Do Accruals Drive Firm‐Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper extends the variance decomposition framework of Campbell [1991], Campbell and Ammer [1993], and Vuolteenaho [2002] to address the relative value relevance of accrual news, cash flow news, and expected-return news in driving firm-level equity returns. The extension is based on the Feltham-Ohlson [1995, 1996] clean surplus relations. Using three models, this study shows that all three factors, accruals, cash flows, and expected future discount rates are value relevant. Moreover, accrual news is found to significantly dominate expected-return news in driving firm-level stock returns. Operating income news is also found to significantly dominate both expected-return news and free cash flow news in driving firm-level stock returns. Furthermore, after splitting net income into cash flow and accrual earnings components in the Vuolteenaho model, accrual earnings news and cash flow earnings news are found to equally drive firm-level stock returns and to dominate expected-return news. Further disaggregation of the data yields some evidence that accrual earnings news is a more important factor than cash flow earnings news in driving current stock returns. Overall, the three models indicate that changes in expected future accruals are a primary driver, if not the primary driver, of current stock returns.     

The persistence of earnings and cash flows and the role of special items: Implications for the accrual anomaly

We argue that high accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with an income statement perspective, while low accruals are likely to be the outcome of rules with a balance sheet perspective, and that this has implications for the properties of earnings. Specifically, earnings persistence is affected both by the magnitude and sign of the accruals. Accruals improve the persistence of earnings relative to cash flows in high accrual firms, but reduce earnings persistence in low accrual firms. We show that the low persistence of earnings in low accrual firms is primarily driven by special items. We then show that special item-low accrual firms have higher future stock returns than other low accrual firms. This is consistent with investors misunderstanding the transitory nature of special items. Further analysis reveals that special item-low accrual firms have poor past performance and declines in investor recognition (analyst coverage and institutional holdings). Special items continue to explain future returns after controlling for these factors.     

The predictive power of investment and accruals

We test whether investment explains the accrual anomaly by splitting total accruals into investment-related and “nontransaction” accruals, items such as depreciation and asset write-downs that do not represent new investment expenditures. The two types of accruals have very different predictive power for firm performance, not just for future earnings but also for future cash flow and stock returns. Most importantly, nontransaction accruals have the strongest negative predictive slopes for earnings and stock returns, contrary to the predictions of the investment hypothesis. A long-short portfolio based on nontransaction accruals has a significant average return of 0.71 % monthly from 1972 to 2010 and remains profitable at the end of the sample when returns on other accrual strategies decline. Our results suggest that nontransaction accruals are the least reliable component of accruals and show that a significant portion of the accrual anomaly cannot be explained by investment.     

Accrual and cash flow accounting models: A comparison of the value relevance and timeliness of their components

This research uses the empirical framework developed by Easton, Harris and Ohlson (1992) to examine the relative ability of the accrual and cash flow accounting models to capture value relevant events. In particular, components of clean surplus accrual earnings are compared with components of total cash flows to determine their relative abilities to recognise value relevant events in a timely manner. The results indicate that the association between stock returns and earnings is higher than that with total cash flows for return intervals of between one and ten years. Cash flows from operations and current accruals are able to recognise value relevant events in a timely manner, while non-current and non-operating accruals only become consistently value relevant when longer return intervals are considered. Cash flows from investing and financing activities are less value relevant than the other components considered, especially over longer return intervals.     

Accruals, Cash Flows and the Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Drift

Abstract:   Several prior studies have shown that cash flows have significantly greater impact on stock prices than accruals. We examine the implications of these findings for the post‐earnings‐announcement‐drift anomaly. We argue that, if investors under‐react to earnings news, then the larger price impact of cash flows causes the cash flow component of earnings news to predict future returns better than the accruals component. Consistent with this argument, we show that unexpected cash flows are more positively related to future returns, than are unexpected accruals. Also, unexpected cash flows are found to predict future returns above and beyond that predicted by earnings surprises. Finally, we show that a strategy that decomposes earnings news into its components significantly outperforms strategies based on earnings news alone. The results support under‐reaction explanations for the drift.     

Earnings forecasts and idiosyncratic volatilities

We test the theoretical relation between idiosyncratic return volatilities and the volatilities of cash-flow news based on the expected returns on equity (ROE) for CRSP stocks over the period 1977–2008. Consistent with economic intuition, we find that using analyst forecasts of earnings is superior to using realized earnings to proxy for market expectations about future cash flow news. Our findings are consistent with a market where stock return volatilities are positively and asymmetrically related to changes in the volatilities of expectations for a fundamental driver of cash flow news (ROE). Our findings are robust after correcting for forecast biases, various fundamental variables, newly-listed and mature firms, and periods with and without earnings announcements.     

Unexpected Accruals and Conditional Accounting Conservatism

Abstract:  This paper examines the impact of management discretion over accruals on conditional accounting conservatism, defined as the tendency of accountants to recognize bad news on a timelier basis than good news. Prior research suggests that conditional accounting conservatism reflected in earnings is mainly due to the accrual component of earnings, not the cash flow component of earnings. After decomposing total accruals into expected and unexpected accruals, I find that (1) conditional accounting conservatism reflected in accruals is mainly due to unexpected accruals; (2) the negative association between unconditional and conditional accounting conservatism is mainly attributable to unexpected accruals; and (3) firms with higher leverage exhibit conditionally more conservative accounting primarily through unexpected accruals. These results are robust to accrual models that take into account the systematic association between accruals and cash flows and their non-linearity and to the asymmetric persistence of earnings changes specification of conditional accounting conservatism. Taken together, these results suggest that managers exercise their discretion over accruals to expedite the recognition of bad news rather than good news.     

Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals

This paper investigates how analyst cash flow forecasts affect investors' valuation of accounting accruals. We find that the strength of the accrual anomaly documented in Sloan (1996) is weaker for firms with analyst cash flow forecasts, after controlling for idiosyncratic risk, transaction costs and firm characteristics associated with the issuance of cash flow forecasts. We further show that this reduction in mispricing of accounting accruals is at least partially attributed to the improved ability of investors to price earnings manipulations imbedded in accruals. We investigate several non-mutually exclusive alternative explanations for this improvement in investors' ability and demonstrate that the increased investor attention and the improved accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts both contribute to the mitigation of the accrual anomaly.     

Accruals,Investment, and Future Performance

It is well documented that accounting measures of investment, such as working capital and capital expenditures, negatively predict future stock returns. The earnings fixation hypothesis suggests that investors overestimate and overvalue the persistence of the accrual component of earnings. Another stream of the literature argues that since accruals capture growth, the accruals anomaly can be explained by the investment anomaly, which finds that firms that grow their assets tend to have lower future returns. As empirical proxies for accruals and investment are either positively correlated or interchangeably used, it is difficult to distinguish between the competing hypotheses in empirical tests. This study contributes to the debate by identifying two special economic settings in which the two explanations offer diverging predictions. First, investment in research and development (R&D) represents an investment expenditure that reduces earnings but is not subject to accrual accounting. Thus, the earnings fixation hypothesis predicts a positive relation between increases in R&D investments and future returns, whereas the investment anomaly predicts a negative relation. Second, firms operating with negative working capital have working capital accruals that are negatively correlated with other forms of investment and growth. Therefore, while the earnings fixation hypothesis still predicts a negative relation between accruals and future returns in this setting, the investment explanation predicts a positive relation. For both sets of tests, the empirical evidence supports the earnings fixation hypothesis for the accruals anomaly and is inconsistent with the notion that the investment anomaly subsumes earnings fixation in explaining future stock returns.     

Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals

We investigate the relation between two market anomalies to provide insights into analysts role as information intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms with consistent accrual and forecast revision signals have less persistent accruals and earnings. We also find that accruals can be used to refine the forecast revision strategy—high accruals are associated with overoptimism in analyst forecasts. Our findings indicate that although forecast revisions reflect information about accrual and earnings persistence beyond that reflected in the level of current year accruals, investors do not fully incorporate this information into their valuation assessments.     

The accrual anomaly: Australian evidence

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of the accrual anomaly ( Sloan, 1996 ) in Australia, whereby investors overestimate the impact of accruals on the persistence of earnings. While our results provide general support for the existence of the anomaly in Australia, there are a number of idiosyncrasies. First, there is evidence of Australian investors underestimating the persistence of earnings. Second, there is evidence of investors incorrectly assessing the implications of accruals and cash flows for the persistence of earnings (i.e. an accrual anomaly and a cash‐flow anomaly). Third, returns to a hedged portfolio trading strategy based on reported accruals are decreasing over the three‐year period subsequent to portfolio formation. Furthermore, they are statistically significant only in the first year. Additional analysis of the hedge portfolio results indicates that these results are primarily attributable to a limited number of firm‐year observations in the extreme positive tail of returns.     

Corporate bond returns and the financial crisis

We examine effects of government actions and related accounting policies on the corporate bond market implied by changes in relations between aggregate bond returns and cash flow and discount rate news. We capture the influence of risk by partitioning bonds into investment and speculative grades. We use earnings changes as a proxy for cash flow news and T-Bill rate changes as a proxy for discount rate news. As expected, during non-crisis periods, we observe a positive relation between earnings changes and bond returns and a negative relation for T-Bill rate changes. A combination of government bailouts of large financial institutions and mark-to-market accounting preserves the positive relation for earnings changes during the crisis for investment grade bonds, while absence of these factors leads to an insignificant relation for speculative grade. Intervention by the Federal Reserve to induce lower interest rates as earnings were declining, a flight to safety shifting demand from corporate bonds to T-Bills, and low cost funds invested in risk free investments explain a reversal of the relation between bond returns and T-Bill rate changes for both grades.     

What Moves Investment Growth?

We use accounting identities to decompose unexpected changes in investment growth into surprises to current cash‐flow growth and stock returns, and revisions of expectations about future cash‐flow growth and future discount rates. Using a vector autoregressive model we find that current cash‐flow surprises account for the largest element of the variance decomposition. Investment growth and current cash‐flow surprises are negatively correlated with news about future cash‐flow growth, which can be expected from persistent productivity shocks and decreasing returns to scale. We find little evidence of a discount rate channel for investment since return terms are small and have unintuitive signs.     

Accruals,cash flows,and aggregate stock returns

This paper examines whether the firm-level accrual and cash flow effects extend to the aggregate stock market. In sharp contrast to previous firm-level findings, aggregate accruals is a strong positive time series predictor of aggregate stock returns, and cash flows is a negative predictor. In addition, innovations in accruals are negatively contemporaneously correlated with aggregate returns, and innovations in cash flows are positively correlated with returns. These findings suggest that innovations in accruals and cash flows contain information about changes in discount rates, or that firms manage earnings in response to marketwide undervaluation.     

Financial reporting quality and idiosyncratic return volatility

Campbell et al. (2001) document that firms’ stock returns have become more volatile in the U.S. since 1960. We hypothesize and find that deteriorating earnings quality is associated with higher idiosyncratic return volatility over 1962–2001. These results are robust to controlling for (i) inter-temporal changes in the disclosure of value-relevant information, sophistication of investors and the possibility that earnings quality can be informative about future cash flows; (ii) stock return performance, cash flow operating performance, cash flow variability, growth, leverage and firm size; and (iii) new listings, high-technology firms, firm-years with losses, mergers and acquisitions and financial distress.     

Accounting Conservatism and the Relation Between Returns and Accounting Data

This study adds change in cash investments and change in lagged operating assets to the regression of returns on earnings levels and earnings changes examined in Easton and Harris (1991). We argue that a positive coefficient on change in cash investments captures conservatism associated with investments in positive net present value projects the effects of which will not flow into the accounting statements until the expected future benefits are realized. A positive coefficient on change in lagged operating assets implies accounting conservatism associated with the application of accounting rules to operating assets in place. Our empirical results are, in general, consistent with these arguments. We examine differences in conservatism across samples with different market to book ratios, we compare firms with non-negative returns with firms with negative returns, we compare firms reporting losses with firms reporting profits, and we examine firms in different industries, firms with different levels of research and development expenditure, different amounts of depreciation, different amounts of advertising expense, and firms that adopt LIFO inventory valuation compared with those that adopt an alternative to LIFO.JEL Classification: M41     

The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating

When analysts provide forecasts of both earnings and operating cash flow, they also implicitly provide a forecast of total operating accruals. We posit that this increases the transparency and the expected costs of accrual manipulations used to manage earnings. As a consequence, we predict and find that accrual quality improves and firms’ propensity to meet or beat earnings benchmarks declines following the provision of cash flow forecasts. We also predict and find that firms turn to other benchmark-beating mechanisms, such as real activities manipulation and earnings guidance in response to the provision of cash flow forecasts.     

The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings

Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component. We decompose the cash component into: (1) the change in the cash balance, (2) issuances/distributions to debt, and (3) issuances/distributions to equity. We find that the higher persistence of the cash component is entirely due to the subcomponent related to equity. The other subcomponents have persistence levels almost identical to accruals. We investigate whether investors understand the implications of the differential persistence of the three subcomponents. Our results suggest that investors correctly price debt and equity issuances/distributions but misprice the change in the cash balance in a similar manner to accruals. Our tests enable us to empirically distinguish the “accrual” and “external financing” anomalies with results implying that the accrual anomaly subsumes the external financing anomaly. Our results also suggest that naive fixation on earnings is unlikely to be a complete explanation for the accrual anomaly. Our findings are more consistent with investors misunderstanding diminishing returns to new investments.     

Earnings management of seasoned equity offering firms in Korea

We investigated 249 Korean seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms during the period 1995-1997 to determine if the SEO firms manage earnings in the year before a planned issue of seasoned equity stocks. Using three test methods (accrual difference, correlation, and sign-change), we found that the Korean firms contemplating SEOs in the following year do manage earnings particularly when their relative performances have been poor. The results are robust irrespective of control samples. Analysis of operating performances around SEOs shows that SEO firms tend to increase reported earnings in the year immediately preceding and the year of SEOs, but no differences were found in operating cash flows between the SEO firms and the control firms. By using a regression analysis for discretionary accruals, we found that SEO firms are more likely to manage earnings if the operating performances are poor and if the offer sizes are relatively large. Association tests between stock returns and discretionary accruals indicate that the market reacts positively to net income but negatively to discretionary accruals. The results indicate that the market correctly analyzes the cash flow implications of the SEO firms' opportunistic use of discretionary accruals.