Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies

Adaptive Foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning. Innovation is seen as increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain and therefore in need of broad and multi-disciplinary exploration and participation. The adaptive planning paradigm provides a natural guide for navigation of this complex landscape: one should consider whether strategic decisions should be deferred until more information is available and simultaneously whether to invest in (real) options which would facilitate the implementation of such decisions if taken some future time. This does not mean that all strategic decisions should be deferred. Rather it is the careful combining of commitment and opportunism that best enables actors to pursue their super-ordinate values and objectives. Compared to conventional foresight, Adaptive Foresight thus favours a more modest interpretation of the collective ability to “shape the future” and stresses the need to adapt to actions by others. Here it is equally important to be able to exploit the upside of uncertainty as to abate its downside. The purpose of this paper is to achieve a conceptual consolidation of Adaptive Foresight, to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far, and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead.     

Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion

Likewise many other developed and developing countries, a national Technology Foresight Program was carried out in Turkey under the name of Vision 2023. This paper analyzes and discusses the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program from a contextualist perspective. The contextualist perspective suggests relationships between the context, content and process of change; and thus proposes that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering these relationships. This viewpoint is seen as a necessary condition for the achievement of change in organizations and society. In this respect, the Vision 2023 Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing (i) how the factors in these contexts affected particular decisions taken on the content and approaches adopted in the process and (ii) how problems emerged when these relationships were dismissed. Through the analysis, the paper suggests that a Foresight program should be organized, designed and practised by considering the effects of the external contexts (e.g. national, regional and/or corporate contexts) and structural and behavioral factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.     

Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France

The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources.     

Foresight on biopharmaceuticals: Designing foresight methods for Spanish biopharmaceuticals

This paper has as its starting point the analysis of the systemic failures in the Spanish Biopharmaceutical Innovation System grounded in the study carried out by the same authors for the OECD between 2002 and 2004. Based on the evidence that one of the main failures is the lack of sufficient linkages between the different actors involved in the dynamic of the system, this paper proposes third-generation foresight as an instrument of science and innovation policy for resolving the problem of systemic failures. Foresight exercises could become an important instrument for reorienting policy, building new networks and linkages among the different actors, bringing new stakeholders into the strategic debate, exploring future opportunities for investment in science and innovation activities, etc. The objective of this paper is the design of a foresight exercise on biopharmaceuticals with the aim of solving, or at least reducing, the failures of this Spanish sectoral system of innovation and in consequence making it stronger.     

Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

Resource integration of regional economic development in northwest China

Northwestern area is the most arid and underdeveloped area in China. Lots of researches have been doneto find the approaches to alleviate poverty. But there are some problems, for example, how to invest, how to use capital,and why the utilization rate is ambiguous. Water, capital and human resources are analyzed in this paper to be comparedwith their Utilization rates. As a result, according to the dependences of economic growth on those resources, a newapproach has been selected to organize the integration ways among these resources for economic development innorthwestern China. The efficient ways to develop northwestern China are： firstly, use the wanting resources mosteffectively to make an efficient integration model of multiple resources. For example, enhance the utilization rate of waterto raise the value of other resources. Secondly, invest more in basic factors for economic development to upgrade thecompetitiveness in the western China. For example, invest more in primary education and sustainable development ofbasic natural resources in order to have more power for sustainable development.     

企业异质性与加计扣除政策研发激励：来自中国高新技术企业的实证

基于2012-2015年全国高新技术企业税收数据，筛选仅享受研发加计扣除政策的高新技术企业微观数据，利用面板回归模型，检验研发加计扣除对研发投入的异质性激励效应。结果表明：加计扣除政策能够刺激企业进行研发投入。从地区看，加计扣除政策激励效应具有地域差异；从经济属性看，加计扣除政策对外资、民营企业研发激励效应较强；从行业看，加计扣除政策对科学技术行业激励效应最大。     

基于K-means与技术生命周期的技术预见方法研究——以水体净化技术为例

预见水体净化技术发展趋势有助于实现“美丽中国”建设目标。已有技术预见方法缺乏定量客观依据,相关评判指标也不够全面。从Innography数据库检索2008-2019年发布的3552个污水处理技术专利,运用多维标度分析和K均值聚类法,基于专利静态指标分析专利技术发展潜力,采用技术生命周期分析法从动态视角判断每类技术的发展前景。研究发现：①污水与污染物双重回收可持续性技术在多个静态评价指标方面均优于其它技术,且处于从引入期到发展期的过渡阶段,具有较大的发展空间;②以去除特定污染物为目标的功能单一技术已被淘汰,市场开始应用污水处理原理不同的多种技术联合处理方式。据此,提出企业应选择污染物回收率高、二次污染物排放少、整体“净效益”为正的污水处理技术,并采取新旧技术联合处理方式降低企业采用新技术的转换成本。     

德国纳米技术发展现状及启示

本文在调研德国纳米技术最新发展现状的基础上，对其研发体系、经费投入、产业化情况进行了总结分析，并对我国纳米技术发展提出了思考建议。     

中小商业银行坚持科学发展观给投资者的启示

当前许多实业集团纷纷进入银行业，作者认为实业投资者收购中小商业银行后，一定要用科学发展观指导银行企业发展，要以资本收益率为中心，充分考虑规模、安全、效益的协调发展。文中阐述了作者对中小商业银行坚持科学发展观内涵的认识，提出了相关的建议措施。     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

论西部旅游业的优势产业地位及发展对策

西部旅游资源富集度高,旅游产品市场需求旺盛,旅游业发展潜力巨大。西部旅游业是有利于合理配置资源的优势产业,是发展外向型经济、通过服务出口能进入国际产业水平分工体系参与国际竞争的优势产业。发挥西部旅游业的产业优势,需要采取政策引导、科学规划、市场拓展、加快人才培养等一系列措施。     

论确认不侵犯专利权之诉的起诉与受理

确认不侵犯专利权之诉属于消极的确认之诉,人民法院受理此类案件应当从是否具备消极确认之诉的利益和起诉条件两个方面进行审查。关于诉的利益审查主要注重权利人的警告或威胁是否存在,而不应注重是否已给被控人带来实际不利益。关于起诉条件,原告既可以是被警告人本人,也可以是利害关系人;既可以是已经进行生产、销售相关产品的人,也可以是正在投资建厂或准备投资建厂的人。当专利权利人已经在合理期限内寻求行政救济时,人民法院不能受理确认不侵权之诉。     

技术预见活动所体现的科学发展观——以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例

简述了技术预见活动在全球的开展情况,以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例,介绍了技术预见活动的步骤和使用方法,分析了技术预见活动过程所体现的科学发展观。     

高校基建工程结算审计的途径分析

目前,对基建工程结算实施审计,是防止资金外流的一个重要环节。基建工程结算审计对调整投资结构、控制投资规模、提高投资效益具有十分重要的意义。应针对高校基建工程结算审计中出现的主要问题,采取切实可行地解决途径及技巧,让基建投资发挥最佳的经济效益。     

技术预见南方国家视野的困境

随着国家创新实力的增强,中国正在从南方国家向创新型国家演进,处境与当年日本相似。南方国家在开展技术预见时面临知识创新能力相对较弱和知识资产不足等困境,信息不对称可能导致技术预见失去效用。根据信息不对称理论,南方国家在掌握信息内容和时间方面与北方国家存在很大差异。掌握信息比较充分的北方国家处于相对有利地位,而信息比较贫乏的南方国家则处于不利地位,若盲目照搬北方国家的技术预见理论和实践,则可能落入南方国家的视野陷阱。中国创新全球效应日益突出,应在全球创新视野下开展技术预见,排除技术民族主义等干扰。     

The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications

This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified. We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework. The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally, the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight.     

Analysis of barriers in the transition toward sustainable mobility in the Netherlands

The transition toward a sustainable transportation system in the Netherlands takes place in the context of the Dutch “Transition management policy framework”. We study four technological routes that the “Platform Sustainable Mobility” has selected for this goal: (1) hybridization of vehicles, (2) liquid biofuels, (3) natural gas as a transportation fuel and (4) hydrogen as a transportation fuel. These technological routes all envision large-scale changes in vehicle propulsion technology and fuel infrastructure. Furthermore, they compete for the scarce resources available to invest in new (fuel) infrastructures, which implicates that these ‘transition paths’ are also interdependent at the level of the mobility system. The main outcome of the analysis is the identification of barriers that are currently blocking the transition toward sustainable mobility. Barriers are classified as being related to (1) technology and vehicle development, (2) the availability of (fuel) infrastructures, and (3) elements of the institutional infrastructure. The transition management framework currently misses guidelines for coping with (competing) technologies that each require large infrastructural investments. We further argue that avoiding undesired lock-ins and creating a beneficial institutional context for sustainable mobility cannot be pursued at the transition path level. Therefore, we recommend that a more systemic approach should be taken to the transition to sustainable mobility, in which the interdependencies between the transition paths are critically assessed and in which the possibilities to legitimize sustainable mobility as a whole should be used.     

中美两国基础研究社会捐赠比较及对我国的启示

鼓励多元化投入基础研究的国家政策频繁出台，使社会捐赠作为基础研究投入来源引起学者普遍关注。美国运用社会资本进行科研捐赠具有多年发展经验，在支持生命科学、数学、物理学等前沿基础研究领域取得较好成效。为考察我国基础研究社会捐赠现状，对中美两国社会捐赠框架、科研投入多元化格局、捐赠激励政策、非营利机构布局及社会捐赠瓶颈等内容进行对比，从增设基础研究捐赠类目、成立基础研究专项基金会、完善基础研究捐赠税收优惠政策和积极吸收社会小额捐款4个方面提出适合我国国情的基础研究社会捐赠政策措施。