Real options or disaster risk? Distinguishing uncertainty effects on investment

ABSTRACT

Motivated by the fact that uncertainty shocks are a countercyclical phenomenon, this article takes a deeper look at the nature of uncertainty shocks in times of crisis and its effect on the real economy. We distinguish between volatility and disaster risk shocks and specify the consequences of these shock specifications on investment decisions. We first analyse the different impact of both shocks within a real options framework. Our theoretical results show that the effects of the two shocks are different, especially concerning disinvestment and the mid-term investment response. Second, we perform structural vector autoregression (SVAR) estimations on different country data sets. The SVAR estimations confirm our theoretical hypothesis: countries more prone to states of disaster do not show the usual real option pattern of investment to an uncertainty shock.     

Real Option and Strategic Decision Making of Duopoly

Other than traditional valuation methods, the real option approach captures the flexibility inherent in investment decisions to make the optimal decision of a finn in isolation from its competitors. In reality, however, the actions or decisions of competing fn-ms （practical or potential） often affect each other＇s investment opportunity. The value of the project for the firms is assumed to follow a Geometric Brownian motion, and the model combines game theory and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. This paper characterizes the resulting Nash equilibrium under different assumptions on the information that the firms have each other＇s valuation for the project.     

基于动态模式的实物期权管理研究

组织面临的市场变幻莫测、组织的战略重点发生转移,各种不确定因素对实物期权的影响加重,组织的投资决策就会受到影响。本文通过影响实物期权管理的几种因素进行分析,建立动态的实物期权管理系统,通过各个系统的协同模型,运用灰色系统理论,实现动态的实物期权管理。     

Competition schemes and investment in network infrastructure under uncertainty

This paper compares two specific types of competition schemes—service-based and facility-based competition—by focusing on a firm’s incentive to invest in network infrastructure. We show that when monopoly rent is large, facility-based competition means that the initial introduction of infrastructure is made earlier than under service-based competition. However, when monopoly rent and the degree of uncertainty are both small, service-based competition brings about the earlier initial introduction of infrastructure than facility-based competition. The paper includes discussion of the policy implications of these findings.      

An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species

The management of non-native invasive species is a complex but crucial task given the potential for economic and environmental damages. For many invasions the development of socially optimal control strategies requires more than is offered by the single-species, single-control models that have dominated this area of research. We develop a general stochastic optimal control framework that accommodates multiple interacting species while accounting for uncertainty in the temporal population dynamics. This extension to the current line of bioeconomic control models allows for the design of optimal integrated pest management strategies that utilize both chemical and biological controls in an environment of uncertainty and irreversibility. We demonstrate the benefits of combining chemical and biological controls in long term management strategies through a case study of the hemlock wooly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) infestation in the eastern United States. In this application we find that the introduction of natural predators is usually sufficient to manage the infestation, though chemical insecticides can play an important role when detection of the infestation is delayed or when the biological control agent does not sufficiently increase mortality of the invasive species.     

不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应:一个文献综述

本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。     

Access pricing and investment: a real options approach

This paper examines a three-period model of an investment decision in a network industry characterized by demand uncertainty, economies of scale and sunk costs. In the absence of regulation we identify the market conditions under which a monopolist decides to invest early as well as the overall welfare generated by this decision. In a regulated environment, we consider a vertically integrated network provider that is required to provide access to downstream competitors and compare two distinct access pricing methodologies: the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Option to Delay Pricing Rule (ODPR). We identify the welfare-maximizing access prices using the unregulated market output as a benchmark and show that optimal access regulation depends on market conditions (that is, the nature of demand) with two possible outcomes: (i) access prices that provide a positive payoff to the incumbent, that is, provide a positive compensation to account for the option to delay; and (ii) access prices that yield a zero payoff to the incumbent. Moreover, unlike the earlier literature that argues in favor of an ECPR-type methodology to account for the interaction between irreversibility and demand uncertainty, we find that, except under very specific conditions, an access price that accounts for the option to delay value is welfare-superior to the ECPR.      

The choice and timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty

This paper sheds new light on why timing and entry mode should be considered simultaneously in the international investment literature. We derive the profit levels at which it is optimal to switch from exporting to setting up a wholly owned subsidiary, creating a joint venture, or licensing production to a local firm. The preferred entry mode depends on uncertainty about future profits, tax differentials between the home and the foreign country, the cost advantages of local firms, institutional requirements, and the degree of cooperation between partners in a joint venture.     

Government incentive strategies and private capital participation in China’s Shale gas development

Shale gas development investments are uncertain and irreversible in the initial stage in China. Flexible incentive strategy is needed for governments to guide private capital participation at different development stages. This study aims to provide analysis governments can use to encourage private investment in shale gas projects according to its plans in an extended real options framework. A social benefits variable is introduced to determine the threshold of social benefits that determine whether the government will choose a deferred or instant incentives strategy. By considering the efficiency factor, we show the optimal arrangements of two kinds of incentives: tax cuts and production subsidies, to implement incentive targets. The results indicate that current market demand and social benefits are the key factors that affect the government’s choice of incentive strategy. We also find that the optimal level of incentives, either tax cuts or production subsidies, are independent of current market demand and future market uncertainty under the delayed incentive strategy, but which affect the optimal level of incentives under the instant motivation strategy, and ignoring the negative influence of unpredictable random events on future market demand might lead to insufficient government incentives in this case.     

Linking technology intelligence to open innovation

The explosive growth of the Internet has led to a dramatic increase in data sources for (competitive) technology intelligence. Appropriate implementation and use of IT tools to gather and analyze these data is of key importance for the creation of actionable technology intelligence. A strategy to optimize investments in the identified technologies becomes of paramount importance if an organization wants to match knowledge and ideas originating from outside of the organization with internal core competences. Such a strategy can create competitive advantage by effectively linking technology intelligence to open innovation.We show how VIB, a life sciences research organization, has established technology intelligence processes to identify a multitude of external technologies of interest, which are subsequently “probed” for their potential and fit with VIB using real options reasoning, thereby supporting open innovation. Our methodology may be useful for other organizations which are considering implementing open innovation approaches.     

基于实物期权的突破性创新投资决策分析

鉴于突破性创新无论是在创新本身特性还是在机会识别以及技术发展过程等方面均与传统的渐进性创新截然不同,导致其投资决策分析所采用传统的DCF法和NPV判断规则将不能完全反映整个创新过程中投资者所面临诸多动态变化的不确定性影响因素以及由此带来项目价值的改变。因此如何选择正确的投资决策方法来准确估算投资项目的价值,把握项目创新过程中最佳的投资机会,是众多投资者的困惑,也是企业突破性创新发展成功的根本保证之一。通过剖析突破性创新的特点和传统投资决策分析方法的弊端,引入了以二项式或四项式为基础的实物期权模型来估计项目价值,充分考虑了项目突破性创新过程中各种不确定性因素对项目价值的影响,具有很强的实践价值。     

Is the price of gold to gold mining stocks asymmetric?

If an asymmetric relation exists between the prices of gold and gold mining stocks, then these firms possess real option characteristics, and therefore, a premium should be added to their valuation. This article examines this proposition, by firstly, using quantile regressions, which are ideally suited to examine asymmetries, and secondly, by accounting for endogenously determined structural breaks in the data. Our findings provide no support for an asymmetric relation. Furthermore, we also show that out-of-sample forecasting shows there is no causality from the gold price to the prices of those gold mining shares used in the sample.     

Option exercise with temptation

This paper adopts the Gul and Pensendorfer self-control utility model to analyze an agent’s option exercise decision under uncertainty over an infinite horizon. The agent decides whether and when to do an irreversible activity. He is tempted by immediate gratification and suffers from self-control problems. The cost of self-control lowers the benefit from continuation or stopping and may erode the option value of waiting. When applied to the investment and exit problems, the model can generate the behavior of procrastination and preproperation. In addition, unlike the hyperbolic discounting model, the model here provides a unique prediction. I thank Drew Fudenberg, Bart Lipman, Neng Wang, and participants in the BU theory lunch workshop and in the Canadian Economic Theory Conference 2005 for helpful discussions. I am especially grateful for valuable suggestions from an anonymous referee and coeditor Steve Williamson. The BU ISP Seed Grant has supported this research.     

房地产价格与国民收入分配的互动关系——基于联立方程模型的实证研究

本文基于省级面板数据,运用联立方程模型(SEM)和两阶段最小二乘(TSLS)估计法研究发现,房价与国民收入分配中的资本收入份额存在相互作用关系。房价上涨1%会使资本收入份额提升0.16%到0.43%,资本收入份额上升1%则会推动房价上涨约0.39%到0.54%。不过,这种相互作用机制存在一定的区域异质性,即在东部地区资本收入份额的提高会显著推高房价,而中西部地区后者对前者的影响效应更为明显。要实现房地产市场的健康成长,离不开国民收入分配结构的调整优化,而鼓励对适合我国劳动力比较优势的实体经济进行投资、减少资本对房地产的投机炒作,将有助于促进国民收入分配中劳动收入份额的提升。     

文化距离对我国企业国际化空间导向的影响——以纺织企业为例

既有的研究表明,文化距离是企业国际化过程中的重要因素。本文以我国纺织企业为例,对文化距离与我国企业国际化空间导向的相关性进行了度量。研究结论是,文化距离是我国企业国际化空间导向的重要维度,但由于我国企业有其自身的特点,因而影响方式和程度与其他国家有所区别。