Can Renminbi Appreciation Reduce the US Trade Deficit？

I. Introduction The trade relationship between the USA and China has been contentious during the past several decades since China’s economic reforms in 1978. The trade relationship between the two countries has been strongly constrained and highly politically influenced. Figure 1 depicts US–China trade from 1994 to 2004. US imports from China have been far greaterthan US exports to China over the past 10 years, and the corresponding US trade deficits with China have become increasingl…     

An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico

This paper discusses causes of capital flows in Korea and Mexico. Both countries received substantial amounts of foreign capital in the late 1980s and early 1990s. International capital helped these countries achieve a higher standard of living and faster economic growth. However, undesirable macroeconomic effects such as appreciation of real exchange rate and widening current account deficits usually accompany foreign capital inflows. The vector autoregressive (VAR) method is applied to investigate the underlying shocks causing the capital inflows. The main findings are that the U.S. business cycle and shocks to foreign interest rates account for more than 50% of capital inflows to both countries in the past two decades.     

Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen

The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow expansionary monetary policies. This limits the choice of exchange rate regime. Given flexible exchange rates, a negative risk premium on the domestic interest rate can emerge. Empirical estimations provide mixed evidence for a negative impact of net foreign asset positions and exchange rate uncertainty on interest rates of international creditor countries at the periphery of the world monetary system.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

Although currency adjustment is often proposed as a policy tool to reduce current account imbalances, there is no consensus regarding the macroeconomic effects. In this paper we study the macroeconomic aftermath of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries over the period 1960–2008, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks. We use narrative identification of exogenous appreciation episodes and study the macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results indicate that exchange rate appreciations tend to have strong effects on current account balances. Within 3 years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, but the output costs are small and not statistically significant. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries.     

Three current account balances: A “Semi-Structuralist” interpretation

Three current account imbalances – one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) – are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S. current account deficit (nearly 2 percentage points of the 2006 deficit of 5(1/2)% of GDP) will undergo an adjustment process that involves real depreciation in its exchange rate. For Japan, a little more than 1 percentage point (of GDP) of the current account surplus is found to require an exchange rate movement (real appreciation) as the surpluses adjust down. For the Euro area, less than half a percentage point of its current account surplus is found to require an adjustment via real appreciation.     

人民币实际汇率波动对中欧进出口贸易影响的实证研究

本文通过建立GARCH模型量度了人民币对欧元实际汇率的波动性,并运用协整检验模型、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术就人民币实际汇率变动对中国与欧元区之间进出口贸易的影响进行分析。分析结果表明,中国对欧元区出口在长期内随汇率波动而增加,而进口却随汇率波动而减少;在短期内汇率波动推动中国进口,抑制中国出口。人民币升值在长期内给双边出口均造成伤害,但对中国出口伤害更大;在短期内人民币贬值将对中国进出口均有推动作用。本文分析还表明,在长期内,中国对欧元区出口收入效应远远大于欧元区对华出口收入效应;在短期内,中国实际收入变动对欧元区出口表现负向冲击,而欧元区实际收入变动对中国出口表现为正向冲击。中国汇率制度改革对中国出口欧元区产生推动作用,对欧元区出口产生抑制作用,且前者大于后者。实际汇率水平及其波动性变化对欧元区对华出口变动的解释力高于中国实际收入水平变化的解释力,而对于中国对欧元区出口的变动,欧元区实际收入水平变动的解释力高于实际汇率水平及其波动性变化的解释力。     

Anti-dumping Policies and International Portfolio Allocation: The View from the Global Funds

Anti-dumping policies, as one of the most important nontariff measures to protect a country's economic interests, can have an impact not only on a country's trade and social welfare, but also on capital flows. Anti-dumping measures can result in increased trade costs and alterations to exchange rate risk. This study investigates the impact of anti-dumping sanctions on the international portfolio allocations of global funds. Antidumping policies can decrease the proportion of a fund's investment portfolio allocated to recently-sanctioned countries. Closer trade ties between the sanctioned country and the country where a fund is domiciled exacerbate the divestiture, but stronger foreign direct investment links weaken the negative association. Some country and fund heterogeneities are also discussed. We find that more developed countries are less affected by the impact of anti-dumping measures on equity fund allocations; liberalization of the economy and stable government could also mitigate the negative impact of anti-dumping sanctions. High-risk funds, such as growth funds or funds that invest in leveraged buyouts, showed the greatest response to changes in anti-dumping regulations.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

Is the emergence of new sovereign wealth funds a fashion phenomenon?

The paper deals with the important financial policy issue of the decision for a country to establish a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). Using a large-scale database, we analyze the economic, political and institutional factors that should be considered in such a decision. In particular, we test if the emergence of SWFs and more specifically of a specific type of SWFs can be explained by the following factors: the excess foreign exchange reserves due to natural resources rents or persistent current account surpluses; the volatility of commodity prices; the appreciation of the real exchange rate leading to the “Dutch Disease” effect and the governance of the country. The results suggest that countries with excess foreign exchange reserves, which are dependent on a commodity and which suffer from an appreciation of the real exchange rate are more likely to create a fund. We also find that commodity-based funds tend to be established in low democratic countries. Finally, our results suggest that the factors driving SWFs creation are different depending on the origin of the funding (commodity or non-commodity) and the macroeconomic objective(s) assigned to the fund. Our results may be of interest for policymakers debating whether or not it can be optimal for the country to establish a SWF.     

Net foreign assets and macroeconomic volatility

This study analyses the co-movements of net foreign asset accumulation, consumption, real exchange rate, and real interest rate in a cross section of countries. Our sample covers both industrial and developing economies, spanning 1981–2010 period. We find that the accumulation of net foreign assets is associated with increasing consumption and real exchange rate appreciation. In a cross section of countries, when a country increases its net foreign assets to GDP ratio by a one-standard deviation, consumption to GDP increases by 0.02% per year and real exchange rate appreciates by 2% per year. Consumption to GDP responds more positively to net foreign asset accumulation in G7 countries, +0.1 to +0.2% per year, while the response is smaller and negative in developing countries reporting a −0.02% per year. The real exchange rate appreciation, however, is about +3% per year in developing countries and only about +0.2% per year in OECD countries.     

Real exchange rate determination in eastern Europe

This paper develops a simple theoretical model of exchange rate determination in a transitional economy. The distinguishing feature of the model is the retention of market failures pertaining to the production and consumption of nontradable goods and, therefore, the likelihood of real exchange rate appreciation. Using this framework, the econometric tests are performed for the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland, and Hungary, and appropriate macroeconomic and exchange rate policies are recommended to support further liberalization and development of the foreign exchange market.     

International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters,non-floaters,and capital controls

This paper analyzes the impacts of the United States (US) monetary shocks on East Asian countries using structural vector-autoregression (VAR) model. We find that the impacts of the US monetary shocks on East Asian domestic interest rates and exchange rates contradict conventional wisdom. The conventional exchange rate channel is unlikely to play much role in the transmission of the US monetary policy shocks to floaters in East Asian countries, excluding Japan. In these countries, the domestic interest rates respond strongly to the US interest rate changes, by giving up monetary autonomy, probably because of fear of floating. However, the domestic interest rate does not respond much in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes and capital account restrictions, such as China and Malaysia. This may suggest that the countries with fixed exchange rate regimes enjoy a higher degree of monetary autonomy, most likely with the help of capital account restrictions.     

Financial crises,Asian stock indices,and current accounts: An Asian-U.S. comparative study

This paper investigates the effects of financial crises-based exchange rate, real interest rate, and personal consumption expenditure on stock market indices and balances of current account in four Asian countries/areas, and the U.S. from 1997 to 2010. Results obtained from Sims's first-order DSGE representation suggest that two policy variables – changes in the exchange rate and changes in the real interest rate lagged by one quarter – act as stabilizers for contemporaneous changes in stock indices for Thailand, Malaysia, and the U.S., but as destabilizers for Taiwan and Hong Kong. However, changes in personal consumption expenditure lagged by one quarter only play a destabilizing role in Hong Kong. For contemporaneous changes in the current account balance, all three policy variables become destabilizers for all five countries except the one-quarter lagged change in real interest rate, which acts as a stabilizer in Malaysia.     

The impact of exchange rate movements on multi-product firms' export performance: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on Chinese multi-product firms' export behavior using China's firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data over 2000–2007. We find that real appreciation of RMB exerts negative effects on Chinese multi-product firms' export prices and export quantities, and the effects are significantly different across firms with different productivity as well as the product ladder within multi-product firms. In addition, we document that real appreciation of RMB narrows multi-product firms' export scope and induces firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Finally, the paper explores the effects of RMB exchange rate movements on firms' export duration, and shows that real appreciation of RMB lengthens the export duration of core products but shortens the export duration of non-core products.     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

Marshall-Lerner condition and economic globalization

The analysis considers the impact of FDI inflows and FDI outflows and shows that the presence of (cumulated) FDI requires higher import elasticities in absolute terms than stated in the standard Marshall Lerner condition. One may derive a range for the elasticity of the ratio of exports to imports with respect to the real exchange rate, namely that the sum of the absolute import elasticities at home and abroad must exceed unity plus an additional parameter??for standard special cases the sum of both elasticities must exceed 2 if a real depreciation is to improve the real current account. Not only can one determine a modified Marshall Lerner condition for a world economy with economic globalization, rather one also can get new insights from considering a broader macroeconomic perspective. The insights obtained are highly relevant for the discussion about high current account deficits of the US and high surplus positions of countries such as Japan, China and Germany??adjustment could be more complex than suggested by traditional models.     

人民币升值对我国资产价格波动的影响

随着我国经济持续增长和外汇储备的逐年增加,人民币升值步伐有越来越快的趋势。自2005年7月,我国宣布结束维持十年之久的人民币汇率盯住美元政策以来,人民币已累计升值30%。人民币升值导致了我国资产价格的波动,特别是我国股票和房地产价格的起伏波动。如何应对由人民币升值引起的国内流动性过剩导致资产价格波动,成为政府面临的新挑战。     

The effect of exchange rates on firm exports and the role of FDI

This paper studies how exchange rate movements affect the export market entry and intensity decision of firms and the export behaviour of multinationals in the UK. Using data on British manufacturing firms we find that exchange rate movements have little effect on firm export participation but have a significant impact on export shares. Multinationals have at their disposal a greater array of instruments to deal with exchange rates changes, although their use may vary according to the motives behind FDI. We also find important differences according to the country of origin of multinational firms. Multinationals firms originating from outside of the EU are less affected by changes in the exchange rate compared to those inside, who appear similarly affected as domestic firms.     

Taiwan's External Imbalance and Structural Adjustment: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

Taiwan's trade surplus reached about one-fifth of GNP by 1986, becoming the source of attention and criticism from the international community. Realizing it is to her own benefit to reduce the surplus, and also in order to ease outside pressure, Taiwan started to take measures of macroeconomic adjustments, including currency appreciation and expansionary fiscal policies. Trade surplus was reduced to 8.1% of GNP by 1989, as a result of increases in domestic demand accompanied by decreases in demand from abroad. At the same time the sectoral structure of Taiwan's economy changed: the share of non-tradable sectors (mainly construction and services) expanded while that of the tradable ones (agriculture and manufacturing) shrank. This paper uses a 27-sector computable general equilibrium model to investigate the comparative statics of changes in Taiwan's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in 1989. Results of the model's counter factual policy simulations indicate expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are effective in reducing the external imbalance. In particular if public investment and money supply were raised by respectively 20% and 10% above the actual values, current account surplus as a percentage of GNP could be reduced from 8.52% to 6.91% in that year, and resources shifts from the tradable to the non-tradable sectors would be strengthened. They also indicate that to achieve a given target of reduction in external imbalance, there are trade-offs between expansionary fiscal policies and currency appreciation and between expansionary monetary policies and currency appreciation. For instance to reduce the current account surplus ratio to 5.04 of GNP, a 15% (10%) increase in public investment (money supply) would have to be accompanied by a 31% (29%) appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.     

On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the determinants of surge and stop episodes in foreign loans using quarterly data from 55 countries covering 1990Q1 to 2011Q4. The estimation results show that, first, global, contagion and domestic factors are all significantly associated with both loan-led surge and stop episodes. Second, domestic factors are more relevant to stops than to surges and are associated more strongly with episodes in emerging countries than with those in advanced countries. Third, global risk and domestic growth shock are most consistent and important in predicting both types of episodes. Fourth, financial linkage is the most important contagion channel in the occurrence of loan-led episodes. Fifth, capital control is not a useful tool for avoiding either type of episode and may actually increase their likelihood. Finally, stops in emerging countries are strongly related to macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation, current account balance, net foreign assets, real exchange rate, and previous occurrence of surge episodes. Our results strongly suggest that emerging countries with lower institutional quality levels are more likely to experience both surges and stops.