甘肃省生产性服务业发展与经济增长关系研究——基于甘肃省相关数据的模型检验

以1994—2009年的甘肃省GDP和生产性服务业产值为样本,运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验对甘肃省生产性服务业发展与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。分析得到的结论有:(1)甘肃省生产性服务业发展和经济增长高度正相关;(2)甘肃省生产性服务业发展和经济增长存在长期稳定的均衡关系;(3)甘肃省生产性服务业发展和经济增长属于单向因果关系。甘肃省的经济增长引导着生产性服务业发展,经济增长是生产性服务业发展的格兰杰原因,生产性服务业发展却不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。     

辽宁省服务业发展与经济增长的实证研究

为探讨辽宁省服务业发展与经济增长之间的关系,剖析服务业FDI促进经济增长作用机制。文章根据历年服务业增加值与生产总值数据,证实服务业FDI对服务业经济增长具有显著促进作用。运用相关分析以及格兰杰因果关系检验进行实证分析,结果表明服务业国内投资对服务业经济的拉动作用还有很大的提升空间。     

中国服务业增长与技术进步的实证分析

本文通过2005年第一次全国经济普查后1978-2004年的时序数据，利用C-D生产函数、回归分析、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验等，对服务业增长与技术进步的关系进行了实证分析。研究表明，我国技术进步对服务业增长的正向作用明显，技术进步是服务业增长的格兰杰原因，但反之则不然。说明了经济普查后的技术进步对服务业增长具有较强的推动作用。这一结论对于决策者在推进服务业增长和技术进步方面具有理论和实践上的意义。     

青岛市服务业FDI与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文选取青岛市1990-2009年的相关数据,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,对青岛市服务业外商直接投资与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,研究表明青岛市服务业FDI与经济增长互为因果,青岛市服务业FDI能够促进青岛市经济增长.     

中国服务业增长与技术进步的实证分析

本文通过2005年第一次全国经济普查后1978～2004年的时序数据,利用C-D生产函数、回归分析、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验等,对服务业增长与技术进步的关系进行了实证分析.研究表明,我国技术进步对服务业增长的正向作用明显,技术进步是服务业增长的格兰杰原因,但反之则不然.说明了经济普查后的技术进步对服务业增长具有较强的推动作用.这一结论对于决策者在推进服务业增长和技术进步方面具有理论和实践上的意义.     

FDI与江苏服务业产业结构优化的实证分析

随着江苏省服务业FDI的不断增长,并将逐步成为外商在江苏投资的主体,势必会对江苏服务业产业结构优化产生一定地影响。本文选取1990～2007年的江苏实际利用外资额和传统服务业增加值及现代服务业增加值作为样本数据,运用格兰杰因果检验方法,关于FDI是否会对服务业产业结构优化产生影响进行了实证分析,研究表明FDI是现代或传统服务业增加值的格兰杰原因,对现代服务业增加值的报酬率大于对传统服务业增加值的报酬率,即FDI促进了服务业产业结构优化。     

生产性服务业对经济增长贡献的实证研究——以大连市为例

以大连市1979-2006年的数据为基础构建了多元线性回归模型,检验了大连市生产性服务业对经济增长的贡献程度。分析结果显示,大连市生产性服务业与经济增长互为格兰杰因果关系。     

政府行为对科技服务业集聚的影响研究——以深圳市南山区为例

科技服务业作为推动产业结构升级优化的关键产业，现已成为拉动地区经济发展的重要产业之一。基于政府行为这一视角，以南山区作为研究对象，选用2006-2017年时间序列数据，采用格兰杰因果检验分析政府行为对科技服务业集聚的影响。结果表明，随着高新技术产品产值不断增加，其对南山区经济增长的贡献度越来越大。为实现经济持续稳定增长，政府应加大对科学技术的支持力度，发挥引导作用，进而促进南山区科技服务业的集聚。     

陕西省能源消费与经济增长关系研究

基于协整检验和误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验的方法,研究了1978-2006年陕西省经济增长与能源消费之间的关系.通过研究发现,陕西省经济增长与能源消费之间存在着协整关系且两者之间的因果关系是从能源消费到经济增长,由此得出结论陕西省的经济增长模式是以高耗能为基础的能源依赖型模式,能源消费的增加推动了陕西省的经济发展.     

江苏省服务业利用FDI与经济增长的实证分析

伴随江苏省产业结构的升级,服务贸易发展水平不断提高,FDI对服务贸易的影响也越来越值得关注。运用1992²012年的数据,从江苏省服务业外商直接投资与服务业增加值、以及生产总值作为一个系统中相互决定和相互依存的内生变量角度构造动态模型,对江苏省服务贸易与FDI的关系进行研究。结果表明,江苏省服务业外商投资流量与GDP不存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。虽然GDP的增长是引起服务业外商直接投资增加的格兰杰原因,但是服务业外商直接投资的增加不是引起GDP增长的格兰杰原因。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

中俄经济技术合作面临新机遇

中俄在十年内把各自的GDP翻一番的目标,为发展中俄经济技术合作提供了机遇.仅仅依靠商品贸易的增长很难大幅度提升中俄经贸关系,需要全面开展经济技术合作,特别是加强在自然资源开发、跨国投资、军工技术和产品贸易领域的合作.     

INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY IN INDONESIA, 1965–2015: A SURVEY

This survey, first, provides an overview of the main developments in the infrastructure sector in Indonesia during the past five decades and, second, considers what the main policy and management bottlenecks in infrastructure appear to be. The overview of main developments indicates that, in broad terms, most parts of the sector have expanded considerably but that the needs remain acute for further expansion and for attention to the maintenance of existing facilities. Demand for infrastructure is high, especially since the regulated prices set for infrastructure services are often low. Access is often difficult, however, because of shortages of infrastructure, and quality is often unsatisfactory because of poor maintenance and indifferent management. These problems of access are exacerbated by the regulation of prices. This overview also points to the markedly different performances of industries in which pro-competitive policies have been applied and those in which more traditional policies of close regulation have restricted the operation of markets.