借鉴国外经验提高我国自贸区农业谈判质量

近年来,全球自贸区发展迅速,各国政府极为关注,不仅在自贸区农业谈判问题上给予高度重视,同时在具体谈判上积极争取多种多样、切实可行的处理方式与方法,具有很强的代表性和示范作用,如争取较大比例的敏感产品、对关税进行灵活处理、设置审议机制和特殊保障措施等.我国对外自贸区谈判也取得了重要进展,其中农业谈判问题复杂、具有难度,因此,借鉴国外自贸区通行做法和经验,对提高我国农业谈判质量具有重要意义.     

Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues*

A successful agreement on agriculture is essential for an overall agreement under the WTO's Doha trade negotiations. Reaching agreement has been difficult, and as of August 2007, much still remains to be done if a successful agreement is to be reached. We consider three of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; three market access issues of sensitive‐product exceptions sought for all countries and, the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries, the proposed special safeguard mechanism; and the domestic support issue. We show that decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty.     

Conservation tenders in low-income countries: Opportunities and challenges

The number of payments for environmental service schemes (PES) in low-income countries has grown more rapidly than in high-income countries. Yet, scarce funding among potential service buyers in low-income countries arguably makes it even more important to design PES cost-effectively. Tendering conservation contracts is one possible way to improve the cost-effectiveness of PES schemes. There is reason to believe that they are particularly well-suited to overcome some typical constraints in low-income environments. However, experience with conservation tenders in low-income countries remains limited to a handful of scientifically motivated experimental trials. Larger roll-outs can so far only be found in high-income countries, mainly the US and Australia. How different would rolled-out PES tenders perform in low-income countries, and would they require distinct design features? Here, we identify specific opportunities and challenges for implementing conservation tenders in low-income countries. Conceptually, we examine each implementation step of a tendered PES for typical low-income country characteristics. Some may affect the design requirements for successful implementation, in either positive or negative ways, compared with the typical high-income country case. Imperfect markets and information about production systems, high subsistence incomes, high variability in prices and yields, and risk-averse behavior all constitute characteristics which conservation tenders may be particularly suited to address. Conversely, lack of expertise and infrastructure can hamper tender design and the dissemination of information to potential participants. Some of these challenges can be dealt with, but solutions unavoidably increase transaction costs which, in turn, may affect scalability. While tenders reduce poverty alleviation effects when informational rents of service providers are being squeezed, tendered PES programs do not reduce rents to zero under normal circumstances, and can therefore still deliver income transfers and contribute to poverty alleviation.     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy

The economic impact of extending the Common Agricultural Policy to the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has become a major issue in the European enlargement debate. This paper provides an assessment of the economy‐wide effects of European enlargement using a global general equilibrium model where special attention is given to modelling the instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, the Agenda 2000 proposal and the EU budget. The results indicate a substantial potential for increasing agricultural production in the CEEC. The EU budget will increase significantly and the transfers from EU taxpayers to farmers in the CEEC result in significant welfare gains in the new member countries. In spite of these important transfers the macroeconomic costs for the EU are found to be limited.     

新时期天然林保护公益事业:内涵、特征及发展

首先,通过对在公益事业的内涵特征和发展现状的基础上进行阐述,以天然林保护事业发展的成效为背景,提出天然林保护公益事业的目标内涵、功能内涵和意义内涵。然后,通过对比分析公益事业和天然林保护事业的基本特点,提炼出天然林保护公益事业具有外部性、社会性、共享性、无形性和福利性的本质特征。因此,立足创新视角,从制度创新、运作机制创新、技术创新和融资方式创新的角度,提出天然林保护公益事业建设的若干发展路径。     

Poverty, Risk Aversion, and Path Dependence in Low-Income Countries: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

In most low-income countries, rural households depend on mixed rain-fed agriculture/livestock production, which is very risky. Due to numerous market failures, there are few ways to shift risks to third parties. The literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments. Of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps. This paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of Ethiopia. We find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk-averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long-term poverty. The results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps.     

Welfare Implications of a Preferential Tariff Reduction for Agricultural Exports from Less Developed Countries vs. a Generalized Tariff Reduction

The paper presents the results of a theoretical study focusing on a comparative evaluation of the welfare effects of a preferential tariff reduction for agricultural exports from less developed countries versus a generalized tariff reduction. The results are derived using a diagrammatic approach. The analysis is developed within a partial equilibrium framework with one commodity, three large countries (importing developed country, exporting developed country, developing country), fixed exchange rates and zero transportation costs. The theoretical model makes provisions for a country to switch from being an exporter to being an importer, or vice versa, as the equilibrium price changes. Three alternative policy scenarios are analyzed: the imposition of a non-discriminatory tariff, a preferential tariff reduction, and a generalized tariff reduction. Two alternative definitions of the welfare functions are used. One is based on consumers' and producers' surplus, the other adds domestic income and changes in foreign exchange earnings/expenditure. Some methodological implications of the specific model used are discussed, along with the impact, in terms of welfare, of the policy scenarios considered.     

Measuring Perceived Performance of the Food System and Consumer Food‐Related Welfare

The paper explores the use of multi‐item summated scales for the measurement of the perceived performance of the food system and of an index to measure consumer food‐related welfare. Scales are developed that encompass a range of factors that influence the welfare consumers derive from food, including food safety, convenience, ethical issues, health and nutrition, taste and cost. These scales are applied to a national sample of food consumers in the United States and the United Kingdom. On the basis of the survey results, there is evidence that the scales are both reliable and valid measures of the perceived performance of the food system in both countries. An index of consumer food‐related welfare is developed that weights the various performance measures according to respondents' measure of importance. Survey respondents judge that the food system is not performing particularly well in either country. Although more work is required on the use of summated multi‐item scales for this purpose, the results suggest that this is a potentially useful approach that provides relevant information on the impact of different elements of the food system on consumer welfare.     

Combining Risk Assessment and Economics in Managing a Sanitary–Phytosanitary Risk

The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures provides guidelines for countries to protect domestic production from pests and diseases. The guidelines permit consideration of consumer welfare. We find an optimal set of SPS measures considering total welfare and mitigation strategies. Our model suggests that it is optimal and less restrictive to apply mitigation strategies first and then an additional smaller tariff if necessary. Relative cost of mitigation determines the amount of the mitigation strategies applied in the importing and exporting countries.     

FARM CREDIT POLICY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT*

This paper discusses the farm credit policies pursued by governments in low-income countries. It is argued that, in the early stages of development, peasant attitudes to debt are such that cheap credit is unlikely to be a useful growth stimulus. It is shown that the effectiveness of credit depends on the ability and willingness of the peasants to devote such additional funds to productive uses. The poor performance of many government rural credit programmes in low-income countries is discussed and criteria for a successful programme are presented.     

微型金融的普惠效应实证研究——基于6省4220户农户调查数据

本文利用全国6个省份60县4220户农户的调查数据,运用Probit模型实证检验微型金融机构的普惠效应,即小额信贷是否为中低收入和贫困农户提供信贷支持以及能否利用自身特殊的贷款机制拓展农村金融的覆盖面.实证结果发现,微型金融机构能够将信贷服务向正规金融机构无法覆盖的中等收入群体延伸,其普惠效应主要源自其依托现金流为核心...     

Protecting Biotechnology IPRs in Developing Countries: Simple Analytics of a Levy Solution

High transaction costs and an absence of institutional infrastructure in developing countries prevent comprehensive enforcement of intellectual property rights and generate obstacles to the adoption of genetically modified (GM) crop technology. Governments of developing countries that are members of the World Trade Organization are faced with two options when licensing GM crop technology: (1) attempt to regulate GM crops to the standards of the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) or (2) allow a black market in GM seeds and risk trade retaliation from the GM innovator's host country through a TRIPS trade complaint. This paper develops a conceptual model that frames the adopting country's range of licensing options, including a new levy system, and derives welfare measures for each option. The model illustrates how a levy on GM technology can be a welfare‐increasing policy for developing countries, and the operation of a levy is discussed. The conceptual model is applied to Brazil's soybean market and quantitative economic surplus measures are estimated within a calibrated welfare model for a range of licensing scenarios. The model's results suggest that a levy may interfere with the long‐term prospects for innovators to collect monopoly rents in adopting countries.     

The War in Ukraine,Food Security and the Role for Europe

Food-security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low-income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better-targeted support for the low-income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.     

Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Increasing water scarcity combined with an increasing demand for food and water for irrigation call for a careful revision of water use in agriculture. Currently, less than 60% of all the water used for irrigation is effectively used by crops. Based on the new version of the GTAP‐W model we analyze the effect of potential water savings and the welfare implications of improvements in irrigation efficiency worldwide. The results show that a water policy directed to improve irrigation efficiency led to global and regional water savings, but it is not beneficial for all regions. The final effect on regional welfare will depend on the interaction of several different causes. For instance, higher irrigation efficiency changes opportunity costs and reverses comparative advantages, modifying regional trade patterns and welfare. For water‐stressed regions the effects on welfare are mostly positive. For nonwater scarce regions the results are more mixed and mostly negative. The results show that exports of virtual water are not exclusive of water abundant regions.     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

An analysis of population growth,Green Revolution and terms of trade in the presence of cropsharing in agriculture

This explores the welfare effects of some persistent trends in some developing countries on different groups of farmers. It takes a general equilibrium approach in modelling a representative developing economy comprising a manufacturing sector and an agricultural sector where both self-cultivating landlords and tenants carry on production. It is shown that while population growth tends to depress welfare of both the tenant and the landlord, Green Revolution has the opposite effect such that when both trends are present, peasants may or may not be better off. An adverse movement in the agricultural terms of trade reduces welfare of the landlord, but the tenant is made better off.     

Impact of export upgrading on tax revenue in developing and high-income countries*

Empirical studies usually analyse the relationship between an economy’s trade sector and tax revenue in developing countries through the effect of trade liberalization on tax revenue. This paper takes a different angle by examining the impact of export upgrading strategies (export diversification and improvement in export quality) on non-resource tax revenue. The panel data-set covers a sample of 172 countries, including both developed and developing countries, spanning the period 1980–2010. The analysis is conducted both on the entire sample and sub-samples. The findings indicate that export product upgrading exerts a positive and significant effect on non-resource tax revenue, including for the sub-samples considered, with the exception of low-income countries for which we observe mixed results. Moreover, countries which upgrade their export products in a context of trade openness consistently experience higher non-resource tax revenue, both in the short and long term.     

现代林业的意识、内容与制度

现代林业就是林业现代化,应具有公众与政府认知的、人与自然和谐共存的、林业生态环境意识的知识体系,资源经营和管理目标明确并有法规、政策、标准等制度保障,由现代实用科技构建的林业资源优化配置运营的共同体。现代林业的主调是保障生态安全与社会公益;核心是掌握林业资源的优化配置与合理产出;建立科学实用的各项制度是现代林业运行的保障与主体内容。