Toward understanding household preference for consumption characteristics of millet varieties: a case study from western Niger

In this study, we evaluate the preference of consumers in Niger for different tuwo or couscous characteristics using a random utility‐based choice experiment, ordered probit analysis, and tree‐based partitioning. Data were collected through a structured survey administered at four sites. Preferences are estimated for three products (couscous, fermented tuwo, and nonfermented tuwo) made from five pearl millet cutivars. We provide relative valuation for different traits by type of product. Results show that product taste, color, and textural attributes are important, especially for tuwo and couscous. Probit and partitioning results show that taste and color are the first attributes that consumers use to distinguish more preferred millet food products from less preferred millet food products. This should provide some direction for millet breeding programs and food processing of millet.     

Grain transport and rural credit in Mozambique: solving the space–time problem

This paper shows how credit market failures can lead to large welfare losses in grain markets by inducing increased transport for seasonal storage in locations with low credit costs. The burden of these welfare losses falls primarily on rural households. These conclusions are obtained from a spatial/temporal model solved using a mixed complementarity formulation that easily handles interest rate differentials across space. Efforts to address credit market failures and to improve the efficiency of rural storage should be given priority as opposed to the creation of large, formal sector grain collection centers.     

Would Indian farmers benefit from liberalization of world cotton and sugar markets?

Rich-country support programs for cotton and sugar producers are frequently claimed to be detrimental for developing-country farmers. This study investigates whether a reduction in protectionist policies for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cotton and sugar producers would have a measurable effect on the welfare of Indian farmers. The fact that these sectors are intensively regulated within India might suggest that any such effect will be small. However, this study shows econometrically that prices in Indian rural markets closely follow world prices, and that Indian farmers are flexible in the medium to long run in changing production according to price signals from these markets. Depending on the crop and the nature of liberalization, producer surplus increases from 4.2% to 22.3% in the long run.     

Impacts of prices and transactions costs on input usage in a liberalizing economy: evidence from Tanzanian coffee growers

Despite improvements in production incentives, agricultural output in Africa remained sluggish through the 1990s. Low use of purchased inputs may be part of the cause of persistently low productivity in African agriculture. This article analyzes the roles of relative prices and transactions costs in explaining low use of chemical inputs among Tanzanian coffee growers. A sample selection model indicates that output prices exert great influence on input purchases and that both fixed and variable transactions costs affect input use decisions. Travel costs in input and output markets have distinct effects on input usage, implying distinct avenues for interventions to promote more intensive use of agricultural inputs.     

Determinants of a social clause in international trade negotiations

Survey data are used to examine the determinants of a “social clause” in international trade negotiations. Proponents of such a clause argue that the inclusion of labor laws, environmental impacts, and other social issues in international trade negotiations would ensure fair competition, an equitable distribution of the benefits of free trade, and, in the case of labor, protect the basic rights of workers. Opponents see these arguments as a disguised form of protectionism and self‐interest based on the protection of labor‐intensive industries in developed countries. Results from a logit model indicate a decreased likelihood for the inclusion of a social clause in international trade negotiations across farm sizes. In particular the results suggest that agricultural producers with annual gross sales including government payments between US$500,000 and US$999,000, are 40% less likely to want labor laws, environmental impacts, and food safety standards to be included as part of international trade negotiations. The results also show that agricultural producers with college experience or college degrees are less likely to want these social interventions while second generation farmers and first generation farmers with a master's degree want labor laws, environmental impacts, and food safety standards to be included as part of international trade negotiations.     

Plot size and maize productivity in Zambia: is there an inverse relationship?

This article examines the relationship between maize productivity and plot size in Zambia. It offers a unique empirical approach. First, it focuses on maize, which is the major crop on small and medium size farms in Zambia, but also accounts for the endogenous determination of the size of the plot devoted to maize. Previous studies have used total farm size or harvested area. Second, it corrects for selectivity in maize cultivation. Third, it controls for differences in land quality and weather conditions across districts. Finally, it offers a structural interpretation of the above framework by modeling farm decisions as a sequential, two‐stage process, in which land is first allocated to the different crops based on the information set of the farmers at the time of planting, and the yield is affected by subsequent application of inputs, the quantities of which may depend on additional information that is revealed after planting. We use this recursive structure and the differences in the information sets over time to identify the model. The results show that the endogeneity of plot size is very important in this analysis. When considering plot size as an exogenous explanatory variable, we find a monotonic positive relationship between the yield of maize and plot size, indicating that economies of scale are dominant throughout the plot size distribution. However, when we correct for the endogeneity of plot size, we find that the inverse relationship dominates the economies of scale in all plots up to 3 ha, which constitute 86% of our sample. These results suggest that market imperfections should be targeted by any policy aimed at increasing maize productivity in Zambia.     

Rural–urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal

This paper explores the relationship between agricultural productivity and rural-urban migration by developing an econometric model and applying it to the case of Senegal. Country level data is used covering the years 1961-1996. Policy implications of reducing rural-urban migration using agricultural output elasticities are developed. The findings support the hypothesis that rural-urban migration is a positive function of the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income. Moreover, the results support a policy aimed at reducing rural-urban migration flows through increases in per capita earnings derived from increased agricultural investment.     

Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

We find that large short-term precipitation shocks damage the long-term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit-constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long-term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long-term losses.     

北京地区1km2网格植物气候生产力的估算

该研究利用北京地区1km^2。网格的气候资料，应用桑斯维特纪念模型估算了北京地区植物气候生产力，并利用地理信息系统软件将网格植物气候生产力进行了可视化处理。此估算结果全面系统地表现了北京地区植物气候生产力的空间分布状况：平原区及山前暖区的植物气候生产力普遍大于山区，最大值出现在水热条件较好的平谷区，最小值出现在水热条件较差的西部山区。此估算结果为各级政府管理部门进行产业结构调整和生态环境保护提供了重要的科学依据。     

Shadow wages, allocative inefficiency, and labor supply in smallholder agriculture

This article introduces a method for estimating structural labor supply models in the presence of unobservable wages and deviations of households' marginal revenue product of self‐employed labor from their shadow wage. This method is therefore robust to a wide range of assumptions about labor allocation decisions in the presence of uncertainty, market frictions, locational preferences, etc. We illustrate the method using data from rice producers in Côte d'Ivoire. These data, like previous studies, reveal significant systematic differences between shadow wages and the marginal revenue product of family farm labor. We demonstrate how one can exploit systematic deviations, in the present case related to household characteristics such as the land/labor endowment ratio, to control for both unobservable wages and prospective allocative inefficiency in labor allocation in structural household labor supply estimation.     

Deprived land-use intensification in shifting cultivation: the population pressure hypothesis revisited

This article provides a theoretical framework, based on optimal control theory, to analyze farm households' land‐use intensification decisions in forest‐based shifting cultivation (slash‐and‐burn) agroecosystems. The main results from the analysis generally coincide with the “Population Pressure Hypothesis” (PPH) as an important driver of soil degradation due to the so‐called “fallow crisis” or “deprived land‐use intensification” in shifting cultivation. However, the model also shows, from a supply perspective, that such a vicious circle of lower yields and greater forest land clearing may be avoided when the production elasticity of on‐farm labor outweighs the elasticity of substitution between farm labor and soil fertility. Furthermore, using data from shifting cultivating households from Yucatán, Mexico, we calibrate the effect of changes in population density. The numerical analysis suggests that by contrast to better‐off households, when population density increases, poorer shifting cultivating households' optimal labor allocation strategy is to further extensify land use by clearing more forest in the village common property land, or ejido land.     

Investigating the performance of different estimation techniques for crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications

We investigate the performance of the ordinary least squares (OLS)‐, M‐, MM‐, and the Theil–Sen (TS)‐estimator for crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications using Monte Carlo simulations. More specifically, the performance is assessed with respect to trend estimation, prediction of future yield levels, and the estimation of expected indemnity payments. In agreement with earlier findings, other estimators are found to be superior to OLS in simple regression problems if yield distributions are outlier contaminated and heteroscedastic. While this conclusion is also valid for subsequent applications such as yield prediction and the estimation of expected indemnity payments, the difference between the considered estimators becomes less distinct. For these applications, we find particularly the M‐estimator to be a good compromise between high‐breakdown (very robust) estimators and the very efficient OLS‐estimator. Because no regression technique dominates all others in all applications and scenarios for error term distributions, our results underline that the choice of the estimation technique should be dependent on the purpose of the crop yield data analysis. However, alternative estimators such as M‐, MM‐, and TS‐estimator can reduce (and bound) the risk of unreliable or inefficient crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications.     

Rural nonfarm employment and farming: household-level linkages

This article introduces the articles in Agricultural Economics , vol. 40 no. 2 (March 2009). First, we introduce their objectives in a brief review of existing literature on developing country trends in rural income diversification, in particular rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and its impact on farm technology choice in crops and livestock, and thus on agricultural modernization and diversification. Then we preview the key points of the articles, which use distinctive primary datasets from Albania, Bulgaria, China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, Senegal, and Vietnam to document the impacts of RNFE and their implications for farm technology and farm activity.     

The long-term impacts of orphanhood on education attainment and land inheritance among adults in rural Kenya

Although the long-term economic impacts of the AIDS epidemic on orphans have been major concerns, few studies have investigated the impacts of orphan status into adulthood. Therefore, this article examines the education attainment and land inheritance of former orphans, who have lost at least one parent before reaching the age of 15 years, by using household surveys in Kenya. We find about a one-year lower educational attainment among former maternal orphans compared with former nonorphans among adults who started schooling before the Free Primary Education program introduced in 1974 but not among adults who started schooling after 1974. On inherited land, we find no significant difference between households headed by former orphans and nonorphans, after controlling for land owned by parents, numbers of brothers and sisters, and birth order among brothers.     

河南省耕地压力时空分布研究

河南省作为粮食大省,近些年粮食种植面积和产量基本保持了稳中上升的态势.1998年到2004年,河南省耕地压力指数大于1.2003年耕地压力最大.2005年以后,河南省耕地压力指数小于1,并逐步下降.预计十二五时期河南省耕地压力指数将继续稳步下降.要确保实现这一目标,需具备的条件包括控制人口规模、继续增加耕地面积、控制工...     

Income Risk,Consumption Security and the Poor

Households in developing countries have to deal with large fluctuations in income without being able to rely on formal insurance and credit markets. This paper presents an overview of the ways in which poor households attain consumption security and shows that doing so in the absence of security enhancing institutions is costly, especially for the poor.     

Location determinants of food manufacturers in the United States, 2000–2004: are nonmetropolitan counties competitive?

Infrastructure, agglomeration, product and input markets, fiscal attributes, and labor markets of local communities influenced food manufacturing location decisions in the lower 48 United States, 2000–2004. Negative binomial regression and spatial clustering methods forecast food processor location patterns at the county level. Noncore counties are at a comparative disadvantage with respect to attracting most food processors, but nonmetropolitan counties adjacent to urban areas may be attractive investment sites for footloose, supply, and demand-oriented food manufacturers.     

Unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences in Turkey

The objective of this study is to investigate unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences among Turkish households by using cross‐sectional survey data from 18,278 households. Based on the data, 47.8% of the households consume unpacked milk, 29.3% consume sterilized milk, and 7.9% consume pasteurized fluid milk at least once a month. Results of the multinomial logit model for fluid milk consumption behavior suggest that unpacked fluid milk preference is related positively to household size, income and age of the household head, and negatively to education level of the household head and status of the household wife. Similarly, pasteurized and sterilized fluid milk preferences are related positively to income and the education level of the household head, and negatively to household size and age of the household head. Results from these analyses are used to suggest techniques for marketing fluid milk products to specific segments of the consumer population.