能源回弹效应的理论演进与经验证据:一个文献述评

文章基于能源回弹效应相关研究文献的发展脉络与逻辑关系,从能源回弹效应的提出与界定、理论机制、经验证据和限制政策四个层面,对国内外有关能源回弹效应的理论演进与经验证据的研究成果进行了系统的梳理与总结.研究发现:(1)从研究框架看,新古典增长理论与新古典微观经济学理论这两类研究,在各自所拓展的研究方向上正殊途同归于对宏观经济层面回弹效应的探究;(2)现有研究尤其是理论研究的主要局限是,未能对能源效率的内生化处理予以足够的重视,这在很大程度上限制了其对理论和现实的解释力;(3)对回弹效应的有效限制必须通过多管齐下的政策组合措施才有可能实现.     

基于行为经济学的自主创新决策驱动模式分析

行为经济学与其它学科的交叉发展,产生了众多的分支学科。应用行为经济学的理论框架,研究了影响企业自主创新决策的心理模式:羊群效应、框架依赖、损失厌恶、有限理性,并对如何激发企业的自主创新行为提出了解决方案。     

论税收的组织替代效应——兼评供给学派的减税主张

本文首先分析了供给学派减税主张的逻辑，指出其分析方法和其所依据的经济增长理论的新古典本质；然后运用新兴古典经济学的分析方法考察了税收对社会分工水平和模式的影响，提出了税收的“组织替代效应”这一新概念，最后将古典的经济增长观纳入供给学派的逻辑框架，重新审视和评价了供给学派的减税建议，并对供给学派的方案在发达国家和发展中国家的适用性作了一个粗略的理论预测。     

新兴古典经济学有关二元经济形成与消失理论简评

新兴古典经济学家寻根问底，能够运用现代数学工具对新古典经济学不能解决的古典经济学核心问题——分工与专业化经济组织问题进行深人研究，建立了一派学说——新兴古典经济学。新兴古典经济学抛弃了新古典经济学的缺陷，与实际接近了许多。因而新兴古典经济学家能够运用其解释新古典经济学不能解释的经济发展问题。但新兴古典经济学也有令人不解的地方。     

新制度经济学对传统学术理论的冲击

新制度经济学兴起于20世纪70-80年代,通过对制度展开经济分析,逐步发展了产权理论、组织理论学等多个分支学科对正统的新古典经济学、传统的社会学、传统的经济历史学等学术理论产生了巨大的冲击,具有里程碑式的重要意义。     

情绪介入经济决策研究的演变路径——从古典经济学到神经经济学

情绪曾是古典经济学研究经济决策的出发点.新古典经济学的理性决策模型却把情绪视为干扰因素而加以排除.行为经济学从有限理性、偏好逆转和认知偏差中"发现"了情绪对经济决策的重要影响.神经经济学则运用fRMI等脑成像技术揭示了情绪影响经济决策的脑神经机制.文章从经济学的发展过程探讨情绪影响经济决策的演变路径,试图运用不同分析视角形成情绪与决策关系的一般分析框架及其适用条件.最后探讨了情绪与决策关系研究的未来发展方向.     

新制度经济学革命:路径与方向

20世纪60、70年代,新制度经济学开始在经济学领域的诸多方面实现了理论突破,许多经济学者大胆预言"新制度经济学革命"即将到来.不过随着研究的深入,人们发现新制度经济学并未真正突破新古典分析框架,只是在多个层面上对新古典经济学进行了继承和发展.文章在简要评价新古典经济学学说体系的基础上,归纳新制度经济学的三条主要革新路径,通过与主流经济学的综合比较,对新制度经济学各分支革新的路径与方向进行了评价.     

演化经济学对新古典经济学的超越及其理论框架的形成

演化经济学在批判新古典经济学的基础上不断发展和完善自己的理论框架,跨越了主流经济学理性人、最优、均衡的藩篱,提出历史演化、满意、多样性假说,并借用生物学基因的遗传机制、变异机制、选择机制的运作,为解释经济系统演化过程提供了一个动态变化的研究框架,使经济学面临着更大的革命.     

基于技术进步的不同产业能源回弹效应研究——以产业面板数据的实证分析

能源的回弹效应能够不断提高能源效率,但同时也会增加能源的消耗.本文采用新古典经济增长理论,基于产业面板数据估算技术进步的贡献率,运用2009--2015年主要产业数据实证对技术进步引起的能源回弹效应进行了分析.结果表明,能源回弹效应因产业而异,2009--2015年第一产业能源回弹效应较小,其它产业均存在不同程度的能源回弹效应.最后,提出产业结构调整、能源价格改革等能源消费政策建议.     

经济学范式的转换及其异同:马克思和凯恩斯

在经济思想发展史上,经济学分析范式的转换经历了多次更迭与交替。与居于现代主流经济学地位、以强调技术关系分析为核心的新古典范式不同,马克思经济学和凯恩斯经济学基于市场经济或资本主义经济竞争的博弈规则,认为资本主义生产目的即在于获取按货币价值计算的利润或货币增殖;通过对现实资本主义经济关系的剖析,马克思和凯恩斯强调了资本主义货币经济的本质,并表明了有效需求问题的根源。相反,建立在生产函数基础上的新古典理论完全脱离了资本主义竞争的分析框架,其异质品模型的加总悖论直至20世纪50-60年代的“剑桥资本争论”公布于众。从范式意义上讲,马克思经济学与凯恩斯经济学都是对主流理论的一次思维范式的革命,它们各自确立的经济学体系都通过对新古典理论的扬弃建立了一种新的经济学范式基础、理论体系和分析方法,这正是其经济学革命之共同意义所在。     

The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions

The rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services. This increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved. If the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency.The nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long-running dispute with energy economics. This paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect, to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect. The focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service — indirect and economy-wide rebound effects are not discussed.Beginning with Khazzoom's original definition of the rebound effect, we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based. First, we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias. Second, we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables. Third, we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved ‘time efficiency’, the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time. Each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for. We discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect.     

Technological progress and sustainable development: what about the rebound effect?

Sustainability concepts that rest on the idea of resource- or energy-efficiency improvements due to technological progress tend to overestimate the potential saving effects because they frequently ignore the behavioral responses evoked by technological improvements. Efficiency improvements also affect the demand for resources and energy, and often an increase in efficiency by 1% will cause a reduction in resource use that is far below 1% or, sometimes, it can even cause an increase in resource use. This phenomenon is commonly labeled the rebound effect, which is well-known among energy economists, but never attracted much attention in ecological economics. The paper starts with the traditional neoclassical analysis of the rebound effect in a partial equilibrium framework that concentrates on the demand of one particular energy service such as mobility or room temperature. It also provides an overview of some of the main empirical studies based on this model that mostly confirm the existence of the rebound effect, but are controversial about its actual importance. However, we have to go beyond the neoclassical single-service model in order to take care of the variety of possible feedback affecting energy use. The paper presents two important expansions of the single-service model in order to show the potential relevance of the rebound effect to ecological economics. First, it is shown that in a multi-services model it proves to be difficult to make general statements about the relevance of the rebound effect. In this case, the overall effect of an increase in energy efficiency on total energy use depends on the on the assumptions about the substitutability between the services considered and the direction of the income effect. Second, the paper also tries to take care of the fact that changes in resource use or energy use are frequently just ‘side-effects’ of other forms of technological progress. Especially technological change of a time-saving nature can have a large influence on energy use as many time-saving devices (for example, faster modes of transport) require an increase in energy consumption that is frequently reinforced by a ‘rebound effect with respect to time’. This effect will be especially strong when wages are high and, at the same time, energy prices are low, as is currently the case in most industrialized countries. Consequently, the paper also provides a strong argument for the introduction of energy taxes.     

西方可持续性经济学研究的主要理论问题及其评价

可持续性经济学是20世纪60年代以来在西方经济学界逐渐形成并发展起来的一门新兴的、交叉型和应用型经济学科。尽管西方经济学界对可持续性经济学从概念、特征、研究范畴、研究方法和制度背景等诸多方面并没有形成一个统一而明确的认识,但可持续性经济学的有关理论已成为可持续发展实践的基础和重要指导。通过对西方可持续性经济学研究的主要理论问题进行梳理与评价,一方面可以揭示西方在该学科领域一些关键理论问题上的研究进展,另一方面也为我国构建具有中国特色、适合中国国情的可持续性经济学的理论和实践提供借鉴。     

论法经济学建立的经济学基础

法经济学体系的建立,依赖于两大理论作基础,一是经济学理论,二是法理学基础。在经济学方面,古典自由主义的经济学说为法经济学提供了思想武器,新古典经济学为法经济学提供了重要的理论基础,新制度经济学则直接为法经济学提供了方法论基础。     

自生能力、经济转型与新古典经济学的反思

现有的新古典经济学理论体系把企业具有自生能力作为暗含的前提。但是 ,转型中国家和其他许多发展中国家的企业却因政府的赶超愿望 ,进入不具比较优势的产业而不具自生能力。当经济中大量企业缺乏自生能力时 ,实行根据新古典经济学所制定的改革或转型政策 ,往往达不到预期效果 ,而且 ,可能给社会带来巨大痛苦。本文主张 ,在分析社会主义经济、转型经济和发展经济问题时 ,放弃现有的新古典经济学体系中企业具有自生能力的暗含前提 ,把企业是否具有自生能力作为一个具体的考虑变量 ,这是新古典经济学理论的必要发展。     

The New Economics of Labor Migration: Beware of Neoclassicals Bearing Gifts

Abstract

Until the emergence of the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) in the 1980s, migration scholars were largely divided into two main theoretical camps, viz. the neoclassical and historical-structural approaches to migration. Against this background, the NELM presented itself as a theoretical ‘third way’ between the two latter approaches, and purported to reconcile agency and structure in a way previously unachieved by either of them. While those pretensions gained a fair amount of acceptance and popularity, this paper argues that they are fundamentally misleading, and that the NELM is little more than a slightly more sophisticated avatar of the neoclassical approach to migration, whose fundamental weaknesses it has not, and cannot, shed. This paper further argues that, in so doing, the NELM effectively constitutes migration theory's own instance of economics imperialism, i.e. the attempt to advance the fundamental tenets of neoclassical economics (methodological individualism and the assumption of optimizing rationality) within the context of the study and interpretation of various social phenomena. In order to put forth these arguments, this paper provides a summary presentation of the standard neoclassical theory of migration, the historical-structural heterodoxy and the NELM; highlights why it is that the NELM should be regarded as a ‘reworked’ version of the neoclassical theoretical framework and discusses its inception in the context of the ‘information-theoretic revolution’ in economics; and argues for a new and improved ‘historical-structural synthesis’ as a more satisfactory alternative to both the NELM and the standard neoclassical theory.     

What If There Are No Conventional Price Mechanisms?

Inspired by Frederic (“Fred”) S. Lee’s theoretical contribution to institutional-heterodox economics, I make the case that the neoclassical price mechanism is not only flawed, but also irrelevant for the study of actual coordination mechanisms, hence the price mechanism — as a theory as well as a way of thinking — should be discarded. While this position was addressed by early institutionalists, starting with Thorstein Veblen, later institutionalists have not completely rejected the price mechanism. The sympathy for the price mechanism has prevented institutionalists (and other heterodox economists) from fully developing an alternative theoretical framework concerning how actual economic activities are organized. I, therefore, provide an institutionalist-heterodox framework of the provisioning process focusing on business enterprise activities. This framework shows how institutional economics becomes more refined and useful when it is married to other traditions in heterodox economics, in particular, Marxian, social, and post-Keynesian economics. Such an integrative approach is what Fred Lee showed through his work toward producing a better theory and policy for the underlying population.     

均衡与演化——对经济学发展方向的思考

经济学研究中的均衡主义与演化主义历来存在争论.本文在对经济均衡主义和演化主义的形成、内容及特征详细分析的基础上,对经济学体系的发展状况进行了初步的检讨.本文认为,对均衡主义与演化主义在一个更为一般的框架内进行整合和创造性发展,具有重大的理论价值.     

Metaphors of Knowledge in Economics

"Knowledge" takes a central place in economics. This paper shows that the metaphor pervasively used in neoclassical economics to understand knowledge is that of "capital". Taking capital as a metaphor of knowledge introduces problems in neoclassical economic theory, as becomes apparent when economics addresses issues of learning and technological development. Instead, it is argued that economists could learn from what philosophers such as Gilbert Ryle and Michael Polanyi have said about how to understand knowledge.