Trade flows and differences between countries

Conclusions In answer to the question of whether trade between countries is motivated by differences or by similarities, the results of this paper indicate that it is predominantly differences and not similarities which lead countries to trade with each other. Greater differences in agriculture land per capita, per capita income, the urban proportion of the population, and temperature results in general in greater trade between two countries, everything else the same. The traditional theory of trade based on relative price differences is, therefore, supported. The exception is the measure of differences in the crude birth rates. Apparently, the more similar are the crude birth rates for two countries, the greater will be the amount of trade. This exception could arise from multicollinearity, from crude birth rate differences having effects systematically opposite to other differences, or from Linder's hypothesis that trade is most intensive between similar countries. The author is indebted to Professors Edward Ames, Niels Bolwig, J?rgen Gelting, Svend Hylleberg, Chung Lee, Delbert Snider and Charles Staley for helpful comments. Remaining errors are the author's responsibility.     

Does income affect fertility or does fertility affect income?

"This paper tests for the dynamic causal connection between real income per capita and the birth rate for a subset of developing countries. These countries are Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Uruguay. Our empirical findings show that, for the historical period under review, in several countries real income per capita affected the birth rate. Virtually no evidence is found to support the hypothesis that the birth rate affected real income per capita."     

Demographic consequences of maternal-leave programs in industrial countries: evidence from fixed-effects models

The authors measure the effects of paid maternity leave upon infant mortality, the labor force participation of women during their prime childbearing years, and fertility rates. To reach their conclusions, they constructed a simultaneous-equations model using the individual fixed-effects method and a data set comprising 17 OECD countries and four time periods. The extension of maternal leave programs, measured in terms of duration of paid leave, is shown to reduce infant mortality, to raise rates of labor force participation for women in the prime childbearing ages, and to increase birth rates. The direct plus indirect impacts of extending maternity leave programs, as revealed by the reduced-form parameters of the authors' models, however, produce a different picture. The total impacts upon both infant mortality and female labor force participation conform closely to the structural estimates, but the impact upon birth rates almost disappears. It seems that the indirect effects of the maternal leave variable, via infant mortality and women's labor force participation, offset the directly pronatal influence. From a policy perspective, the benefits of paid maternal leave programs would seem to be unconditionally positive with respect to lowering infant mortality, and also positive with respect to raising female labor force participation. One should not, however, expect higher birth rates from such programs. The findings also suggest that maternal leave programs can facilitate some increases in women's labor force participation without incurring the reductions in fertility which would otherwise be experienced.     

Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century

A number of writers have recently questioned whether labor productivity or per capita incomes were ever higher in the United Kingdom than in the United States. This paper focuses on aggregate and sectoral labor productivity in the two countries during the nineteenth century. We build on earlier work by Broadberry to push comparative productivity estimates back to 1840 based on a time series projection from a 1910 benchmark and checked against a benchmark estimate for 1850. The results indicate that labor productivity in agriculture was broadly equal in the two countries, and that the United States had a substantial labor productivity lead in industry as early as 1840, while the United Kingdom was ahead in services. Hence aggregate labor productivity and per capita incomes were higher in the United Kingdom in the mid-nineteenth century, particularly since the United States had a larger share of the labor force in low value-added agriculture and a smaller share of the population in the labor force.     

Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Africa*

Abstract: This paper provides econometric evidence linking African countries’ per capita total as well as government health expenditures and per capita income to two health outcomes: infant mortality and under‐five mortality. This relationship is examined using data from 47 African countries between 1999 and 2004. Health expenditures have a statistically significant negative effect on infant and under‐five mortality rates. The magnitude of our elasticity estimates are in consonance to those reported in the literature. For African countries, our results imply that total health expenditures (as well as the public component) are certainly important contributors to health outcomes. In addition, we find that both infant and under‐five mortality are positively and significantly associated with sub‐Saharan Africa. The reverse is true for North Africa. While ethnolinguistic fractionalization and HIV prevalence positively and significantly affect the health outcomes, higher numbers of physicians and female literacy significantly reduce these health outcomes. These results have important implications for attaining the targets envisioned by the Millennium Development Goals. The data implications are also discussed.     

Basic human needs: The plateau curve

The satisfaction of basic human needs in developing countries follows a nonlinear curve relative to per capita income, asymptotically approaching a limiting level. Within this general relationship, some countries are more ‘efficient’ than others in improving basic needs at lower per capita income levels. Infant mortality rates in 116 countries, from 1950 to 1980, are analyzed to identify factors affecting a country's efficiency in reaching infant mortality targets relative to its Gross Domestic Product per capita. The determinants of efficiency include export structure, internal distribution, late development and access to education. Implications for development policy are discussed.     

经济驱动下的人口省际流动研究——以安徽为例

安徽省人口跨省流动具有规模大、流向集中、备研究单元人口省际净流出规模和比重差异明显的特点。文章利用安徽省2001—2012年以县（地级市区）为单元的面板数据,以各研究单元净流出率为图变量,以流出地和流入地人均GDP比值为自变量,利用回归分析方法构建定量模型。研究表明：两者呈指数递减关系,随着流出地和流入地人均GDP比值升高,各研究单元净流出率呈指数趋势下降;利用历史分析方法发现2001年、2004年、2009年、2012年回归系数绝对值在下降．表明随着时间推移,人口流动对经济因子的敏感性在降低;通过横断面分析发现经济欠发达的皖北地区人口流动对经济因子的敏感性大于经济发达的皖南地区。研究还表明人口流动是区域发展差距导致,从财政、土地、基础设施、税收、管理服务方面创造承接转移产业和发展内生产业的积极条件,是提高发展中地区经济发展水平,留住发展要素,吸引人口回流的重要途径。     

The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence

"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.     

The aging tax on potential growth in Asia

Population aging is becoming a prominent issue in Asia, especially for developing countries where demographic changes have asserted a downward pressure on the rate of growth. This paper refers to such potential unwanted effects as an “aging tax” and analytically examines them from a neoclassical perspective, using a Diamond-type overlapping generations model with endogenous retirement, survival rate, and old-age productivity. Based on this setup, negative impacts exist if too many old workers that are sufficiently unproductive choose to defer retirement under the aging pressure, which drains resources from future generations. Numerical simulations show that an aging tax can reduce the potential per capita growth rate (technology-adjusted) by up to 0.12 percentage points annually for some countries in Asia. Our results highlight that countries with sufficiently large labor shares (due to a high ratio of self-employment or a manual labor-centric production) and inadequate educational attainment are potentially the most sensitive and vulnerable to population aging.     

The effects of social security on population and output growth

"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."     

新疆人口分布与土地资源承载力协调的量化评价与分析

本文采用相对资源承载力的思路和分析方法,通过对新疆不同区域和县市人口分布与土地资源承载力的分析,得出：新疆协调较好的区域和县市占比较高;目前新疆人口土地资源承载力虽属相对富裕状态,但有趋向临界值的态势。按照发达国家的经验,随着人口增长和经济发展,人均粮食消耗量会不断增加,因此,新疆要努力提高土地产出率,控制人口增长,使社会经济协调发展。     

An Examination of Labor Productivity Growth and Structural Changes in the Singapore Labor Force*

This paper ?rst examines the sources of growth in the Singapore economy by decomposing real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth into two components. It is found that, for the period 1974–1999, labor productivity was a signi?cant source of economic growth in Singapore. Conversely, the contribution of the rate of change in employment ratio was only of secondary importance. On further decomposition, the rate of change in employment ratio was due mainly to rate of change in population age‐structure ratio and rate of change in labor‐force participation rate. Growth patterns of the labor force were examined after it has been segregated according to gender, citizenship and age group independently. Labor productivity growth was highest in the transport, storage and communication sector, while labor productivity growth was lowest in the ?nancial, insurance, real estate and business services sector.     

Population dynamics and economic growth in China

This paper focuses on two major elements of China's population dynamics—the rising proportion of workers in the population and the shift of rural workers from agriculture into industry and services—in a provincial-level analysis of per capita income and productivity growth during the last three decades. We measure the ‘mechanical’ contributions of these dynamics to per capita income as revealed by growth decompositions, before assessing the determinants of per capita income and productivity growth in a series of regressions that include the growth of the working-age to total population (WAP) ratio and a measure of sectoral employment change. Our results indicate that sectoral change has made a significant positive contribution to both per capita income growth and aggregate productivity growth, stemming from its positive impact on agricultural productivity growth—as predicted by the Lewisian dual economy model. However, the negative impact of sectoral change on productivity growth in the industrial and service sectors, combined with the negative impact of growth of the WAP ratio on both per capita income and aggregate productivity growth, suggests that the benefits of China's population dynamics during the last three decades have been overstated.     

Why was Australia so rich?

Between 1870 and 1890 Australian incomes per capita were 40 percent or more above those in the United States. About half this gap is attributable to Australia’s higher labor input per capita, and half to its higher labor productivity. The higher labor input is due in part to favorable demographic attributes and partly to a favorable workforce participation rate. The higher productivity results from an advantageous natural resource endowment. By 1914 the income lead over the U.S. had all but disappeared due to declines in Australia’s advantages both in labor input per capita and in labor productivity.     

Fertility,income distribution,and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence

The authors perform discriminatory, empirical tests of a theoretical model that predicts that family size adversely affects output per capita and nonsteady state growth rates. Neoclassical models posit that adverse output and nonsteady growth rates are affected by labor force growth (LFG) or population growth (PG). This study tests whether family size (FS) will be more significant than LFG or PG in explaining differences in economic growth (EG) rates across countries during 1960-88. A proxy variable for the public education system was used to separate government interventions on human capital formation from market forces. Data were obtained for 73 countries, which exclude centrally planned economies, oil-producing countries, and those with less than 1 million population. The empirical test is run with 58-country, 45-country, and 96-country samples to test for robustness and reliability. The empirical test supports the theoretical model. It demonstrates that equal distribution of income and smaller FS enhance EG. With income inequality, the effect of FS was significant, and the effect of the LFG rate or PG rate was insignificant. With a given FS, LFG was positively correlated with EG. A reduction of the net fertility rate by one point would increase the worker output growth rate by 0.25%, and the differences in growth rates between high- and low-fertility countries would be 1%. An increase in the income share of the bottom 60% would increase the growth rate of worker output by about 1%. Higher investments in public or private education would be conducive to growth.     

Patterns of infant mortality in rural England and Wales, 1850–1910†

The study of nineteenth‐century infant mortality in Britain has neglected the rural dimension to a surprising degree. This article maps the change in infant mortality rate (IMR) between the 1850s and the 1900s at registration district (RD) level. Latent trajectory analysis, a longitudinal model‐based clustering method, is used to identify the clusters into which rural RDs fell, based on their IMR trajectories. Relationships between IMR and population density, fertility, female tuberculosis mortality, female illiteracy, male agricultural wages, and distance from London are examined in a longitudinal study. The tuberculosis (maternal health), illiteracy (education), and distance variables had the most effect. IMR responded most strongly to improving health and education in the east, less in the central area, and least in the north and west. The eastern zone's higher‐than‐average mid‐century infant mortality therefore declined faster than the national average. A central and southern zone had slightly lower IMR in mid‐century but did not keep up with the rate of decline in the east. The peripheral north and west had the lowest mid‐century rates but their decline was overtaken by the other zones. The interpretation of these findings and their relevance to the wider study of infant mortality are discussed.     

国家重点生态功能区人口发展的现状、问题与对策研究

国家重点生态功能区是关系到全国生态环境安全的敏感性区域,其中人口因素是经济社会发展的关键性因素.以全国重点生态功能区为研究范围,以区域内县域为分析单位,对2007—2018年数据进行分析.结果表明,重点生态功能区区域人口增长率、人口城镇化水平、人均GDP、人均财政收入和人均受教育程度显著低于全国平均水平;区域人口主要分布于中西部地区,且少数民族人口多,为人口净迁出区,劳动力人口占比较低.区域存在人口总量不利于生态环境保护、城镇发展水平低、外出打工农民比例大、农业人口迁移意愿不强烈、劳动力素质低、区域贫困人口多等问题.最后,针对重点生态功能区人口的发展问题提出对策建议,为实现区域人口的均衡发展提供借鉴和参考.     

Farm size,land yields and the agricultural production function: An analysis for fifteen developing countries

The paper analyzes the relationship between factor inputs, land yields and labor productivity for farms of different size on the basis of FAO farm management data for 15 developing countries. For all but three countries a strong negative correlation is found between farm size on the one side, and factor inputs and yields per hectare on the other. The fitting of unconstrained production functions to the above data suggests that in only few cases the decline in yields for increasing farm size can be attributed to decreasing returns to scale. The higher yields observed in small farms are mainly to be ascribed to higher factor inputs and to a more intensive use of land. Therefore, where conspicuous labor surpluses exist, the superiority of small farming provides solid arguments in favor of land redistribution. Such an agrarian reform would determine higher output, higher labor absorption and a more equitable income distribution, thus contributing in a decisive manner to the alleviation of rural poverty. The paper also provides estimates of cross-sectional production functions for the 15 countries analyzed. Empirical relations are found between the output elasticities of land, labor and intermediate inputs and physical indicators of their scarcity. The paper concludes by proposing a simple method for deriving a long-term production function for agriculture.     

Mortality, interest rates, investment, and agricultural production in 18th century England

This paper shows that the exogenous decline of adult mortality at the end of the 17th century can be one of the causes driving both the decline of interest rate and the increase in agricultural production per acre in pre-industrial England. Following the intuition of the life-cycle hypothesis, I claim that the increase in adult life expectancy must have implied less farmer impatience and it could have caused more investment in nitrogen stock and land fertility, the increase in agricultural land, and higher production per acre. I analyze this dynamic interaction using an overlapping generations model and show that the evolution of agricultural production and capital rates of return predicted by the model coincide fairly well with their empirical pattern.     

中国粮食主产区空间格局变迁及影响因素探析

本文利用面板数据对影响中国粮食主产区空间格局变迁的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:人均耕地面积、非农收入比重、经济效益比、粮食单产、复种指数、肉类产量所反映的自然资源禀赋、种粮比较效益、农业科技进步、社会需求变化都是影响中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的因素。其中人均耕地面积和非农收入比重的影响尤为突出。