EMU成立后欧盟银行业发展趋势探析

欧盟经济货币联盟(EMU)成立前后,欧盟银行业遭遇到很多阻碍,联盟的紧缩性财政政策、欧元启动等在短期都对欧盟银行业的发展造成负面影响,金融非中介化也恶化了欧盟银行业的经营环境。但是欧盟银行业通过银行并购来调整经营手段,增强单个银行的实力及对现实金融环境的适应力,取得了不俗的业绩。     

Monetary Policy Stress in EMU: What Role for Fundamentals and Missed Forecasts?

This article reexamines the problem of monetary policy stress in the EMU. In addition to estimating the amount of stress in particular countries, we investigate its sources by breaking it down into its “fundamental” parts, covering how it is a result of country-specific macroeconomic divergences and the EMU-wide “non-fundamental” component, with special attention given to the role of missed forecasts. Our results confirm that peripheral countries were exposed to risks emerging from low interest rates while the “core” countries did not suffer from much monetary policy stress. Interestingly, the bulk of it was non-fundamental, i.e., not caused by inflation and output gap differentials between countries. We show that missed forecasts did make an important contribution to this part of the stress and were mainly responsible for pushing the interest rate below its rule-consistent level.