A first empirical comparison of energy Footprints embodied in trade — MRIO versus PLUM

The Ecological Footprint as an indicator that accounts for human demand on global bioproductivity sets out to quantify the impacts associated with consumption in a given country, including the impacts associated with trade. The National Footprint Accounts (NFA) by Global Footprint Network (GFN) calculate trade-embodied Footprints by multiplying yield and embodied energy factors with mass volumes of traded goods in a “Product Land Use Matrix (PLUM)”. This article compares energy Footprints embodied in trade from and to the United Kingdom in 2002 as calculated by the NFA-PLUM with the results from a recently developed multi-region input-output model (MRIO) for the UK. Although totals for imports and exports are comparable, breaking down the results by economic sectors reveals large differences and hardly any correlation between the two methods. The omission of trade in services (especially transport services) and upstream impacts of energy goods (fossil fuels) and the use of inappropriate embodied energy factors in the NFA-PLUM method are identified as the main reasons for these differences.In the light of the results it seems that a comprehensive Footprint account of trade can better be achieved with an input-output based approach. I conclude that MRIO models - once fully developed - will be particularly suitable in the future to estimate the Ecological Footprints of imports and exports of nations with the possibility to track their origin via inter-industry linkages, international supply chains and multi-national trade flows.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis

In recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and/or pollution generation embodied in trade flows, including contributions that combine input-output techniques and Ecological Footprint analysis. In this two-part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and/or pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows (Part 1) and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments (Part 2). It is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input-output approach to capture international trade flows. However, in practice, problems of data availability and compatibility, and of computability of extended input-output matrices, mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied, but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit. What appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which Ecological Footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input-output accounting analysis. This allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short-cut methods in a transparent way. The objective of this paper is to provide such an account.     

Considering the effects of imprecision and uncertainty in ecological footprint estimation: An approach in a fuzzy environment

This paper demonstrates the development of the Ecological Footprint within a fuzzy environment. The approach taken provides a means to understand the impacts of imprecision and uncertainty in the input-output framework, which forms a cornerstone of many recently constructed Footprint estimates. The paper uses, as a basis, an example of Footprint construction presented in the paper of Bicknell et al. [Bicknell, K.B., Ball, R.J., Cullen, R., Bigsby, H.R., 1998. New methodology for the Ecological Footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy. Ecological Economics 27, 149-160]. The analysis considers levels of fuzziness surrounding the technical coefficients in the underlying input-output framework. The results presented fully exposit the effect of the defined analysis, including the presentation of; fuzzy sector Ecological Footprints and overall fuzzy Ecological Footprint. Accompanying these findings, the fuzzy versions of certain moments associated with these Footprints are also presented, namely possibilistic mean and variance. The findings contribute to the elucidation of the potential policy impacts afforded when acknowledging imprecision and uncertainty in the data used in estimating Ecological Footprints.     

A review of recent multi-region input-output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting

The interest in consumption-based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly. Many studies juxtapose consumer emissions (carbon footprint) and producer (territorial) emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget. To this end, a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions. Input-output approaches, and increasingly multi-region input-output (MRIO) models, are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra-national level. With increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts, environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale.After a brief overview of salient single-region input-output studies I provide an in-depth review of the most recent multi-region input-output models used for the purpose of consumption-based environmental accounting. The main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009. This is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in MRIO analysis, an area which has not received a lot of attention so far. I conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas, a) improvements in data availability and quality and b) improvements in the accuracy of MRIO modelling.     

大都市区贸易隐含碳测算及其失衡度分析——以北京为例

采用MRIO模型,测算了1997—2007年北京国内外贸易中的隐含碳及其构成、行业分布和失衡度。结果表明:历年北京均是国内贸易隐含碳的净调入方;1997年、2002年北京是国际贸易隐含碳的净出口方,但2007年逆转为净进口方;北京一半以上的调出和出口隐含碳都是为满足其他国家和地区的中间投入而排放的,多半以上的调入和进口隐含碳是为满足本地最终需求而排放的;北京的国内外贸易隐含碳失衡现象严重,失衡度行业主要是原料、燃料及其加工型行业和轻型装备制造业。     

Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input–output analysis

We present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national Ecological Footprints by economic sector, detailed final demand category, sub-national area or socio-economic group. This is done by combining existing National Footprint Accounts with input–output analysis. Calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the United Kingdom, covering the reporting period 2000. Ecological Footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the COICOP classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment. The method presented enables the calculation of comparable Ecological Footprints on all sub-national levels and for different socio-economic groups. The novelty of the approach lies in the use of input–output analysis to re-allocate existing Footprint accounts, in the detail of disaggregation by consumption category and in the expanded use of household expenditure data. This extends the potential for applications of the Ecological Footprint concept and helps to inform scenarios, policies and strategies on sustainable consumption. The method described in this paper can be applied to every country for which a National Footprint Account exists and where appropriate economic and environmental accounts are available. The approach helps to save time in data collection and improves the consistency between Ecological Footprint estimates for a particular human society from different researchers. For these reasons, the suggested methodology includes crucial steps on the way towards a standardisation of Ecological Footprint accounts.     

From ecological footprint to ecological rent: An economic indicator for resource constraints

This paper takes as a starting point a combination of an input-output model with a national Ecological Footprint account for Germany in the spirit of Wiedmann et al. [Wiedmann, T., Minx, J., Barrett, J., Wackernagel, M., 2006. Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input-output analysis. Ecological Economics. 56, 28-48]. Footprint as well as Biocapacity is dealt with at the industry level. Gross output of each industry and final demand for each industry can then be split up into a share that is reconcilable with Biocapacity and another share that corresponds to the ‘Ecological Deficit’. The Ecological Footprint concept is extended in this study by introducing the additional biocapacity necessary for sustaining the given level of economic activity. It is assumed that each industry had to rent the corresponding areas and to apply a given technology in order to make this additional land biophysically productive. That results in an additional technology for each industry leading to an increase in costs and prices. The new price level is directly linked to the share of output that corresponds to Biocapacity overshooting, which is defined by the ‘Ecological Deficit’. Economic indicators can be derived by measuring the income difference brought about by the price increase. This difference corresponds to a Ricardian rent which is due to resource constraints on output growth.     

Global impacts of the Kyoto agreement: results from the MS-MRT model

This paper analyzes the economic impacts on different regions of the world of a global agreement to limit carbon emissions. A multi-sector, multi-region trade model (MS-MRT) is developed that focuses on the international trade aspects of climate change policy. These include the distribution of impacts on economic welfare, international trade and investment across regions, the spillover effects of carbon emission limits in Annex 1 countries on non-Annex 1 countries, carbon leakage, changes in terms of trade and industry output, and the effects of international emissions trading. Our central estimates are presented with a set of sensitivity tests to assess the extent to which our conclusions depend on elasticity and baseline assumptions. A technical appendix presents algebraic details of the model structure and calibration.     

The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.     

Sharing resources: The global distribution of the Ecological Footprint

This paper examines how the human demand on bioproductive lands, as measured by the Ecological Footprint, is distributed across the globe using methods commonly used to measure the distribution of income. Measuring the distribution of natural resource use will be necessary to achieve an economy that is sustainable, just and efficient. Currently, different nations place different demands on the environment, i.e. the Ecological Footprint is not evenly distributed across the globe. Calculation of the Gini coefficient for total Ecological Footprint and its components explains the sources of inequality in overall resource use. Calculation of the Atkinson index shows how inequality in the Ecological Footprint is related to the inequality of income, and environmental intensity.     

EE-IO modeling of the environmental impacts of Finnish imports using different data sources

The environmental impacts of Finnish imports were modeled using alternative emission datasets. The first dataset was based on domestic technology assumptions from the Finnish environmentally extended input-output (EE-IO) model. In the second dataset, emissions of the largest volumes of imported goods were substituted for EIOLCA (USA) data and in the third option for data from Ecoinvent and the Danish LCA Food Database. Comparative results show that the environmental impacts of imports based on domestic emission intensities are mostly lower than the alternative approaches. Considering the high level of Finnish environmental protection we concluded that the impacts of imports are underestimated using domestic emission intensities. Additionally, we concluded that hybrid IO modeling will increase the accuracy of IO modeling by using process-based data for the most relevant material flows until a multi-regional IO model for Finland has been developed.     

Trading spaces: Calculating embodied Ecological Footprints in international trade using a Product Land Use Matrix (PLUM)

Nations import and export biophysical resources. With many ecosystems worldwide under mounting stress, countries may be increasingly interested in knowing the extent and origin of their ecological imports and dependencies. In this paper the Ecological Footprint is used as a tool to measure the biophysical (as opposed to financial) value of international trade flows. This paper attempts to answer the following question: How large of an Ecological Footprint does a given country exert inside the borders of each of its trading partners? Records in the UN COMTRADE bilateral trade database are multiplied by a matrix of per-product Footprint yield coefficients to translate from values in dollars and tonnes to units of hectares. The results show that the largest interregional flows are from Latin to North America, and from North America to Asia-Pacific. Grouping countries by GDP, high and middle income countries appear in Footprint terms to trade predominantly with other high and middle income countries and much less with low income countries.     

What to expect from an international system of tradable permits for carbon emissions

We use an econometrically-estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of using a system of internationally-tradable emissions permits to control world carbon dioxide emissions. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on flows of trade and international capital. Our results show that international trade and capital flows significantly alter projections of the domestic effects of emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows, and that under some systems of international permit trading the United States is likely to become a significant permit seller, the opposite of the conventional wisdom.     

Capital Malleability, Emission Leakage and the Cost of Partial Climate Policies: General Equilibrium Analysis of the European Union Emission Trading System

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are the premier analytical platform for assessing the economic impacts of climate change mitigation. But these models tend to treat physical capital as “malleable”, capable of reallocation among sectors over the time-period for which equilibrium is solved. Because the extent to which capital adjustment costs might dampen reallocation is not well understood, there is concern that CGE assessments understate the true costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies. This paper uses a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model to investigate cap-and-trade schemes, such as the European Union Emission Trading System which cover a subset of the economy, elucidating the effects of capital malleability on GHG abatement, the potential for emission leakage from abating to non-abating sectors, and the impacts on welfare. To simplify the complex interactions being simulated within the CGE model, that analysis is complemented with an analytical model. A partial climate policy results in negative internal carbon leakage, with emissions declining not only in capped sectors but also in non-regulated ones. This result is stronger when capital is intersectorally mobile. Interestingly, in partial climate policy settings capital malleability can amplify or attenuate welfare losses depending on the attributes of the economy.     

Environmental Input-Output Models for Life-Cycle Analysis

The Leontief input-output model has beenapplied for macro environmental analysis since1970, and life cycle analysis has been used inindustrial design over the last decade. Thispaper presents two extended environmentalinput-output models for life cycle analysis inpollutant abatement and towards resourcerecycling. It is demonstrated that thesuggested models are systematic tools that canbe used for integrated environmental analysisand planning.     

对外贸易对我国生态环境影响的实证分析

学术界对对外贸易与生态环境的关系还存在争论。本文建立了对外贸易影响环境的投入产出分析模型，并以此模型为基础，利用我国2002年投入产出表和我国能源消费数据，对我国2002年对外贸易对环境的影响进行了实证分析，得出了对外贸易有利于我国生态环境改善的结论。     

中美贸易中隐含的碳排放以及贸易环境效应——基于环境投入产出法的实证分析

中美贸易的巨额逆差带来的不仅仅是贸易问题,还包括一系列的环境问题。利用环境投入产出模型测算1997年-2009年中美贸易中所隐含的CO2排放量,得出如下结论:中美贸易中中国大部分行业污染贸易条件均大于1,且呈不断恶化趋势;出口规模越大、贸易竞争力越强的产业单位出口的CO2排放强度越小,中国出口美国的产品与污染品并无必然联系;美国对华FDI转移并未引起美国污染产业向中国转移,而全球FDI向华转移使得"污染天堂"理论在华成立;中国出口CO2排放速度低于其出口速度,单位出口的CO2排放强度呈下降趋势;改变中国污染顺差国的地位,中国需加强对美国污染品的进口,积极改变粗放型的生产方式,加快对价值链高端清洁产品的生产。     

A research agenda for improving national Ecological Footprint accounts

Nation-level Ecological Footprint accounts are currently produced for more than 150 nations, with multiple calculations available for some nations. The data sets that result from these national assessments typically serve as the basis for Footprint calculations at smaller scales, including those for regions, cities, businesses, and individuals. Global Footprint Network's National Footprint Accounts, supported and used by more than 70 major organizations worldwide, contain the most widely used national accounting methodology today. The National Footprint Accounts calculations are undergoing continuous improvement as better data becomes available and new methodologies are developed. In this paper, a community of active Ecological Footprint practitioners and users propose key research priorities for improving national Ecological Footprint accounting. For each of the proposed improvements, we briefly review relevant literature, summarize the current state of debate, and suggest approaches for further development. The research agenda will serve as a reference for a large scale, international research program devoted to furthering the development of national Ecological Footprint accounting methodology.     

Taking the “U” out of Kuznets: A comprehensive analysis of the EKC and environmental degradation

Unlike most Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) studies which focus on narrow measures of pollution as proxies for environmental quality, we test the validity of the EKC using the Ecological Footprint (EF), a more comprehensive measure of environmental degradation. We find no empirical evidence of an EKC relationship between the EF and economic development, and only limited support for such a relationship among the components of the EF. In addition, we discover that energy is largely responsible for the lack of an EKC relationship, and that energy consumption levels would have to be cut by over 50% in order for a statistically significant EKC relationship to emerge from the data. Overall, these results suggest that growth alone will not lead to sustainable development.     

Tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective

Globally, trade flows of agricultural products are increasing. While value is typically added along the whole production chain, certain environmental impacts, such as land and water use, biomass appropriation, and soil degradation, are intrinsically linked to where the primary products originate from. When taking a consumer oriented approach on environmental problems, bilateral trade statistics can help in providing a clearer picture about the location of impacts caused by consumption elsewhere. However, in today's increasingly globalized world, consumer goods are often imported from countries other than where the primary product originated from. For instance, soybeans are transported from Brazil to the Netherlands, where they are processed into soy oil, which is shipped to Austria, where it is consumed. Utilizing bilateral trade matrices and matrix algebra, we present a method that allows to clearly link consumption patterns to the origin of primary products. In this, the method can help to provide information about consumption related, distant environmental impacts. We employ the case of land and water use linked to Austria's soy product consumption to demonstrate the approach's relevance. Finally, we outline some possible applications of this method to show its potential in enhancing understanding for informed consumer based environmental decision making.