The Impact of Government Intervention on Corporate Investment Allocations and Efficiency: Evidence from China

We examine whether government intervention plays an important role in determining corporate investment allocations and efficiency in China. We find the government tends to intervene to promote corporate investment in fixed assets, equity in other state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), and natural resources including oil, natural gas, and mines, but reduces research and development (R&D) investment. However, the effects of government intervention on these investment allocations are primarily found in local SOEs rather than in central SOEs or in private enterprise. Government intervention also induces a crowding‐out effect in natural resource investments of private firms, suggesting that government intervention distorts investment allocations and reduces investment efficiency.     

Valuation of a spark spread: an LM6000 power plant

This paper analyzes a power plant powered by two General Electric LM6000 gas turbines combined with a steam generator that allows combined cycle operations. We consider four distinct operating modes for the plant. Such a plant can be characterized as a real option on a spark spread: optimally converting natural gas to electricity. We use a Margrabe approach by using the market heat rate (the ratio of the electricity price to the natural gas price) as our underlying stochastic variable. We estimate a stochastic model for market heat rates that incorporates time of day, day of week, month, and the incidence or otherwise of a spike in heat rates. We use the model and its residuals in a bootstrap process simulating future market heat rates, and use a least-squares Monte Carlo approach to determine the optimal operating policy. We find that the annual average market heat rate is a good explanatory variable for the time integral of the plant operating margin, denominated in the natural gas numeraire. This allows us to express plant values in terms of the numeraire and convert to dollars by multiplying this by the natural gas forward curve and a forward curve of riskless discount rates. We also provide information about the optimal operating modes selected, the number of transitions between modes and how they relate to transition costs and the average heat rate for the year.     

The Relationship Between Energy Commodity Prices and Electricity and Market Index Performances: Evidence from an Emerging Market

We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration of financial markets in Turkey compared to developed markets. Natural gas price leads electricity index in the pre-2008 period. Its significance is reduced following the decline in natural gas usage in electricity production. This suggests that commodity dependence may be driving the link between commodity and asset prices in related sectors.     

Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets

This paper examines the impact of currency exchange rates on the carbon market. We scrutinize this effect through the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which primarily uses two substitutable fossil energy inputs for the generation of electricity: coal and natural gas. The European coal market is directly driven by global coal markets that are denominated in USD, whereas, natural gas is mainly imported from Russia and is denominated in Euros. The impulse response functions of a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model demonstrate that a shock in the Euro/USD exchange rate can be transmitted through the channel of energy substitution between coal and natural gas, and influence on the carbon credit market.     

The environmental disclosures of the electricity generation industry: a global perspective

The electricity generation industry has been under close regulatory and public scrutiny for decades for the significant impacts its activities have on the environment. The industry is responsible for a large proportion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which has intensified public and regulatory scrutiny of late. Therefore, electricity generation firms face immense pressure to show environmental responsibility. Firms respond with environmental disclosures in their annual reports, in stand-alone-reports, and on websites. In this study, we use comprehensive disclosure indices to measure the quality (or comprehensiveness) of the CO₂ emissions related disclosure and the overall environmental disclosure of 205 electricity generation firms in 35 countries. We find that firms in countries with a high commitment towards the environment and a carbon emissions trading scheme (measures of social concern for environmental protection and emissions), are likely to disclose more comprehensive environmental information. In addition, we find that firm size, age of the assets, listing status, and media exposure influence disclosure. Environmental performance, measured by CO₂ emissions, is not significantly related to environmental disclosure among our sample firms. The theoretical implication of these findings is that social beliefs (that are different in different countries) prompt a legitimating disclosure response from firms that is not significantly affected by their performance against that social belief.     

Do Private Firms Invest Differently than Public Firms? Taking Cues from the Natural Gas Industry

We study how listing status affects investment behavior. Theory offers competing hypotheses on how listing‐related frictions affect investment decisions. We use detailed data on 74,670 individual projects in the U.S. natural gas industry to show that private firms respond less than public firms to changes in investment opportunities. Private firms adjust drilling activity for low capital‐intensity investments. However, they do not increase drilling in response to new capital‐intensive growth opportunities. Instead, they sell these projects to public firms. Our evidence suggests that differences in access to external capital are important in explaining the investment behavior of public and private firms.     

Infrastructure Privatization and Regulation: Promises and Perils

Infrastructure is crucial for generating growth, alleviatingpoverty, and increasing international competitiveness. For muchof the twentieth century and in most countries, the networkutilities that delivered infrastructure services—suchas electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, railroads,and water supply—were vertically and horizontally integratedstate monopolies. But this approach often resulted in extremelyweak services, especially in developing and transition economiesand especially for poor people. Common problems included lowproductivity, high costs, bad quality, insufficient revenue,and shortfalls in investment. Over the past two decades manycountries have implemented far-reaching institutional reforms—restructuring,privatizing, and establishing new approaches to regulation.This article identifies the challenges involved in this massivepolicy redirection within the historical, economic, and institutionalcontext of developing and transition economies. It also reviewsthe outcomes of these policy changes, including their distributionalconsequences—especially for poor households and otherdisadvantaged groups. Drawing on a range of international experiencesand empirical studies, it recommends directions for future reformsand research to improve infrastructure performance.      

Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves

In this paper we develop a new model for the dynamics of forward curves of commodities exhibiting seasonalities, such as natural gas, electricity or agricultural commodities. In the existing literature on the subject, the first state variable in multi-factor models is the commodity price, which combines seasonal and stochastic features and may be unobservable. We propose to use instead the average forward price, which is devoid of seasonality and conveys a more robust representation of the current forward curve level. The second factor in the model is a quantity analogous to the stochastic convenience yield, which accounts for the random changes in the forward curve shape. The well-known cost-of-carry relationship is significantly improved by introducing a deterministic seasonal premium within the convenience yield. We develop model estimation procedures and apply them to a number of energy markets.     

Emission Allowance as a Derivative on Commodity-Spread

We provide a valuation formula for emission allowance. Assuming that the value of emission allowance on the last day of a trading phase is equal to a spread of commodity prices (e.g. electricity and natural gas) when the spread is positive and less than the penalty, we show that the emission allowance price is equal to the value of a portfolio of European call options on the spread of the commodities. Using the formula, we obtain a hedging strategy for emission allowance trading. We also empirically analyze option value embedded in emission allowance, and find by numerical analysis that the option value is relatively large.     

Dynamic copula models for the spark spread

We propose a non-symmetric copula to model the evolution of electricity and gas prices by a bivariate non-Gaussian autoregressive process. We identify the marginal dynamics as driven by normal inverse Gaussian processes, estimating them from a series of observed UK electricity and gas spot data. We estimate the copula by modeling the difference between the empirical copula and the independent copula. We then simulate the joint process and price options written on the spark spread. We find that option prices are significantly influenced by the copula and the marginal distributions, along with the seasonality of the underlying prices.     

Gas transportation, geopolitics and future market structure

Recent studies have shown the important role of geography, politics and technology for the evolution of markets for natural gas. Gas market differs from other markets due to high share of transport and infrastructure costs. Since investment is location specific, it involves also geopolitical aspects as a consequence. Future market structure becomes path dependent on the investment decisions, particularly in gas infrastructure (pipelines and LNG). Another important aspect that shapes future gas market is heterogeneity in reserve-production ratios across gas producing countries that will eventually lead to the emergence of narrow oligopoly formed by countries with the largest reserves: Russia, Iran and Qatar. The goal of this paper is to analyse a long run gas game. There exist several time scales, and by backward induction we arrive at the conclusion that some time during the 21st century (we name it long run) there will be an oligopoly consisting of only three major gas reserve holders: Russia (26%), Iran (15%) and Qatar (14%). They will face the demand from three major gas importers: EU, USA and Core Asia. While the development paths and market structures are highly uncertain in the middle run (when temporal competition with rivals having 3% or less of gas reserves is feasible), the cloud of uncertainty shrinks in the long run. But investment strategies of major players in the middle run will determine the topology of gas infrastructure in the long run. All the players have a vector of strategic choices where geography, politics and technology set their limitations. Putting it in a simple formal framework, we can say that players choose: intensity of exploitation and shares of investment in transport infrastructure (LNG and location-specific pipelines). Geographical analysis of gas fields of Russia shows that it has moderate flexibility, but still can control the future share of LNG and pipeline flows to Europe and Asia. Pipelines to EU are slightly preferred to pipelines to Asia but political aspects may play crucial role. Qatar is likely to invest only in LNG, but has the flexibility in the speed of its field exploitation (it may be lower that for Russia). Iran has the highest technological and geographical freedom in choices. Future market structures for gas can vary from oligopolistic to monopolistic–monopsonistic relationship, with possibly different prices.     

Corporate investment and earnings surprises

ABSTRACT

We find that firm-level investment is negatively related to the likelihood of meeting or beating analysts’ short-term EPS forecasts. In a 35-year panel dataset of US based companies, we find evidence that suggests firms with the best growth opportunities, opaque firms, and firms with higher than usual bonus compensation, are the ones to alter investment in order to beat benchmarks. Utilizing the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley as a natural experiment we find that firms trade off accruals-based earnings management in lieu of investment cuts. Results are robust to a number of covariates, and endogeneity or reverse causality does not seem to drive our inferences. This study suggests that, consistent with survey results from Graham, Harvey, and Rajgopal [2005. “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 40: 3–73], managers may reduce or delay corporate investment to meet or beat short-term earnings benchmarks.     

The roles of energy markets and environmental regulation in reducing coal‐fired plant profits and electricity sector emissions

Between 2005 and 2015, US electricity sector emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, which harm human health and the environment, declined by two thirds, and many coal‐fired power plants became unprofitable and retired. Intense public controversy has focused on these changes, but the literature has not identified their underlying causes. Using a new electricity sector model of the US eastern interconnection that accurately reproduces unit operation, emissions, and retirement, we find that electricity consumption and natural gas prices account for nearly all the coal plant profitability declines and resulting retirements. Environmental regulations had little effect on these outcomes.     

Reliability and competitive electricity markets

We derive the optimal prices and investment program for an electric power system when there are price‐insensitive retail consumers served by load serving entities that can choose any level of rationing contingent on real‐time prices. We then examine the assumptions required for competitive electricity markets to achieve this optimal price and investment program and the implications of relaxing several of these assumptions. We analyze the interrelationships between regulator‐imposed wholesale market price caps and generating capacity obligations. The implications of potential network collapses for operating reserve requirements and whether market prices yield generation investments consistent with these reserve requirements are examined.     

The forward premium in electricity futures

Understanding the nature of the forward premium is particularly crucial, but rather elusive, for a non-storable commodity such as wholesale electricity. Whilst forward prices emerge as the expectation of spot plus, or minus, an ex ante premium for risk, the manifestation and empirical analysis must focus upon realised ex post premiums. This presents modelling requirements to control for shocks to the spot expectation as well as the endogeneity of ex post premia with spot price outcomes. In addition, because electricity is a derived commodity in the sense that market prices are often set by technologies that convert gas or coal into power, it is an open question whether much of the premia in power may actually be a pass-through of the premia in gas (or coal). Using a four dimensional VAR model we are able to distinguish fundamental and behavioural aspects of price formation in both the daily and monthly forward premia from the British market. We present new evidence on daily and seasonal sign reversals, associated with demand cycles, the greater importance of behavioural adaptations in the risk premia than fundamental or spot market risk measures, and the substantial fuel risk pass-through. We also show the value of a nonlinear specification in this context.     

Optimal investment and production decisions and the value of the firm

We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER.     

Power purchase agreements with incremental tariffs in local currency: An innovative green finance tool

Investment volume in green projects, specifically in the green electricity market, suffers from limitations such as inadequate long-term financing, various risks, and a low rate of return on investment. Renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs), as a direct legal contract between a power provider and a power buyer, are one of the most popular instruments to increase investment. In this study, we model an adjusted PPA in the local currency framework to lower exchange rate risk and incremental tariffs by having the government pay part of the spillover tax revenues to the PPA, leading to a higher return on investment. The major conclusion of this study is that the use of tax revenue through the spillover effect of green electricity supply is a suitable source of financing for PPAs. As one policy implication, we recommend that developing countries allocate 50% of the tax revenue originating from power supply and adopt incremental PPAs to encourage private investment in green projects.     

The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production

We study the behavior of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices on and around the weekly announcements by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the amount of natural gas in storage. We identify an inverse empirical relation between changes in futures prices and surprises in the change in natural gas in storage and that this relation is not driven by the absolute size of the surprise. The evidence also indicates prices react first in the futures market for natural gas with that information then flowing to the spot market. Post 2005, corresponding to a period of significant increases in the production of natural gas in the United States, the response of prices to storage surprises was larger in absolute value. No evidence is found of economically meaningful reactions to the surprise other than on the date the storage news is released. The results demonstrate the importance of fundamental information in the formation of natural gas prices.     

Investment–cash flow sensitivity measures investment thirst,but not financial constraint

Literature streams disagree about the capacity of investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) to measure both investment thirst and financial constraint. We argue that ICFS measures the former but not the latter. Therefore, we use Fazzari et al.'s study (1988) to develop a model to test the relationship between ICFS and financial constraint, but extend that model using Kornai (1979) to include investment thirst. We demonstrate: because the ICFS–financial constraint relationship varies, ICFS cannot measure financial constraint. Conversely, using a natural experiment of China's Four Trillion Stimulus policy, we show ICFS significantly and positively correlates with investment thirst after controlling for financial constraint.