中国老龄化高峰期对养老设施和医疗设施的需求——以上海市为例

伴随着中国人口老化程度的加深,对养老设施、医疗设施的需求急剧增加。该文以中国人口老化最严重的城市上海为例,讨论未来中国老龄化社会对养老和医疗设施的实际需求。以上海人口规模预测中方案为基准,根据上海2045年10%老年人口到机构养老的政府目标,测算,上海养老机构床位数需要在2010-2020年每年要增长1.2万张、2020-2030年均增长2.7万张,2030-2040年均增长3.6万张。同时,上海现有养老机构工作人员数量与实际需求亦相距甚远。保守估算,到2030年,上海需要的养老护理人员将超过20万人。上海老龄化程度居全国首位,并且呈现加速加深趋势,因此2010、2020及2030年养老机构所需要的资金投入预计分别为5亿元、8亿元和11亿元,2010年上海需要医生7万人以上,2020年约9万人左右,而到2030、2040年则医生需求增长到10万、11万人以上。     

中国城乡居民恩格尔系数的灰色预测与分析

尝试应用灰色模型理论的GM(1.1)建模方法,结合中国城乡居民的1990-2005年恩格尔系数统计资料进行建模,并预测了2006-2020年城乡居民的恩格尔系数.对两者消费情况的异同进行了比较分析,对居民恩格尔系数的变动趋势进行研究,提出发展经济,提高居民生活水平的几点对策建议.     

农村养老保险综合替代率及其结构分析

中国农村养老保险进一步完善的难点之一是确定合理的养老金给付水平。衡量养老金给付水平最核心的指标是养老金替代率。采用"社会平均替代率"概念,提出养老金目标替代率设为农民劳均收入的50%能够实现"保基本"的目标。现行农村社会养老金替代率约为8%,远低于目标替代率水平,农村养老保险体系中的土地保障、子女养老、社会救助发挥了重要作用,农民养老综合替代率达到32%~37%。未来随着社会养老金给付提高,综合替代率将在2030~2035年达到目标替代率水平,在2050年达到66%~68%。农村养老保险体系从以家庭养老为主向社会养老为主转变。     

以需求为导向的新型农村养老保险参保意愿与模式选择研究

选取陕西省西安市七个非城区县农民为典型调查对象,采用分层整群随机抽样方式,对农村居民养老保险实际需求、参保意愿、模式选择意向作了实态调查。西安市农村家庭收入较低,养老需求日益增长,农村居民开始认同并愿意参加新型农村养老保险,"新农保"制度能够发挥不可替代的养老保障作用。"新农保"模式的选择,在经济条件约束之下,表现为低水平的期望缴费标准和高水平的期望养老金发放水平。提出具有针对性的对策建议,以进一步修正、完善新型农村社会养老保险政策体系。     

通货膨胀视角下中国城市普通居民未来养老金需求及缺口测算——以上海市为例

通货膨胀是我国现阶段重要的经济背景环境,同时人口老龄化的进一步加深,使得养老问题日益集中和急迫.部分专家学者曾经提出“1000万不够养老”的言论,引发了社会的广泛思考.本文以上海为例,将城市居民养老问题置于通货膨胀的大背景下进行理性分析,将养老的过程结构为几个关键时点,透视养老的真实需求.经过计算,在长期温和通胀水平下,上海市普通市民需要准备163.7万元用于养老,其中有57.9万元可以从政府提供的基本养老金中领取,因此,到2027年上海普通市民人均养老金缺口为105.8万元.文章还在基本假设前提下递推计算了从2011年起退休的上海市民的养老金需求、公共养老金供给和养老金缺口.     

新型农村社会养老保险财政支持能力——基于长期动态视角的研究

财政补贴机制是新农保与老农保的最大区别,财政保障能力能否可持续是新农保制度可持续发展的关键。本文通过模拟预测2010～2030年中国农村人口、财政收入、新农保人口覆盖率、最低标准基础养老金以及最低缴费标准等数据,对中央、地方财政对新农保的年补助数额分别占中央、地方财政收入的比重做出仿真测算。结果发现,总体来看,在未来20年中,只要中国经济能够实现持续稳定增长,中央和地方财政都可以负担得起新农保的财政补助。通过长期动态分析,本文提出以下政策建议:尽快实现新农保"制度全覆盖"和"人群全覆盖";完善基础养老金调待机制;加大中央财政对东部农业人口较多省份的财政支持;适时提高地方政府缴费补贴标准;落实好"多缴多得"、"长缴多得"的财政补助政策;个人缴费适时改为比例费率制等。     

中国农村居民效用测算研究——基于综合比例效用恒等式的检验及应用

文章基于西方经济学主流效用理论对消费者的效用测算问题没有给出明确答案这一事实,探索构建比例效用理论推导综合比例效用恒等式,并利用我国2001-2010年27个省份农村居民收入消费数据的面板SUR模型对综合比例效用恒等式进行了验证,同时测算了农村居民效用水平。结果显示:(1)农村居民效用水平在2001-2005年间较高,但下降趋势明显,2006-2010年间保持稳中略升;(2)河南、西藏和四川长期处于消费不足状态,山东长期处于消费过度状态;(3)中等收入省份农村居民消费潜力最大。     

中国农村恩格尔系数的影响因素分析

恩格尔系数作为评价国家贫富和地区生活水平的重要标准,其数值的降低是居民生活水平提高的表现。改革开放以来,中国农村居民家庭恩格尔系数从1978年的67．7％降为2009年的41．0％,从绝对贫困水平提高到了小康水平：找出恩格尔系数的变化受哪些因素影响,选取重要的影响因素来进行分析,这样才能更好地了解中国农村居民家庭恩格尔系数的实际情况,更加清晰地认识中国农村居民生活的现状,进而采取相应的措施来提高农村居民生活水平。     

农村最低生活保障标准的恩格尔系数测定方法探讨

在最低生活保障标准的众多测定方法中,恩格尔系数测定方法饱受争议。由于农村食品绝大部分是自给自足,在农村最低生活保障标准的测定中,如何科学制定恩格尔系数,从而计算农村最低生活保障标准是值得探讨的问题。文章讨论了两种恩格尔系数的测定方法,第一种常规的恩格尔系数测定方法,收集数据简单,但其测定具有一定的主观性且不具有地区针时性。第二种方法,数据收集相对复杂,但更具有地区代表性,且能反映家庭规模带来的消费规模效应。     

中国国民年金的财政支持力度分析

我国社会养老保险在国家机关工作人员、事业单位工作人员、城镇职工、城镇居民和农村居民之间发展不平衡,还有一些群体没有充分享有养老保障的权益。现有的养老保险制度问衔接困难、养老保险关系转移不便,影响劳动力的自由流动。本文提出建立中国国民年金制度,将基础养老金国民化,由政府财政和公共账户支付;并运用数理模型和Eviews统计软件,对中国国民基础养老金账户2012-2050年的收支情况进行测算。在国民年金替代率分别为17％、20％、23％的情况下,政府财政有能力对国民年金收支缺口进行补贴。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Solidified Branding Function: How the Urban Brand Affects a Small Town’s Development? Case Study of Wangqingtuo,Tianjin, China

Chinese small towns are usually developed with single core industry,and the urban brand is the identity of a town that formed with the development of its indust...     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.