THE OUTLOOK FOR 1988

We have updated our October forecast to take into account recent events in equity and foreign exchange markets as well as the Autumn Statement. As far as the prospects for the world economy are concerned, we have taken a gloomier view than the Treasury. On this basis we also obtain slower growth in the UK next year: output is forecast to rise 2.2 per cent compared with 2.8 per cent in October and 2.7 per cent in the official forecast. Inflation and the balance of payments are little changed from October. For next year's Budget we continue to assume a cut in the standard rate of income tax to 25 per cent though, on our calculations, this requires a PSBR it 1988–9 of newly £2bn whereas the Autumn Statement forecast assumed a constant PSBR of £1bn     

POLICING FOR THE PEOPLE

Increased spending on law and order over the last decade has not been matched by reductions in crime. The government's claim to have reduced crime does not reflect reality and the public know this. The way to rebuild public confidence and tackle crime is to put more police officers back on the streets. This article argues that in order to do this, four key reforms of the police are needed: a reduction in bureaucracy and central intervention; greater accountability to local communities; more co-operation between forces; and the modernisation of working practices.     

SKEWNESS FOR THE WEIBULL FAMILY

Abstract. The skewness of the Weibull family of distributions is discussed for all values of the shape parameter. This class includes unimodal probability densities for which the coefficient of skewness μ₃/o³ is positive, but the order of the mean, median and mode is μ < m < M. For values of the shape parameter used in practice the distributions are skewed to the right by a well accepted definition of skewness.     

为培训把脉

培训,作为人力资源开发的主要手段,在企业中越来越受到重视,诸多企业纷纷开始着手建立自己的人才培训机制,但目前的企业培训还存在着许多观念上和操作上的误区。笔者作为人力资源的研究者和从业者,历经了培训在一个大型集团公司的发展过程,也在工厂、事业部、集团三级机构的相关职位工作过,此期间产生了许多想法,在此一一列出,举症求治,与各位同行商榷。一、一针见血M集团发展由小到大,培训工作从无到有,到现在的规模和阶段,在内部还有许多人(非人力资源部门)的培训意识没跟上:1、急功近利,希望药到病除。管理、运作、生产出现了问题,几经…     

EDUCATING AMARETCH: PRIVATE SCHOOLS FOR THE POOR AND THE NEW FRONTIER FOR INVESTORS

The accepted wisdom says that the poor need billions of dollars more in donor aid for state education. But this ignores the reality that poor parents are abandoning government schools to send their children to 'budget' private schools that charge very low fees, affordable to parents on minimum wages. Recent research shows that private schools for the poor are superior to government schools – teachers are more committed, the provision of inputs better and educational outcomes better – even after controlling for background variables. All this is accomplished for a fraction of the per-pupil teacher cost of government schools. The development community could therefore assist the poor by extending access to private schools through targeted vouchers. There are also opportunities for investors to contribute through microfinance-type loans, dedicated education investment funds and joint ventures with educational entrepreneurs, including the development of brands of budget private schools to help solve the information problem facing poor parents.     

“一线大佬”圆桌论剑 让“鲍鱼”更贵“盒饭”更实惠 “五月楼市走向求解”沙龙直击

只有准确地把脉未来,才能稳健地立足现在。 今年一季度广佛楼市赛事已见分晓,＂‘V＇形反转、僧多粥少、量低价高＂成为跑赢这场赛事的三个关键词。     

THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR IMMIGRATION1

Immigration into the UK has increased in response to high labour demand in the recent past. This additional supply of labour has helped keep interest rates lower, and growth higher, than they might have been otherwise. The longer‐term impact of higher immigration may be an increase in trend productivity growth. Although the evidence on such long‐term economic effects is incomplete, there is no reason to believe market principles ‐ or fundamental freedoms ‐ are any less relevant when it comes to flows of people rather than goods or capital.     

THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR MANAGING INVESTMENTS

Abstract Stress and distress are unavoidable aspects of dealing with the vagaries of financial markets and financial advisers. The purpose of this paper is to try to reduce the discomfort in dealing with investment advisers, and to make the journey up and down the financial mountain a little less stressful and more satisfying. The commandments deal with defining investment policies precisely, diversifying asset classes, choosing a consistent benchmark for investment policies, structuring precisely the asset allocation process, defining risk and risk management procedures, monitoring the portfolio carefully, matching the allocation and investment horizons, being active or passive according to investment policies, being agnostic about model forecasts and being aware that, while buy low and sell high is a truism, investors and financial advisers are only human and therefore make mistakes.     

中小企业服务体系建没试点工作正稳步推进

自2000年国家经贸委为推进全国中小企业的改革与发展，在全国选择了具有代表性的十个试点城市进行中小企业服务体系试点，经过近三年的努力，试点工作取得了实质性的进展，有力地促进了试点城市中小企业的发展。现将一些试点城市的做法和经验介绍给读者。     

THE CASE FOR A COMMUNITY TRANSACTION ENGINE: GETTING COASE FOR THE TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY

New types of marketplace are now becoming viable. They can slash transaction costs, bring new resources into the economy and expand economic opportunity. These markets can be grown by the private sector. But, to deliver their full potential, they need a change in the mindset of government.     

为发展服务是新时期审计的主题

依法加强对财政、财务收支真实、合法、效益情况的审计,维护社会主义市场经济秩序在新旧体制转轨时期,我国财政经济领域有法不依的现象大量存在,违反财经法规的问题较为普遍。在财政性资金收入、支出、管理等各个环节都存在一些影响发展的较为突出的问题。这些问题的产生和存在     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RELATIVE RISK AVERSION AND THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION: A SURVEY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEMAND FOR LIFE INSURANCE

The expected utility hypothesis has been widely used in the construction of economic models and numerous difficulties are encountered in attempting to take into account preferences toward risk in a real‐world setting. More recently, attention has focused on comparative studies in economics and business in an international framework and problems related to the hypothesis of relative risk aversion (RRA). One ambiguous hypothesis is the relationship between the level of RRA and the level of education, which has been found either positive or negative. From a causality point of view, it may be argued that investors with a high level of education are less risk averse, but it may also be argued that less risk‐averse individuals choose to pursue a higher level of education. The purpose of this paper is to survey the empirical literature on this subject. It provides evidence that risk aversion is negatively correlated with higher education and human development. The results have important implications for macroeconomic empirical studies and the demand for financial assets and more specifically on the demand for life insurance. Assuming the same degree of RRA for utility‐maximizing consumers should be limited to homogeneous samples.