Crisis and opportunity: From technological to social change

Despite rapid technological and social change, we continue to play the game by the old rules, exacerbating the global crises and undermining chance and choice for the future. This article calls for new rules: determined and responsible political leadership, an improved social conscience, pluralism in technology, and the acceptance of unemployment as a temporary and creative necessity rather than fighting it by resisting technological innovation. Anticipation and preventive action in confronting the future are better than post facto adjustments or repair.     

Was spricht eigentlich gegen eine private Arbeitslosenversicherung?

This article wants to base the current discussion about the privatization of unemployment insurance on a perspective of insurance economics. The arguments against private unemployment insurance are separated in two prospects: insurance technique and social policy. Therefore, the mixing of objective-technical and normative arguments, which is widely spread in the literature, is broken down. It is shown that the only criterion, which holds against private unemployment insurance, is that of “relative poorness”. Consequently, from a social policy perspective the monetary burden of actuarial premiums on people at high and medium risk is not acceptable. Arguments like positively correlated risks, moral hazard, insufficient differentiation of premiums and collectively underestimated individual unemployment risks appear to be poorly valid. As a solution of the problem of “relative poorness” a new outline for privatization of unemployment insurance is presented. The proposal focuses on a combination of private unemployment and pension insurance.     

Unemployment insurance: Risk sharing versus efficiency

Two models of spot labor markets are presented in which labor suppliers have heterogeneous attitudes towards effort and in which uncertainty prevails on labor productivity and growth. The problem of selecting efficient rules to manage unemployment insurance (UI) systems is considered. We show that there does not exist any system which combines an efficient allocation of labor with an efficient allocation of risks among employees, unemployed workers and capital-owners. Pareto-efficient policy rules are a best compromise between these two conflicting objectives. It implies that productive efficiency could be improved in periods of mass unemployment by reducing UI benefits. That would be at the expense of more inefficiencies in the sharing of macroeconomic risks. At the optimum, the UI benefit is positively correlated to growth and it is negatively correlated to labor productivity.     

论我国农民工失业保险法律制度的建立和完善

农民工工作技能低、流动性大的特点使其失业风险远高于城市劳动者,但由于我国目前有关农民工失业保险法律制度的缺失,使得他们无法获得公平的社会保障,从而面临巨大的生存和心理压力,容易产生种种社会问题。因此构建适合我国国情与农民工自身特点的农民工失业保险制度,既保障了农民工的基本生活,又缓解了社会矛盾,对于当前和谐社会的建设具有重要的现实意义。     

Real exchange rate, productivity and labor market frictions

We extend the classic Balassa-Samuelson model to an environment with search unemployment. We show that the classic Balassa-Samuelson model with the assumption of full employment emerges as a special case of our more generalized model. In our generalized model, the degree of labor market matching efficiency affects the strength of the structural relationship between the real exchange rate and sectoral productivity through influencing labor’s choice between employment and unemployment as well as movement across sectors. When the relative labor market matching friction is high, search unemployment is high and the standard Balassa-Samuelson effect may not hold. Empirical evidence supports our theory: controlling for differences in labor market frictions across countries provides a better fit in estimating the Balassa-Samuelson effect.     

农民工失业保险问题探究

我国农民工人多而势弱,一方面,他们在经济社会发展过程中的作用越来越举足轻重,另一方面,他们又是权益最得不到保障、最容易大面积遭受失业灾害侵袭的弱势群体。随着改革开放的不断深入,我国农民工失业保险制度建设长期缺失的现状与经济社会的发展越来越不合拍,因而,从我国国情和农民工实际出发,尽快建立健全农民工失业保险制度,切实有效地解决农民工劳动权利和基本生活的保障问题,不仅必要,而且迫切。     

Social Security,Unemployment, and Growth

The paper develops an overlapping generations model that highlights interactions between social security, unemployment and growth. The social security system has two components: old age pensions and unemployment insurance. Pensions have a direct effect on economic growth. Both pensions and unemployment benefits influence equilibrium unemployment caused by wage bargaining. Since unemployment deteriorates growth, both types of social security have an indirect negative effect on growth.JEL Code: E24, H55, J51     

Taxation, Public Policy, and Dynamics of Unemployment

This paper provides an overview of the key issues relating to taxation, public policy and the dynamics of unemployment.It takes issue with the widely held view that generous social insurance schemes and the associated highpayroll taxes have been the major cause of the high unemployment rates which have persisted in Europe over thepast 15 years. It puts forward a framework for a theory of adjustment, based on the portfolio theory of the riskaverse firm and the efficiency wage theory of labor markets. This is used to explain why in the onset of a downturn,the hiring rate may lag the layoff rate, thus giving rise to rising unemployment rates. It is also shown to provideguidance as to policies which enhance the ability of firms to bear risks and which reduce costs of hiring and firing.The paper argues that while policies which increase severance or layoff costs may be well intended they mayactually serve to exacerbate the magnitude of employment fluctuations. Similarly, unemployment compensation,which is designed to ease the burden on those who are unemployed, may lead to higher levels of equilibriumunemployment. These programs can be restructured in ways which simultaneously ease the short-run burden ofthose thrown into unemployment, while reducing the adverse impact of these programs on the unemployment rate.     

政府失业目标调整与就业质量——来自微观企业层面的证据

本文探讨地方政府失业目标调整对企业就业质量的影响。以2870份市级政府工作报告中计划失业率测量政府失业目标,以企业冗员反向测量就业质量,研究发现:更宽松的失业目标调整会降低冗员,提升就业质量;这种调整影响存在非对称性,企业对失业目标的上调更为敏感,会显著降低企业冗员,但下调影响并不显著,这说明调整影响更多来自政府导向下的企业主动行为。本文也发现失业目标调整的影响在民企、补贴较少的公司和市场化程度高的地区更强。最后,本文发现更宽松的失业目标调整会提高企业全要素生产率和公司价值。本文结论表明,在失业目标管理中,除考虑就业率之外,还应关注就业质量,通过引导企业创造新的更合适的就业岗位来实现“更高质量和更充分就业”目标。     

Time inconsistency as a rationale for public unemployment insurance

A role for public unemployment insurance is developed based on the inability of the government to commit to a future rate of unemployment. This is illustrated using a model in which a minimum wage policy combined with unemployment insurance is welfare-improving. Unemployment insurance could be decentralized to the private sector if the government could commit to a minimum wage. However, if not, a government that acts in the interest of the workers will have an incentive to increase the minimum wage to exploit private insurers. In the absence of commitment, an equilibrium with private unemployment insurance will not exist.     

亚洲社会保障最低标准：基本项目及实施路径

建立亚洲社会保障最低标准,是推动亚洲社会福利水平提高的重要途径。以人类基本需求为出发点结合亚洲发展现状,这一标准至少应包括社会救助、老年和遗属年金、医疗保险、工伤保险以及失业保险几大基本项目。通过制定有效措施,分步骤、分层次地推动社会保障覆盖面的扩大是需要优先解决的问题。这既需要政府作为首要责任主体加以引导和支持,以及非政府组织和私营部门的监督和共同努力,也应加强国家和地区之间的交流与合作。     

东北老工业基地改造中的下岗失业问题

在改造和振兴东北老工业基地过程中，解决下岗失业问题是一个绕不开的难题，并且还和其他的问题交织在一起，相互影响，成为改造东北老工业基地的一个关键点。因此，把东北老工业基地的下岗失业问题作为一个重要课题加以研究，具有很强的现实性。     

Improving the Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off: Mandatory Savings Accounts for Social Insurance

In the modern welfare state a substantial part of an individual's tax bill is transferred back to the same individual taxpayer in the form of social transfers. This provides a rationale for financing part of social insurance through mandatory savings accounts. We analyze the behavioral and welfare effects of compulsory savings accounts in an intertemporal model with uncertainty, involuntary unemployment, endogenous retirement decisions, credit constraints, and heterogeneous agents. We show that the introduction of (early) retirement and unemployment accounts generates a Pareto improvement by enabling the government to provide lifetime income insurance and liquidity insurance in a more efficient manner.     

Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but are uncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation: rational expectations (RE) and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under RE with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates.     

The Netherlands: An employment policy role model?

Conclusion While in recent years the level of social security benefits in the Netherlands has been reduced somewhat —whereby to some extent this involved the employers shouldering additional costs (e.g. for disability pensions) —the benefits for unemployment and other social bene-fits remain high in international comparative terms. Despite a slight decline in social benefits as a share of GDP, public sector spending as a whole is, at around 50%, slightly higher than in Germany, although the Netherlands has not had to cope with extraordinary burdens such as have resulted from German unification. The successes achieved by the Netherlands on the labour market have been exaggerated. Firstly, the real level of unemployment is likely to be actually rather high in international terms, at least once one dispenses with a narrow definition and takes account, in particular, of the large number of occupationally disabled. Secondly, the fall in the unemployment rate is far from spectacular. Although the increase in the number of wage and salary earners has been substantially higher in the Netherlands than in west Germany, this in no way represents a comparable increase in the volume of employment—measured in working hours—as the incidence of part-time employment has increased far faster there than in west Germany. The Netherlands has achieved-slightly-higher growth than west Germany. This success is largely due to a very moderate growth of wages and salaries, amounting to a real depreciation of the guilder against the D-Mark, an economic policy strategy that can be successful in a small country, but one which, if applied by a large country such as Germany, would merely initiate a beggar-thy-neighbour race to lower real exchange rates.     

LESSORS' DEPRECIATION AND PROFIT-AN APPROACH VIA DEPRIVAL VALUE

Lessor accounting raises intriguing problems. Its accepted methods spread depreciation, and thus profit, in yearly doses whose size jumps capriciously and with scant regard to any principle. Yet the economic qualities of an (asset do not change just because it is leased; the only new factor is the odd way in which tax and interest re-shape its cash flows. If the rules of deprival value are sound for familiar assets, they should be sound too for leased assets. But its arithmetic must expand to cover flows (tax and interest) that are not usually coupled with depreciation. Two results then follow: after-tax profit tends to be constant throughout the lease, and the full size of tax bounty becomes clear.     

Social welfare effects of tax-benefit reform under endogenous participation and unemployment: an ordinal approach

This paper analyzes the social welfare effects of tax-benefit reforms in a framework integrating endogenous labor supply and unemployment. We adopt an ordinal approach to social welfare comparisons by searching for “socially desirable” reforms that would improve social welfare for an entire class of social welfare functions. In the model, there is a discrete distribution of individuals’ productivities and individuals are heterogeneous with respect to leisure preferences (or disability of work). Labor supply decisions are limited to the participation decision. Unemployment is modeled in a search and matching framework with individual wage bargaining. For the social welfare analysis, the model is calibrated for Switzerland. Starting from a situation with an unemployment benefit scheme, the introduction of in-work benefits is shown to be a “socially desirable” reform: it would be unanimously preferred to the current situation according to all social welfare functions based on the criteria of Pareto, anonymity, and the principle of transfers. This result holds for two different types of preference heterogeneity (leisure preferences or disability of work) and also for the case where job search effort cannot be monitored.     

Housing and the labor market: Time to move and aggregate unemployment

Conventional macro-search models (Mortensen and Pissarides) with unemployment benefits and taxes have been able to account for the variation in unemployment rates across countries but do not account for the role geographic mobility or commuting time might play. We build a model in which both unemployment and mobility rates are endogenous. Our findings indicate that an increase in unemployment benefits and in taxes does not generate a strong decline in mobility but does increase unemployment as in the standard model. We find that with higher commuting costs the effect of housing frictions plays a large role and can generate a substantial decline in mobility.     

完善我国社会保障制度的研究

目前我国的养老保险制度、失业保险制度、医疗保险制度、农村社会保障制度等很不完善,与我国经济和社会发展很不协调,因此应加以完善。