数控车床的对刀方法和技巧

本文分析了数控车床坐标系,介绍几种常用的对刀方法。     

Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction

This paper provides theoretical underpinnings for the commodity price/aggregate price relationship, discusses the conditions under which commodity prices are useful information variables for monetary policy, and provides empirical results which suggest why commodity prices have not been very useful for forecasting.     

Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior: Are they accurate and useful?

This paper investigates empirically whether consumer sentiments indices, based on surveys complied by GfK, forecast household consumption types for the UK. Firstly, we use a quantitative equation approach to assess whether the indices are able to forecast household consumption growth in addition to traditional variables, which are included as control variables. Subsequently, using qualitative directional analysis, we investigate whether the indices are accurate and useful predictors as well. We find that, broadly speaking, both the headline, or aggregate, and the major purchasing indices have some predictive powers in addition to the control variables and are also directionally accurate and useful.     

Job Design in the Presence of Career Concerns

We reconsider the job design theory of Holmstrom and Milgrom to include career concerns. When agents are motivated by their reputation, the discretion to pursue outside activities plays an integral part in the incentive scheme. Discretion can be a useful instrument to enhance incentives and prevent the adverse selection of low‐ability agents. We argue that these synergies are useful in explaining, among other examples, the employment of US faculty members and of physicians in dual health care systems.     

Minimax robust designs for field experiments

Experimental designs for field experiments are useful in planning agricultural experiments, environmental studies, etc. Optimal designs depend on the spatial correlation structures of field plots. Without knowing the correlation structures exactly in practice, we can study robust designs. Various neighborhoods of covariance matrices are introduced and discussed. Minimax robust design criteria are proposed, and useful results are derived. The generalized least squares estimator is often more efficient than the least squares estimator if the spatial correlation structure belongs to a small neighborhood of a covariance matrix. Examples are given to compare robust designs with optimal designs. The work was partially supported by research grants from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

Closing the loop on employee training

World class enterprises have placed a premium on employee training but often have difficulty in confirming the success of that training. An employee's improved performance is the ultimate measure of success, but frequently it is desirable to have feedback on the training session before the employee begins work with his or her new skills. Assessment instruments that accurately reflect the training activities and their learning objectives can be useful to both the trainee and the trainer. Types of instruments that might be useful for measuring success are discussed, processes for developing appropriate assessment instruments are described, and some of the hazards associated with testing in the workplace are provided.     

中小软件企业技术-组织-市场协同创新的影响因素实证研究

运用协同创新理论对中小软件企业六大创新要素(技术、战略、文化、组织、制度、市场)中最活跃的技术、组织和市场三个创新要素的协同创新的影响因素进行实证研究,力图通过实证分析找出和评价一些有利于促进中小软件企业技术-组织-市场协同创新的共性因素,进而为在金融危机中进退两难的中小软件企业提供有益的建议。     

An Economic Model of Socio-Political Bargaining

A bstract Non-economic social phenomena have been, and are being, explored with analytic methods drawn from economic analysis. Two such analytic concepts, indifference curves and offer curves, have proved useful in such efforts. The concepts are integrated here within a specific formal model which is held to be useful in exploring the central social and political process of bargaining. The impact of three variables–preference, impatience (or time), and reciprocal demand intensity–on political bargaining is shown. The framework provides a scheme around which empirical research can be organized to assist in the integration of economic with other social science theory.     

Distributional inference

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is so attractive and useful, however, that it should be pursued. Our approach is In line with Walds theory of statistical decision functions and with Lehmann's books about hypothesis testing and point estimation: loss functions are defined, risk functions are studied, unbiasedness and equivariance restrictions are made, etc. A central theme is that the loss function should be 'proper'. This fundamental concept has been explored by meteorologists, psychometrists, Bayesian statisticians, and others. The paper should be regarded as an attempt to reconcile various schools of statisticians. By accepting what we regard 88 good and useful in the various approaches we are trying to develop a nondogmatic approach.     

如何在英语阅读当中“猜”生词

文章详细地阐述了英语阅读当中一些猜词的技巧,尤其是重点叙述了通过构词法,即前缀和后缀的方式猜测生词的技巧,而且认为阅读与词汇量之间是相辅相成,相互促进的。     

Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects

In evaluating capital budgeting decisions, quantitative approaches, such as traditional discounted cash flow modeling and real options valuations, are useful when there is a presumed probability distribution for the future forecasted outcomes or for when there are lower levels of uncertainty. As uncertainty increases and forecasting becomes difficult, the value of financial modeling techniques decreases. Borrowing from the strategic management literature, we argue that it may be useful to employ a qualitative approach to evaluate capital projects when faced with high levels of uncertainty. In order to illustrate our argument, we use a derivative of scenario planning and qualitative real options to evaluate non-quantifiable factors in a project for the National Ignition Facility.     

Transport and Environmental Policy

Economic analysis is useful in pointing to policies to reduce the environmental degradation caused by transport, but other initiatives are sometimes required to combat and overcome some of the problems.     

园林建筑小品与构景要素配置初探

从园林建筑小品的基本要素入手,探讨了各种景观场景中的园林建筑小品与植物、石、水、环境等的搭配艺术,旨在为城市园林规划提供有益的参考。     

质量链管理:装备质量管理的新模式

本文对质量链管理的概念、国内外研究现状以及装备实施质量链管理的有效途径进行了归纳和分析,对于在我军装备研制过程中推广应用质量链管理具有非常重要的借鉴作用。     

Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts

Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to make probability distributions for terminal vital rates, and smooth trajectories are followed over time. We use analysis and examples to show several key differences between these methods: serial correlations in the forecast are much smaller in LT; the variance in LT models of vital rates (especially fertility) is much higher than in RS models that are based on official expert scenarios; trajectories in LT are much more irregular than in RS; probability intervals in LT tend to widen faster over forecast time. Newer versions of RS have been developed that reduce or eliminate some of these differences.     

The ongoing feedback system : Experimental with a new managerial tool

This experiment represents a first step in the development of ongoing feedback systems as useful managerial tools. Additional research and testing of systems is needed. The results of this first experiment, however, are encouraging and indicate that if used effectively, such systems have the potential of improving organizational performance while also having a positive effect on employee attitudes. A consistent theme in the experiment has been that feedback systems are managerial tools, and are thus constrained in their value by the knowledge, skill, and motivation of those who use them. Wherever that knowledge, skill, and motivation exist or have been developed, the system appears to produce durable and positive changes, in a number of different work units, at a reasonable cost, and without the constant intervention of consultants. Thus the ongoing feedback system appears to meet the basic criteria for an effective and useful managerial tool and holds promise as a means for building more effective organizations.     

Simplified estimation of parameters in a cauchy distribution

Simplified estimators of the location and scale parameters of a Cauchy distribution are constructed along the lines developed by D ixon [3, 4]. Symmetrically censored samples are considered. The efficiency of these estimators is shown to be high enough to make them useful in practice.