AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND

Full integration of agriculture into the GATT framework is shown to be the most fruitful approach to resolve agricultural trade problems and to ensure an overall success of the Uruguay Round. Full integration implies, however, that certain widely discussed ideas for agricultural trade reform, such as producer subsidy equivalents, will be less useful. An alternative proposal for trade reform is outlined which is applicable across all sectors and hence would better promote full integration of agriculture into GATT.     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

REBALANCING EC CEREALS PROTECTION AND THE GATT URUGUAY ROUND

This paper considers the proposals put forward by the EC at the GATT Uruguay Round in December 1990. The EC's objective of rebalancing the Common Agricultural Policy in the context of a partial liberalisation of agricultural support on the world cereals market is assessed, as is the choice of base year from which liberalisation would have been initiated. The US's proposal for more significant reduction in agricultural support is also considered. The results show that the EC would not necessarily have benefited from rebalancing, since the effects would have depended on the choice of base period. For example, with 1986 (1988) as the base year, net welfare changes would have been 20 (50) percent higher (lower) with rebalancing, relative to the case without. Not surprisingly, the more substantial liberalisation proposed by the US would have resulted in greater net welfare gains even if rebalancing was conceded by the US.     

ON THE NEGLECT OF DYNAMICS,RISK AND MARKET INSULATION IN THE ANALYSIS OF URUGUAY ROUND FOOD TRADE REFORMS*

The substantial investment in models of international food markets prior to and during the Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations has been a mixed blessing so far as the prospects for reform are concerned. At worst, results from these models have misled the negotiations because they have most often ignored a primary concern lending domestic political support to food market interventions, namely the avoidance of risks borne of dependence on international markets. In this paper the reasons for market insulating policies are reviewed and their links with protection elucidated. Some errors that have stemmed from the application of 'standard' but inappropriate models are noted. Finally, the implications of extending the standard method to include dynamic behaviour and market insulating policies are examined.     

THE RETURNS FROM RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIAN BROADACRE AGRICULTURE*

Many people share the view that too little is invested in R & D in agriculture. The relationship between several measures of productivity and research expenditure was estimated using data from ABARE's surveys of broadacre industries and a new data series on R & D expenditure for the period 1953 to 1988. The internal rate of return to research was estimated to be in the range of 15 to 40 percent which does not provide strong evidence that Australia is either under- or over-investing in public research.     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE: COMMENT

Bardsley and Harris (1987) test empirically the effects of changes In deterministic wealth and random income on the measure partial risk aversion. The paper, which is otherwise well written, failed to impose the relationship between the two effects and estimated them independently. Consequently, inconsistent estimates were derived for the elasticities of the measure of partial risk aversion with respect to wealth and to income. The purpose of this comment is to derive that relationship theoretically and to point out the resulting inconsistencies in the original paper.     

大力发展特色农业 增强四川农产品市场竞争力

特色农业是实现资源优势、产品优势和市场优势有机结合的最佳选择.文章阐述了四川省发展特色农业的意义;分析了发展特色农业的有利条件,以及发展特色农业的基本思路、重点主导产品、发展目标和设想;最后以9个方面论述了发展特色农业的政策措施.     

加快我国由农业大国向农业强国转变的战略思考和工作举措

[目的]提高我国农业综合效益和竞争力,实现由农业大国向农业强国的转变,是新时代习近平总书记强农强国思想的重要论断,也是实现我国第二个百年目标的战略要求以及实施乡村振兴战略的历史使命。[方法]遵照习近平总书记的这一重大时代命题,通过深入领会习近平总书记关于强农强国的一系列重要论述精神,准确把握其理论逻辑、历史教训、现实矛盾、中外经验以及强国要求等战略思想,系统分析了战略判断、战略重点、战略评估等战略要素。[结果]中国强农业必须强,农业强粮食必须强,粮食强农民收入必须高,农民收入高必须以逐步建成现代化农业经济体系为保障。[结论]必须以农业供给侧结构性改革为主线,以抓好粮食生产为首要任务,以增加农民收入为中心任务,加速农业发展方式向精准农业方式以及数字农业经济体系转变,加快建成现代化农业经济体系。当前要做好5方面工作:做好"两区"划建管工作,让各地政府种好自己的"责任田";培育新型经营主体发展适度规模经营,提高农民种粮的规模效益;以五大振兴和"七个之路"为乡村振兴战略总布局,扎实推进乡村全面振兴;加快向数字农业发展方式转变,提高我国绿色兴农和质量兴农水平;构建现代化农业经济体系,提高我国农业发展的国际竞争力。     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE*

A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method. This consistency suggests that the partial risk aversion coefficient is a relatively robust measure of attitudes to risk.     

搞好特色农产品区域布局 推进农业产业化进程

阐述了唐山市特色农产品生产及产业化经营现状,发展特色农产品优势和制约因素,提出了板栗、奶牛、瘦肉型猪、食用菌、海珍品等重点特色农产品发展布局及发展设想,最后提出主要措施.该文还认为,要搞好特色农产品区域布局,必须采取依托龙头带动,实施品牌战略等4项措施.     

A MICRO-ECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN BRITISH AGRICULTURE

Most of the work undertaken on the estimation of supply response in U. K. agriculture has been based on the analysis of time-series data. However, there are a number of problems associated with an analysis of aggregate supply response for British agriculture based on time-series analysis alone. This paper reports on an alternative supply response model being developed at Newcastle in which estimates of aggregate supply levels are built up from optimal programmes for a set of representative farms.     

泉州市2005～2010年农业资源区划发展规划

在分析福建省泉州市农业资源区划发展现状的基础上,提出了泉州市2005～2010年农业资源区划工作的指导思想、发展目标、工作重点和保障措施,以期促进泉州市农业资源区划工作在服务手段、服务对象和服务水平上有较大转变和提高。     

从试区实践论燕山农业可持续发展的道路

阐述了燕山农业可持续发展战略,即农业综合发展、生态优化的现代农业发展战略,提出该试区农业可持续发展战略目标的重点、步骤和措施;总结了4条燕山农业可持续发展试区的经验;提出林牧发展、生态优化、旅游业蓬勃兴起,创造良好的科技环境等前景。     

运用农业资源区划成果 实现农业区域合理布局

从农业生产的地域分工出发,阐述了尤溪县农业区域结构调整现状与存在问题,进而提出了加快区域结构调整,实现优势农产品区域合理布局,抓好科技、资金、市场配套等对策.