“十一五”期间扩大农村消费需求的对策

投资、消费和出口是拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。但目前的情况是,我国过分依靠投资和外贸出口来拉动经济增长,消费对GDP增长的贡献份额连续大幅下降。十年来,我国最终消费率平均为59.5%,比世界平均消费率低近20个百分点；同期,我国投资率比发达国家平均水平高出近20个百分点,贸易顺差也持续增加,投资、出     

低消费、高投资是现阶段我国经济运行的常态

近年来,伴随着我国消费率的持续走低和投资率的居高不下以及若干行业的投资“过热”,人们对消费与投资关系的关注达到了空前的程度。但人们的看法并不一致,对这个问题的认识也还在探索之中。本文通过对消费与投资比例关系的相关国际比较方法、长期态势与短期波动、消费率与投资率的关系、居民部     

我国投资消费关系的变动特点及发展趋势

改革开放以来,我国内需总体上保持了较快增长。其中,消费占内需的比重波动下降,投资所占比重则波动上升,总储蓄占GDP的比重稳定上升,投资和消费失衡问题日趋严重。根据国内外的发展经验,并考虑所处的发展阶段,我国较好的投资与消费比例关系是：投资率一般不应高于40％,消费率不应低于60％。预计到2020年我国投资率可能降到35％以下,消费率可能上升到60％以上。     

“十一五”时期的投资总量、结构和政府投资战略

一、总量测算与调控 （一）形势判断 1、对“十五”投资总量形势的估计进入“十五”时期后，我国投资总量一直保持着较强劲的增长势头，2005年资本形成率将达到45％以上，为改革开放以来的最高值，十分引人注目。我们认为，近期特殊的高投资率是因一系列有利于储蓄和投资而不利于消费的长短期因素不寻常的叠加造成的。其中包括世界经济强劲增长引起的外需迅猛增加，国内经济高速增长引起的储蓄和投资需求大幅度增加，     

刍议消费率及投资率与我国的经济增长

通过纵向与横向对比，可以得知，长期以来特别是“十五”期间，我国投资率持续偏高，消费率持续走低。在高投资、低消费下，我国经济保持了较快的增长速度。但从长远来看，高投资率和低消费率必然会对我国经济持续健康发展带来负面影响。在深入分析目前高投资、低消费发展趋势及形成原因的基础上，得出高投资、低消费并不是我国经济发展的常态这一初步结论，并提出应采取有效对策降低投资率，提高消费率，调整投资与消费的比例关系，为我国经济持续快速健康发展奠定坚实基础。     

刍议中国劳动力价格与经济增长路径转变

改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令世人瞩目的成就,与此同时,经济运行中不和谐的因素也日益增加.投资和消费的比例关系失衡,表现为投资率偏高而消费率偏低.从劳动者收入入手研究投资、消费比例问题,在研究中国劳动力价格的现状后得出结论:相对于居民生活密切相关的粮价、油价、水电费、通讯费、教育费、医疗费来说,中国劳动力价格太低,因此,提高劳动力价格,增加其收入才是破解投资消费失衡的"密钥",也是促进中国经济从依赖投资的增长方式向依靠消费拉动经济增长方式的增长路径转变的"治本之道".     

促进消费投资出口协调拉动

改革开放以来,福建经济从整体上看已经跨入工业化中级阶段,经济总量、人均水平均已达到一个新的层面。但是目前福建三大需求结构中投资率偏高、消费率较低,国民经济整体表现为有效需求不足。党的十七大报告提出“坚持扩大国内需求特别是消费需求的方针,促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变“。本文通过对福建改革开放以来投资、消费和净出口进行定性分析与定量分析,对如何加快消费及其与投资、出口协调拉动问题进行探讨。     

消费率下降的四大因素

面对外需、投资的强势,国内需求一直在持续下降。对此,国家统计局局长邱晓华日前表示,就数据而言,我国当前的消费率确实比较低,但不能认为不正常。虽然我国的最终消费率呈现持续走低的趋势,但消费的绝对量却一直处在不断提高的通道,是拉动中国GDP增长的重要力量。国际经验表明,在各国工业化进程中,经济结构的共同演变规律之一是投资率不断提高、消费率相对下降,但在工业化进程结束之后,投资率和消费率则趋于稳定。中国还处在工业化进程的中期阶段,同时又要推进城市化,自然对投资有更多依赖。从各国发展的历史经验看,中国属于低收入国家向…     

国民收入分配对投资消费失衡的影响分析

投资消费失衡严重制约了我国国民经济持续健康发展,国民收入在企业部门、政府部门、住户部门之间的不合理分配是导致我国投资消费失衡的根本原因。国民收入分配对投资消费失衡影响的数理分析和实证分析表明,对投资率、消费率最有影响的是企业部门在国民收入分配中的比重,其次是政府部门在国民收入分配中的比重,影响最小的是住户部门在国民收入分配中的比重。     

我国内需增长的主要特点及变动趋势

改革开放以来,我国内需总体保持较快增长,在我国经济中占据绝对地位,对经济增长发挥着绝对作用。其中,消费占内需的比重波动下降,投资所占比重波动上升,投资和消费失衡问题日趋严重。根据国内外的发展经验,并考虑所处的发展阶段,我国较好的投资与消费比例关系是:投资率一般不应高于40%,消费率不应低于60%。预计到2020年我国投资率可能降到35%以下,消费率可能上升到60%以上。     

Measuring total productivity change

This paper examines several ways of measuring the aggregate rate of technical change: with the aggregate production function; in a disaggregated framework of the multisector model; and with the net social production possibility frontier or the generalized factor price frontier. Conditions under which all three approaches are mutually compatible are determined.     

Youth dependency and total factor productivity

Recent literature shows empirical support for an effect of demographic age structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity. Much of the recent literature on economic growth has stressed that an understanding of cross-country differences in output per worker is needed. That literature argues that the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker is differences in total factor productivity. This paper finds empirical evidence in cross-country data for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces ‘residual’ growth, which measures total factor productivity growth. For this reason, the paper demonstrates that age structure has an effect on the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker.     

Postmaterialism influencing total entrepreneurial activity across nations

The relative stability of differences in entrepreneurial activity across countries suggests that other than economic factors are at play. The objective of this paper is to explore how postmaterialism may explain these differences. A distinction is made between nascent entrepreneurship, new business formation and a combination of the two, referred to as total entrepreneurial activity, as defined within the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). The model is also tested for the rate of established businesses. The measure for postmaterialism is based upon Inglehart’s four-item postmaterialism index. A set of economic, demographic and social factors is included to investigate the independent role postmaterialism plays in predicting entrepreneurial activity levels. In particular, per capita income is used to control for economic effects. Education rates at both secondary and tertiary levels are used as demographic variables. Finally, life satisfaction is included to control for social effects. Data from 27 countries (GEM, World Values Survey and other sources) are used to test the hypotheses. Findings confirm the significance of postmaterialism in predicting total entrepreneurial activity and more particularly, new business formation rates.

Innovation and total factor productivity in organic farming

This article measures the contribution of innovations to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of organic olive farmers. By constructing an innovation variable instead of using a time trend, technical change is replaced by technical difference and TFP growth becomes TFP difference. Primary cross-section data on organic olive enterprises from a Greek region is used in the application of the stochastic frontier profit function. Farmers are classified into groups according to their innovative ‘profile’. TFP difference among consecutive innovation groups is decomposed into technical difference and adjustment in innovativeness effects. Results indicate that more innovative farmers perform better than less innovative ones regarding TFP scores. The rate of technical difference is always positive to the formation of TFP difference, whereas the adjustment in innovativeness effects varies among the innovation groups. Nevertheless, high-tech capital is to a different extent under-utilized, regardless of the innovation group.     

Network technologies,communication externalities and total factor productivity

The main aim of this paper is to determine the factors which enhance or temper firms’ private incentives to use communications technologies that are characterised by network externalities and allow firms to influence their rate of technological change or total factor productivity (TFP). As regards the impact of the network effect on TFP, we find that when the externality parameter is low, a slightly negative effect appears, but this effect is reversed when the externality is higher. This relationship is valid regardless of the number of firms. Our result is particularly interesting because it offers a possible explanation for the Solow productivity paradox. We conclude that, in addition to the degree of network effects, market structure, consumer preferences and the number of users also have a very important influence on TFP and technological change.     

Analysis on total factor productivity of Chinese provincial economy

This paper applies the nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index approach to estimate total factor productivity growth, efficiency change and the rate of technological progress from 1979 to 2003. This is done to conduct analysis on the total factor productivity of China’s provincial economy. Analysis on the evolution of distribution dynamics of relative labor productivity, relative total factor productivity, relative efficiency and relative technological progress is done by using kernel density estimation for the period from 1979 to 2003 in 29 provinces of China. Our analysis indicates that disparities of provincial economic growth are large and have been increasing owing to the relatively large and increasing disparities of total factor productivity growth especially the rate of technological progress. __________ Translated from The Journal of World Economy (世界经6D4E;), 2005, (5) (in Chinese)