多孩生育政策抑制了女性就业吗——基于单独二孩政策的研究

生育政策调整与女性就业的关系是当前社会普遍关心的问题。本文基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,利用单独二孩政策的外生冲击,评估单独二孩政策对女性劳动参与的影响,实证检验生育多孩与女性就业的关系。本文研究发现：(1)单独二孩政策使单独夫妇生育二孩的概率显著增加2.3%,但政策效应主要集中于34～39岁和高学历女性群体。(2)单独二孩政策并未显著降低政策目标女性的劳动参与,结果具有较好的稳健性,也不存在年龄和学历上的异质性。(3)相比于非独生子女夫妇,单独夫妇与父母公婆同住的比例明显更高,这可能是政策未显著降低单独女性劳动参与的原因。此外,幼儿园等公共照护资源供给与祖辈同住存在互补效应,因而也能抵消生育对女性就业的负向冲击。本文的研究表明,生育二孩并不必然抑制女性劳动参与。但要实现女性生育与就业的协调,需要有可替代的家庭和公共儿童照护资源做支撑。     

趋同的城乡生育意愿对生育政策调整的启示--基于北京市城乡独生子女生育意愿的比较研究

对北京市2006年和2008年的城乡独生子女生育意愿作了调查。在我国经济社会较为发达地区,城乡独生子女的生育意愿无论在生育数量还是在子女性别偏好和生育时间上都存在趋同的现象。对目前各省市在生育政策调整时城市和农村依然采取不同政策的做法提出看法。在经济社会较为发达的省市,可以推行城乡一体化的生育政策。     

生育指标和婚姻匹配*

本文通过研究中国计划生育政策改革来检验贝克尔（Becker）关于婚姻的经济学理论。中国从20世纪80年代起实行“一胎化”政策,但随后逐渐允许夫妻均为独生子女的家庭生育第二胎,即“双独二胎”政策。由于“双独二胎”实施前不同省份“一胎化”政策的执行力度不同,所以放开“双独二胎”在不同省份间的政策效果也不同。笔者利用政策实施时间前后和省份间政策力度的差异,采用二重差分的实证设计进行分析,发现“双独二胎”政策增加了独生子女之间的匹配,减少了独生子女和非独生子女的“混合匹配”。笔者建立搜寻—匹配模型对“双独二胎”政策如何影响婚姻市场均衡进行分析。二重差分的实证分析得到的证据与模型的推论相一致,实证结果在一系列检验中保持稳健。     

独生子女身份对非认知能力的影响——父母参与、家庭内部分工与子女尽责性特质

基于近年出现的“佛系青年”“躺平”等现象，本文利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，使用有序probit、工具变量法和条件混合过程(CMP)估计发现，独生子女身份对非认知能力中尽责性维度的影响存在两面性。与非独生子女相比，独生子女在主观态度上更具尽责性高分特征，但在客观行为上尽责性得分更低。在乡村样本、男孩样本和父亲从事体制内工作的样本中，独生子女身份对行为尽责性的负面影响更为明显。机制检验表明：父母参与的频率相对较高，是独生子女态度更积极的原因之一；在家庭内部分工中，独生子女较少参与家务劳动，是其行为尽责性低分特征的重要根源。本文的研究结论为父母生育决策、教养方式以及国家人口政策提供了一定启示。     

城市青年通婚圈变化及其影响因素研究—基于中国青年状况调查数据的实证分析

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心"中国城市青年状况调查"数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法,对城市青年的地域通婚圈作了研究。人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用。城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。从通婚圈角度看,"二孩生育"政策应该成为我国生育政策的最终归宿。     

生育保险、女性就业与儿童照料——基于中国微观数据的分析

本文运用中国健康和营养调查数据(CHNS),实证检验了生育保险制度对中国女性工资、工作连续性和儿童照料方式的影响。结果表明,生育保险政策在我国当前显著加强了对女性的工资歧视,但也有在长期通过提高女性工作概率和人力资本积累的连续性而改善女性就业的可能;同时,生育保险政策也带来了儿童非父母照料的显著增加和母乳喂养的不显著下降,而这二者可能对儿童发展不利。     

中国可持续发展人口条件综论

分别从数量、素质与结构角度探讨与分析了中国要实现可持续发展的人口条件。中国要实现可持续发展,生育率必须以更替水平为上限,而以略低于更替水平(如TFR=1.8)为下限。从可持续发展必须遵循的代内与代际公平的视角对中国现行生育政策进行了审视,并就国家与地区可持续发展之间的联系与区别以及其它人口可持续发展相关问题进行了讨论。     

制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

关于生育政策调整的若干问题

生育政策调整是目前敏感而备受关注的热点问题之一。就"允许生两个,就会生三个"的思维逻辑、就业压力、人口规模、政策生育率和实际生育率、人口预测与生育政策调整之间的关系进行了考察与分析,并就稳定现行生育政策与统筹解决人口问题以及生育政策调整与计生部门职能转变等问题展开了讨论。对人口发展中的越南与海外华人现状作了考察分析。     

二孩政策地区经验的普适性及其相关问题——兼对“21世纪中国生育政策研究”的评价

在仔细研读"21世纪中国生育政策研究"课题系列研究报告的基础上,认为二孩政策试点成效卓著,试点经验具有普适性,但同时也存在某些局限。国家与学者应切实承担起指导中国基层人口与计划生育工作实践的责任。生育政策、生育水平、出生性别比、计划生育工作之间并非简单的线性关系,在生育政策制定与调整中价值判断与事实判断两者不可偏废。部分省份某些计划生育利益导向政策缺乏正当性,应该予以废除。     

Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy

In this paper, we address the issues of whether reductions in fertility increase human capital investments per child and whether twinning can identify the quantity–quality (Q–Q) trade-off. We show that estimates of the effects of twinning at higher parities on the outcomes of older children in prior studies do not identify family-size effects but are confounded by inter-child allocation effects because of the endowment deficit and close spacing of twins. However, examining the effects of twinning by birth order, net of the effects stemming from the endowment deficit of twins, can provide upper and lower bounds on the trade-off between the family size and average child quality. Our estimates, based on data from China, indicate that an extra child at parity one or at parity two, net of one component of birth-endowment effects associated with birth weight, significantly decreases the schooling progress, the expected college enrolment, grades in school and the assessed health of all children in the family. Despite the evident significant trade-off between number of children and child quality in China, the findings suggest that the contribution of the one-child policy in China to the development of its human capital was modest.     

现行生育政策研究

现行生育政策最初是在1982年中央11号文件中提出来的。它对于纠正从1978年开始提出并逐渐形成的“一胎化”生育政策的偏差,起到一定的积极作用。但是,在控制人口效果方面,现行生育政策对于抑制农村妇女的早婚早育和多胎生育、调节和疏导我国第三次生育高峰却没有多少实际意义。相反,由于现行生育政策同广大农民的生育意愿之间的差距过大,在长期执行过程中一直在给农民造成巨大的伤害,所以,迅速改变现行生育政策,彻底纠正“一胎化”生育政策给社会稳定带来的隐患,是一件刻不容缓的事情。     

信息技术、性别平等与中国农村孩童教育——来自中国营养健康调查的证据

采用中国家庭营养与健康调查(CHNS)1991-2009的数据,分析中国农村中小学孩童入学的影响因素,并着重研究移动电话、互联网、电视等信息技术的发展对中小学孩童入学率的影响。信息技术对于促进性别平等具有差异化的作用,电话、互联网技术的发展能显著提高女孩的入学率,促进性别平等;而电视对性别平等的推动作用不明显。信息技术主要通过提高女孩的就业机会,从而提高其教育回报率发挥作用。中国农村的教育投资决策不仅取决于教育回报率,而且受到社会性别文化的影响,男孩偏好越严重的地区,越倾向于对男孩进行教育投资。要巩固和加强基础教育领域性别平等的现有成果,一方面要继续推动信息技术尤其是电话、互联网技术的发展,另一方面要通过政策或法制的手段逐渐淡化或消除农村地区的男孩偏好。     

Does population control lead to better child quality? Evidence from China’s one-child policy enforcement

Scholarly evidence on the quantity-quality trade-off is mixed in part because of the identification challenge due to endogenous family size. This paper provides new evidence of the causal effect of child quantity on child quality by exploiting regional differences in the enforcement intensity of China’s one-child policy (OCP) as an exogenous source of variation in family size. Using the percentage of current mothers of primary childbearing age who gave a higher order birth in 1981, we construct a quantitative indicator of the extent of local violation of the OCP, referred to as the excess fertility rate (EFR). We then use regional differences in EFRs, net differences in pre-existing fertility preferences and socio-economic characteristics, to proxy for regional differences in OCP enforcement intensity. Using micro data from the Chinese Population Censuses, we find that prefectures with stricter enforcement of the OCP have experienced larger declines in family size and also greater improvements in children’s education. Despite the evident trade-off between family size and child quality in China, our quantitative estimates suggest that China’s OCP makes only a modest contribution to the development of its human capital.     

独生子女政策风险研究

独生子女家庭具有天然的结构性缺陷与系统性风险。中国计划生育已经陷入矛盾陷阱:一方面意识到独生子女家庭的结构性缺陷,对包括独生子女家庭在内的部分计划生育家庭实行补偿与救助,另一方面仍在继续鼓励更多独生子女的出现。独生子女政策在付出巨大的成本与代价后换来的却是高风险社会的来临,与"花钱买风险"无异。终止独生子女政策是规避独生子女家庭风险的必然选择。     

Socioeconomic Status and Obesity Gradient over Age: New Evidence from China

This paper presents a systematic analysis of the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on overweight and obesity in China and investigates how and why the SES-obesity gradient differs with age. Using a longitudinal sample drawn from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), I find that body mass index (BMI) is positively associated with SES during early childhood but becomes inversely related to childhood SES as children age into adulthood. Estimation results show that children from low SES families are less likely to be overweight or obese than their median and high SES peers. The results from subsamples stratified by living area reveal that the SES gaps of obesity are generally larger for urban residents than rural residents. Females are significantly less likely to be overweight than males in China. The SES during childhood has independent effects after controlling for respondents’ contemporaneous SES. The relationship between the contemporaneous SES of a male adult and his chance of being overweight or obese is significantly positive, while the contemporaneous SES of a female adult is negatively related to her chance of being overweight or obese.     

Does the relationship between income and child health differ across income groups? Evidence from India

This study explores the relationship between child health and socioeconomic status (health-income gradient) using the Indian Human Development Survey-II (2011-12) for children up to 5 years of age. Unlike previous studies our empirical analysis allows the gradient to vary across different income intervals using linear and cubic spline regressions. We use objective measure of child health - height-for-age Z-scores and find that an increase in income, on an average leads to reduction in prevalence of stunting. We also find differential effect of income on health across the income distribution with no effect of income on child health for very poor households. Further we explore underlying factors explaining the gradient and find that maternal health, housing quality, sanitation, non-infectious environment, media exposure to women and a safe neighbourhood are transmission channels that affect child health and together they explain almost 40% of the overall income effect. One of the major implication of our findings is that any policy to increase income of poor households should be complemented with a health policy designed specifically towards children as poor households are less likely to allocate additional income to child health.     

胎次-激化双重效应:中国生育政策与出生性别比关系的理论构建与实证研究

通过构建"胎次-激化双重效应"理论模型,解读生育政策与出生性别比关联的潜在机制,并利用宏观数据予以检验。政策与出生性别比的失衡存在直接和间接双重关系;生育政策的刚性制约和一孩半生育政策赋予胎次和激化效应特殊含义:(1)一孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比偏高、一孩半政策地区二胎及以上胎次的出生性别比极度失衡,显现"激化效应";(2)政策的多样性使部分低位女胎与男胎一样受欢迎,使一孩半政策及二孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比趋于正常,产生"胎次效应"。可见,政策越强,低位和高位女胎都不受重视,均会遭遇人工流产;相反,在相对宽松的政策环境下,低位女胎所受的歧视程度相对减弱。     

Physical activity and childhood obesity

More than one-third of American children and teenagers are considered overweight or obese. Unfortunately, obesity is often a persistent and dangerous health condition that is costly to manage. It is one of the leading causes of preventable death and combating the condition has become a national priority. To this end the two most common recommendations are: eat a healthier diet and increase physical activity. Using data from both the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adult files, this study examines the relationship between physical activity and the persistence of childhood obesity. More specifically, Cox-proportional hazard techniques are used to quantify the impact a child’s physical activity has on the likelihood that they exit an overweight or obese state. Results indicate that being physically active reduces the probability that an overweight or obese child remains overweight or obese. Strikingly, there is not a significant difference between children who are active daily and those who are active a few times per week, suggesting that being active may be more important than the frequency of activity.     

中国独生子女家庭父母的养老保障——基于公共财政的视角

独生子女政策提出三十多年后,独生子女父母开始步入老龄化,在他们未来的养老进程中,除了家庭和子女在养老方面的帮助,来自政府的财政资金帮助也是必不可少的。面对未来独生子女家庭的养老困难,需要政府和家庭共同面对,解决独生子女父母养老保障问题是家庭的责任,也是政府应尽的职责。