基于就业与住房压力视角：中国劳动力在职教育一个新的解释

本文基于“就业难”和“住房难”两大社会热点问题，就产业技术升级带来的就业压力、房价上涨带来的住房压力对中国劳动力在职教育决策的影响进行探究。使用中国家庭追踪调查数据分析发现，产业技术复杂度的增加提高了劳动力参与在职教育培训的概率，房价上涨则会降低在职教育培训参与概率。机制分析发现，产业技术升级使劳动力就业偏向高技能劳动力，对低技能劳动力造成负向冲击，高技能高报酬的信号和预期使就业压力转化为劳动力参与在职教育的动力，实现了产业技术升级与人力资本自发积累的动态演进。而高房价增加了住房负担，切实带来了住房压力，挤出了在职教育投资，抵消了技术升级引致人力资本升级的效果。优质人力资本服务的供给在一定程度上能缓解房价上涨对在职教育培训的挤出，尤其是职业技术教育资源的可得性可以强化技术升级对人力资本升级的激励作用。     

基于J-F收入法测算的山东省人力资本特点分析

文章借鉴中央财经大学中国人力资本研究中心用J-F收入法计算出来的山东省人力资本数据,并选取山东省人力资本存量、劳动力人力资本存量、人均人力资本与人均劳动力人力资本、人力资本存量与物质资本存量比率、劳动力人力资本存量与GDP比率、劳动力人力资本与人力资本存量比率等绝对指标和相对指标,分析了山东省人力资本的特点。分析结论是,山东人力资本绝对指标都保持了较快增长速度,质量也有所提升,但相对于国内生产总值以及物质资本来说,人力资本相对比重呈下降趋势,并且人力资本性别与城乡差距逐渐拉大。     

农村人力资本投资与农村劳动力转移的理论探讨——以广西壮族自治区为例

当前,农民文化知识与专业技能的欠缺已经成为制约其向城镇与非农产业进行有序转移的根本性障碍因素。由于广西经济发展相对落后,城乡教育的"二元化"问题仍然比较突出,从而直接影响到农村劳动力人力资本存量的有效提升。因此,继续加大对农村基础教育的投入力度,同时构建针对农村转移劳动力的职业教育补偿机制,以及大力发展农村经济,提高农村收入水平就成为加强广西农村人力资本投资,破解农村劳动力转移过程中"非制度性障碍"的重要途径与保障。     

东部产业为何难以向中西部转移——基于人力资本空间差异的解释

人力资本对产业的空间分布具有决定性作用,由于人力资本空间分布的差异性,导致不同地区的产业集聚能力高低有别。因此,从人力资本空间差异视角研究人力资本与产业空间转移的关系,可以为我国东部产业难以向中西部转移的原因和收效甚微的区域协调发展政策提供一种理论解释。基于城市层面数据的实证分析表明,人力资本份额增加能够有效促进地区产业份额增加,在解决了人力资本与产业空间分布的反向因果关系后,人力资本促进产业集聚的作用仍然稳健。在人力资本仍集聚于东部地区的情况下,东部制造业和文化产业自然难以向中西部地区转移。中西部地区应将人力资本政策作为产业政策的核心部分,提高中西部地区人力资本存量,是促进产业向中西部地区转移的有效应对之策。     

人力资本与中部地区“两型社会”建设

近年来，中部地区人力资本存量显著提高，但各省之间人力资本存量差距较大。因此重视人力资本的投入，优化高等教育结构，实现教育与经济的协调发展，建立推动产学研相结合的有效机制，重视农村剩余劳动力的转移、培训及完善社会保障制度等措施的实施，将有利于推动“两型”社会建设，实现中部崛起的战略。     

农村剩余劳动力转移的影响因素分析——基于江苏省数据的经验研究

基于托达罗模型,构建了经济计量模型,并结合江苏省的数据,运用协整理论探讨了农村剩余劳动力转移的长期影响因素。结果表明,预期城乡收入差距、人力资本存量和二三产业占GDP比重与农村剩余劳动力转移之间存在着长期稳定的关系。预期收入差距和人力资本存量对劳动力转移的影响较大。     

基于主成分分析法的贵州省人力资本存量估算

本文选取7个人力资本的指标体系综合评价贵州省1996-2012年人力资本存量,利用主成分分析法进行测算,得出贵州省人力资本的存量逐年不断增加,且人力资本的存量与人均教育支出和劳动力资源占总人口比重有很高的相关性,并提出了针对人力资本方面的可行性建议.     

西安市科教兴市战略中的人力资本相对优势研究

一、人力资本与经济发展现代人力资本理论的先驱者、美国芝加哥大学教授西奥多·W·舒尔茨(T.W.Shultz)在1960年提出了人力资本学说,认为人力资本是体现于人身体上的知识、能力和健康。人力资本投资是提高人力资本存量的根本途径,它主要包括教育、培训、医疗和保健、迁移4类支出。人力资本学说的中心论点就是人力资本水平的提高对于经济增长的贡献远比物质资本、劳动力数量的增加更重要,占80%以上。西蒙·库兹涅茨也提出“经济增长的主要因素是知识存量的增加,劳动生产率的提高和结构方面的变化”,他还特别强调了知识存量的增加是劳动生产…     

湖北产业结构变化与要素生产率增长——基于shift-share分析法的实证研究

在估算三次产业资本存量的基础上,本文分析了湖北省1978～1989年、1990～2010年两个阶段生产要素构成变化和产业结构变化趋势以及三次产业中劳动力和资本两大生产要素生产率的差异,并应用shift-share分析法对湖北省要素生产率增长率进行分解,发现劳动力在1978～1989年和1990～2010年一直符合"结构红利假说",而资本则在长期不符"结构红利假说",存在"结构负利"。本文对"结构红利假说"分析方法进行了拓展,动态分析各效应与要素生产率增长之间的关系。     

工资差异、城市生活能力与劳动力转移 --一个基于中国背景的分析框架

传统理论从工资收入差异角度阐释了劳动力转移的根本动因,但对我国特殊的“两栖”劳动力转移模式缺乏足够的解释力。本基于对中国劳动力转移现实背景的抽象描述,认为决定劳动力能否实现从农村到城市的永久性转移的关键在于劳动力的转移能力——城市生活能力。我国“两栖”劳动力转移模式形成的主要原因并不在于转移制度约束,而是不变制度工资、家庭决策和非人力财富匮乏导致劳动力缺乏城市生活能力。“两栖”劳动力转移的长远意义在于为下一代的永久性转移积累人力资本和非人力财富。当前,最紧迫的任务是实现进城务工农民子女教育的市民化,保障他们平等的受教育的权利;改革农村教育制度,使之向务实有效方向发展。     

Life-cycle labor-force participation of married women: historical evidence and implications

"The seven-fold increase, since 1920, in the labor force participation rate of married women [in the United States] was not accompanied by a substantial increase in average work experience among employed married women. Two data sets giving life-cycle labor-force histories for cohorts of women born from the 1880s to 1910s indicate considerable (unconditional) heterogeneity in labor-force participation. Employed married women had substantial attachment to their jobs; increased participation brought in women with little prior work experience. Average work experience among cross sections of employed married women increased from 9.1 to 10.5 years over the 1930-50 period. Implications for 'wage discrimination' are discussed."     

Do young women trade jobs for marriage? A skeptical view

This paper takes a skeptical view of the theory that the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation from 1985 to 1990 can be explained by the fact that there are fewer women now in their early twenties than there are men in their late twenties so that women currently have more bargaining power in the marriage market than men do.The paper argues that the assumption behind this theory, that for women marriage and employment are substitutes, is outmoded. It also contends that the theory leaves out the importance of full-time schooling as an activity alternative to employment and that in fact the increase in full-time schooling among young women has been much greater than the slight decrease in their labor-force participation.Several questions are raised about the statistical test of the theory and also about the reasons why the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article on the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation and featured the marriage market theory as an explanation for this purported new trend.     

Female labor-force participation,occupational choice,and fertility in developing countries

A model is presented in which female labor-force participation, family size, occupation, and the demand for mother-substitutes are joindy determined under assumptions relevant to the less developed country (LDC) context. The model is tested using (1) household data from the 1970 Puerto Rican Public Use Sample and (2) an intercountry cross-section sample. Evidence is obtained that female potential wages rising pari passu with each other will be positively associated with both labor force participation and fertility. However, it is shown that this pronatalist effect may not hold for potential wage rate rises limited to specific occupations, because of differences in occupation-child-rearing compatibility.     

Do not sell marriage short: Reply to strober

This paper explains why marriage market conditions may affect the participation of women in the labor force. In particular, it is claimed that changes in cohort size affect marriage market conditions and therefore women's labor-force participation. The paper also indicates how a theory of labor and marriage based on market analysis can possibly help women's causes. The paper first addresses theoretical issues raised by Strober. It then responds to her critique of empirical work.     

Fast Development With a Stable Income Distribution: Taiwan, 1979–94

This paper studies the mechanisms underlying the apparent stability of the income distribution in Taiwan. An original decomposition method based on micro-simulation techniques is proposed. Applied to the distribution of income in Taiwan since 1979, it permits isolating the respective impact of changes in: (a) the earning structure; (b) labor-force participation behavior; and (c) the socio-demographic structure of the population. The stability of the distribution in Taiwan appears as the result of various structural forces which happened to offset each other. The small drop observed in the inequality of individual earnings resulted from the combination of unequalizing changes in the wage structure and the effects of changes in female labor-force participation as well as in the educational structure of the population. However, the same offsetting forces, together with changes in the composition of households, resulted in a small increase in the inequality of the distribution of equivalized household income.     

再思社会科学方法论的形式主义与实质主义之争——以经济学的新进展为例

笔者从社会科学方法论中的形式主义与实质主义之争这一古老论题出发,阐明了经济学中的形式主义思想在最近半个世纪的发展是建立细节完全刻画的"全模型",并指出其背后的理念不在于建立普遍规律,而在于形成可以用以启发人们理解经验世界的辅助性认知手段。在澄清全模型方法认识论价值的同时,本文也指出其应用重点不在于形成理想化与意识形态化的叙事,而在于针对局域的经验事实,建立具有确定经验限定意涵的模型化推论,以阐明经验事实背后不易被单纯质性研究阐发的机制。当代经济学方法论显示的这一发展,可以被称为"形式主义经济学的实质主义化",对这一趋势的把握有助于揭示主流经济学独特的认识论价值。     

关于高等院校跨越发展与“债务危机”的研究

随着高等院校以校园建设和高等院校外延扩张为中心内容的跨越发展而形成的债务偿还期的到来,巨额债务作为一个现实存在是不能回避的。笔者认为,高等院校"债务危机"是发展中的"危机",有其合理的一面,解决高等院校"债务危机"一是要合理安排高校发展速度与规模;二是发展成本要有一个合理的分摊机制。     

WHAT ARE EMPLOYERS DOING TO CREATE A COMPETITIVE MARKET FOR HEALTH CARE IN THE TWIN CITIES?

Employers' willingness to control costs is a critical aspect of pro-competition strategies for the health-care market. Here, we present some of the first quantitative evidence of what employers do to control health-care costs. Our sample is 44 large private and public employers in Minnesota.
We develop a theoretical model in which the employer chooses cost-control "innovations"—along with wages, fringe benefits, and labor-force size—to maximize profits. The role of innovations is to reduce unit costs of offering fringe benefits.
Our data are from a 1982 survey. Eighty percent of the surveyed employers, representing nearly 200,000 employees, responded. Most respondents offer both indemnity insurance plans and health-maintenance organizations (HMOs). Many firms and individual health-insurance plans conduct cost-control activities, but less than half of the firms which offer HMOs have adopted level-dollar premium contributions for their family health-insurance policies. Few plans have increased their coinsurance and deductible requirements in the past five years.
We use probit equations to estimate the probability that a firm or a health plan will adopt cost-control activities. Our analysis suggests that many firms may soon make major plan-design changes to control health-care costs, although they have not yet done so.     

Migration,remittances, and inequality: estimating the net effects of migration on income distribution

"This paper examines the net effects of migration and remittances on income distribution. Potential home earnings of migrants are imputed, as are the earnings of non-migrants in migrant households, in order to construct no-migration counterfactuals to compare with the observed income distribution including remittances. The earnings functions used to impute migrant home earnings are estimated from observations on non-migrants in a selection-corrected estimation framework which incorporates migration choice and labor-force participation decisions. For a sample of households in Bluefields, Nicaragua, migration and remittances increase income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual."     

地方政府引资偏好与产业结构优化

由于地方政府不同的引资偏好和投资冲动引致的产业结构问题正日益凸显,企业和地方政府之间短期利益的博弈已进入"囚徒困境".如何在中央宏观调控政策的引导下实现地方政府管理目标创新、企业产品升级和产业结构优化,已成为政府、理论界和实业界普遍关注的焦点问题.从鼓励地方政府创新、降低企业产品转换成本、实现产业结构优化的角度展开分析,得出诱致性制度变迁有助于地方政府引导企业实现产品低成本转换和产业结构优化的结论.