当前我国货币政策工具选择的依据及运用

2010年我国调整了实施两年多的宽松货币政策,宣布2011年实行稳健的货币政策。使货币政策从宽松转向稳健的最直接原因是目前我国物价上涨加快,资产泡沫化加剧,通胀预期上升。但是,紧缩货币政策工具的力度除了考虑国内物价因素以外,还应考虑到国际因素。当前,外围主要经济体增长率下滑、失业率高企,因而当前甚至今后一段时间内,央行在使用紧缩货币政策工具收紧流动性、防止资产泡沫风险时,应把握好节奏和力度,以防经济硬着陆风险。     

Mind the Gap: Inconsistencies Between Subjective and Objective Financial Risk Tolerance

Investors' financial risk tolerance is crucial in the formulation of suitable financial advice; in the past, assessment efforts relied on multiple approaches and techniques, but their consistency is still an issue. The authors focus on 2 metrics traditionally proposed (self-assessment and portfolio composition) and test their mutual consistency on a sample of 2,374 investors. The approach allows them to discriminate between inconsistencies due to wrong portfolio compositions and those arising from wrong self-assessments. The authors show that low financial literacy, high income, no children, and incautious economic behavior are commonly associated with such inconsistencies.     

金融系统气候风险的评估、定价与政策应对:基于文献的评述

减缓和适应气候变化是人类社会21世纪面临的最重要议题。气候变化不仅对人身和社会财富安全构成威胁,而且影响金融系统的稳定性。气候变化通过物理风险和转型风险渠道影响金融部门,前者主要表现为直接物理损失,后者则与高碳行业的资产搁浅有关。通过金融市场的传染,转型风险有可能引发新一轮的金融系统性风险。气候金融风险具有高度不确定性以及厚尾分布的特点,对现有建模和评估方法提出挑战。央行以及金融监管机构作为维护价格和金融稳定的执行机构,应考虑将气候金融风险纳入监管之中,推动各方金融参与者披露相关气候风险,完善数据平台建设,并应进一步采取适当的货币政策和宏观审慎政策,激励资金向低碳部门流动。     

个体特质、信息获取与风险态度——来自中国股民的调查分析

本文利用中国6个城市的733位股市投资者的调查数据,分析了投资者的风险偏好状况及其影响因素。研究显示,我国投资者的总体风险态度是风险规避型的,进一步的多变量Logit回归分析发现,投资者的部分个体特质(比如受教育程度、职业)、个人财富状况会显著影响投资者的风险偏好;投资经验的积累会降低其风险系数。一个创新的研究结果是投资者获取信息的渠道和对媒体的信任程度会对投资者风险态度有显著影响,具体来说,信息来源更为丰富的渠道会提高投资者的风险偏好程度,而对新闻媒体的信任程度越低,风险偏好程度也会提高。这些研究结论对券商有针对性的进行客户管理、证券监管部门加强投资者的风险控制、新闻媒体的监管等等,都有重要的政策意义。     

The Role of Regulatory Focus and Information in Investment Choice: Some Evidence Using Visual Cues to Frame Regulatory Focus

This study examines the role of regulatory focus and additional information on risk preferences in investment choice using an experimental approach. The findings reveal that situational regulatory focus plays an important role in influencing investment choice. In particular, a congruent promotion-focused image and related message increases risk-taking behavior in terms of choice for stocks rather than fixed deposits, whereas the reverse is true for a congruent prevention-focused image and related message. However, this relationship depends on the amount of information available during the decision-making process, and regulatory focus has a stronger impact on investment choice under the condition without additional financial information.     

Measuring welfare losses from interruption and pricing as responses to water shortages: an application to the case of Seville

Supply cuts and pricing policies can be used to ration water. The appropriateness of a given policy depends on the losses in social welfare which it generates. We find some drawbacks with the only method in the previous literature which deals with the issue of measuring welfare losses under supply cuts. We propose an alternative method. We compare the welfare losses under supply cuts and a pricing policy during the drought period of 1992–1996 in Seville, Spain, using both methods, and find that the results vary widely from one method to the other.      

怎样看待当前的货币信贷形势——基于科学发展观的一个视角

针对当前我国经济领域中存在的货币信贷快速增长和固定资产投资反弹现象,本文从科学发展观视角全面剖析了当前货币信贷的运行轨迹,并就货币信贷快速增长与固定资产投资反弹可能引发的相关问题进行了思考.本文认为,当前我国货币信贷快速增长的根源在于人民币汇率的错配与国内实行的低利率甚至负利率所致,因此,当前我国的政策应当重点从加快利率市场化改革、加快汇率市场化改革、加快推进金融体制改革和加快推动金融市场建设等4个方面入手.     

Liberalisation,Financial Risk,and Formal Financial Participation in Pakistan: Hyperinflationary Microeconomic Responses to Moderate Volatility in a Developing Economy

With formal financial inclusion much lower than its neighbours, Pakistan has been the focus of intensive efforts to ‘bank’ the ‘unbanked’. Yet, after a drop in deposits in the wake of Pakistan’s 2008 crisis, deposits are still struggling to return to their mid-1990s’ levels. Focusing on distortions in the banking sector, the Central Bank attributes this to ‘crowding out’ amidst a steep rise in the propensity to consume. This study draws on extensive fieldwork, identifying heightened financial risk driven by multifaceted monetary instability since the liberalisation of the rupee and of Pakistani markets. It proposes that heightened monetary risk has translated into a broad-based shift out of the rupee akin to hyperinflationary responses, but revealed in relatively moderate monetary conditions. It argues that, exposed to global markets, national currency itself has become a risky asset, pushing store-of-value and transactional holdings into unconventional liquid assets. This suggests that monetary stability, expressed in the currency itself and in broader pricing patterns in the economy, is key to the uptake of financial intermediation. The issue at the root of disintermediation in Pakistan, it is argued, is less one of ‘crowding out’ than of disruption to the role of national currency as money itself.