农村三代家庭中子女外出务工对老年人经济支持的影响研究

劳动力外流在积极推动农村经济发展的同时也给老年人的家庭养老带来了极大的挑战.本文利用深圳市外来农村流动人口调查数据,从子女角度分析了中国农村子女外出务工三代家庭中老年人的经济支持.结果显示:首先,农村老年人与其外出务工子女三代家庭的代际支持符合合作群体模型:经济支持主要由子女流向老年父母,最有需要的老年父母获得更多的经济支持;众多老年父母给留守未成年孙子女提供了同住和生活照料帮助,老年父母也因此获得了更多的经济支持.其次,外出务工子女的城市化程度并没有影响其提供的经济支持.最后,文章指出了研究结果对完善农村养老保障制度和促进剩余劳动力外流的启示.     

子女移居国外对家庭代际支持的影响分析

利用北京地区子女移居国外的老年人家庭生活状况调查数据,采用改进的合作群体理论模型,分别从老人和子女角度综合考察了子女移居国外、其老年父母在国内居住的家庭代际支持的影响因素。子女移居国外减少了老人的日常照料;移民子女的代际关系存在向西方"接力模式"演变的趋势。留守国内的老年人对经济支持的需求得到满足,而获取日常照料的关键因素则是子女数量、居住关系以及子女的孝道意识;子女之间的分工按照资源配置最优原则和互惠原则进行,其中"养儿防老"模式被取代,女儿发挥着更为重要的作用。     

家庭子女的教育投入与亲代的养老回报——来自河北农村的调查发现

利用2008年河北农村家庭生命周期与代际关系调查数据,分析当前河北农村60岁及以上老年人子女的教育投入与老年人获取的来自子女的养老回报的影响因素。河北农村老年人子女的受教育程度多为小学、初中水平,且存在性别、年龄别和地区差异。来自子女教育投入的养老回报主要体现在经济支持方面,子女受教育程度越高,对父母的经济支持越大。父母对子女的教育投入越多得到的回报越高,体现了家庭中亲子抚养与赡养关系具有一定的互惠交换特征。     

成年子女照料老年父母的积极体验研究

通过对14位成年子女照料者的深度访谈,揭示了成年子女照料者在照料老年父母过程中的种种积极体验,例如欣慰和满足、快乐与亲密的感觉,获得思想成熟和个人价值的实现等。这些积极的照料体验不仅强化着成年子女的照料责任感,也帮助他们在一定程度上对抗和克服照料压力。研究发现有助于人们获得关于家庭照料者角色的更为全面的认识,有利于老年人及其家庭照料者社会支持和服务工作的开展。     

代际经济支持、养老金和挤出效应—以上海市为例

利用2003年上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查数据,选取上海市城市老人作为研究对象,利用多元线性回归分析方法,考察养老金与代际经济支持之间的关系以及隐藏在代际经济支持背后的动机。代际经济支持的方向不仅从子女向父母,还从父母向子女;代际经济支持会被养老金挤出,但不会被全部挤出;利他主义和交换是隐藏在代际经济支持背后的动机;挤出效应得到验证。     

子女性别与父母幸福感

中国的市场化深刻转型和经济快速发展极大地增强了女性的经济社会地位,女儿更有能力提升父母的福利;但同时由于从传统社会向现代社会的转型尚未彻底完成,传统农业文明下形成的"重男轻女"观念仍然存在,因此女儿是否给父母带来比儿子更多的幸福感,就仍然是一个有待检验的经验问题。本文利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2008年数据定量研究子女性别对父母幸福感的影响。借助第一胎子女性别的外生性,本文发现,在子女的婴幼儿以及中小学读书阶段,子女性别对父母幸福感无显著影响;而到了子女的结婚生子阶段,儿子带给父母的幸福感比女儿显著更低。特别地,本文没有发现儿子通过"养儿防老"渠道给父母带来更高幸福感的证据:分析显示女儿带给老年父母的幸福感也比儿子更高,这对于有养老保险的父母尤为显著;但发现了父母因为"助儿买房"而损失幸福感的证据:城市里更高房价让男孩父母的幸福感更低。     

城乡养老中的家庭代际关系研究——以2010年七省区调查数据为基础

本文以2010年“中国家庭结构与代际关系变动分析”调查数据为基础,考察65岁及以上老年人的居住方式、生活费用来源和起居照料。农村65岁以上老年父母以与已婚子女共同生活为主,但独立生活已显示出增加趋向;城镇老年人则呈现独立生活和与子女共同生活并存的局面。城市社会养老保障制度之下,子代的“实质”性养老责任逐渐被“非正式”或形式养老所取代,“刚性”供养变为“弹性”支持。而养老保障制度尚未建立起来的农村,老年父母,特别是父亲尽可能参加农耕及其他有收入的劳动来减少子代赡养负担。70％的老年人从生病至去世在一年之内,多数老年人并没有给子代照料带来很大压力。子代养老中的性别差异在城市已经弱化,相对来说儿子承担养老的比例高于女儿;在农村,儿子仍是父母养老的主要承担者。     

政府养老对家庭养老的“挤入”与“挤出”效应的研究

目前中国养老出现了一种现象,在一些大城市里家庭养老的责任在逐渐下降,虽然中国养老金的覆盖面不广,差距较大,但是拥有养老金的老人越来越少,得从子女那获得经济帮助,反而还要为子女提供一定的经济帮助,老年人在自己可以自给自足的情况下还要背负对成年子女的家庭责任。在这样的背景下,重在研究政府养老是否对家庭养老具有"挤出"或者"挤入"效应,了解政府养老对家庭养老的影响力度,给提高老年人福利,促进家庭养老与社会养老平衡发展提供政策性依据。     

家庭养老方式下的老年人生活满意度研究——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析

以CHARLS微观数据为基础,对老年人生活满意度与家庭经济支持、日常照料、沟通联系三方面自变量进行描述统计分析与Spearman相关性检验,并通过二项Logistic回归模型进行深入分析。结果表明,在家庭养老方式下,老年人的生活满意度与家庭的经济支持、日常照料、沟通联系之间存在显著关联,获得家庭经济支持的老年人生活满意度要高于未获得家庭经济支持的老年人,缺乏家人日常照料的老年人的生活满意度要低于得到家人较多照料的老年人,与家人的沟通联系较为密切的老年人有着相对更高的生活满意度。     

中国城镇老年人的居住意愿对空巢居住的影响

实证研究发现,超过半数的中国城镇老年人在居住意愿上选择空巢居住,而近十年来,中国城镇老年人空巢的比例也呈现明显的增长趋势,且越来越倾向于与子女分开居住,中低龄老年人愿意空巢居住的比例更高。就2000年至2010年中国城镇老年人的居住意愿对实际居住方式的影响进行了研究。老年人的居住意愿对其居住方式有重要影响,不愿意与子女同住、经济状况好、有配偶、没有儿子、生活能完全自理的老年人更倾向于空巢居住。与十年前相比,生活自理能力对居住方式的影响增强。未来不愿意与子女同住的老人将越来越多,老年空巢家庭的比例将会继续增加。为了更好地适应老年人空巢居住的变化趋势,应尽快完善社会养老服务体系。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.