INFORMATION, RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC MODELLING

Book reivewed in this article:
Thomas J. Sargent (1987) Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory.
M. Hashem Pesaran (1987) The Limits to Rational Expectations.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

PLATEAUED MANAGERS: THEIR NEED GRATIFICATIONS AND THEIR EFFORT-PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS [I]

The repeal of mandatory retirement laws will result in new pressures on organizations to motivate and satisfy those managers who have reached their ceiling in the organization. This study compares the satisfaction and motivation (in terms of performance-reward instrumentalities) of a group of plateaued and non-plateaued managers. This was done both with and without controlling for the managers age. Age, rather than plateauing, seemed to be implicated in any observed differences. We found that older managers reported lower satisfaction with future organizational rewards and see stronger instrumentalities for mentoring type activities then do their younger colleagues.     

A DOUBLE LENGTH REGRESSION COMPUTATION METHOD FOR THE 2SGLS ESTIMATOR OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MODELS

ABSTRACT This paper extends a matrix inverse result of Higgins and presents a new unified double length regression method to calculate the two-step generalised least squares estimators of two types of rational expectations model with current anticipated and unanticipated components. The estimator can be applied directly in most of the standard econometric computer packages such as PC-Give and Microfit.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, MANAGERIAL ROLE EXPECTATIONS AND MANAGERS' WORK ACTIVITIES

Having demonstrated the absence in the literature of an adequate conceptual treatment or empirical examination of the substantive relationship between managerial work, managers' role expectations and forms of organizational structure, the paper reports the findings of a multimethod comparative case study of this relationship in four organizations from the hotel and retail sectors in Zimbabwe. Focusing on the differences between centralized organizations where unit operations are tightly regulated and decentralized organizations where unit operating autonomy is coupled with performance controls, the findings indicate that organizational structure impinges primarily upon the formal management division of labour, more weakly upon the role expectations surrounding unit managers and in only limited ways upon their work activities, with the effect of organizational differences co-existing with and refracted by common work characteristics and inter-industry differences. Although decentralization gave rise to unit manager jobs with more formal autonomy, broader responsibilities, greater pressure to attend to unit performance rather than monitoring work processes, and an obligation to operate in more complex networks, managers were no more free of constraints than were those in more centralized organizations and operated in similar ways, with an emphasis on day-to-day administration and routine staffing matters.