Do Tighter Loan Covenants Signal Improved Future Corporate Results? The Case of Performance Pricing Covenants

Covenants in corporate bonds and loan agreements mitigate agency conflicts between borrowers and lenders and may provide a signal of borrower quality to help resolve information asymmetry. Performance pricing covenants in bank loans specify automatic adjustments to loan spreads based on borrowers’ subsequent performance. Our covenant signaling framework views interest‐decreasing performance pricing as a tight covenant associated with borrowers’ private information on improved future performance accompanied by reduced credit risk. This positive signal is associated with larger positive loan announcement returns and greater improvements in future borrower performance. Further, in addition to signaling value, we find that the spread impact of this class of covenant also depends on its option value and reduction in transaction costs.     

Attitudinal Asymmetries and the Lender-Borrower Relationship: Survey Results on Farm Lending in Shandong,China

This paper addresses the problem of social interactions and the lender-borrower relationship by measuring the disconnect between borrowers and lenders across a wide range of lending-related attributes. The degree by which lenders and borrowers connect disconnect depends on whether lenders’ and borrowers’ perceptions across these attributes are symmetric or asymmetric. We compare field survey results from 120 loan officers at Rural Credit Cooperatives (RCCs) in China’s coastal Shandong province, and pair them with an existing survey on identical questions to 394 farm households in the same region. Pairing lenders’ perception towards borrowers regarding RCC microcredit lending mechanism, against borrowers’ perception towards lenders and how themselves were perceived by lenders in the same regards, we observe on many dimensions a disconnect between them in the context of lenders’ “care” towards borrowers, loan rejection, memberships of RCC and group guarantee, lending concerns, cost of borrowing, reasons for default, credit rationing, and lending preferences. This research provides financial institutions with outreach mechanisms to borrowers, while also training lenders to borrowers’ sensitivities.     

Price Discovery and Dissemination of Private Information by Loan Syndicate Participants

We delineate key channels through which flows of confidential information to loan syndicate participants impact the dynamics of information arrival in prices. We isolate the timing of private information flows by estimating the speed of price discovery over quarterly earnings cycles in both secondary syndicated loan and equity markets. We identify borrowers disseminating private information to lenders relatively early in the cycle with firms exhibiting relatively early price discovery in the secondary loan market, documenting that price discovery is faster for loans subject to financial covenants, particularly earnings‐based covenants; for borrowers who experience covenant violations; for borrowers with high credit risk; and for loans syndicated by relationship‐based lenders or highly reputable lead arrangers. We then ask whether early access to private information in the loan market accelerates the speed of information arrival in stock prices. We document that the stock returns of firms identified with earlier private information dissemination to lenders indeed exhibit faster price discovery in the stock market, but only when institutional investors are involved in the firm's syndicated loans. Further, the positive relation between institutional lending and the speed of stock price discovery is more pronounced in relatively weak public disclosure environments. These results are consistent with institutional lenders systematically exploiting confidential syndicate information via trading in the equity market.     

Learning by lending

This paper studies bank learning through repeated interactions with borrowers from a new perspective. To understand learning by lending, we adapt a methodology from labor economics to analyze how loan contract terms evolve as banks acquire new information about borrowers. We construct “proxy” variables for this information using data from borrowers’ out-of-sample, future credit performance. Due to the timing of their construction, banks could not have used these variables directly to price loans. We nonetheless find that these proxies increasingly predict loan prices as relationships progress, even after controlling for possible omitted variable bias. Our methodology provides strong evidence that: (a) bank learning affects loan prices, and (b) relationship benefits are heterogeneous. In particular, higher quality borrowers face differentially lower spreads as their relationship with lenders develop – and banks learn about their quality – while lower quality borrowers see loan prices increase and their loan amounts fall. We further find suggestive evidence that banks incorporate CEO-specific information into loan prices.     

Credit Relationships: Evidence from Experiments with Real Bankers

We experimentally examine to what extent long‐term “lender–borrower” relationships mitigate moral hazard. The originality of our research lies in recruiting not only students but also commercial and social bankers. The opportunity to engage in bilateral long‐term relationships mitigates the repayment problem. Lenders take advantage of their long‐term situation by increasing their rates. Consequently, borrowers are incited to take more risk. Improving information disclosure ameliorates the repayment but does not incite lenders to offer more credits. Social bankers exhibit a higher probability of granting a loan and make fairer credit offers to borrowers than the other subject pools do.     

Financial Statements as Monitoring Mechanisms: Evidence from Small Commercial Loans

Using a data set that records banks’ ongoing requests of information from small commercial borrowers, we examine when banks use financial statements to monitor borrowers after loan origination. We find that banks request financial statements for half the loans and this variation is related to borrower credit risk, relationship length, collateral, and the provision of business tax returns, but in complex ways. The relation between borrower risk and financial statement requests has an inverted U‐shape; and tax returns can be both substitutes and complements to financial statements, conditional on borrower characteristics and the degree of bank–borrower information asymmetry. Frequent financial reporting is used to monitor collateral, but only for non–real estate loans and only when the collateral is easily accessible to lenders. Collectively, our results provide novel evidence of a fundamental information demand for financial reporting in monitoring small commercial borrowers and a specific channel through which banks fulfill their role as delegated monitors.     

The Cross‐Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton ( 1974 ): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk‐neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity returns and default probabilities—reported in previous studies.     

Breakeven Determination of Loan Limits for Reverse Mortgages under Information Asymmetry

Since the loan limit of a reverse mortgage is a major concern for the borrower as well as the lender, this paper attempts to develop an option-based model to evaluate the loan limits of reverse mortgages. Our model can identify several crucial determinants for reverse mortgage loan limits, such as initial housing price, expected housing price growth, house price volatility, mortality distribution, and interest rates. We also pay special attention to the important implication of mortgage lenders’ informational advantage over reverse mortgage borrowers concerning housing market risk. In reverse mortgage markets, the elderly borrowers typically hold far less, relative to the lenders, or no information about the lenders’ underlying mortgage pools. Such information asymmetry leads these two categories of market participants to generate different perspectives on the risk of the collateralized properties, which can be identified to be important in determining the maximum loan amounts of reverse mortgages. We further find that the maximum loan amount of a reverse mortgage decreases in the correlation between the returns on the pooled underlying housing properties but increases with the number of the pooled mortgages.     

The effect of information sharing between lenders on access to credit,cost of credit,and loan performance – Evidence from a credit registry introduction

Using a rich dataset from a commercial bank in Albania, we utilize the introduction of a public credit registry by the Albanian central bank in January 2008 as a natural experiment to analyze the effect of information sharing between lenders on (1) access to credit, (2) cost of credit, and (3) loan performance. Our results suggest that information sharing by means of a credit registry does not affect access to or cost of credit, but improves loan performance. Specifically, loans granted after the introduction of the credit registry are 3% points less likely of turning problematic, representing a 35% reduction of the overall sample average arrear probability. We further find that the effect is more pronounced for repeat borrowers and in areas, where competition is weak. This indicates that information sharing among lenders improves loan performance mainly by disciplining borrowers to repay in their concern about future access to credit.     

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure affect credit markets?

This study assesses whether the implementation of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) has affected the quantity and quality of information in credit markets. We find that, after Reg FD, borrowing from new lenders was associated with a higher loan spread. We also document that, after Reg FD, (1) borrowers became more dependent on relationship lending; (2) lead lenders retained a higher loan share; and (3) a typical loan syndicate involved a smaller number of participating lenders. We interpret these results as evidence of an increased level of information asymmetry in credit markets after Reg FD.     

Lending relationships when creditors are in control

Violations of financial covenants shift control rights to lenders. When borrowers have lending relationships with these lenders in control, they experience not only smaller declines in investment, but also lesser deteriorations in both firm survival probabilities and in sales. These effects are largely driven by opaque borrowers without any credit ratings. They are present where lending relationships existed already before loan issuance (ex-ante), but also where a contractual relationship without pre-issuance interaction is more mature (ex-post). Surprisingly, there is no evidence of any “dark side” of lending relationships when creditors are in control, such as an increase in interest expenses or a lesser degree of financial discipline.     

地理距离、契约设计与企业内部资本市场借贷风险防控——来自中国企业集团内部借贷交易的证据

地理因素对保持距离型市场交易的影响已被大量文献证实,但系统考察地理因素是否以及如何影响企业内部经济活动的研究仍十分匮乏。基于手工搜集整理的企业集团内部委托贷款这一独特数据,我们实证考察了地理距离对企业集团内部借贷契约设计的影响及相关的风险防控问题。实证结果显示,借贷距离越远,针对借款者的契约设计越严苛,不仅贷款者更可能要求借款者提供抵押担保,而且对资金用途施加限制的概率也大幅增加。进一步研究发现,与地理距离阻碍了信息搜集和监督的经济直觉一致,距离对企业内部借贷契约严苛性的推高作用会因为借贷双方之间的信息摩擦问题差异而改变。而且,基于借贷违约信息的检验结果表明,作为应对信息不对称的机制,动态调整契约严苛性这一精巧契约设计有效降低了企业内部贷款违约风险。本文不仅增进了对地理因素影响企业内部资本配置的认识,而且加深了对企业内部借贷契约设计的理解,从而对如何有效防控企业内部资本市场运作风险具有启示意义。     

地理距离、契约设计与企业内部资本市场借贷风险防控——来自中国企业集团内部借贷交易的证据

地理因素对保持距离型市场交易的影响已被大量文献证实,但系统考察地理因素是否以及如何影响企业内部经济活动的研究仍十分匮乏。基于手工搜集整理的企业集团内部委托贷款这一独特数据,我们实证考察了地理距离对企业集团内部借贷契约设计的影响及相关的风险防控问题。实证结果显示,借贷距离越远,针对借款者的契约设计越严苛,不仅贷款者更可能要求借款者提供抵押担保,而且对资金用途施加限制的概率也大幅增加。进一步研究发现,与地理距离阻碍了信息搜集和监督的经济直觉一致,距离对企业内部借贷契约严苛性的推高作用会因为借贷双方之间的信息摩擦问题差异而改变。而且,基于借贷违约信息的检验结果表明,作为应对信息不对称的机制,动态调整契约严苛性这一精巧契约设计有效降低了企业内部贷款违约风险。本文不仅增进了对地理因素影响企业内部资本配置的认识,而且加深了对企业内部借贷契约设计的理解,从而对如何有效防控企业内部资本市场运作风险具有启示意义。     

The roles of alternative data and machine learning in fintech lending: Evidence from the LendingClub consumer platform

There have been concerns about the use of alternative data sources by fintech lenders. We compare loans made by LendingClub and similar loans that were originated by banks. The correlations between the rating grades (assigned by LendingClub) and the borrowers’ FICO scores declined from about 80% (for loans originated in 2007) to about 35% for recent vintages (originated in 2014–2015), indicating that nontraditional data (not already accounted for in the FICO scores) have been increasingly used by fintech lenders. The rating grades perform well in predicting loan default. The use of alternative data has allowed some borrowers who would have been classified as subprime by traditional criteria to be slotted into “better” loan grades, allowing them to obtain lower priced credit.     

Rating manipulation and creditworthiness for platform economy: Evidence from peer-to-peer lending

Credit rating provides essential information on a project's credit risk to both lenders and borrowers. On exploring over five million lending listings from a leading peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, a mismatch phenomenon was observed between credit rating and default probability of P2P listings across different credit rating groups, despite controlling for common credit-related characteristics. Further looking into the misevaluation of credit risk, it was found that this phenomenon was more pronounced when an unexpected intervention was likely to be applied in rating projects, such as listings with high credit ratings, large loan amounts, and less personal information. The study results question the credibility of related research that uses internal credit ratings, because this variable is likely to be manipulated by the platform.     

Legal Restrictions in Personal Loan Markets

This study examines the pricing of personal loans in the form of second mortgages to determine whether state-specific default laws have an effect on the availability and cost of that debt. We examine the pricing of loans to higher risk borrowers and whether borrowers in states that limit lender ability to seek default remedies pay higher credit costs. Our results indicate that, for the most part, lenders rationally price loans to higher risk borrowers. However, when we focus on borrowers with low credit scores, the results indicate that mean actual loan rates are higher than those predicted by our model. The results also indicate that state-specific default laws have an effect on the price of credit. Finally, the results show that there is a greater degree of error in the pricing of second mortgage loans to borrowers with low credit scores than to borrowers with high credit scores.     

The role of hedge funds as primary lenders

We examine the role of hedge funds as primary lenders to corporate firms. We investigate both the reasons and the implications of hedge funds’ activities in the primary loan market. We examine the characteristics of firms that borrow from hedge funds and find that borrowers are primarily firms with lower profitability, lesser credit quality, and higher asymmetric information. Our results suggest that hedge funds serve as lenders of last resort to firms that may find it difficult to borrow from banks or issue public debt. We also examine the effect of hedge fund lending on the borrowing firms and find that borrowers’ profitability and creditworthiness improve subsequent to the loan. This beneficial effect of hedge fund lending is corroborated by our finding of positive abnormal returns for borrowers’ stocks around the loan announcement date. Overall, our findings are consistent with hedge funds adding value through their lending relationships and financial markets perceiving these activities as good news for the firms.     

A Model of Mortgage Default

In this paper, we solve a dynamic model of households' mortgage decisions incorporating labor income, house price, inflation, and interest rate risk. Using a zero‐profit condition for mortgage lenders, we solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions. The model quantifies the effects of adjustable versus fixed mortgage rates, loan‐to‐value ratios, and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default. Mortgage selection by heterogeneous borrowers helps explain the higher default rates on adjustable‐rate mortgages during the recent U.S. housing downturn, and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates.     

Seeing is important: the usefulness of video information in P2P

P2P lending is an important research subject of rising internet finance research. This paper uses unique data from Renrendai, a leading platform in China, to test the influence of video information on P2P lending behavior. Results suggest that, first, the lower the borrower's credit rating is, the more likely they are to provide video information. Second, compared to the video‐information‐absent borrowers, the otherwise borrowers can get easier access to a loan and offer a lower interest rate. These results indicate that compared to text messages, video information can increase the borrower's creditworthiness and reduce the transaction risk. Thereupon seeing is important in online P2P lending. Third, when the borrower's credit rating is lower, the video effect is significant. The study makes sense in terms of the enrichment of P2P lending literature and the enlightenment on decision‐making of both lenders and borrowers.     

Beyond the Transaction: Banks and Mortgage Default of Low‐Income Homebuyers

We evaluate the effects of the lending institution and soft information on mortgage loan performance for low‐income homebuyers. We find that even after controlling for the propensity of a borrower to get a loan from a local bank based on observable characteristics, those who receive a loan from a local bank branch are significantly less likely to become delinquent or default than other bank or nonbank borrowers, consistent with an unobserved information effect. These effects are most pronounced for loans originated to borrowers with marginal credit, where soft information may have a stronger effect. These findings support previous research on information‐driven lending, and provide additional explanation for observed differences in mortgage loan performance between bank and nonbank lenders.