Deterring fraud by looking away

Individuals being audited potentially learn how to exploit the weaknesses inherent in any audit methodology if they face the same method many times. Hence, an auditor better deters fraud by randomizing her choice of methodology over time, thereby frustrating a would‐be fraudster's ability to learn. In the extreme, an auditor benefits from refusing to audit, even though audits are costless to her.     

The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data

The pricing kernel puzzle concerns the locally increasing empirical pricing kernel, which is inconsistent with a risk-averse representative investor in a single period, single state variable setting. Some recent papers worry that the puzzle is caused simply by the mismatch of backward looking subjective and forward looking risk-neutral distributions of index returns. By using a novel test and forward looking information only, we generally confirm the existence of a u-shaped pricing kernel puzzle in the S&P 500 options data. The evidence is weaker for tests against an alternative with a risk-neutral investor and for longer horizons.     

Foresight—Are we looking in the right direction?

The practice of both competitive intelligence (CI) and foresight attempt to prevent strategic surprise by noticing and attending to signals earlier rather than later. Using analogies with human vision, we examine how organizations can see, notice and attend better to their business and competitive environments. Though discarding information is a necessary part of any intelligent and/or intelligence process, the increasing use of 2020 vision statements, seemingly expressing prescient foresightful activity, can lead to tunnel vision and encourage over-focusing, looking too hard in one direction, by neglecting both context and periphery while ignoring the discarding of information that is taking place. We consider problems of blind spots, differences between passive and active vision, the privileging of foveal (focused and central) over peripheral (contextual) vision, and why we need the periphery, both visually and organizationally. Postmodern thinking can usefully inform CI or other foresightful activities so as to better see the unseen, and spot excluded voices. We conclude by suggesting serendipity as a possible approach, so as to ultimately help see with new eyes, as Proust would have it, adopting a deliberately sideways look at one's business context to enhance foresightful looking straightforward towards a or the future.     

Extreme Uncertainty and Forward‐looking Disclosure Properties

This study investigates the effect of extreme uncertainty on disclosure behaviour by analyzing the quality and quantity of forward‐looking disclosures during the global financial crisis and pre‐crisis periods, controlling for other determinants of disclosure behaviour. Prior research has struggled to distinguish between the quality and quantity dimensions of forward‐looking disclosures. Also, the impact of the recent financial crisis on these forward‐looking disclosure attributes has not yet been examined systematically. We address this gap by exploiting the unique setting of German publicly traded firms. These firms must provide forward‐looking information within their audited financial statements, although relevant regulation is sufficiently vague to allow great variation in the quality, scope and quantity of forward‐looking disclosures actually observed. Using hand‐collected data from 2005 to 2009, we provide evidence of a significantly negative association between crisis and disclosure quality. This finding is robust to several different disclosure quality proxies and regression specifications. In contrast, we find no negative significant relation between crisis and disclosure quantity; rather, there is evidence that reported volume increases during the crisis. Our results are consistent with extreme uncertainty, as occurring during times of crisis, negatively affecting the quality of voluntary disclosures, while firms maintain or increase disclosure quantity, ultimately diluting the information density of forward‐looking disclosures.     

Forward looking behavior in ECB liquidity auctions: Evidence from the pre-crisis period

Using data from the pre-crisis period we investigate banks' joint bidding behavior in the ECB's Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) and Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO). We test whether banks bid at lower rates in MROs before the LTRO and at higher rates after the LTRO, compared to other operations. We motivate this by findings from the auction literature suggesting that agents' bidding behavior is forward looking and takes sequences of future auctions into account.We offer two findings. First, we find that in general banks bid in the MRO before the LTRO at lower rates as compared to other MROs. Moreover, MRO participants that also bid in the following LTRO bid at even lower rates, compared to peers not bidding in the LTRO. These findings support the hypothesis that banks view obtaining liquidity from the two operations as a substitute. Second, we find that banks generally bid more aggressively in the MRO after the LTRO. Banks that participated also in the LTRO preceding the MRO bid at substantially higher rates. These findings reflect that “short” banks, with potentially large net liquidity needs in the MRO after the LTRO, bid more aggressively. Although size plays a considerable role for bidding behavior, the conclusions are valid for banks of different sizes.     

The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward

Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data surprisingly well. But FX markets are evolving rapidly in response to new electronic trading technologies. Transparency has risen, trading costs have tumbled, and transaction speed has accelerated as new players have entered the market and existing players have modified their behavior. These changes will have profound effects on exchange rate dynamics. Looking forward, we highlight fundamental yet unanswered questions on the nature of private information, the impact on market liquidity, and the changing process of price discovery. We also outline potential microstructure explanations for long-standing exchange rate puzzles.     

Through the organizational looking glass: you can't plan tomorrow's organizations with today's assumptions

It's hard to imagine what our industrial society would be like if, for instance, there were no factories. How would things get produced, how would business survive? But are we, in fact, an industrial society? Are factories going to be the prime production place for a society that is conserving energy and doesn't need to travel to work because the silicon chip makes it more efficient to work at home? Who knows what the impact of energy conservation and women in the work force will be on future organizations? One thing we can be sure of, this author writes, is that whatever tomorrow brings, today's assumptions probably cannot account for it. We are, he asserts, entering a period of discontinuous change where the assumptions we have been working with as a society and in organizations are no longer necessarily true. He discusses three assumptions he sees fading--what causes efficiency, what work is, and what value organizational hierarchy has--and then gives some clues as to what our new assumptions might be. Regardless of what our assumptions actually are, however, our organizations and society will require leaders willing to take enormous risks and try unproved ways to cope with them.     

Wendell Bell, the scholar and the human being: His way of looking towards the future

Since his early professional life, Wendell Bell has sought to understand societies in terms of their changes by identifying the connections between sociology and futures studies. His aim, in my view, has been to use his highly developed intellectual capacity to search for indications of alternative futures, and his writings make a crucial contribution to sociology and futures studies and to their necessary interconnections. His efforts are unique in that they are based on the importance of ethical principles to guide human responsibility in present and future societies. His intellectual, professional capacities, as well as his experience, consist in an endeavour to understand the human being as well as its social context. This constant search emerges very clearly from Bell's writings and lectures, as well as from all his human contacts with colleagues, students and friends.     

A new way of looking at the risk in defined benefit pension plans

The portability feature of a defined contribution (DC) pension greatly reduces the risk to the accumulation of pension wealth. Conversely, defined benefit (DB) pensions have a variety of default risks that decrease the expected value of DB pension wealth. This paper examines those risks. Accrual of DB pension wealth is characterized in terms of purchases of risky bonds. Changing jobs triggers default on these bonds. Simulations are presented to show the potential loss in pension wealth from default. In addition, a methodology used to price corporate bonds is applied to generate estimates of the implied risk premiums of DB pension bonds over comparable riskless bonds.     

The Effect of Forward‐looking Criteria and IFRS on the Informativeness of Banks’ Loan Loss Allowances: Evidence from Korea

This study analyses how forward‐looking criteria (FLC) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as well as changes in accounting principles, affect the informativeness of banks’ loan loss allowances. The results indicate that although the relationship between non‐performing loans and loan loss allowances strengthened after the application of FLC, the relationship between non‐performing loans and loan loss allowances weakened and that between net charge‐offs and loan loss allowances strengthened after the application of IFRS, presumably because banks delayed the reflection of insolvent loans on loan loss allowances in the latter case. Moreover, the introduction of IFRS did not improve the ability to predict the future charge‐off scale using loan loss allowances, referred to as the ‘informativeness of loan loss allowances’. This result occurred because IFRS's incurred loss model does not incorporate the impact of macroeconomic situations into loan loss allowances in the early stage, although it does enhance the accuracy of loan loss allowances. By exploring the effect of accounting principles on the determinants of loan loss allowances, this study has implications for the assessment of loan loss allowances, capital adequacy and asset quality for stakeholders such as depositors, creditors, capital markets and financial supervisory authorities.     

New development: Fiscal reform in South Korea: looking back and moving forward

ABSTRACT

At first glance, it seems that South Korea’s three fiscal systems (mid-term expenditure framework, top-down budgeting, and performance management) function well. However, each fiscal system operates separately and they are inefficient because they follow past practices. This article explains what the problems are and how to overcome them.     

From risk analysis in Europe to European risk analysis: the first ten years of SRA-E (1987-97)

Risk analysis has both a long past and a short history. This latter is written in the past 30 years. Technology's potential to create sometimes irreversible damage, as well as unprecedented improvement in standard of living, prompted the need for risk analysis. The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) was created in the United States at the end of the 1970s. Its purpose was and is to bring together scientists and professionals concerned by issues of risk to health, safety and the environment, on an international and interdisciplinary basis. This article traces European participation in the SRA and recounts the founding of the chapter Society for Risk Analysis- Europe (SRA-E) in 1987. The composition of founding, Advisory and Executive Committees is given, as are themes and Directors of the seven Conferences held by SRA-E to date. SRA in 1987 counted 69 Europe-based members in 13 countries; in 1997, 25 countries are represented in SRA-Europe by 317 members. A trend is seen from a mainly geographic extension of SRA towards a more specific identity springing from risk research and management as practised today in Europe. The multicultural and multilingual experience of members, and their capacity for collaboration across national and disciplinary lines, are among European risk analysis' strongest assets. The present Journal of Risk Research can provide a forum for reinforcing new currents in risk analysis. The creation of a European university cursus in risk studies is recommended, as is a stronger role for SRA-E as a body of expertise. A call is made for risk analysis sustainable in national and cultural contexts removed from those that have developed today's art and practice: needed are appropriate conceptualizations of risk, management methods, and indicators of success. The Mediterranean basin and North Africa are targeted as areas for development and new learning for risk analysts, communicators, managers and researchers in the 21st century.     

Compound Poisson Model with Covariates

Abstract

Pet insurance in North America continues to be a growing industry. Unlike in Europe, where some countries have as much as 50% of the pet population insured, very few pets in North America are insured. Pricing practices in the past have relied on market share objectives more so than on actual experience. Pricing still continues to be performed on this basis with little consideration for actuarial principles and techniques. Developments of mortality and morbidity models to be used in the pricing model and new product development are essential for pet insurance. This paper examines insurance claims as experienced in the Canadian market. The time-to-event data are investigated using the Cox’s proportional hazards model. The claim number follows a nonhomogenous Poisson process with covariates. The claim size random variable is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. These two models work well for aggregate claims with covariates. The first three central moments of the aggregate claims for one insured animal, as well as for a block of insured animals, are derived. We illustrate the models using data collected over an eight-year period.     

The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.     

Basket CDS pricing with interacting intensities

We propose a factor contagion model for correlated defaults. The model covers the heterogeneous conditionally independent portfolio and the infectious default portfolio as special cases. The model assumes that the hazard rate processes are driven by external common factors as well as defaults of other names in the portfolio. The total hazard construction method is used to derive the joint distribution of default times. The basket CDS rates can be computed analytically for homogeneous contagion portfolios and recursively for general factor contagion portfolios. We extend the results to include the interacting counterparty risk and the stochastic intensity process. The authors thank two anonymous referees for several suggestions which have helped to improve the earlier versions. The authors thank Sheng Miao for help in implementation with C++, Huiqi Pan for help in implementation with Fortran, and Xiaozhou Cao for help in implementation with MAPLE. Harry Zheng thanks the London Mathematical Society for its collaborative grant support (Grant 4544 and Grant 4707).     

Convergence of utility functions and convergence of optimal strategies

In this paper we study the stability (in the L ^p as well as for the almost sure convergence sense) of the optimal investment-consumption strategy with respect to the choice of the utility function.Received: February 2003, The authors want to thank an anonymous referee as well as an associate editor for their useful comments and suggestions (in particular, the development on the speed of convergence). The authors also thank R. A. Dana for helpful discussions and W. Schachermayer for careful reading.     

Rhetorical accounts of risk: interprofessional risk assessment in operational planning meetings

In the context of high-risk industries, risk assessment takes place not only through standardized methods for risk analysis, but is frequently negotiated and discussed as an integral part of operational decision-making. This is not least the case in the context of operational planning. Frequent changes in operations require ongoing assessment of risk as tasks are rescheduled and resources reallocated. The current study explores how professionals account for the presence or absence of risk in a setting in which risk analysis is not the primary objective. With data from the offshore petroleum industry, the rhetorical aspects of risk assessments are examined. A series of interprofessional planning meetings were video recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a rhetorical discourse analytic framework. The data are analyzed at a micro-interactional level in order to study how accounts of risk are presented and negotiated in this particular setting. The meaning and consequences of operational plan changes, and their implications for safety, are seen as negotiated discursively through interprofessional meeting talk. The analysis shows that accounts of risk are characterized by shifting rhetorical strategies that can be heard to echo established risk discourses often referred to as ‘technico-scientific’ and ‘contextualized’ conceptions of risk. Rhetorical devices are used interchangeably and strategically by the participants as they account for risk from their respective institutional positions and their specific areas of expertise and responsibility. The accounts are found to be increasingly persuasive and rhetorical in style as disagreements over risk and prioritizations surface. Accounts of risk, then, are not simply objective presentations of probability and consequence, but rather powerful tools for achieving specific professional outcomes. The study contributes to the understanding of risk assessment at its most concrete and practical level; as it takes place through professional interaction in an operational setting.     

Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

The credit risk capital requirements within the current Basel II Accord are based on the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach. The asset correlation parameter, defined as an obligor's sensitivity to the ASRF, is a key driver within this approach, and its average values for different types of obligors are to be set by regulators. Specifically, for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, the average asset correlations are to be determined using formulas for either income-producing real estate or high-volatility commercial real estate. In this paper, the value of this parameter was empirically examined using portfolios of U.S. publicly-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a proxy for CRE lending more generally. CRE lending as a whole was found to have the same calibrated average asset correlation as corporate lending, providing support for the recent U.S. regulatory decision to treat these two lending categories similarly for regulatory capital purposes. However, the calibrated values for CRE categories, such as multi-family residential or office lending, varied in important ways. The comparison of calibrated and regulatory values of the average asset correlations for these categories suggests that the current regulatory formulas generate parameter values that may be too high in most cases.     

An Empirical Model of Optimal Capital Structure1

The authors provide a reasonably user‐friendly and intuitive model for arriving at a company's optimal, or value‐maximizing, leverage ratio that is based on the estimation of company‐specific cost and benefit functions for debt financing. The benefit functions are downward‐sloping, reflecting the drop in the incremental value of debt with increases in the amount used. The cost functions are upward‐sloping, reflecting the increase in costs associated with increases in leverage. The cost functions vary among companies in ways that reflect differences in corporate characteristics such as size, profitability, dividend policy, book‐to‐market ratio, and asset collateral and redeployability. The authors use these cost and benefit functions to produce an estimate of a company's optimal amount of debt. Just as equilibrium in economics textbooks occurs where supply equals demand, optimal capital structure occurs at the point where the marginal benefit of debt equals the marginal cost. The article illustrates optimal debt choices for companies such as Barnes & Noble, Coca‐Cola, Six Flags, and Performance Food Group. The authors also estimate the net benefit of debt usage (in terms of the increase in firm or enterprise value) for companies that are optimally levered, as well as the net cost of being underleveraged for companies with too little debt, and the cost of overleveraging for companies with too much. One critical insight of the model is that the costs associated with overleveraging appear to be significantly higher, at least for some companies, than the costs of being underleveraged.