East European prospective members of the European Union under globalisation pressure

Central Eastern European countries will have to find their place in the EU confronted to globalisation challenge. Up to now, except Hungary, becoming an important EU partner in technology intensive industries, they are relying on their labour cost advantage and exchanging lower for higher quality goods. Accession to the EU, changing trading conditions and implying FDI concentration, will be a heavy challenge.     

Britain,EMU and the European economy

In January 1999, 11 member countries of the European Union ‘irrevocably’ locked the foreign exchange values of their currencies to the euro, and they committed themselves to abandon their currencies in favour of the euro in 2002. As a result, these countries ceased to operate independent monetary policies. Monetary policy for the whole euro‐zone became the responsibility of the European Central Bank (ECB), whose primary objective is to maintain a low and stable rate of price inflation for the euro currency. The rules governing Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were laid down in the treaty of Maastricht in 1992. As conditions for entry to EMU, the treaty specified ‘convergence criteria’ which consisted of upper limits for several macroeconomic aggregates including, notably, a 3 per cent maximum for the ratio of the public sector deficit to GDP and 60 per cent for the ratio of public debt to GDP.1 In February 1998 the 11 applicant countries submitted statistical analyses relating to their satisfaction of these conditions. Despite doubts as to whether some of them had strictly met the conditions, the European Commission deemed them all eligible, and the euro was launched.2 The British government, though more clearly eligible than most other EU countries on the basis of the convergence criteria, decided to defer its decision on entry. In this paper we consider the arguments for and against Economic and Monetary Union, and in particular whether it would be in Britain’s interest to join. We begin with a brief review of the state of the European economy and an analysis of the first year performance of the new Euro currency. 1 Upper limits were also set on the rate of inflation, at 1.5 percentage points above the average inflation rate of the three countries whose inflation was the lowest, and on long term interest rates, at 2 percentage points above the average of the rates prevailing in the three low inflation countries. An additional condition applied to exchange rate stability relative to the EU average for the two years prior to entry.
1 Notable cases were Belgium and Italy with debt to GDP ratios of 122.2 per cent and 121.6 per cent, respectively. Presumably, these countries were allowed membership under Article 104c(2) of the treaty which allows the debt to GDP ratio to be exceeded if ‘. . . the ratio is sufficiently diminishing and approaching 60 per cent at a satisfactory pace’. The reader is left to judge whether Belgium and Italy fell within the ‘spirit’ of this article.
     

From Bismarck to Maastricht: The March to European Union and the Labor Compact

This paper considers the likely impact that European Union (EU) will have on the labor compact. It is argued that, despite increased economic integration in Europe, countries will still be able to maintain distinct labor practices if they are willing to bear the cost of those practices. The incidence of many social protections probably already falls on workers. In addition, it is argued that imperfect mobility of capital, labor, goods and services will limit the pressure that integration will place on the labor compact. Evidence is presented suggesting that labor mobility among EU countries has not increased after the elimination of remaining restrictions on intra-EU labor mobility in 1993. Moreover, immigration from non-EU countries, which is much larger than intra-EU migration, has declined since 1993. Evidence is also reviewed suggesting that the demand for social protection rises when countries are more open, and therefore subject to more severe external shocks. This finding suggests that increased economic integration and European Monetary Union (EMU) could lead to greater demand for social protection. The U.S. experience with state workers' compensation insurance programs is offered as an example of enduring differences in labor market protections in highly integrated regional economies with a common currency.     

Some perspectives on currency relations between EMU and Central and East European EU accession countries

Central and East European prospective EU members are natural candidates for a subsequent admission to the European Monetary Union (EMU). This poses questions on (a) the optimal EMU accession time for Central European EU aspirants, and (b) the optimal exchange rate system in preparing for EMU accession. This paper discusses related issues and introduces four special issue papers on the subject.     

R&D subsidies and productivity in eastern European countries

This paper shows that R&D subsidy policies at the European Union (EU) and national levels stimulated labor productivity in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) in the years after their entry to the EU. However, the average impact of national funding on labor productivity was higher for countries in the Western control group than in the CEEC sample. EU R&D subsidies compensated the CEEC in part for the greater innovation impact of Western economies. Although they crowded out some R&D subsidies by local governments at the country level, the EU subsidies crowded in many national and local subsidies at the firm level. Local/regional state innovation aid to enterprises encouraged no increase in labor productivity in all but one of the sample CEEC countries. These impacts are assessed in a sequential structural econometric model estimated using Eurostat’s collection of Community Innovation Surveys covering the years 2006–2014.     

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss of national monetary policy autonomy and internal exchange rate flexibility inside the EMU area. However, external exchange rate adjustment, i.e. adjustment of the euro exchange rate, remains a feasible adjustment mechanism. This paper analyses how internal and external exchange rate flexibility affect macroeconomic adjustment in EMU and non-EMU countries. To do so, a model is constructed in which three countries interact: two countries that decide to form a monetary union and a third country that does not participate in the monetary union. Numerical simulations of a representative example are used to characterise the adjustment dynamics induced by monetary and fiscal policies before and after the start of the EMU.     

The rise and fall of social partnership in postsocialist Europe: the Commonwealth of Independent States

Traditional trade unions throughout the postsocialist world embraced ‘social partnership’ as a means to secure their institutional survival in a radically changed economic and political environment. The commitment of national governments to social partnership ebbed and flowed through the 1990s, but it was confirmed, at least rhetorically, in Central and Eastern Europe by the prospect and requirements of accession to the European Union. This article explores the fate of social partnership in the ‘other half’ of Europe, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, where social dialogue has largely been abandoned and trade unions alternatively marginalised or subordinated to the state apparatus.     

European Works Councils in Central and Eastern Europe: varieties of institution building among French service sector multinationals

European Works Councils (EWCs) were launched as important institutions capable of helping workers coordinate responses to multinational corporations (MNCs). Euro‐optimists hoped they might help the transfer of the European social model to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Euro‐pessimists believed they lacked the capacity to be effective and suggested EU enlargement might encourage ‘a race to the bottom’ in Western Europe. This article focuses on the behaviours of eight service sector French‐origin multinationals in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland. It finds that they generally adapt to the host country social model. However, while most keep their subsidiaries in separate compartments, investing little in EWC institution building, some are more ready to invest in stronger EWC institutions and to use them as an integrating tool.     

Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries

The paper focuses on the impact of currency boards on fiscal policy in transition economies. Starting with an overview of theoretical and empirical studies in the related area, it tests for the interaction between monetary policy regimes and fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries who aim for the membership in the European Union. The theoretical background of this study lies in the model of Tornell and Velasco (1998). They demonstrate that fiscal transfers do not ultimately depend on the chosen exchange rate and monetary policy, but only on the worlds real rate of interest and the rate of time preference of the fiscal authority. A sample of 10 accession candidates constitutes a group of countries which go through similar macroeconomic stabilisation processes but have chosen different nominal anchors. The paper investigates whether there are any systematic differences between those countries with a currency board arrangement and those without. The empirical evidence suggests that currency boards enhance fiscal discipline in Central and Eastern European countries.     

Inter- and intra-industry linkages as a determinant of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper uses an unpublished dataset on disaggregated foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), and is rooted in new economic geography literature. A 10% increase in access to suppliers based in the FDI recipient country or access to the EU15 market for intermediate goods increases FDI by about 2% in Central European countries and by 1% in Eastern European countries. We argue that Central (core) European countries specialise in upstream industries and re-export goods toward FDI-origin countries, while Eastern (periphery) European countries are also involved in this production chain, but to a lesser extent.     

Public Management as a University Discipline in New European Union Member States

Abstract

Many market-type mechanisms were introduced in the public administration reforms in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Therefore public administration higher education in CEE should prepare not only classical public administrators but also public managers to operate in this new environment. This paper summarizes our research results on three new Central European members. The focus is on the scale of public management (PM) programmes, on the proportion of PM courses in the curricula of accredited PM programmes and on the dominant teaching approaches.     

Trust and corruption: The influence of positive and negative social capital on the economic development in the European Union

Why are the Scandinavian countries in the European Union significantly richer than Southern/Eastern European countries? We try to answer this question from an empirical social capital perspective. In particular, we are interested in the interplay of social trust as a positive and corruption as a negative manifestation of social capital. The opportunities to provide answers by multivariate modelling are, however, limited by several problems related to small sample size and low degrees of freedom. Regarding these problems, we test the interrelating influences between positive and negative social capital by applying a path model that accounts for Granger-like causal effects. Our empirical results, referring to a sample of up to 25 EU countries, show that corruption might harm poor European countries but is not able to affect social trust. However, corruption in itself means that resources end up in the wrong places and not in socioeconomically optimal investments. There is, therefore, a direct damaging effect of corruption on wealth. This implies that economic actors have to invest higher transaction and control costs which will bind resources to non-productive purposes and thus destroy economic wealth. Most remarkable is that the augmentation of positive social capital could work as an effective counterforce to corruption, even if it does not compensate for the economic loss caused by corruption. Thus, adding the social capital perspective may contribute to understanding present day variation in the wealth of European nations by the damaging effect of corrupt activities and/or the positive force of social trust.     

Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt-income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a 'game' framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.
The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one-off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.     

Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area

This paper compares the cyclical properties of fiscal policies across the 12 original eurozone countries and the future members from Central and Eastern Europe. For the sample period 1995–2005, the fiscal balance exhibits less inertia and is more counter-cyclical in Central and Eastern European countries than in members of the eurozone. The main differences arise from the revenue side. Differences in the formation of fiscal policy between current and future eurozone countries decrease over time. Both autonomous and counter-cyclical fiscal policies have little or no effect on cyclical variability in the eurozone countries, while such policies appear to be effective in Central and Eastern European countries.     

Engagement in European social dialogue: an investigation into the role of social partner structural capacity

Despite the importance of social dialogue for the European social model, there has been little attention to the factors that account for social partner engagement with European social dialogue. On the basis of data from 28 European sectoral social dialogue committees, this article investigates structural factors that account for the conclusion of European sectoral social dialogue agreements. It is found that actors' organisational density is a necessary but not sufficient factor for successful European social dialogue and four different categories of sectoral social partner engagement with European social dialogue are identified.     

The UK and European Monetary Union: Why we should not stand aside

Ahead of next year's IGC David Currie considers the case for European monetary Union. He argues overall that EMU is desirable, though political arguments dominate the economic ones, which are finely balanced. he also argues that the UK should participate if other member states proceed to EMU, because of the dangers of marginalisation in Europe and of reduced attractiveness as a location for inward investment.     

An Analysis of the Convergence of the Composition of Public Expenditures in European Union Countries

The literature on fiscal policies is paying increasing attention to the impact of the composition of public expenditures on long‐term economic growth. Public policy endogenous growth models recommend to change the composition of public expenditures to items considered productive expenditures. In this sense, European institutions are encouraging the rise in the share of productive outlays like public investments, R&D, and active labor market policies, among others. The article analyzes whether these recommendations are followed by European Union countries and whether a convergence to a new pattern of public finances with a higher share of those items considered productive expenditures by European institutions is arising.     

What role for the European Monetary Institute?

To mark this month's move of the European Monetary Institute to Frankfurt, David Currie examines its role in the light of the 1992/93 ERM crisis. He argues that the EMI has an important role to play in coordinating European monetary policy whether or not progress is made towards EMU, and the track record of the EMI will be critical for the transit to a European Central Bank if it occurs.     

Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets

This paper investigates contagion to European stock markets associated with seven big financial shocks between 1997 and 2002. We apply methods using heteroscedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficients to discriminate between contagion, interdependence and breaks in stock markets relationships. The analysis focuses on a comparison between developed Western European markets and emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe. We find modest evidence of significant instabilities in cross-market linkages after the crises. The Central and Eastern European stock markets are not more vulnerable to contagion than Western European markets.     

An economic offer they cannot refuse! Economic expectations on incumbent government support in Core and periphery European countries

The importance of economic conditions on election outcomes is well established. This paper supplements the standard approach to economic voting by assessing government support from a highly debated perspective of European spaces: Core countries and Periphery countries (Central Eastern European and Southern countries). The paper reveals that the economic conditions perceived by voters in the future are expected to differently affect incumbent government support depending on the macroeconomic position of the country. This paper finds that, contrary to Core countries' electors, voters in periphery countries are keener to support the incumbent governments if the economic outputs are positive. It concludes that positive economic expectations are strongly and positively associated with incumbent government support, regardless of previous vote choice, while negative economic expectations are strongly and negatively associated with government support.