of markets for goods and services in all countries. As a key element of branding, they can inform consumers about the quality and content of goods and services. Yet, researchers are largely unable to conduct rigorous empirical analysis of TMs in the global economy because TM data and economic data are organised differently and cannot be analysed jointly at the industry or sector level. We propose an ‘algorithmic links with probabilities’ (ALP) approach to match TM data to economic data and enable joint analysis with these data. Specifically, we construct a NICE class‐level concordance that maps TM data into trade and industry categories forward and backward. This concordance allows researchers to analyse differences in TM usage across both economic and TM sectors. We apply this ALP concordance for TMs to characterise patterns in TM registrations across countries and industries and to investigate some key determinants of international technology flows by comparing bilateral TM registrations and bilateral patent grants. We find that international patenting and TM flows are jointly determined by trade‐related influences with significant differences in intellectual property usage across industry sectors and income levels.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Competition and Industry Performance

This paper investigates the productivity effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment using industry‐ and country‐level data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1973 to 2001. Controlling for national and international knowledge spillovers we argue that the effects of FDI work through direct compositional effects as well as changing competition in the host country. Our results show that there are, on average, productivity benefits from inward FDI, although we can identify a number of countries which, on aggregate, do not appear to benefit in terms of productivity. On the other hand, a country's stock of outward FDI is, on average, negatively related to productivity. However, again there is substantial heterogeneity in the effect across OECD countries.     

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export‐restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export‐market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three‐way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country‐year, sector‐year and country‐sector dimensions. We document a robust export‐increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.     

Explaining country and cross‐border liquidity commonality in international equity markets

Using a large cross section of intraday data from 25 developed countries, we study commonality in liquidity, both within and across international equity markets, over 15‐minute intervals. Within‐country and cross‐border liquidity commonalities are found to be significant and, after controlling for country and industry effects, relate to such firm‐specific measures as size, bid–ask spread, and the extent of analyst coverage. Additionally, within‐country liquidity commonality is lower for firms with depository receipts cross listed in New York or London. Cross‐border liquidity commonality is particularly high for firms with relatively high actual ownership by foreign institutions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:630–652, 2009