UK Multinationals' Effective Use of Financial Currency‐Hedge Techniques: Estimating and Explaining Foreign Exchange Exposure Using Bilateral Exchange Rates

Using a unique dataset of recently available accounting disclosures, this study examines the relationship between UK multinationals' stock returns and changes in the principal exchange rate to which each firm is most exposed. We find more firms with significant foreign exchange exposure estimates using this firm‐specific principal currency data, compared with those exposure estimates using the broad exchange rate index data prevalent in prior studies. The cross‐sectional variations in such principal‐currency exposure estimates are explained in relation to the financial currency‐hedge techniques that each firm specifically identifies as being used to manage its currency risk. In particular, we provide evidence that firms effectively use foreign currency derivatives and foreign‐denominated debt to reduce the currency risk associated with the bilateral exchange rate to which they are most exposed. This study is important to both the academic and the practitioner communities because it represents the first use of publicly available UK disclosures to improve the estimation and explanation of foreign exchange exposure.     

Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure: Risk Reduction from Transaction and Translation Hedging

Using a sample of Swedish firms we investigate the risk reducing effect of foreign exchange exposure hedging. Further, we investigate risk reduction from using different hedging instruments, and particular interest is directed towards the impact of transaction exposure hedges and translation exposure hedges respectively. We find that firms' foreign exchange exposure is increasing with the level of inherent exposure, measured as the difference between revenues and costs denominated in foreign currency, and that it is decreasing with firm size. We find a significant reduction in foreign exchange exposure from the use of financial hedges. The evidence suggests that the usage of foreign denominated debt as well as currency derivatives reduce firms' foreign exchange exposure. Further, we find that transaction exposure hedges significantly reduce exposure, and that translation exposure hedges also reduce exposure. A possible explanation for the latter is that translation exposure approximates the exposed value of future cash flows from operations in foreign subsidiaries (i.e. economic exposure). If so, by hedging translation exposure, economic exposure is reduced.     

International tenders and futures hedging

This paper examines the optimal bidding and hedging decisions of a risk‐averse firm that takes part in an international tender. The firm faces multiple sources of uncertainty: exchange rate risk, risk of an unsuccessful tender, and business risk. The firm is allowed to trade unbiased currency futures contracts to imperfectly hedge its contingent foreign exchange risk exposure. We show that the firm shorts less (more) of the unbiased futures contracts when its marginal utility function is convex (concave) as compared with the case that the marginal utility function is linear. We further show that the curvature of the marginal utility function plays a decisive role in determining the impact of currency futures hedging on the firm's bidding behavior. Sufficient conditions that ensure the firm bids more or less aggressively than in the case without hedging opportunities are derived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign Currency Translation Reporting and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

This study further explores a structural break in the relation between stock returns of firms with foreign currency positions and lagged exchange rate changes (exchange rate exposure effect) documented in Bartov and Bodnar (1994). We examine whether changes in the financial accounting reporting of foreign currency positions from SFAS No. 52 might have improved investors' ability to characterize firms' economic exchange rate exposures, and thus the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value. Our findings indicate that only firms reporting using the dollar as the functional currency (i.e., those reporting as if they were still under SFAS No. 8) retain a significant relation between the lagged change in the dollar and firm value in the post-SFAS No. 52 period. For firms reporting using the foreign currency as the functional currency (i.e., those who switched to the new translation method) the significant lagged relation disappears. This is consistent with the use of a foreign currency as the functional currency under SFAS No. 52 facilitating valuation of U.S. firms with foreign operations.     

自由贸易试验区建设影响企业外汇衍生品投资吗?

本文采用2010～2019年A股上市公司样本,探究自由贸易试验区建设对企业外汇衍生品投资的影响.研究发现,自贸试验区设立后,试验区内及其所在地上市公司外汇衍生品投资倾向显著提升.异质性检验结果表明,这一关系在面临风险更高、资产周转能力较差、多国化经营程度较低、处于激烈竞争行业以及面临融资约束的样本中更为明显;在经济发展...     

Hedging Foreign Project Risk

We study the firm's hedging problem when there is uncertainty about whether its bid on a foreign project will be accepted. Most treatments of this problem suggest that foreign currency options are the preferred hedging instrument. However, we show that when the uncertainty pertaining to the realization of the foreign cash flow is unrelated to the exchange rate, which typically will be the case, futures dominate options as hedge vehicles.
Conversely, options hedging will be appropriate when the viability of the foreign project depends also on an exchange-rate contingency, as would be the case when the bidding firm can withdraw its bid if the foreign currency depreciates sufficiently.
In many cases, both futures and options will form part of the best hedge position. The general principle in forming the hedge is that futures will best offset exchange-rate exposure the existence of which is not exchange-rate contingent. Options will best hedge any costs or revenues that might occur in a foreign currency depending on the outcome of an exchange-rate contingency.     

Predictability in international stock returns using currency fluctuations and forward rate forecasts

We find that currency risk, specifically dollar exchange rate risk, is a determinant in firm stock returns worldwide. Firms exposed to various dollar exchange rate risks worldwide exhibit strong differences in expected returns, and firms with previously high sensitivity to their home country’s exchange rate fluctuation subsequently outperform during the following six to twelve months. This effect is robust across countries, time, exchange rate policies, and macroeconomic environments. We find that information in currency forward rates provides additional, useful information when predicting future returns of these currency-sensitive firms, and dynamic, state-space estimation of currency forward rate term structures complements the predictability.     

Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members

We evaluate the effect of exchange rate misalignments on the balance of trade and the role that global value chain participation plays in this effect for 11 new European Union member states. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration methods, we first estimate the real equilibrium exchange rate and detect episodes of currency misalignment. We find asymmetric effects of real currency misalignments: overvaluation has a negative effect, but undervaluation has no effect on the trade balance. Additionally, we find that global value chain participation weakens the effect of currency misalignments on the balance of trade. Therefore, our results suggest that globalization reduces the role of exchange rates in stimulating the domestic economy.     

The Introduction of the Euro and Derivative Use in French Firms

In January 1999 several European countries adopted a common currency, the “euro”. This important economic event provided an opportunity to examine the determinants of risk management in an environment where exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk was considerably reduced. For a sample of French firms we found the decline in the use of FX derivatives was greater for firms with substantial sales within the euro zone and less for firms in industries that still had significant imports from outside the euro zone. The focus on derivatives adds to existing research, as it is a more explicit indicator of a reduction in the resources devoted to hedging. The reduction in hedging was not in direct proportion to the reduction in FX exposure, implying that euro risk was hedged more intensely than French franc risk in the sample of French firms over the chosen years.     

How Comprehensive is Comprehensive Income? The Value Relevance of Foreign Currency Translation Adjustments

Prior empirical research has been unable to forge an unambiguous link between foreign currency translation adjustments, which are an element of “other items of comprehensive income,” and firm valuation. This study adds to the existing literature by empirically testing the value relevance of foreign currency translation adjustments in an earnings and book value model. Interaction terms, which serve as proxies for the theoretical sources of exchange rate exposure, are included in the estimating equation. The main finding of this study is that foreign currency translation adjustments are significantly value relevant when their parameter estimates are allowed to vary in the cross‐section.     

Translation Exposure Hedging Post SFAS No. 52

Translation exposure hedging is frequently said to have begun after firms adopted SFAS No. 8 and assumed to have ceased–or at least decreased–after adoption of SFAS No. 52 due to different treatments of translation gains (losses). Based on proprietary data, this study presents evidence from a small sample of firms which would be predicted to cease hedging translation exposure, but of which the majority did not.
The study focuses on eighteen firms which exclude at least 50% and up to 100% of the translation gains (losses) from the income statement after adopting SFAS No. 52. Of those eighteen firms, only seven ceased hedging. The other eleven firms not only continued hedging translation exposure, but hedged translation exposure of only those subsidiaries whose translation gains (losses) are now excluded from the income statement.
Characteristics which might explain the different decision are investigated: proportion of assets which are nonmonetary; the proportion of net assets located abroad; the geographic dispersion of subsidiaries; and the estimated effect on the balance sheet and income statement of changing from the temporal method to the current rate method of translation.
Univariate test results indicate that the geographic dispersion of die foreign subsidiaries as well as the proportion of net assets located abroad differ significantly between firms which ceased hedging and those which continued hedging after adopting the standard. Weak evidence of differential effects of the change to the current rate method on individual firm income statements and of different composition of assets between the two groups also was found. Multivariate analysis, using a linear probability model as well as a randomization procedure, provided weak results corroborating the significance of the proportion of net foreign assets to consolidated assets in differentiating between firms which ceased hedging and those which continued.     

Patterns of business creation,survival and growth: Evidence from Africa

We study firm dynamics using a novel database of all formally registered firms in Cote d'Ivoire from 1977 to 1997, which account for about 60% of GDP. First, we examine entry and exit patterns and the role of new and exiting firms versus incumbents in job creation and destruction. We find that while the rate of job creation at new firms is quiet high – at 8% on average – the numbers of jobs added by new firms is small in absolute terms. Next, we examine survival rates and find that the probability of survival increases monotonically with firm size, but that manufacturing and foreign-owned firms face higher likelihoods of exit compared to service oriented and domestically-owned firms. We find that higher GDP growth increases the probability of firm survival, but this is a broad impact with no firm size disproportionately affected. In robustness checks we find that post-1987, size is no longer a significant determinant of firm survival for new entrants, suggesting that the operating environment for firms changed. Finally, we find that trade and fiscal reform episodes raised the probability of firm exit and attenuated the survival disadvantages faced by smaller firms, but exchange rate revaluation and pro-private sector reforms did not significantly lower the likelihood of exit.     

Derivatives Usage in Risk Management by US and German Non-Financial Firms: A Comparative Survey

This paper is a comparative study of the responses to the 1995 Wharton School survey of derivative usage among US non-financial firms and a 1997 companion survey on German non-financial firms. It is not a mere comparison of the results of both studies but a comparative study, drawing a comparable subsample of firms from the US study to match the sample of German firms on both size and industry composition. We find that German firms are more likely to use derivatives than US firms, with 78 percent of German firms using derivatives compared to 57 percent of US firms. Aside from this higher overall usage, the general pattern of usage across industry and size groupings is comparable across the two countries. In both countries, foreign currency derivative usage is most common, followed closely by interest rate derivatives, with commodity derivatives a distant third. In contrast to the similarities, firms in the two countries differ notably on issues such as the primary goal of hedging, their choice of instruments, and the influence of their market view when taking derivative positions. These differences appear to be driven by the greater importance of financial accounting statements in Germany than the US and stricter German corporate policies of control over derivative activities within the firm.     

Model‐free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets

We examine directional predictability in foreign exchange markets using a model‐free statistical evaluation procedure. Based on a sample of foreign exchange spot rates and futures prices in six major currencies, we document strong evidence that the directions of foreign exchange returns are predictable not only by the past history of foreign exchange returns, but also the past history of interest rate differentials, suggesting that the latter can be a useful predictor of the directions of future foreign exchange rates. This evidence becomes stronger when the direction of larger changes is considered. We further document that despite the weak conditional mean dynamics of foreign exchange returns, directional predictability can be explained by strong dependence derived from higher‐order conditional moments such as the volatility, skewness and kurtosis of past foreign exchange returns. Moreover, the conditional mean dynamics of interest rate differentials contributes significantly to directional predictability. We also examine the co‐movements between two foreign exchange rates, particularly the co‐movements of joint large changes. There exists strong evidence that the directions of joint changes are predictable using past foreign exchange returns and interest rate differentials. Furthermore, both individual currency returns and interest rate differentials are also useful in predicting the directions of joint changes. Several sources can explain this directional predictability of joint changes, including the level and volatility of underlying currency returns. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Foreign Exchange Exposure Management Practices of Finnish Industrial Firms

This study employs questionnaire survey and financial accounting data to extend earlier empirical work on the foreign exchange (FX) exposure management practices of Finnish industrial firms. The paper concentrates on: (i) the form that FX corporate hedging policy takes; (ii) the control of FX procedures and trading; and, (iii) our respondents' perceptions about their ability to predict FX rate changes for hedging decisions. Our results indicate that the extent to which firms hedge FX exposure depends on the type of exposure and the form that FX hedging policy takes. Also, a significant number of the firms pursue FX hedging strategies on the expectation of attaining trading profits and this strategy appears to be accommodated within their FX policies. This feature is not explicitly demonstrated in previous studies. Finnish firms hedge a much higher proportion of both transaction and translation exposures compared to economic exposure. We partly attribute this emphasis to the requirements of the Finnish Accounting Act, which came into effect in 1993. The organisational, historical and financial settings of the firms also have significant impacts on exposure management practices. The overall implication of those results is that firms respond to changes in the financial, economic and regulatory environments in which they operate.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

The Use of Forward Contracts for Hedging Currency Risk

This paper derives an optimal rule for hedging currency risk in a general utility framework. Ex ante hedging performance of the forward markets is examined using the optimal hedge ratio derived from the utility model and an optimal rule derived from another model (excess return per unit risk) suggested in the hedging literature. Results of this study indicate a naive (one-to-one) hedge performs similarly to the optimal hedge ratios under either model. An implication of this study is that financial managers of multinational firms should simply follow a one-to-one rule when hedging foreign exchange risk in the forward markets.     

Asymmetric Foreign Currency Exposures and Derivatives Use: Evidence from France

This paper provides evidence on the asymmetric sensitivity of stock returns of French firms to exchange rate risk and the effect of foreign currency (FC) derivative use in alleviating this risk. The results show that FC exposure is frequently asymmetric and differs with respect to the US dollar (USD) and non‐USD currencies. Cross sectional analysis provides evidence that FC derivatives use has a significant effect on reducing FC exposure to appreciations and depreciations of non‐USD currencies and depreciations of the USD, but not to appreciations of the USD.     

Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.