实际股票收益率与通货膨胀率关系的实证研究

股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系至今仍无定论.采用1991年1月到2011年8月的月度数据,运用VAR模型对我国的股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行实证分析,结果发现不论是预期的通货膨胀还是非预期的通货膨胀与股票实际收益率都是负相关关系.表明费雪效应在我国不成立,股票并不是对冲通货膨胀风险的理想工具.     

股票收益率与通胀关系的实证研究

本文基于费雪理论,使用1991-2010年的月度数据对中国股市的收益率与通货膨胀率之间的关系进行实证分析,并进一步检验各行业股票对通胀风险的防御效果。研究结果表明,总体上股票收益率与通胀率显著负相关,即股票不是持续高通胀时期的有效保值工具,但是在材料、医药和消费等行业仍具有较好的通胀防御效果。     

公司规模与股票收益率关系的实证研究

本文通过对1994-2004年中国所有上市公司的流通股规模、总市值规模与股票收益率的关系运用截面回归的方法进行实证研究,发现无论上市公司的流通股规模还是总市值规模都与股票的收益率呈负相关关系,而且在剔除风险因素以后,公司规模仍然与异常收益率呈负相关关系,且具有统计上的显著性。中国股市存在小公司效应。这说明中国股票市场不是半强有效的。     

通货膨胀对上市公司股票收益率的影响研究

通货膨胀率是否会对股票收益率产生影响,产生怎样的影响都备受金融界学者专家的关注,但却没有一致的定论,并且国内的研究也较少。股票收益能否抵御通货膨胀,股票投资是否能起到保值、增值的作用也是被投资者所关注的。统计表明,上证180指数的流通市值占到沪市流通市值的50%,成交金额占比也达到47%。因此,本文选取上证180作为研究样本,运用2001~2014年的上市公司数据和资料,借鉴国内外相关研究的最新成果,建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数,分析通货膨胀率与股票收益率以及其他广义控制变量之间的脉冲响应特性。实证研究表明:在该阶段我国股票收益率与通货膨胀之间存在着较为明显的正相关关系,同时通货膨胀率对流通性强、市场代表性强以及规模较大、竞争力较强的上市公司股票收益率的影响更大,正相关关系更为明显。     

疫情冲击下组织冗余对股票收益率的影响研究

本文以2019年12月至2020年3月中国A股上市企业为样本,分析组织冗余对疫情冲击下股票收益率的影响.研究发现,疫情发生后上市公司的股票收益率普遍下降,而组织冗余作为调节变量,缓解了疫情对股票收益率的冲击;这一效应在非国有企业中尤为明显.并且,当组织冗余水平达到当年同行业的49％时,这一缓冲作用才得以显现.由此可见,企业内部适当的冗余资源对有效防范、应对突发性的灾难事件具有重要意义.     

疫情冲击下组织冗余对股票收益率的影响研究

本文以2019年12月至2020年3月中国A股上市企业为样本,分析组织冗余对疫情冲击下股票收益率的影响.研究发现,疫情发生后上市公司的股票收益率普遍下降,而组织冗余作为调节变量,缓解了疫情对股票收益率的冲击;这一效应在非国有企业中尤为明显.并且,当组织冗余水平达到当年同行业的49％时,这一缓冲作用才得以显现.由此可见,企业内部适当的冗余资源对有效防范、应对突发性的灾难事件具有重要意义.     

可转换债券收益率与基础股票收益率的动态关系研究

本文分转股前和转股后两个阶段,对比研究我国可转债收益率与基础股票收益率的动态关系。研究发现,可转债收益率与股票收益率在转股前后两个阶段,在相关性、收益率水平及波动性方面均存在明显变化。此外,通过以工行可转债和中行可转债为例进行实证研究发现,在转股期前后,可转债收益率和股票收益率之间均存在长期均衡关系,且误差修正效果显著。     

我国股市中高与低市盈率股票收益率的实证分析

市盈率是最常用的用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一。高市盈率股票和低市盈率股票都有其存在的道理,特别是在经济高速发展中的中国。试图通过对上海证券市场2007年至2011年高市盈率股票与低市盈率股票收益率的实证研究,以期得出相关投资建议。最终本研究发现,从长期投资来看,如果分散投资,那么投资于高市盈率股票和投资于低市盈率股票的收益并无明显差异。     

储蓄存款变动率与股票收益率关系的实证分析

本文对2003年2月至2010年7月的各种银行存款变动率与股票收益率之间的关系进行了计量经济分析,发现:1.居民定期存款变动率与股票收益率呈负相关关系.2.2003年2月至2007年6月股票收益率与企事业活期存款变动率呈负相关,而2007年7月至2010年7月,却呈正相关关系,并且格兰杰因果关系在1%水平上显著,说明前者对后者存在单向的影响关系.这一结果在一定程度上可以解释股票全流通后大小非出货套现的行为.     

上市公司会计信息与股票超额收益率关系的实证研究

从上市公司年报信息出发,本文首先借助FSCORE方法建立了对上市公司会计信息的综合分析评价方法,随后以上海证券交易所A股上市公司1998年4月至2007年4月的数据进行实证研究,分析上市公司会计信息综合评价所获分数的高低与公司股票前后连续三年的超额收益率的相关关系。研究结果表明：上市公司的T年年报会计信息综合评估得分与T-1年和T＋1年公司股果的超额收益率都没有显著的相关关系,而与当年的公司股票的超额收益率呈现出显著的正相关关系,该结论对大中规模公司仍然显著。     

Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market

We analyze the relationship of high inflation and interest rates with stock returns in Brazil from May 1986 to May 2011, during which Brazil experienced subperiods of both high inflation (May 1986-June 1994) and relative monetary stability (July 1994-May 2011). The result in the total period is dominated by high inflation volatility, and the findings suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. During the high-inflation subperiod, interest rates are relevant to explain future changes in inflation and stock returns. Under low inflation, movements in interest rates are better anticipated by equity investors, suggesting higher market efficiency than in high-inflation circumstances.     

Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries

This paper investigates the statistical relationship between stock prices and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific-Basin. On balance, regression analysis on the nine markets shows negative relationships between stock returns in real terms and inflation in the short run, while co-integration tests on the same markets display a positive relationship between the same variables over the long run. The time path of the response of stock prices plotted against corresponding changes in consumer price indices validates this dichotomy in time-related response patterns of stock prices to inflation; namely, a blip of negative responses at the beginning changes to a positive response over a longer period of time. Stock prices in Asia, like those in the U.S. and Europe, appear to reflect a time-varying memory associated with inflation shocks that make stock portfolios a reasonably good hedge against inflation in the long run.     

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Industry Stock Returns

Recent studies identify stock return patterns associated with changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy. We find that these return patterns prevail across sixteen industry stock indices. However, significant cross-industry variation exists as the apparel industry exhibits mean annual returns that are 50% higher under an expansive Fed policy than under a restrictive policy, while the same return difference for the oil industry is only 20%. This cross-industry variation suggests that monetary conditions may be used by investors to estimate different expected returns across industries. Furthermore, the findings support the view that monetary considerations should be considered in ex ante asset pricing models such as the CAPM.     

人民币汇率波动与中国股票价格报酬之间的相关性——基于2005年至2007年的实证分析

本文以2005年7月21日至2007年9月18日的中国股价与人民币兑美元的名义汇率数据,利用GARCH模型来探讨在这段时间内人民币汇率波动对中国股票价格报酬的影响。实证结果得知,在这段时间内人民币兑美元名义汇率波动是负向影响中国股票价格报酬的,也符合有价证券余额理论的主张;汇率市场对股票市场的影响在宏观决策中应予以高度重视。     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.     

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

This article examines whether movements in economic factors dictated by the dividend discount model can explain broad movements in stock returns over the business cycle. As anticipated, stock returns decrease throughout economic expansions and become negative during the first half of recessions. Returns are largest during the second half of recessions, suggesting an important role for expected earnings. These results are consistent with the notion that expected stock returns vary inversely with economic conditions, yet suggest that realized returns are especially poor indicators of expected returns prior to turning points in the business cycle.     

Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply,Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances

This paper identifies sources of asset returns (stock returns and interest rates) and inflation relations. We find that the relation between asset returns and inflation is driven by three types of disturbances to the economy. We interpret them as due to supply disturbances and two types of demand—monetary and fiscal—disturbances. In post-war U.S. data, supply and fiscal disturbances drive a negative stock return-inflation relation, whereas monetary disturbances generate a positive stock return-inflation relation. However, all three types of disturbances generate a negative interest rate-inflation relation. Depending on the interaction of the three types of shocks, we observe different correlations between asset returns and inflation in post- and pre-World War II U.S. data.     

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the relation between investor sentiment and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests. The sample period extends from July 1997 to June 2005. In the VAR models, stock portfolio returns and investor sentiment proxies are used as endogenous variables. Two dummy variables accounting for natural and economic crises are used as exogenous variables. The analysis results suggest that, excepting shares of equity issues in aggregate issues, stock portfolio returns seem to affect all investor sentiment proxies, namely closed-end fund discount, mutual fund flows, odd-lot sales-to-purchases ratio, and repo holdings of mutual funds. Investor sentiment does not appear to forecast future stock returns; only the turnover ratio of the stock market seems to have forecasting potential.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.