金融发展对城市地价的影响效应分析

研究目的:构建城市地价均衡模型,从理论和实证层面研究金融发展对城市商业地价和住宅地价的影响作用,为国家地价调控政策的制定提供理论依据。研究方法:岭回归分析。研究结果:人均贷款规模对城市商业和住宅地价具有显著的正向影响且强度基本相同,而人均存款规模只对住宅地价产生影响,但对地价变动的贡献小于贷款规模;金融相关比率对城市地价的影响效应尚不显著;工资水平对地价的影响强度要明显大于贷款规模。研究结论:当前阶段,居民收入水平的增加是地价上涨的主要因素,但金融发展规模特别是贷款规模对城市地价具有显著的影响,因此在金融结构尚未对地价产生明显影响之时,控制货币供应对稳定地价具有重要意义。     

Property price effects of a national wildlife refuge: Great Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in Massachusetts

The amenity value of proximity to a National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in central Middlesex County, Massachusetts is estimated and compared to the values of proximity to five other open space types, including agricultural land, cemeteries, conservation land, golf courses, and sport/recreation parks. A hedonic model is used to explore the relationships among residential property values and proximity to these distinct types of open space. Open space characteristics in the empirical model include measures of continuous distance from each property to the nearest open space of each type and an index describing the diversity of open space types within neighborhoods of 100 and 1000 meters around a home. Results reveal that a property located 100 meters closer to the NWR than a neighboring property has a price premium of $984. Further, proximity to the NWR is valued more than proximity to agricultural land, cemeteries, and conservation land. No significant differences are found among the values of proximity to the NWR, golf courses, and sport/recreation parks.     

A country scale analysis revealed effective forest policy affecting forest cover changes in Cambodia

Considerable proportions of the remaining global forest areas are currently harboured in tropical countries. Reducing deforestation in this region is important to help mitigate climate change. Effective forest conservation approach is needed to reduce deforestation and degradation in these countries. Here, we investigated the forest conservation effect of community forests and protected areas using country scale data in Cambodia. In addition to these two forest conservation approaches, we also evaluated the effectiveness of protected forests, which are similar to protected areas but managed by different authorities. We compared deforestation between 2006 and 2016 in areas under the three forest conservation approaches and a non-conserved area by applying the inverse probability of treatment weighting with the propensity score minimizing confounding effects. The results showed that community forest, protected areas, and protected forest significantly decreased deforestation compared with non-conserved forests. Out of the three forest conservation approaches, protected forest was the most effective and community forest was the least effective. We conclude that all of the policies we evaluated are effective for forest conservation but the effectiveness varies depending on the approach. Our findings also suggest that the authority managing the given approach plays an important part in its effectiveness.     

The impact of temporary uses on property prices: the example of food trucks

Food trucks represent a temporary use of vacant or underutilised land. They have been assumed to increase the livability, vibrancy and attractiveness of a neighbourhood. However, no previous study has investigated whether this effect is reflected in property prices within the surrounding neighbourhood. We investigate the impact of a food truck pod on the values of single-family homes nearby. Using a quasi-experimental design, transaction data from Portland, Oregon and a difference-in-difference specification of a spatial regression model, we find that food trucks actually represent a negative externality, and that proximity of a home to food trucks is penalised by homebuyers. The closer a home is to the food trucks, the lower is the sales price. Explanations for this effect include increased parking shortages and trash issues in a neighbourhood due to food truck visitors.     

基于空间扩散方程的天水市城镇土地基准地价平衡研究

研究目的：通过天水市城镇土地基准地价平衡研究,解决同一区域内不同城镇基准地价客观反映城镇之间的经济差异和地价水平的问题。研究方法：多维城镇土地分等指标体系,非均质地价空间扩散方程。研究结果：天水市商业地价与城镇之间质量及距中心城镇距离成负相关性,商业基准地价平衡前后差异较大,但平衡后地价符合实际情况。研究结论：从城市空间结构来看,位于“强场强区”内的城镇,其地价主要受中心城镇扩散的影响,而位于“弱场强区”内的城镇,其地价是中心城镇扩散和周围城镇共同作用的结果;影响平衡前后地价变动的主要因素为城镇质量（综合分值）和距中心城镇距离,且与城镇本身的区位交通条件关联较大。     

城镇住宅用地基准地价的地质灾害影响及修正系数研究 ——以兰州市为例

研究目的:研究地质灾害对城镇住宅地价的影响及城镇住宅基准地价的地质灾害因素修正系数编制。研究方法:探索性空间数据分析、网格地价模型和地理加权回归模型。研究结果:基于兰州市1621个住宅地价调查样点数据的分析显示,地质灾害隐患可导致土地价值的降低,但作用程度在不同土地级别、不同空间位置存在差异,地质灾害对地价产生负作用的极值易出现在各类洪道、沟坡地带;运用兰州市公开出让住宅用地数据进行验算,将网格地价模型和GWR模型法得出的修正系数应用于兰州市基准地价修正法评估,验算结果基本符合兰州市地价实际情况,网格地价模型的验算结果较GWR模型更为平稳。研究结论:地质灾害因素修正系数的空间量化,有助于提高地价评估的准确和客观性;网格地价模型法较GWR模型法更适合当前基准地价修正系数编制。     

Drug trafficking,cattle ranching and Land use and Land cover change in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve

Drug trafficking organizations are driving deforestation in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve. Drug traffickers deforest the protected area in order to illegally ranch cattle, which serves as a mechanism of money laundering, drug smuggling, and territory control. Journalists and ethnographers have analyzed “narco-cattle ranching” activities in the reserve and resulting “narco-deforestation,” yet land use change scientists have yet to quantify the contribution of illegal cattle ranching to forest loss. This article uses remote sensing and GIS analysis to distinguish the relative contribution of cattle ranching, farming, and land speculation to reserve deforestation and other forms of land use and land cover change. We also use ethnographic methods to provide evidentiary links between illegal cattle ranching and drug trafficking activities that suggest a large part, but not all, of illegal cattle ranching is narco-capitalized. Our research finds that illegal cattle ranching is responsible for the majority of reserve deforestation, ranging from 59 to 87% of photographs on deforested lands in three sampled areas. We also found illegal cattle ranching activities are the highest in the reserve’s western national parks, which should be strictly protected from land use change. Contrary to popular debate, these findings suggest drug traffickers in the context of the US-led War on Drugs are to blame for forest loss, not subsistence farmers illegally living in the reserve.     

Forest land consolidation and its effect on climate

Land use changes and forests both play an important role in combating climate change. The climate effects of forest land consolidation have, however, not been studied in detail. As such, this study identifies a number of possible climate effects of forest land consolidation. To specify these, the increased carbon storage in the Pahkakoski land consolidation project (Finland) due to increased forest growth is valued through substitution costs. The results show that the value of the increased carbon storage in the project area is approximately 750 000 euros, or €153/ha. This emanates from the increased growth due to remedial drainage and from the increased forested area. The result is, however, sensitive to changes in the shadow price of carbon. Likewise, the study recognises a need for studies concerning the total climate effect of measures, such as remedial drainage that may also release carbon from the ground. While the overall effects of forest land consolidation are difficult to estimate with current knowledge, this article highlights the potential of land consolidation to combat climate change.     

河北粮食生产可持续发展策略研究

河北粮食生产主要受到社会重大变革、政策调整、农业生产条件、农资投入、科技进步、价格变动等因素的综合影响,单产比播种面积对总产的影响更大。分析了河北省粮食生产发展的制约因素:耕地减少、水资源短缺和成本、效益限制。分析粮食增产潜力,文章认为应以农用水资源为主的农业生产条件合理确定河北省粮食生产品种结构与布局以及粮食产量目标。提出应在基本粮田保护区设立、中低产田、水利建设与节水、优良品种及农业科技等方面着力加强。同时在耕地流转、政府投入、种粮补贴等方面也应配套政策措施。     

Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation

The paper investigates geo‐physical, agro‐ecological, and socio‐economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio‐economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced‐form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods. Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land‐intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour‐ and capital‐intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.     

Assessment of relation of land use characteristics with vector-borne diseases in tropical areas

Land use and land cover changes play an important role in the occurrence of vector-borne diseases. It is highly essential to identify the prominent changes responsible for its occurrence so that suitable measures can be adopted. An attempt was made to identify the prominent land use and land cover changes responsible for the spread of chikungunya, malaria, and dengue fever in the State of Kerala, India, using hierarchical cluster analysis and multiple regression analysis. Large extent of water bodies, low land and agricultural land played a significant role on the incidence of chikungunya and malaria. High population density, built-up area and agricultural area favoured dengue fever. Vector-borne diseases were found to be the lowest in places where there is no low land and with higher forest area. Inappropriate disposal of wastes generated in the built-up area might be the reason for the spread of dengue fever. Freshwater in drains of these areas is polluted and form breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Hence much attention is to be paid to provide appropriate treatment and disposal of wastes generated in the built-up area of the State In an evolving urban policy, priority is to be given to the installation of safe treatment and disposal facility of wastes especially, sewage, sullage, and solid waste. The protection of forest land also plays an important role. Economic policy instruments such as Payment for Environment Services (PES) schemes, may constitute a useful tool to encourage an improved land use management through appropriate price signals, such as, for instance, for the preservation of forested areas especially in proximity of highly populated urban environments.     

集体建设用地入市是否影响城乡统一建设用地市场？ ——基于浙江德清微观土地交易数据实证研究

研究目的:基于2013—2019年浙江德清集体和国有工业用地微观土地交易数据,实证分析集体建设用地入市对城乡建设用地市场的影响效应和作用机制.研究方法:微观计量经济方法.研究结果:(1)集体工业用地价格和利用效益明显较国有工业用地要低;(2)集体建设用地入市对国有工业用地价格具有正向效应,将推动周边国有工业用地价格上涨9.5%;(3)集体建设用地入市试点改革降低了城乡建设用地价格差距,空间集聚有助于提升集体工业用地入市价格.研究结论:政府应深入推进集体建设用地同权同价入市,促进城乡建设用地市场协调发展.     

Comparison of land use change in payments for environmental services and National Biological Corridor Programs

Costa Rica established the National Biological Corridor Program in 2006. Under the National Biological Corridor Program, the long-running Payment for Environmental Services Program was newly prioritized into biological corridors throughout the country. The National Biological Corridor Program caused a nationwide spatial shift in placement of payments for environmental services throughout Costa Rica. We classified ASTER 15-m resolution imagery in a central Costa Rica corridor connecting the eastern and western protected areas networks to analyze the change in forests during the National Biological Corridor Program with its targeted payments for environmental services effort. We used object-based classification methods, and compared land cover changes over an initial four-year period of corridor policy enactment. We calculated the changes within PES properties and outside of PES regions, and we also calculated forest patch metrics during the same time period. Results indicate a decline in forest cover over the study period, along with an increase in urban and pasture land covers, with higher change and loss of forest centered inside of the biological corridor, near the construction area for the new San Carlos highway, and within eastern pasture areas. We also saw a higher percentage of forest loss inside of the biological corridor area as compared to areas outside of the biological corridor. Forest loss was drastically less within current and historic PES properties, as compared to the overall study region. Across the entire study region, patch metrics show a decrease in the number of patches and a slight decrease in average patch size. These results suggest that current and past designation of PES prevents forest loss within PES properties while the current designation of priority conservation status via the National Biological Corridor Program is not increasing connectivity and forest conservation. This is shown by increased land use change and a decrease in forest associated with biological corridor designation. These results are antithetical to the goals of the National Biological Corridor Program.     

Determinants of Land Use in Amazônia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analysis

Wetter areas of the Amazon basin exhibit lower rates of agricultural conversion. Previous analyses, using relatively aggregate data on land cover, have been unable to determine the extent to which this reflects limited access versus unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. This article uses census-tract level data for the Brazilian Amazon to relate forest conversion and pasture productivity to precipitation, soil quality, infrastructure and market access, proximity to past conversion, and protection status. The probability that land is used for agriculture or intensively stocked with cattle declines markedly with increasing rainfall, other things equal.     

The recreational services value of the nearby periurban forest versus the regional forest environment

Most previous valuation studies of forest recreational services using hedonic methods have focused on the direct proximity of housing to nearby forests while treating recreational services as homogeneous. However, households in urban and periurban areas may prefer diverse forest areas in their neighborhoods. The main objective of this study is to estimate and compare the impacts of proximity to forest recreational services based on the nearby forest and the regional forest environment, which includes spatially heterogeneous recreational quality. The regional forest environment is computed based on forest recreational services with respect to the travel time to housing. The empirical results show that differences exist between the forest valuations and their recreational services depending on which forest environment is considered. The size of the nearby forest is the only characteristic with a positive and significant impact on housing prices. Conversely, the regional forest environment positively influences housing prices based on certain parameters, such as large forest size, absence of protected areas and the existence of hiking and biking paths, which imply public access and maintenance.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Drivers of land change: Human-environment interactions and the Atlantic forest transition in the Paraíba Valley,Brazil

Human societies constantly interact with the environment through mutual feedbacks and adaptations. The aim of this research was to analyze human and environmental dimensions so as to understand how the dynamic processes of land use and land cover change are contributing to the increase of forest cover observed between 1985 and 2011 in the Paraíba Valley, Brazil. The forestry sector, based on eucalyptus plantations, is given particular attention due to its role in these change processes. Multi-layer perception neural network (MPNN) models were adopted to evaluate the influence of independent variables in the process of the forest transition. Based on the model's results, we conclude that the process is conditioned by a set of biophysical and socioeconomic variables that operate during different historical periods and in different landscape settings. The proximity of Atlantic forest remnants was influential in the forest transition for the three periods analyzed: 1985–1995, 1995–2005, and 2005–2011. In the first period of change (1985–1995), topography was most influential. Between the periods of 1995–2005 and 2005–2011, the proximity to eucalyptus plantations was an important factor, indicating a high probability of native forest recovery occurring in the vicinity of these monocultural areas. The forest transition tends to occur in areas less suitable for agriculture at the outset, but as these areas are replaced by forest cover, socioeconomic drivers such as farm credit and economic development play important roles in forest recovery.     

森林碳汇与经济增长的互动关系

基于1998—2018年的林业数据,采用边际碳减排成本作为森林碳汇价格的代理变量,构建森林碳汇与经济增长的面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),从经济价值角度探析森林碳汇与经济增长的长期互动关系。结果表明:经济增长通过加大对森林自然资本的投资、改变林产品消费结构和产业结构、转变林业发展方式三条路径促进森林碳汇发展;但是,由于中国以生态建设为主的森林经营理念和森林碳汇市场功能不完全,以至于森林碳汇"抑制"经济增长。鉴于经济增长推动森林碳汇发展而森林碳汇在短时间内"抑制"经济增长,建议加快健全森林碳汇交易平台、完善森林碳汇定价机制、合理界定森林碳汇产权、加强森林管理和提高森林质量,促进森林碳汇与经济增长融合发展。     

南方集体林区林地产权、地理特征与农户林地投入行为

基于现有研究的缺陷和林农投资水平低的现实问题,构建"林权改革、地理特征-农户经济行为-林地投入"的理论分析结构,并以南方集体林区3省1248个农户样本为例,采用Double-Hurdle回归模型从微观层面检验林地产权、地理特征对农户林地资金投入和劳动力投入的影响。研究表明:安全、稳定的林地产权能够促进农户对林地的资金与劳动力投入,优越的地理条件(灌溉、地形)能够促进农户对林地的资金与劳动力投入,不便利的交通条件抑制农户对林地的投入。因此,建议重视保障林业经营者林地权利的安全性与稳定性,提高确权发证水平;加强集体林区林业基础设施建设,完善林业市场体制机制。     

基于地价动态监测体系的基准地价更新研究--以南京市为例

在评述国内外基准地价更新研究的基础上,系统全面地分析了国内目前基准地价更新工作中存在的问题,提出通过监测点地价测算地价指数,以更新基准地价的新思路.以南京市为案例,利用原土地定级资料、基准地价资料、地价监测点体系信息和土地市场资料,结合国家城镇估价规程,通过测算监测点的地价求取地价指数,进行基准地价更新,取得了良好的效果.