Precautionary behavior and consumer information: A Markov process approach

This paper explores the role of consumer confidence in the equilibrium of a dynamic macroeconomic growth model with rational expectations. Consumers face an uncertain future income stream due to a Markov stochastic process that affects production. Changes in the properties of this process change consumer information sets and optimal policies in the rational expectations format. Increases in “persistence” in the shock process are considered; this is identified with the consumer's subjective assessment of future economic conditions. Two cases are considered: where either good or bad states of the process are more likely to persist into the future, and where bad states persist unconditionally at the expense of good. Consistent with earlier treatments of savings under uncertainty (Barsky, Mankiw and Zeldes 1986, and Skinner 1988), the consumer's response to increased income uncertainty is to exhibit precautionary saving behavior. The infinite-horizon growth model format used offers significant improvement over other finite-horizon life cycle models. Specifically, the model is a full general equilibrium model and the solutions are rational expectations solutions. The technique also is easily adapted to other recursive decision problems under uncertainty.     

大学生旅游者旅游消费行为探析

大学生旅游成为新的经济亮点,大学生在求知心理、好奇心理、解脱心理等动机影响下,加入旅游大军之中,但因其消费水平的偏低,必然带来积极和消极两个方面的影响。     

A threshold theory of discretionary interaction behavior

There presently exists a gap between aggregate and disaggregate approaches to modeling spatial interaction behavior. This paper proposes a strategy for filling this gap by focusing on specific types of interaction behavior which share certain common characteristics. In the present case, a simple threshold theory is developed which establishes a link between various types of discretionary interaction behavior by individuals and the resulting macro distribution of interaction frequencies. In particular, it is shown that if the statistical population of potential interaction situations satisfies certain independence conditions over space, then the resulting macro interaction frequencies are always Poisson distributed with mean frequency levels representable by a classical gravity model.     

Axiomatic characterizations of the duality correspondence in consumer theory

In this paper we present several axiomatic characterizations of the mapping assigning to the utility function of a consumer its associated indirect utility function as well as characterizations of the inverse correspondence. Some of them refer to the standard case of real-valued functions, while others involve functions taking values in an arbitrary complete chain. In this abstract framework, we also give some simultaneos characterizations of both transformations.     

Is Giffen behaviour compatible with the axioms of consumer theory?

A family of direct utility functions is constructed which exhibit the characteristic of Giffenity, while satisfying the axioms of convexity and monotonicity. The approach starts by specifying a price offer curve, C₀, with a required backward-bending segment. Then a set of convex indifference curves is constructed having price offer curve arbitrarily close to C₀.     

Macroeconomic factors, consumer behavior, and bankcard default rates

Over the period from 1981 through 1999, we investigate the relationship between bankcard delinquencies and key macroeconomic variables. Changes in the proportion of accounts in default are statistically related to the consumer debt ratio. When the delinquency rate is calculated based on the number of dollars outstanding, it is related to the total amount of revolving debt. We also find evidence consistent with a pattern of selective default behavior, in which consumers will default on bankcard debt before defaulting on other types of installment loans.     

Donation dilemmas: A consumer behaviour perspective

With the aim of developing a better understanding of an individual's donation decision process this paper focuses on the information search undertaken by a prospective donor. It discusses the level of problem solving that characterises various donations, using the body of consumer decision-making literature to provide a theoretical framework for the investigation. From the results it appears that donor decision making follows a similar pattern to consumer buying decisions. There appears to be a low incidence of extended problem solving, even where relatively large donations are concerned. Examples of limited problem solving and routine response behaviour, by contrast, were more prevalent.     

A nonparametric test of weak separability and consumer preferences

Two stochastic nonparametric procedures are developed to evaluate the significance of violations of weak separability. When the data have measurement error, we show that the necessary and sufficient weak separability conditions of Varian [Varian, H., 1983. Nonparametric tests of consumer behavior. Review of Economic Studies 50, 99–110] must also satisfy the Afriat inequalities. The tests detect weak separability with high probability for weakly separable data. In addition, the procedures correctly reject weak separability for both nonseparable and random utility simulated data sets. The tests also fail to reject weak separability for a monetary and consumption data set which suggests that measurement error may be the source of the observed violations.     

Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior: Are they accurate and useful?

This paper investigates empirically whether consumer sentiments indices, based on surveys complied by GfK, forecast household consumption types for the UK. Firstly, we use a quantitative equation approach to assess whether the indices are able to forecast household consumption growth in addition to traditional variables, which are included as control variables. Subsequently, using qualitative directional analysis, we investigate whether the indices are accurate and useful predictors as well. We find that, broadly speaking, both the headline, or aggregate, and the major purchasing indices have some predictive powers in addition to the control variables and are also directionally accurate and useful.     

A dynamic almost ideal demand system incorporating consumer expectations

In this paper a theoretical framework is presented for the analysis of the effects of psychological, perceptual or expectational factors on household expenditure within a complete demand system. The model was estimated using the Consumer Sentiment Index, which represents an index of consumer perceptions of economic conditions. Evidence was found for significant expectational effects on five of nine expenditure categories—food at home, alcohol, housing, durables and other services. The direct expectation effects were found to be small in size. The results demonstrate the model's potential usefulness as a framework for modelling consumer behavioral responses to expectations and for evaluating the welfare implications of policy-induced changes in expectations.     

Entrepreneurial intention among University students in Malaysia: integrating self-determination theory and the theory of planned behavior

The present study endeavors to develop a deeper understanding of the motivational processes involved in intentional entrepreneurial behavior. For this purpose, it integrates the social cognitive approach of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the organismic theory of motivation of self-determination theory (SDT). More specifically, it tests the role of basic psychological needs of autonomy, competence and relatedness as defined in SDT in shaping university students’ attitudes and intentions toward entrepreneurship. The sample of this study consisted of 438 (Males?=?166, Females =272) 3rd and 4th year university students from four Malaysian Public Universities. The results of the study show that the model strongly explains about 71% of the variance in entrepreneurial intention. Basic psychological needs of autonomy, competence and relatedness have a strong indirect impact on entrepreneurial intention via their attitudinal antecedents: attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. This indicates a full-mediational model, where the attitudinal factors operated as transmitters of effects from the distal constructs of SDT on entrepreneurial intention. These findings confirm that both SDT and the TPB provide complementary explanations of the motivational processes of entrepreneurial behavior. The study contributes to the existing knowledge by providing a theory-based understanding of the role of motivations in the formation of entrepreneurial intentions. It opens the way for future research to analyze how alternative motivations may affect new venture creation, survival and success.

     

The durability of consumer durables

The life span of a product is a key component in assessing its environmental impact. Until very recently, however, product durability was far from prominent in the environmental debate. This has begun to change due to mounting concern about waste, the prospect of producer ‘take back’ schemes and the importance of quality in highly competitive international markets. This has led to product durability emerging on the business and environment agenda. This paper explores the significance of product life spans and identifies currently available data on the life-span of consumer durables. It defines product life and argues that, from an environmental perspective, optimum product life, rather than maximum product life should be the goal. It suggests that potential advantages to businesses of manufacturing and retailing products with longer life spans include improved environmental foresight (i.e. a greater responsiveness to new social trends, changes in consumer behaviour and tighter government regulations), an enhanced reputation for quality, greater potential market share and increased customer loyalty. Addressing claims that manufacturers deliberately make products with the intention that they should have life spans below the known technical potential, the paper identifies some of the influences upon manufacturers which encourage shorter product life spans. Finally, some means by which longer life products might be encouraged are proposed.     

Dynamic competition with consumer inertia

We study a framework where two duopolists compete repeatedly in prices and where chosen prices potentially affect future market shares, but certainly do not affect current sales. This assumption of consumer inertia causes (noncooperative) coordination on high prices only to be possible as an equilibrium for low values of the discount factor. High discount factors increase opportunism and aggressiveness of competition to such an extent that high prices are no longer sustainable as an equilibrium outcome. Moreover, we find that both monopolization and enduring market share and price fluctuations (price wars) can be equilibrium path phenomena without requiring exogenous shocks in market or firm characteristics.