Small firms in Portugal: a selective survey of stylized facts,economic analysis,and policy implications

I survey a number of stylized facts pertaining to the dynamics of firm entry, growth, and exit in competitive industries. I focus particularly on data for Portugal, although I also consider, for comparison purposes, data from other countries. I then present a series of theoretical models that attempt to explain the stylized facts and evaluate the welfare impact of market distortions. Finally, I derive a number of policy implications, all centered around the notion of economic mobility.

Economic development,human capital and technical change: the question of machinery revisited

A systemic element of prevailing economic growth and development is the massive introduction of machinery into the production process. The introduction of new technologies became decidedly a debated issue in economic analysis because of the dual character of technology, which simultaneously creates and destroys employment, advances and deteriorates labor skills. This paper attempts to introduce the relative issues and to assess the extent to which the introduction of machinery into the labor process improves human capital or simplifies labor skills and forms a stream of unskillful laborers.

Do authoritarian institutions mobilize economic cooperation?

This paper explores the effect of dictatorial institutions on revenue composition. The higher the degree of institutionalization of the regime, the higher the perceived levels of legitimacy, efficiency and credibility, so taxes that require cooperation and compliance can be more effectively collected from the population. Institutionalized regimes thus make sense if non-tax revenue sources are scarce so limited representation must be granted in exchange of economic support. Our selection-corrected results show that more institutionalized regimes are able to collect more taxes on income, profits and capital gains, taxes on goods and services, taxes on property and payroll taxes.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada

This paper investigates the response of major macroeconomic variables to four different types of tax policy innovations in Canada within a VAR framework. The positive tax multipliers documented in the previous literature are found only for corporate tax innovations. Our results indicate that different taxes affect output differently, and imply that the composition of total taxes may be a major factor behind cross-country variation in the sign and magnitude of total tax multipliers.

Addiction,social interactions and gender differences in cigarette consumption

This paper addresses the impact of addiction and social interactions on cigarette demand, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors. A Box–Cox double-hurdle model for the simultaneous decisions of how much to smoke and whether to quit smoking is estimated on individual data from the 2000 Italian “Health Status and Use of Health Services” survey. The model incorporates the fixed costs of quitting and allows for the analysis of the effects of addiction and social interactions on smoking participation and cigarette consumption. Estimation results show that the duration of the smoking habit, used as measure of addiction, significantly increases the level of cigarette consumption and lowers the probability of quitting. Social interactions significantly affect individual’s attitude toward smoking. Finally, gender differences are formally tested to verify whether male and female sub-samples can be pooled or should be separately analyzed. The hypothesis of equal consumption parameters is clearly rejected, suggesting the opportunity of distinguishing the consumption patterns of men and women.

Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices

This paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model for UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The estimated VAR indicates that the nominal variables are characterised by I(2) trends, and that a linear combination of these processes cointegrate to I(1). This supports an analysis in which I(1) and I(2) restrictions are imposed. A key finding is that an increase in real import prices reduces productivity adjusted real wages, such that the change in domestic inflation is moderated. This may explain why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged.

Charitable Donations: Evidence of Demand for Environmental Protection?

Using data from the 2001 Giving and Volunteering in the United States survey, I examine household charitable donations to environmental organizations. Household income has a positive impact on environmental giving. While the tax price affects overall charitable contributions, it does not affect environmental giving. More education, being female, homeownership, and voting are also associated with a greater likelihood of contributing to the environment. African-Americans and Latinos are less likely to contribute to the environment, although conditional on giving, Latinos give more. Retired persons and households with children are less likely to contribute to the environment. Larger households give less to the environment. Households from the Northeast are the most likely to make environmental contributions while households from the South are the least likely.

Regulation and revenue

The power to tax and the power to regulate are often analyzed separately. We argue that, when in the hands of a single authority, the power to tax may act as a check on the power to regulate, thereby discouraging regulations that adversely affect GDP, and promoting regulations that enhance GDP. This effect will be stronger the higher are (marginal) taxes. This argument is used both to suggest an explanation for the observed positive correlation between high taxes and economic freedom, and to warn against the granting of regulatory but not fiscal powers at the European level.

The Austrian income tax tariff, 1955–2006

Using official statistics and tax laws, we outline and discuss the evolution of the personal income tax in Austria since the beginning of the Second Republic in 1955. Focusing on the tax tariff and its progressivity properties, we identify a period of high (and increasing) progressivity before 1989, followed by a period of diminished progressivity since 1989. While still being a powerful revenue instrument, the Austrian income tax seems to have lost both redistributive impact and political allure.

Taxonomy: racism versus fiscal conservatism in voting on segregationist provisions in Alabama’s constitution

On Election Day 2004, a razor-thin majority of Alabama’s voters rejected a proposed amendment to remove overtly segregationist language from the state constitution. Opponents had contended that approval would have opened the legislative door to significantly higher taxes. We employ the results from two earlier special elections to analyze the outcome. In 2000, voters supported repealing a constitutional provision prohibiting interracial marriages. Three years later, Alabamians were asked to reveal their preferences with respect to additional taxation. The evidence suggests that opposition to higher taxes rather than bigotry was decisive in the rejection of Amendment 2 in 2004.

Testing the permanent-income hypothesis: new evidence from West-German states (Länder)

This paper investigates whether time-series data from 11 West-German states (L?nder) provide evidence in accord with the implication of the permanent-income hypothesis (PIH) for the stochastic relationship between consumption and income innovations. The empirical results do not support this hypothesis, in the sense that the response of consumption to income innovations is found to be much weaker than is predicted by the PIH. Moreover, for each individual state as well as for Germany as a whole, the response was found to be asymmetric, being stronger for negative than positive income innovations. This evidence of asymmetry is consistent with a model in which consumers are liquidity constrained.

The most popular tax in Europe? Lessons from the Irish plastic bags levy

There have been occasional ad hoc efforts to influence consumer behaviour by the imposition of product taxes that reflect external costs imposed by such products that are not initially included in their price. In the spirit of this idea, in 2002 Ireland introduced a 15 Euro cent tax on plastic shopping bags, previously provided free of charge to customers at points of sale. The effect of the tax on the use of plastic bags in retail outlets has been dramatic—a reduction in use in the order of 90%, and an associated gain in the form of reduced littering and negative landscape effects. Costs of administration have been very low, amounting to about 3% of revenues, because it was possible to integrate reporting and collection into existing Value Added Tax reporting systems. Response from the main stakeholders: the public and the retail industry, has been overwhelmingly positive. Central to this acceptance has been a policy of extensive consultation with these stakeholders. The fact that a product tax can influence consumer behaviour significantly will be of interest to many policymakers in this area. This paper analyses the plastic bag levy success story and provides insights and general guidelines for other jurisdictions planning similar proposals.

On local indeterminacy and endogenous cycles in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households

It is well-known that endogenous cycles can occur in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households and borrowing constraints. In this note, we address the issue of robustness in the more general case of endogenous labor supply and we explain the occurrence of local indeterminacy under progressive taxation.

Violence against women, social learning, and deterrence

We develop a simple model of sexual and domestic violence. By assumption, the potential victim’s threat to report if she is victimized is not credible, which implies that the only sequential equilibrium involves violence. However, a realistic social learning process converges to a non-sequential equilibrium without violence from all nearby states if the expected punishment for offenders whose victims report to the police is sufficiently high. A policy to increase the sentences for sexual and domestic violence convictions could therefore substantially reduce such violence in the long run, even if it is powerless to make women’s threats to report credible.

Entry and fiscal policy effectiveness in a small open economy within a Monetary Union

In this article I develop an imperfectly competitive dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union. Here, the type of entry in the non-traded goods’ sector affects fiscal policy effectiveness. Fiscal policy effectiveness is enlarged when aggregate demand stimuli increase intra-industrial competition (case I). This is due to the counter-cyclical mark-up mechanism generated by entry. Such a mechanism is absent in the usual monopolistic competition where entry only has a sharing effect (case II).

Stylised features of consumer price setting behaviour in Portugal: 1992–2001

This paper identifies the empirical stylized features of consumer price setting behavior in Portugal using two micro-datasets underlying the consumer price index. The main conclusions are: one in every four prices change each month; there is a considerable degree of heterogeneity in price setting practices; prices of goods change more often than prices of services; price reductions are common, as they account to around 40% of total price changes; price changes are, in general, sizeable; finally, the price setting patterns seem to depend on the level of inflation as well as on the type of outlet.

New small firm survival in England

This paper investigates the determinants of the survival, between 2001 and 2004, of 622 small firms in England. Seventy one percent of these firms were less than 5 years old in 2001. Prior work by industrial economists has primarily focussed upon factors such as profitability and exit barriers. In contrast, this paper adopts a more managerial approach by examining whether the human capital of the business owner and organisational variables explain survival and non-survival. Our results suggest the founder’s education and bank finance promote firm survival. Firms which compete on price, or report being financially constrained at start-up, are much less likely to survive.

Bayesian estimation of cointegrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

Ramifications of a Flat Tax—Shifting the Burden to the Middle Class

An alternative to the current US tax system would be a flat tax. According to its supporters, the flat tax would decrease the complexity of the tax system. Opponents contend that the flat tax will shift the tax burden to the middle class. The current research tested the claim that the flat tax will shift the tax burden to the middle class by developing simulations of two flat tax proposals, the Steve Forbes Plan and the Hall and Rabushka Plan, and then examining the change in the tax burden for different income levels as compared to the current tax system. The results show that both plans shift more of the tax burden to middle income class taxpayers than under the current US tax system.