Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long‐term economic growth.     

Does Financial Development 'Lead' Economic Growth?

We use the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality testing procedure to investigate the relationship, if any, between financial development and economic growth.We use quarterly data from 19 OECD countries and China, and use total credit and interest spread as indicators of financial development. We also consider the impact of financial development on investment and productivity. We find meagre evidence that financial development 'leads' economic growth, either directly or indirectly. This casts further doubt on claims that financial development is a necessary and perhaps sufficient precursor to economic growth.     

Immigration and Unemployment: New evidence from Australia and New Zealand

This study uses a new Granger no-causality testing procedure developed by Toda &Yamamoto (1995) to contribute to the debate on immigration and unemployment in Australia and New Zealand. It investigates a possible causal linkage between these variables in a six-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model. The research finds no Granger causality between immigration and unemployment. Instead, it finds evidence of Granger causality running from industrial structural changes, measured by the Stoikov and HDB indices, to unemployment, and from several other economic variables to unemployment.     

Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai

The export-led growth hypothesis is tested using monthly time series data for Shanghai (one of the major exporting provinces in China) using the Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. This paper builds on the existing literature in three distinct ways. This is the first study of the export-led growth hypothesis which employs a regional dataset (Shanghai). Second, the paper follows Riezman et al . (1996) in controlling for the growth of imports to avoid a spurious causality result; and finally, the use of the methodology by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to improve the standard F -statistics in the causality test process. The research finds one-way Granger causality running from GDP to exports     

The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples

The purpose of this study is to re-investigate the savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy using bounds testing approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) – TYDL Granger causality test. This study covered the sample period from 1971:Q1 to 2008:Q4. The cointegration results suggest that the variables are moving together in the long run and the TYDL Granger causality results indicate that the relationship between savings and economic growth is bilateral. In addition, the rolling sub-samples TYDL Granger causality test exhibited a relatively stable causal relationship running from savings to economic growth in Malaysia particularly before the onset of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997/1998.     

Another look at the Relationship between Telecommunications Investment and Economic Activity in the United States

Abstract

In a recent issue of this journal, Beil et al. (2005, hereafter, BFJ) examined the relationship between telecommunications investment and economic growth in the United States over the period 1947–1996. Based on results from Granger-Sims test, BFJ conclude that ‘… investment by telecommunications firms is caused by, but does not cause, economic activity, and the findings are robust across lag lengths’. However, using another version of the Granger causality test due to Toda & Yamamoto (1995) and the same data set transformed into natural logarithms, the evidence in this paper indicates a feedback where there was a bi-directional causality between telecommunications investment and economic growth. This seems to suggest that policies aimed at stimulating the US economy by accelerating investment in the telecommunications sector may be successful.     

国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。     

On the Causality Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note

This study uses a new Granger non–causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to contribute to the debate on exchange rates and stock prices in Sweden. It examines a possible causal relation between these variables in a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results show that Granger causality is unidirectional running from stock prices to effective exchange rates. The results also reveal that an increase in Swedish stock prices is associated with an appreciation of the Swedish krona. Special attention is given to the estimation methodology and the lag choosing process.     

Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries

Causality between the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP and growth in real GDP per capita is investigated in a country-by-country time-series framework for 24 OECD economies over the period 1980–2013. The proposed threefold methodology to test for causal linkages integrates (1) lag-augmented VAR Granger causality tests, (2) Breitung–Candelon causality tests in the frequency domain, and (3) testing for causal inference based on a fully modified OLS (FMOLS) approach. For 12 of 24 countries in the sample, the three tests yield uniform results in terms of causality presence (absence) and direction. Causality running from credit depth to economic growth is found for the UK, Australia, Switzerland, and Greece. The findings lend no support to the view that financial development shifts from a supply-leading to demand-following pattern as economic development proceeds. The aggregate results mesh well with the current discussion on “too much finance” and disintermediation effects. However, idiosyncratic country determinants also appear significant.     

Trade‐led growth hypothesis in Cuban commercial regimes since 19601,2

This study examines the impact of trade on Cuban growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning the period from 1960 up to 2004, encompassing two essential economic structural transformations: the Cuban revolution and the fall of the Berlin Wall. For this purpose, the Granger causality is used by means of the modified Wald test for augmented‐level vector autoregressive model with integrated and cointegrated processes introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutekepohl (1996) . We show an import‐led growth hypothesis during the Soviet‐oriented pattern that is rejected after 1990, when exports are not only responsive to growth expansion but also to imports’ behaviour.     

中国经济增长与环境污染——基于时序数据的经验分析(1985～2003)

本文选用1985￣2003年期间我国的六类环境污染指标,从时序维度考察了环境污染与我国人均收入变化之间的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制。首先,基于MaddalaandKim提出的改进的Johansen协整检验结果表明,在具有协整关系的四类变量中,只有二氧化硫排放总量与人均GDP之间存在正的协整关系,其他三类污染指标(工业废水排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量)与人均GDP之间协整关系均为负,这表明发展中国家的经济增长并不必然导致环境的恶化;其次,分别基于误差修正模型的因果关系检验与TodaandYamamoto提出的Granger因果检验方法考察了六类污染指标与人均GDP之间的双向因果关系,研究发现环境污染与我国人均GDP之间的一般规律:人均GDP是导致污染排放量变化的重要原因,但污染排放并不是导致人均GDP变化的原因。     

Inter-linkages between competition and stabilisation policies in the banking sector and stock market development in Europe

The banking sector and the stock market in Europe have been adversely impacted by a series of global financial crises over the last two decades. Major financial reforms were implemented to enhance the stability and competition within the banking sector. Measures were also implemented to create a vibrant stock market in Europe to stimulate economic growth in Europe. This study examines the interactions between stock market development, banking competition, and banking stability in European countries from 1996 to 2016. The purpose of the study is to understand the inter-linkages between these variables to ascertain the spillover impact of policy reforms in the banking sector on the stock market and vice-versa. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds long-run and short-run inter-linkages between banking competition, banking stability, and stock market development in European countries. The study’s most robust result is that banking competition and banking stability stimulate stock market development in the long run. There is also some evidence that healthy competition in the banking sector and stock market development instils greater stability in the banking sector. The results suggest that policy measures put in place to create a vibrant stock market must include elevating banking competition and banking stability, with policymakers being cognizant that causality may be bidirectional.     

Innovation,financial development and economic growth in Eurozone countries

Using a panel vector auto-regressive model, we study interactions between innovation, financial development and economic growth in 18 Eurozone countries between 1961 and 2013. We focus on whether causality runs between these variables both ways, one way, the other way or not at all. Our empirical results show that development of the financial sector and enhanced innovative capacity in the Eurozone contributes to long-term economic growth in the countries in the region.     

金融发展与经济增长——基于1952-2007年中国数据的再检验

本文分别以金融抑制论和金融结构论为指导,根据中国的实际情况,建立数学模型,进行多元回归分析,并利用VAR因果关系检验和方差分解探索中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系.结论表明:(1)无论是金融抑制论还是金融结构论,金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关;(2)对于模型1来说,金融发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,属于需求追随型;而模型2并没有显示金融发展与经济增长存在明显的因果关系,以银行为主导的金融结构通过内在传导机制对经济增长产生影响;(3)从金融发展对经济波动解释的力度来看,金融抑制论对解释金融发展与经济增长之间的关系比较弱,而金融结构论对经济增长的解释力要强.因此,在强调市场对金融资源优化配置的同时,更加关注以银行业为主导的金融机构改革,理顺金融发展与经济增长内在机制,以实现金融发展与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的目标.     

金融发展、技术进步与区域经济增长——基于欠发达地区的分析

运用向量自回归模型(VAR)估计区域金融发展水平与全要素生产率之间的关系考察金融发展与区域经济增长之间的技术进步影响,并运用格兰杰因果检验对区域金融发展规模与全要素生产率增长率之间的因果关系做出检验。研究发现,1990年以来中国西北各省区的经济金融化程度均得到提高,但是金融发展对全要素生产率的影响较弱,全要素生产率对金融规模的响应程度和显著性不高,西北地区金融发展对经济增长的作用还没有得到充分的发挥。     

Financial market development,global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations

Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.     

Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

This study using Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling 23, 978–992.] method of bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis, which considers the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously, analyzes the causality between financial development and economic growth among ten Asian countries surveyed during period 1980 to 2007. We find that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development variables used in the ten Asian countries examined in this work. Moreover, our findings support the supply-leading hypothesis, as many financial development variables lead economic growth in some of the ten Asian countries surveyed, especially in China.     

Is the export‐led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?

Abstract Empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re‐examines the export‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995) . Application of recent developments in time series modelling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help to clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long‐run steady state exists among the model's six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP. JEL Classification: F43, C32 Est‐ce que l’hypothèse de la croissance engendrée par les exportations est valide pour le Canada? Les résultats empiriques des études tentant de montrer le lien entre les exportations et la croissance économique sont mixtes et ne contiennent pas de résultats concluants. Cet article ré‐examine l’hypothèse dans le cas du Canada en testant la causalitéà la Granger pour les exportations et la croissance du produit national, en utilisant les modèles VECM et la méthodologie VAR développés par Toda et Yamamoto (1995) . L’application de certains développements récents dans l’analyse des séries chronologiques et l’inclusion de variables pertinentes omises dans les études antérieures aident à mettre de l’ordre dans les résultats contradictoires des études antérieures portant sur l’économie canadienne. Les résultats empiriques suggèrent qu’un régime permanent existe entre les six variables du modèle et que la causalitéà la Granger est unidirectionnelle des exportations réelles vers le PIB réel.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg‐and‐Chicken Problem?

This study uses a Granger causality procedure to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The authors estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) model for nine OECD countries and China. They argue that a time-series approach is superior to a cross-sectional one and that the VAR framework avoids technical problems common in other time-series models. Evidence is presented of bidirectional causality between financial development and growth in half of the countries and reverse causality in three others. There is little support for the hypothesis that finance "leads" growth, and caution must be exercised in making general conclusions about this relationship.     

Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?

This article investigates the direction of Granger-causality between debt and growth in the G7 countries using quarterly data from 1980 to 2013. We analyse the causal structure both in level data using the Toda and Yamamoto causality test, and with differenced data by means of dynamic impulse response analysis. Results indicate that growth causes debt rather than the other way around. We find the effect of growth on debt to be unambiguously negative in all cases of significant causality, but to be a short- to medium-run phenomenon with no lasting impact. We also find that results are sensitive to the sample period, with causality from growth to debt much more prevalent when the sample period includes the recent financial crisis.