区块链技术对企业战略联盟稳定性的影响

目前我国企业战略联盟凝聚力较差，战略联盟中的企业互不信任。探讨区块链技术在企业战略联盟中的潜力。首先概述了区块链的概念和特征，再将其概念化为一种颠覆性的创新形式。然后对文献进行结构性审阅，确定学者和专家讨论的关键主题和题目。在呈现数据分析结果之前，描述了以区块链技术为基础的战略合作的战略联盟模型，将为研究和开发区块链知识提供了有效建议。     

Expertise and Its Relation to Audit Decision Quality*

Abstract. This research study examines the effect of expertise on the quality of audit decision making in an audit planning context. Unlike previous studies, expertise is measured in terms of domain-specific knowledge. The quality of audit decision making is evaluated with three measures: consistency with professional standards, consistency with the firm's standards, and consensus among auditors. In general, findings indicate that the quality of audit decision making, as defined in this study, is better among experts than among novices. More specifically, it appears that both experts and novices possess some minimum level of knowledge to be consistent with professional standards. Second, experts are more consistent with firms' standards for both reliance and substantive decisions, indicating that expert auditors may have finer knowledge than novices. Finally, the experts' consensus level is higher than the novices' consensus level for standard auditing situations although for less standard situations, the consensus level is lower for experts.     

财务专家型独立董事能有效抑制盈余管理吗？——来自深市2003—2011年的经验证据

文章以深市2003—2011年的上市公司作为样本,研究财务专家型独立董事的监督效力,实证检验财务专家型独立董事对盈余管理的抑制作用。研究结果袁明：独立董事中财务专家比例越高,越能够有效抑制上市公司盈余管理行为,其中高级会计师相对于注册会计师而言,能够更显著地发挥监督作用;财务专家型独立董事工作地点与上市公司地点一致性,减弱了其对盈余管理的监督效力;财务专家型独立董事在董事会中所占的比例越大．越能够保持相应的独立性,监督上市公司向外界报告更为真实的财务信息;在合理的激励下,津贴越高,财务专家型独立董事越有可能为了维护良好的声誉而更好地发挥监督作用：     

中国未来粮食供求趋势预测

对我国未来40-50年的粮食供求趋势预测表明，在我国的人口增长期（即大多数专家所认为的2030年人口峰值之前的时间里），我国粮食供需形势将会偏紧，要实现我国粮食的全部自给有较大的难度，但在此之后，随着我国人口的减少和粮食单产的提高，我国粮食供需将会趋于平衡。     

Mind the Gap: Why Do Experts Have Differences of Opinion Regarding the Sufficiency of Audit Evidence Supporting Complex Fair Value Measurements?

Reported deficiencies continue to persist in audits of fair value measurements and other complex accounting estimates (hereafter, “FVMs”), despite improvements in auditor performance observed by regulators. The persistence of reported deficiencies in audits of FVMs suggests that factors underlying this trend may be more complicated and multidimensional than previously suggested by regulators and academic research, which has focused largely on auditors' unsatisfactory performance as the principal source of reported deficiencies. Drawing from the judgment and decision‐making expertise literature, we gather field‐based data from audit experts to identify additional factors that are likely to be contributing to differences of opinion between audit and inspection experts and the persistence of reported deficiencies in audits of FVMs. We find evidence that audit experts interpret standards and evaluate audit evidence differently than inspectors, and thus perceive there to be a gap between what auditors and inspectors regard as sufficient appropriate audit evidence to support audits of FVMs (hereafter, “FVM gap”). Moreover, results highlight several areas in audits of FVMs where differences of opinion exist between auditor and inspector experts regarding what constitutes a reported deficiency. Within the contexts we examine, our results identify additional factors, beyond deficient auditor performance, that may contribute to the FVM gap. We also report audit partners' recommendations for ways to reduce the FVM gap and suggest avenues for future research. Gaining a more complete understanding of sources contributing to reported deficiencies will help regulators, standard setters, audit firms, and academics to identify ways to reduce the FVM gap and reported deficiencies in audits of FVMs.     

全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.     

南水北调西线工程若干问题述评

南水北调西线工程规划于2010年开工,然而,论证尚不充分。相关领域的许多专家,特别是长期在该区域工作生活的四川学者,从地质、生态、水利、经济、社会、宗教、替代方案、科学决策机制等方面进行了广泛探讨,汇集为《南水北调西线工程备忘录》,其中尤其对是否存在“安全岛”和“避让”可能、调水量是否可靠、投资预算和运作方式、超乎寻常的移民难度和文物保护难度、西线调水与国家能源战略和生态安全、全局利益和替代方案、公平性和科学决策机制等问题,提出了令人震撼的质疑和结论,专家们还提出应从源头治理生态、恢复若尔盖湿地功能、调整工业布局、加大中线调水(重庆开县小江调水方案)、长江黄河水电互济等多方面来缓解北方缺水,并认为,西线工程不仅仅是技术工程,而且是社会工程,科学决策应包括广泛征求各界专家和老百姓意见。本文的作者作为《南水北调西线工程备忘录》编者之一,就该书对南水北调西线工程涉及的这些重大问题进行综述和探讨,希望西线工程论证和决策能够更加科学,尽可能避免和降低风险。     

新财税政策下的职工基本养老保险最优缴费率测算研究

企业职工基本养老保险缴费率作为养老保险制度的关键性要素,受到专家学者的普遍关注,企业缴费率高、缴费压力大已成为制约企业发展的重要因素。本文综合运用灰色关联、因子分析与回归、动态调整和模拟预测的方法,构建企业基本养老保险缴费率适度水平的因子测算模型,以上海市2008—2019年的数据作为样本进行测算与预测。结果显示:缴费率的适度水平处于19%～23%;增加国有资产划转10%补充社保基金以及中央调剂金制度等参数后,模拟预测2018—2025年的缴费率适度水平在14.8%～18.6%之间,说明企业职工基本养老保险的缴费率有进一步下降的空间。     

基于神经网络的专家预测方法研究

针对复杂预测问题的需求,基于神经网络的思想对专家预测方法进行了探讨。首先,在神经元模型的基础上提出了专家预测模型。然后,根据专家预测模型的需要对专家给出的模糊语言判断信息的合成进行了研究,并给出了具体的量化方法。最后,为提高预测方法的精度,提出了一种专家权值的调整方法;算例表明,该方法具有简单实用的特点。     

It is Time for National Action to Reach the Lisbon Goals

Summary During the second half of 2004, the Netherlands held the Presidency of the European Union. One of the conferences during the Presidency was titled ‘More people at work: Policies to activate Europe’s labour potential’. It was organised on October 25 and 26, 2004 at the Beurs van Berlage in Amsterdam. The conference focused on four particular areas: the reconciliation of work and family life, activating social security systems, mobility and training. As a starting point for the discussions during the conference, academics who are experts in the specific policy areas were asked to write a paper. In this special edition of ‘De economist’ you will find a presentation of three of their papers. In my contribution I will explain why I have put the focus of this conference on increasing labour supply and more in particular why these four themes have been chosen as relevant for Member States and the Union. As time has not stopped after the Netherlands’ Presidency I will also take this opportunity to show that the conclusions of the conference have become an integrated part of the revitalised Lisbon strategy.     

品牌创建和全面创新关系探讨

根据品牌专家的观点，文章提出了这样一个问题：品牌创建与创新可以无关吗？为了回答这个问题，文章首先回顾了创新概念的内涵和它的演变，指出无论是创新研究专家还是非创新专家，在提到创新时，关注的焦点仍然是技术创新。文章进一步分析了创新管理的最新理论一全面创新管理的几个假设，发现这些假设值得推敲，并详细分析了品牌专家对创新采取排斥和怀疑的深层次原因。最后，笔者提出，如果从全面创新角度来理解创新，而不仅仅指技术创新，那么创新对品牌创建是完全必要的。但同时指出，应把品牌本身分为品牌内核和外围，外围要持续创新，而内核则相对稳定和不变，从而使创新专家和品牌专家的观点得以协调。     

低迷股市下的车企上市躁动

最近，股市偏冷，车企上市却很热。国内汽车集团“明知山有虎、偏向虎山行”，上市热情“高烧不退”，由此掀起了国内汽车行业的一场集体躁动。虽然“股市有风险，入市须谨慎”，但对于汽车企业来说，正争先恐后地驶向这个滚滚财源的大本营。     

科技专家评审质量评价模型实证研究

针对科技主管部门面临的科技专家评审质量不高、监管机制缺失等问题,通过信息化手段实现专家管理的高效化、智能化、规范化.研究确立以科技专家基本素质、工作态度、专业程度及指导水平4个维度为主体框架的评审质量评价指标体系,开展基于神经网络算法的专家评审质量评价模型的构建.通过对比经验评价数据与神经网络评价预测值间的误差,验证基于神经网络算法的专家评审质量评价模型的高精准性,为客观、科学、智能、规范评价科技专家评审质量提供一种可行路径.     

房地产业融资外资化对我国金融政策的影响

房地产业是国民经济中的重要行业,但融资问题却成为房地产业发展的“瓶颈”。与此同时,外资正大量涌入我国房地产市场。央行121号文件更是在法律上为外资等多种融资方式开了绿灯。有金融专家认为:外资会成为房地产融资新趋势。本论文探讨了房地产业外资流入对我国货币政策的影响,以及我国在外资冲击下的货币政策选择。     

Education and the ability to export manufactures: The relevance to South Africa of the Wood model

According to Wood there is a strong causal relation between education of the population and exports of manufactures. Also, a country that is rich in natural resources will tend to have low manufactured exports, which will be exacerbated by low investment in education. Wood's model is applied to South Africa. Increasing the education of the population will be crucial for expanding higher‐value‐added manufactured exports, increasing per capita incomes and reducing earnings inequality in South Africa.     

The limits to discretionary fiscal stabilization policy

The use of discretionary fiscal policy as a counter-cyclicaltool has declined in popularity over the last 30 years. Thispaper examines the extent to which this decline is justifiedin terms of developments in macroeconomic theory over this period.Both a small calibrated model and a larger econometric modelsuggest that the intertemporal consumer will smooth away mostof the impact of temporary tax changes, even when additionaldiscounting and credit constraints are allowed for. However,this analysis suggests a more powerful role for other formsof fiscal policy, such as government objections to the use ofdiscretionary fiscal stabilization policy, and makes a tentativesuggestion as to how these might be overcome.     

Expertise Rents from Insider Trading for Financial Experts on Audit Committees

We document the existence of expertise rents by finding that financial experts on audit committees obtain higher abnormal returns from insider purchases than do non‐financial experts on audit committees. We further investigate whether information processing skills work alone or jointly with an information advantage to generate expertise rents. While financial experts on audit committees outperform financial experts on other committees, financial experts on compensation, executive, nominating, and governance committees do not outperform non‐financial experts on these committees. These findings suggest that expertise rents are domain‐specific and can be obtained only when directors have both access to private information and information processing skills. In additional testing, we find that expertise rents for financial experts on audit committees are primarily driven by non‐accounting financial experts, whose finance or supervisory experience could make them better than accounting financial experts in understanding market conditions and assessing firm risk.     

Are the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge the same? Evidence from Japan

The recent prolonged period of low economic growth and low interest rates in Japan demands that Japanese households invest in risky assets to accumulate sufficient retirement savings. In so doing, they acquire financial knowledge on these risky assets, typically from financial experts or salespersons in financial institutions. However, they may not necessarily be content with their current sources of financial knowledge because depending on their stage in the life cycle, they require different types of financial knowledge, usually from a variety of sources. Unfortunately, because of limitations in the data available, few studies have investigated whether the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge are the same. To address this research gap, this paper uses a Japanese household survey from 2010 to 2017, which provides unique information on the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge, and obtains two interesting results. First, a household’s actual sources of financial knowledge typically differ from its intended sources. More specifically, 33 % of households choosing financial institutions and experts and 52 % of households choosing financial institutions as their actual sources have a different intended source. Second, the discrepancy between actual and intended sources appears to relate to household demographic characteristics. Among those households choosing financial institutions and experts as their actual source of financial knowledge, 14 % choosing financial institutions as their intended source tend to have a lower level of financial knowledge and educational attainment. These results suggest that they have some difficulty understanding the advice of financial advisers. Among households choosing financial institutions as their actual source of financial knowledge, 26 % choosing financial institutions and experts as their intended source tend to have a larger amount of financial assets, better financial knowledge, and a preference for investing in risky assets; however, they also tend to be younger. This suggests they might want to obtain financial knowledge from financial experts to purchase risky financial assets as they age. While the study does not provide any causal evidence, the results suggest that understanding the reasons for any discrepancy in the actual and intended sources of financial knowledge may help financial institutions provide better services to these customers.     

解读十八届三中全会

中共十八届二中全会于11月9～12日召开，这次全会被公认为“歼启了中闷改革开放历史新时期”。全会通过的《公报》明确了全面深化改革的总目标、总任务。三中全会闭幕后，经济学家及各行各业专家从不同角度解读了这次大会的精神。     

“内部人控制”有效治理途径的博弈分析

内部控制作为公司治理设计的重要措施，建立完善的内部控制系统必将促进企业的发展。怎样维护企业各参与者的利益，有效防治以经理人为代表的“内部人”控制问题，将成为完善公司治理结构设计的焦点。文章基于博弈论方法推导出联合产权制度的公司治理模式，是公司有效治理路径依赖条件下的最优选择之一。