Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator

This article uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of a reduction in the means‐tested benefit taper, or withdrawal, rates in Australia to 30 per cent. That is, all taper rates of 50 per cent and 70 per cent in the March 1998 benefit system are reduced to 30 per cent, while leaving all basic benefit levels unchanged. This change is therefore expected to ‘flatten’ the tax structure by reducing the high marginal tax rates applying to those with relatively low incomes and increasing the marginal tax rates of medium incomes. Simulations in which all individuals are assumed to remain at their pre‐reform labour supply levels are compared with behavioural simulations in which the majority of individuals are free to adjust the number of hours worked. The results reflect only the supply side of the labour market. The database used is the 1997‐98 Survey of Income and Housing Costs, so that weekly incomes are based on the financial year 1997‐98. The comparison shows that, for sole parents, accounting for behavioural effects of the reform results in a lower estimated expenditure for government, whereas for couples, accounting for behavioural effects results in a higher estimated expenditure.     

Effects of health insurance on labour supply: evidence from the health care fund for the poor in Vietnam

The expansion of health insurance in emerging countries raises concerns about the unintended negative effects of health insurance on labour supply. This article examines the labour supply effects of the Health Care Fund for the Poor (HCFP) in Vietnam in terms of the number of work hours per month and labour force participation (the probability of employment). Employing various matching methods combined with a Difference-in-Differences approach on the Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2002–2006, we show that the HCFP, which aims to provide poor people and disadvantaged minority groups with free health insurance, has a negative effect on labour supply. This is manifested in both the average number of hours worked per month and the probability of employment, suggesting the income effect of the HCFP. Interestingly, the effects are mainly driven by the non-poor recipients living in rural areas, raising the question of the targeting strategy of the programme.     

Fertility and labor supply: evidence from the One-Child Policy in China

This study provides new evidence on on the causal effect of fertility on maternal labor supply in rural China, using the fact that in some parts of rural China couples are allowed to have a second child if their firstborn is female. Estimates show that a second child reduces maternal labor force participation by 4.6 percentage points, labor supply intensity (hours worked conditional on employment) by 1.4 h per week and monthly income by 54.5 Chinese Yuan (18.7 percent). Further, the labor supply of mothers whose husbands are rural-to-urban migrants is the most sensitive to having an additional child, likely because they have more difficulty balancing farming and childcare. Conversely, labor supply is not reduced by fertility for mothers living in three-generation families, most likely because grandparents can provide both time and money to help with childcare.     

Female labour supply in Australia: Another example of a backward-bending labour supply curve

Hours worked by employed married females in Australia are analysed using techniques to correct for sample selection bias. Consistent with the conclusions of the study of female labour supply in the U.S. and Canada by Nakamura and Nakamura (1981), working wives work fewer hours per week when paid higher hourly wage rates.     

Expanding New York State's Earned Income Tax Credit Programme: the effect on work,income and poverty

Given its favourable employment incentives and ability to target the working poor, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has become the primary antipoverty programme at both the federal and state levels. However, when evaluating the effect of EITC programmes on income and poverty, governments generally calculate the effect using simple accounting, where the value of the state or federal EITC benefit is added to a person's income. These calculations omit the behavioural incentives created by the existence of these programmes, the corresponding effect on labour supply and hours worked, and therefore the actual effect on income and poverty. This article simulates the full effect of an expansion of the New York State EITC benefit on employment, hours worked, income, poverty and programme expenditures. These results are then compared to those omitting labour supply effects. Relative to estimates excluding labour supply effects, the preferred behavioural results show that an expansion of the New York State EITC increases employment by an additional 14?244 persons, labour earnings by an additional $95.8 million, family income by an additional $84.5 million, decreases poverty by an additional 56?576 persons and increases costs to the State by $29.7 million.     

For some mothers more than others

We estimate the effect of family size on female labour supply using data from Poland and instrumenting for family size with twinning at first and second birth. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to causally address this relationship in a post‐communist country. We identify the average causal effect of an additional child on mother's employment to be ?7.0 pp, but we do not find significant effects of additional children on female employment among families with two or more children. Furthermore, we identify a positive bias of OLS in the estimates among highly educated mothers and those from younger cohorts.     

How might the negative impact of higher education on growth be explained? The role of vertical qualification (mis)match in an MRW‐type model

This study explores the impact of higher education on growth in 11 new EU members over the period 2000–2016 using an augmented MRW‐type model which takes into account the quality of education and vertical mismatch. More precisely, it tests whether the accelerating increase of college graduates causes an oversupply of educated labour which, in turn, extends the qualification mismatch and adversely affects growth of per capita income. We find that an increase of the most educated labour force does not per se lead to a higher growth rate. The impact of human capital becomes positive and statistically significant only if graduates with occupations requiring tertiary education are considered in the model. In addition, the econometric outcome implies that the extent of skill mismatch is determined primarily by the rising female population with college education and the gross value added of trade‐related services.     

Does labour supply respond to a flat tax?

We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001 to identify the effect of taxes on the labour supply of men and women. We apply a weighted difference‐in‐difference regression approach and instrumental variables to estimate labour supply functions using a panel dataset. The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statistically significant increase in hours of work for men but had no effect on work hours for women. However, we find a positive response to tax changes in both tails of the female work hour distribution. We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both men and women. Despite significant variation in individual responses, the aggregate labour supply elasticities are trivial. This suggests that reform‐induced changes in labour supply are an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform.     

Current account composition and sustainability of external debt

This paper presents and tests a model of expectations of retirement, using data from a developing country. Using three stage least-squares, the expected amount of labour force participation at age 55 is shown to be positively related to current hours worked per week and to education. Current illness has little effect on quantity of employment at age 55. The effects of non-labour income sources are variable in sign and significance. The lack of significance is probably due to differences in the relevant time periods.     

Registered nurses: the impact of wages on labour force participation and hours worked – are wages an effective mechanism for addressing RN shortages with evidence from 1960 to 2008?

Registered nurses (RNs) are critical producers and coordinators of patient care in acute and non-acute settings (Needleman et al. 2011). The Affordable Care Act coupled with an ageing population, are increasing demand for health care and, in turn, RNs. Numbering 3 million, RNs comprise the largest professional occupation in health care. Therefore, the labour force participation and hours worked are of keen interest to stakeholders and policymakers. Rising demand may exacerbate nursing shortages and have important effects on costs. We estimate the impact of wages on participation and hours worked as a possible policy tool to increase nursing supply. In 2008, the RN wage had a positive and significant effect on participation and a small positive but only marginally significant effect on hours worked given participation. The latter elasticity for married females (single females) was 0.11 (0.33). Therefore, the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the nurse wage is and unlikely to have an important effect on the participation rates or hours worked of currently trained female RNs. Consequently, wage increases are unlikely to be an effective policy to increase the labour supply among the currently licensed RNs and will not relieve any short-term nursing shortage.     

No country for young men: International migration and left‐behind children in Tajikistan

This paper investigates the effects of international migration on the schooling and labour outcomes of left‐behind children in rural Tajikistan. Using three‐wave panel survey data, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy to address the non‐random selection into migration. I identify important and gender‐differenced schooling and labour supply responses. My findings suggest that boys living in migrant households are less likely to lag behind at school or work. At the intensive margin, they also report fewer hours of work per week. On the other hand, left‐behind teenage females undertake a higher number of domestic chores. They appear to marry earlier as well. The migration impact on boys appears to be driven by remittances and the improved financial situation of households. The absence of any positive influence on the education of left‐behind girls is likely to be explained by Tajikistan's cultural norms and institutions.     

Estimates of a labour supply function using alternative measures of hours of work

Depending on data source, estimates of hours of work give widely different results both as to level and change. In this paper three alternative measures of hours worked are used to estimate a simple labour supply function to investigate if the estimated wage rate and income effects are data dependent as well. The measures used include those from time-use surveys and those from regular surveys. The latter are based on the responses to a question about normal weekly hours of market work. The results suggest that the estimates of the wage rate effects become much smaller when measures of normal hours are used compared to data collected for a well-defined time period close to the date of interview, such as time-use data. The income effects appear less sensitive to the choice of data.     

Wives' motives and fertility

This analysis assumes that childhood learning has a strong impact on the measured motivations of adults. This study uses responses among 354 White married women in 1976 to the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT). Wives' responses to four pictures are expected to mirror the following four typologies: affiliation imagery (AFF), power imagery (POW), power and affiliation imagery (POWAF), and without references to affiliation or power (CULT). CULT is presumed to reflect the motivation of the wife in the average family. Expected relationships between these root motives and fertility are identified. Findings show that families with persuasive affiliative wives allocated more time to child care and had lower family incomes than other families. AFF wives worked fewer hours per week than other wives and allocated more time per child than other wives. Husbands helped them with child care sometimes or often. Households sacrificed material possessions for children. Findings did not support the inference that low income was due to husband's low earnings but did support the inference that low income might be due to the wives' short work week. The logistic model that controls for hours worked per week and number of years at the present job shows that wives were happiest in their marriage, if wives had high power motivation. Family income was a significant determinant of achievement satisfaction and not of affiliation satisfaction. Nerlove's hypothesis that there is an inverse relationship between wife's level of education and her taste for children was rejected. The wife's motivation toward her husband was an important factor that impacted on her preference for children and for work and her perceived level of utility. Wives who asserted themselves in socially acceptable situations (high in power motivations) were most likely to report having a happier than average marriage. Both affiliative and persuasive affiliative wives took satisfaction in their children's happiness and achievements.     

Taxes,female labour supply and household income: differences between the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany

The article investigates the effect of taxes and social premiums on female labour supply and household income. A comparison is made between labour supply and household income between the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1992. A discrete choice model for labour supply is used in which taxes and social premiums are implicitly incorporated. As male labour supply is highly inelastic an individual, male chauvinist model is used. The estimated models are used to simulate the effect of the differences in the tax and social premium system on the differences in labour supply and income between both countries. The results indicate that labour force participation is higher the more individualized the system. The German system leads to a lower tax burden compared to the Dutch system. It is concluded that differences in the tax and social premium system between both countries have hardly any influence on the differences in the inequality of net household labour income. There is evidence that the German system leads to a slightly more unequal distribution of household income. It is also concluded that although the tax and social premium system does influence labour supply and income, it can be doubted whether these effects are substantial.     

Labour-supply impacts of effective welfare programme parameters: a reanalysis

We quantify the impact of effective welfare programme parameters on the labour supply of single female household heads – the primary group of welfare recipients in the USA. Our panel of data is derived from the US Census Bureau's Current Population Survey for the years 1979 to 1990 inclusive. Behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with predictions made by economic theory. We find that effective welfare gurantee levels and the effective tax rate on earned income both significantly decrease labour supply. The marginal effects of these welfare programme parameters are economically small: a US$1000 increase in the expected welfare guarantee level reduces annual labour supply by about 36 hours; a 10 percentage point increase in the effective tax rate on earned income reduces annual labour supply by about 7.5 hours.     

Economic decision-making by cohabitors: findings regarding income pooling

Cohabitation rates are increasing in the US but little is known about how cohabitors make economic decisions. For instance, do female cohabitors treat their male partner's income as shared household income when choosing hours worked? Does income sharing differ among types of cohabitors? This study investigates whether or not cohabitors pool income by drawing inferences from a generalized model of labour supply. The empirical work uses data from the 1993 Current Population Survey and the 1987 National Survey of Families and Households. These data sets provide evidence that cohabitors, taken as a group, do not pool all income. However, there is also evidence that cohabitors are not homogeneous in their behaviour; income pooling is not rejected for cohabitors in longer-term relationships and for those who have a biological child together.     

Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work

This article compares five alternative policy options with the January 2006 tax and social security system. Each option is designed to cost a similar amount of approximately $5 billion per year to the government at the observed level of labour supply. The five options include reducing the lowest income tax rate, increasing the tax‐free threshold, increasing the low income tax offset, decreasing all taper rates on own and partner's incomes for a number of allowances, and introducing an earned income tax credit. The criteria for comparison are the labour supply responses, the expected budgetary cost to the government after taking into account labour supply responses, the number of winners and losers from the policy change, the effects on the distribution of effective marginal tax rates, and the effects on the number of jobless households. From the results, it is clear that the option to reduce taper rates is dominated by the other options on all criteria. The other four options each have their advantages and disadvantages; no option scores best on all criteria.     

China's regional income disparityAn alternative way to think of the sources and causes1

Using data on China's provincial economies for the period 1978–2005, we decomposed the causes and factors that have contributed to inter‐regional per capita income disparity. Variance in capital per employee and variance in capital elasticity are found to be the two main sources of income disparity while the employment–labour force ratio is shown to be an important factor in containing the rise of income disparity. An analysis on inter‐regional factor reallocation effects reveals their relatively small and insignificant contributions to overall growth performance. It is also discovered that capital has in most years flowed in the right direction to pursue higher marginal productivity across provincial economies. Inter‐provincial labour movement, on the other hand, had not displayed significant equilibrating effects until institutional reforms started to allow freer inter‐regional labour mobility in later years. Generally, we conclude that market‐oriented factor mobility has played a crucial role in equalizing factor returns as well as enhancing growth efficiency across regions.     

Remittances and labour allocation decisions at communities of origin: the case of rural Mexico

From a theoretical perspective, the effect that remittances have on the labour decisions of those that receive them is ambiguous; the empirical evidence reported in the literature is mixed and shows, unsurprisingly, that the net effect of remittances on labour supply is context-dependent. We contribute to this literature by using a detailed data set for rural Mexico that allows us to understand how remittances reshape rural livelihoods by modifying labour allocation decisions. Following previous evidence, we analyse female and male responses separately. Our results show that the income effect of remittances dominates male labour allocation decisions: the probability of participating in the labour market and the total number of hours worked decrease with remittances. We find no effect for female labour allocation decisions. The effects are not uniform across the different productive activities and remittances seem to be contributing to a trend in which Mexican rural inhabitants increasingly move away from agriculture- or nature-based activities. This reinforces the direct effect that emigration has in terms of a reduction in total supply of local labour.