中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际

"新新贸易理论"为研究贸易的集约边际和扩展边际提供了理论基础,使其成为研究贸易增长方式的新维度。文章运用2001-2011年中国与30个主要国家(地区)的HS-6位数细分产品贸易数据,在对中国出口增长二元边际进行特征性事实描述的基础上,通过细分贸易成本的各种构成要素,探讨了中国对外贸易成本各组成部分对中国出口增长二元边际的作用机制。结果表明:中国的出口增长仍然主要归功于集约边际的拉动作用,与扩展边际相比,集约边际更具有"绝对主导、小幅震荡、稳步增加"的特征;不同贸易成本构成因素对二元边际的影响不同。总体上看,"距离在消亡"的同时,与一国实体经济相关的成本因素对集约边际的影响更大,而扩展边际则更多地受到外部冲击以及文化、法律等软环境因素的影响。     

异质性企业、结构转型与稳定出口

通过构建异质性企业、结构转型和出口增长的二元边际理论模型,本文认为转型国家出口增长主要沿集约边际实现的原因与其农业剩余劳动力有关,农业剩余劳动力越多,出口增长的集约边际越大、扩展边际越小。利用Tobit模型对1995-2009年中国出口到123个国家的HS-6位码贸易数据进行实证分析,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,我国农业剩余劳动力非农转移显著正向影响出口增长集约边际、负向影响扩展边际的效应确实存在。经济规模、贸易成本、人民币升值、区域经济一体化、外部冲击、语言的相通性、政治体制等变量对中国出口增长二元边际的影响机制不完全相同,表明要提高出口增长中的扩展边际比重,出口企业应实施市场多元化战略,将目标市场从传统高收入国家转移到发展中国家来,实现出口的稳定增长。     

中国农产品出口增长的二元边际——基于引力模型的实证研究

本文利用1995—2010年CEPIIBACI数据库的农产品贸易数据,从产品层面上将中国农产品出口分解为集约边际和扩展边际,然后基于扩展的引力模型,运用混合OLS、随机效应模型和Tobit模型估计了影响贸易增长的多个变量对二元边际的作用机制和影响程度。结果表明,现阶段中国农产品出口增长主要来源于集约边际,扩展边际所占的比重只有15%左右,但发展迅速,因而还有很大的提升空间。进口国经济发展水平、可变成本、自由贸易协定、经济冲击、农产品中间品属性等因素对出口集约边际和扩展边际的作用机制和影响程度不尽相同。     

中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及影响因素

本文使用Hummels和Klenow (2005)二元边际分解法,对2000-2013年中国农产品HS-6分位贸易数据进行分解,结果表明中国农产品出口增长主要来自集约边际的贡献,但扩展边际也发挥重要作用.在此基础上,借鉴Chaney (2008)的理论框架对中国农产品出口增长二元边际的影响因素进行实证检验,发现农业经济规模、贸易成本、农业生产率主要影响集约边际,可变贸易成本和固定贸易成本对集约边际和扩展边际均有显著负面影响.     

中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际

利用1995—2013年中国农产品出口的HS92六位编码数据,采用H-K测度方法测度中国农产品出口增长的二元边际,在此基础上,构建面板数据模型对农产品出口增长的二元边际影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,中国农产品的出口增长由集约边际和扩展边际共同拉动,但集约边际起主要的贡献作用,其贡献率在2003年以后到达70%以上。经济规模对集约边际有显著的正影响,农业附加值占GDP的比重、贸易成本、经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响。农业附加值占GDP的比重、与中国签订区域经济一体化协定对扩展边际有显著的正影响,贸易成本、人均GDP年增长率对扩展边际有显著的负影响。经济危机对集约边际有显著的负影响,扩展边际具有"稳定器"作用,这为解释中国农产品出口增长脆弱性问题提供了新的视角并具有丰富政策含义。     

中国农产品出口增长的二元边际及其影响因素——以蔬菜出口为例

采用Hummels和Klenow（2005）二元边际分解法对2003—2011年中国蔬菜产品出口数据的实证研究结果表明,中国蔬菜出口增长主要来自扩展边际的贡献,但集约边际在对主要贸易伙伴出口中也发挥着重要作用。对集约边际进一步分解后发现,中国蔬菜出口增长主要是数量扩张,价格边际的贡献相对较小,表明中国蔬菜出口还一定程度上存在“重数量、轻质量”的粗放型增长方式。对二元边际的影响因素实证研究发现,集约边际和扩展边际不仅各自影响因素不尽相同,而且各影响因素的作用方向与作用强度也不相同。     

贸易促进机构对我国出口增长二元边际的影响

以新-新贸易理论为基础,利用CEPII BACI国际贸易数据库1996-2011年我国对十六个主要贸易伙伴国的微观层面出口数据,将出口增长总量分解为集约边际和扩展边际,通过动态面板数据模型GMM估计方法实证分析贸易促进机构对我国出口增长二元边际的影响,结果显示:贸易促进机构对出口增长集约边际和扩展边际具有显著的正向影响,对出口增长扩展边际的促进作用大于集约边际;贸易促进委员会比驻外使领馆对出口增长发挥的效力更为明显;贸易促进机构对中高技术行业产品出口增长二元边际的促进作用大于中低技术行业产品。因此,我国应增加贸易促进机构的数量,尤其要增设贸易促进委员会。     

贸易便利化对中国相对出口结构的非对称性影响——来自产业层面的经验证据

在分析贸易便利化对贸易影响机制的基础上,借鉴Kancs(2007)的异质性企业贸易模型,考察2004-2007年贸易便利化对中国谷物磨制品制造业双边相对出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,中国相对贸易伙伴国贸易便利化水平的提升主要促进了相对扩展边际,抑制了相对集约边际,且对相对扩展边际促进要大于对相对集约边际抑制。上述结论对于不同的贸易便利化指标稳健。另外,中国贸易便利化水平的提升主要促进相对扩展边际,抑制相对集约边际;而中国贸易伙伴国贸易便利化水平的提升对相对集约边际有显著促进作用,却显著抑制相对扩展边际。由此,文章认为中国应根据贸易结构优化和产业发展的需要,选择有针对性的贸易便利化政策和国际合作。     

贸易成本如何影响贸易扩张路径——基于企业异质性视角的二元边际考察

依据Kancs改进的异质性企业理论模型,构建了不同贸易成本对贸易扩张路径的影响机制,并结合中国和20个贸易伙伴国的贸易和发展数据模拟估计固定和可变贸易成本对贸易扩张的二元化路径的影响。得出的结论是:在2003-2009年间,中国的出口扩张主要源自集约的贸易边际,而贸易成本的变动对中国出口总量增长的影响主要是通过促进扩展的贸易边际实现的。与可变贸易成本相比,出口固定成本的下降更能促进扩展的贸易边际。这一结论反映出当前中国积极实施自由贸易区发展战略的重要意义,同时也指明我国未来的贸易扩张路径应向贸易扩展边际方向转变。     

贸易增长的二元边际研究述评

异质性企业贸易理论运用微观数据,成功的在同一框架下分析出口增长的集约边际和扩展边际,形成二元边际结构、影响因素和福利效应三个方向的新进展,积累了一定的研究文献,但也存在一些待解决的问题和新的现象:二元边际定义的不一致、细分集约边际和扩展边际分析视角的趋势、综合福利效应不显著的挑战、对扩展边际稳定出口效应的质疑。本文对相关文献进行述评,提出未来研究的思路和方向,旨在为进一步的研究提供一些新的线索。     

Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data*

This paper analyses the relationship between production subsidies and firms’ export performance using a very comprehensive and recent firm‐level database and controlling for the endogeneity of subsidies. It documents robust evidence that production subsidies stimulate export activity at the intensive margin, although this effect is conditional on firm characteristics. In particular, the positive relationship between subsidies and the intensive margin of exports is strongest among profit‐making firms, firms in capital‐intensive industries, and those located in non‐coastal regions. Compared to firm characteristics, the extent of heterogeneity across ownership structure (SOEs, collectives, and privately owned firms) proves to be relatively less important.     

Currency Unions,Export Margins,and Product Differentiation: An Empirical Assessment for European Monetary Union

This paper reconsiders the trade effects of the euro, providing a decomposition into its effects on the extensive margin and intensive margin. Furthermore, it relates the more disaggregated estimates for 93 two‐digit HS product groups to the elasticity of substitution, thereby testing a key hypothesis of heterogenous firm trade theory. The estimates for the period 1996–2011 suggest a trade effect of the euro of some 28%, which has mainly materialized through the intensive margin. A negative net effect of the euro on the extensive margin is found for several product groups, supporting anecdotal evidence that firms have consolidated their product varieties in response to the elimination of exchange rate variability. Finally, the disaggregated estimates are in line with heterogenous firm trade theory models, suggesting that a large elasticity of substitution dampens the effect of a trade cost reduction on the extensive margin and amplifies its effect on the intensive margin.     

The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth

We investigate and compare countries' export growth based on their performance at the extensive and intensive export margins. Our empirical approach is motivated by an extension to the Melitz (2003) model of heterogeneous firms in which exporters are subject to a one-time sunk cost and also a per-period fixed cost. With imperfect information a firm may enter export markets but shortly exit when it learns its per-period fixed costs. We apply this insight to disaggregated export data and confirm that indeed most export relationships are very short lived. We then show that the survival issue is a significant factor in explaining differences in long run export performance. We find that developing countries would experience significantly higher export growth if they were able to improve their performance with respect to the two key components of the intensive margin: survival and deepening.     

Heterogeneous firms,corporate taxes and export behavior: A firm-level investigation for Italy

This paper analyses the effect of home corporate taxes on a firm’s decision to expand the scale of its activity through exports using a rich dataset on Italian firms. Starting out from the observation that firms’ export activity vary greatly among them and tend to be systematically related to firm’s characteristics, we relate differences in firms’ export choices to firm level incidence of corporate taxes. Our results suggest that (i) corporate taxes matter at both the extensive and the intensive margin and (ii) higher corporate taxes may increase the probability of new firms’ entry in the foreign market while they decrease the export intensity of incumbent exporters.     

金融发展、FDI与中国制造业出口绩效——基于新新贸易理论的实证分析

本文以新近发展的新新贸易理论为基础,将中国80余万条制造业出口数据归类到我国国民经济分类制造业,分别使用Probit模型和Heckman选择模型检验了金融发展和FDI对中国制造业出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,融资约束是影响企业出口决策的重要因素,而金融发展有助于企业缓解融资约束,使其能够在最优状态下生产,不仅有利其进入出口市场,还扩大了其出口份额,从而对贸易的扩展边际和集约边际都有积极的影响。此外,FDI缓解了我国出口企业面临的信贷约束,促进融资依赖性行业出口的二元边际,一定程度上发挥了与金融发展同样的作用,进一步的估计表明,FDI是通过替代银行信贷而发挥作用的。     

Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of exporters (extensive margin). Using data on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the paper finds sunk costs hysteresis in entry and exit to be an important factor in determining export market participation, but unrelated to exchange rate uncertainty. The sunk costs of entering the market appear to be much larger than the costs of exiting the market. Finally, although hysteresis exists, its effect on the responsiveness of aggregate trade volumes to exchange rate changes is quantitatively small. A 10% home currency depreciation results in an increases in export volume due to the increase in the number of exporting firms of only 1.4% of export volume.     

Deconstructing gravity: trade costs and extensive and intensive margins

Abstract This paper uses data on US exports to decompose exports into the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin) and average export sales (the intensive margin). We show how a range of proxies for trade costs has different impacts on the two margins. Distance has a negative effect on both margins, but the magnitude is considerably larger for the extensive margin. Most of the variables capturing language, internal geography, infrastructure and import cost barriers work through the extensive margin. We show that these results are consistent with a Melitz‐style model of trade with heterogeneous firm productivity and fixed costs.     

The impact of trade promotion services on Canadian exporter performance

From 1999 to 2006, Canadian firms successfully diversified their exports to destinations beyond the United States while smaller firms increased their share in total exports. Both are explicit aims of the Trade Commissioner Service export promotion program. Exploiting assumptions from the treatment effects literature, we identify a causal, export‐boosting effect. In contrast with existing evidence for Latin American countries, the intensive margin effect—higher exports to existing product‐destination markets—dominates. Effects at the extensive margin—exporting more products to more destinations—are smaller and sensitive to identification assumptions. We interpret this evidence in light of trade models with heterogeneous firms.