Population growth,agricultural intensification,induced innovation and natural resource sustainability: An application of neoclassical growth theory

Using a simple neoclassical type growth model including both man-made and natural capital as inputs to production, the theoretical basis for a U-shaped relationship between agricultural intensification and farm household investment in renewable resource capital is established. As development of technology, infrastructure, or markets increase the relative return to investment in man-made capital over natural capital, resource depletion occurs as man-made capital is substituted for lower return natural capital. Once returns are equalized, both man-made and natural capital are accumulated. If labor and these forms of capital are complementary, the output effects outweigh the substitution effects in the long run, leading to net accumulation of natural as well as man-made capital as a result of such technological or market development. Population growth also induces investment in both man-made and natural resource capital in the long run by increasing their marginal products. However, population growth causes declining per capita levels of both natural and man-made capital and production per capita in the long run, if technology is fixed and decreasing returns to scale. The model thus supports the Boserupian argument of induced intensification and resource improvement, as well as the Malthusian argument of the impoverishing effects of population growth. However, population growth may also induce development of infrastructure, markets, and technological or institutional innovation by reducing the fixed costs per capita of these changes, though these developments may not occur automatically. Government policies can play a large role in affecting whether these potential benefits of population growth are realized. In addition, credit policies may reduce resource degradation caused by substitution of man-made for natural capital, by allowing farmers to accumulate man-made capital (such as fertilizers) without depleting their natural capital. Policies to internalize the external environmental costs of using man-made capital will reduce both types of capital and production, indicating a clear trade-off between addressing environmental concerns on the one hand and reducing poverty and promoting resource conservation investments on the other. By contrast, internalizing the external benefits of investments in resources increases wealth and production per capita in the long run. The ‘intertemporal externality’ due to a higher private than social rate of time preference does not justify interventions to promote investments in resource capital; rather it argues for the promotion of savings and investment in general.     

国外森林可持续经营经济学研究综述

森林经营范式从木材持续收获经营转向森林可持续经营，并且森林可持续经营成为林业经济学的主要研究内容，这要求林业经济学拓展其研究领域，并召唤森林可持续经营经济学。主流经济学中涌现出各种新的理论形成了众多的经济学分支学科，它们在解决森林可持续经营的实践问题的同时，也为森林可持续经营经济学提供了理论来源。其中，生态经济学对森林可持续经济学的发展具有重要的理论贡献。森林可持续经营经济学对传统林业经济学理论模型的批判与修正也需要生态经济学的自然资本理论的发展。     

Human behavior and the use of experiments to understand the agricultural,resource, and environmental challenges of the XXI century

The use of laboratory¹ experiments in economics, and their later deployment in the field as a tool for exploring how actual decision‐makers respond to information, incentives or institutions has brought a revolution to how we model economic systems, and design policies for them. This new century will bring challenges for the study of agriculture, natural resources and the environment, where it will be necessary to have a better understanding of human behavior, in a world where climate on the one hand, and land, labor and food markets are ever more unstable. This article reviews the intellectual history of a rich dialogue between theory and experiments with a particular focus on its relevance for agricultural, resource and environmental issues. Special attention will be given to the case of common‐pool resources where this dialogue between models, field work and laboratory experiments continues to provide a rich cross‐fertilization for the advance in the understanding of the economic systems that governs these resources. I will close by arguing that agricultural, environmental and resource economists will have to take part of this behavioral revolution by embracing experiments in their teaching, their research and their policy design.     

环境与自然资源经济学研究的新趋势

在总结欧美发达国家环境与自然资源经济学研究成果的基础上,系统地论述了本学科研究的新课题和发展趋势。不确定性问题研究及新理论工具的引入将是本学科理论创新的焦点：环境与资源价值评估主要集中于发展新的方法和检验假设;资源经济学研究,将把生态效益、环境效益、政策法规引入资源开发模型;经济增长与环境、资源的相互关系,将成为重要的研究课题;应用研究与交叉学科研究将成为本学科未来发展的主题。     

Future-proofing the farm: On-farm wind turbine development in farm business decision-making

The European Union is committed to increasing the renewable energy produced and consumed within its territory, creating an opportunity and demand for renewable energy production on agricultural land. In this paper, Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is utilised to structure qualitative research on the role of renewable energy production in farm business decision-making, through a case study in North East Scotland. Qualitative interviews were undertaken with 23 farmers who had pursued wind energy production, and a further nine key informants. It is found that farmers undertake wind energy production primarily to ‘future proof’ their farms, increasing the long-term economic viability of their farms through business diversification and profitable capital investment. Although environmental considerations were not the primary consideration in turbine development, respondents recognised the energy dependence of farming and the depletion of world energy resources, including these issues in their rationales. The primary obstacles to turbine development focused around economic risks and transaction costs, which some respondents moderated by reducing turbine size or renting land to developers, thus increasing their ‘perceived behavioural control’. Relationships between intention and behaviour are thus found to be multi-directional. The authors argue that on-farm renewable energy production could lead to increased environmental awareness among farmers (and thus more economically and environmentally sustainable agricultural practices), as well as providing a potential economic boost for local economies, but that these opportunities are at risk of being co-opted by large-scale energy companies, which are better able to negotiate the growing complexities and risks of turbine development.     

Semi‐Subsistence Farming: An Elusive Concept Posing Thorny Policy Questions

The massive expansion of semi‐subsistence farming in the European Union after the Eastern enlargements poses a real challenge to rural development. The problems of semi‐subsistence farms are low cash incomes and incidence of poverty, sub‐optimal use of land and labour, a lack of capital and poor contribution to rural growth. However, they play an important welfare function in some rural areas in Europe; they manage more than 11 million ha of agricultural land and deliver ecosystem services. The Common Agricultural Policy will have to accommodate this now widespread production system, through existing or new policy packages. Particularly important is support for commercialisation to incentivise and smooth the transition to commercial agriculture, and agri‐environmental payments to compensate the semi‐subsistence farmers for the provision of ecosystem services.     

Importing terrestrial biocapacity: The U.S. case and global implications

Human societies depend for their survival on goods and services provided by both local and global ecosystems. For most of history, people used mainly local resources. Increasingly, however, globalization and trade enable consuming populations everywhere to support themselves on the output of distant ecosystems. This is potentially problematic because of global change and because the spatial separation of material production (including resource exploitation) from consumption eliminates the direct negative feedback that normally occurs when people dependent on local ecosystems degrade those ecosystems. With spatial separation comes psychological separation. Modern consumers remain generally unconscious of their growing reliance on biophysical goods and services produced half a world away and see no connection between their consumer lifestyles and distant ecological consequences. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to raise a cautionary flag about unfettered trade and to show the value of accounting for trade-related physical flows and their impacts on natural capital in sustainability analyses. Using the United States as an example, we present an analytical method that can locate and measure the ecosystem area embodied in any population's imports of renewable resources. We quantify U.S. imports from specific countries around the world; we estimate the area of terrestrial ecosystems in those countries devoted to consumers in the U.S. and we highlight both increasing U.S. imports and their potential impact on extra-territorial ecosystems. This method creates indirect (conceptual) feedback between consumption and ecosystems integrity which we hope will partially replace the physical feedback neutralized by globalization. Such analyses can help generate public and decision makers’ awareness of both their dependence and their impacts on, distant natural capital stocks. This in turn should increase interest in establishing improved co-management regimes to maintain the stability and reliability of such now obligatory relationships.     

国家公园自然资本核算方法研究

在联合国千年生态系统服务评估框架的基础上,根据我国国家公园的地理位置和资源优势,设计了国家公园自然资本核算框架,以自然资源资产和生态系统服务为两大核算对象,基于已有数据,对我国国家公园体制试点自然资本进行了价值量核算。核算结果表明:在自然资源资产中,草地和森林覆盖面积普遍较高,且价值量较高;在生态系统服务中,调节服务价值量普遍偏高。研究认为,相关部门应提高人们保护草地和森林自然资源的意识,形成并强化生态环境与社会经济和谐发展的观念,最终促进我国国家公园草地、森林自然资源的健康发展。     

乡村振兴战略导向下自然资源管理创新探究

［目的］立足要素管理视角，解构乡村振兴战略理论内涵、逻辑关联及框架体系，明确自然资源管理创新的着力点、功能定位和重点任务。［方法］综合运用系统论、地理学和政策分析方法，采取“人口—资源—环境—发展”科学思维范式和“问题—目标—空间—工程—支撑—模式”逻辑主线，进行要素、结构、功能和对策分析。［结果］（1）从空间治理角度，正确处理人、地、产、钱4核心要素关系，优化重构生产空间、生态空间和生活空间是乡村振兴战略的核心任务； （2）从工程保障角度，聚力推进“产业融合提升工程”等五大重点工程是乡村振兴战略的关键抓手； （3）从要素支撑角度，充分彰显自然资源的资源、资产、资本与生态多元属性，为乡村振兴发展提供资源安全保障、产权安全保障、生态安全保障、能源安全保障是自然资源管理创新的基本功能定位。［结论］自然资源管理创新对乡村振兴战略的支撑主要体现在产业兴旺、生态宜居、生活富裕三大目标上，做好自然资源调查监测评价、推进自然资源（不动产）统一确权登记、开展生态系统整体保护与修复、制定国土空间规划体系和建立城乡一体化要素市场体系、创新差别化高效化资源分类管理模式是乡村振兴与自然资源管理协同创新的未来方向。     

武汉市南湖湿地生态系统服务功能价值评估研究

通过对南湖湿地生态系统服务功能价值进行评估研究,可对南湖湿地的保护与生态质量的提高提供一定的依据。采用资源经济学和生态经济学的理论与方法,分别对资源功能、环境功能和人文功能对南湖湿地的生态系统服务功能价值进行了评估,得出了南湖湿地的生态服务价值为623 513.79万元,且其非使用价值大于直接使用价值和间接使用价值。     

中国森林生态恢复与重建生态效益评价研究进展

通过对国内森林生态恢复与重建生态效益评价指标构建和评价方法研究文献的综合分析发现:构建评价指标主要采用层次分析法,评价方法主要是以经济学为主的计量方法和以生态学为主的计量方法。经济学的评价方法侧重于森林恢复后的显性经济效益,生态学的评价方法侧重于森林所具有的生态功能。最后,指出基于经济学和生态学理论,运用数学模型加以修正的研究方法是其未来的方向。     

PROBLEMS OF CHANGE IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

There has been a low level of methodological controversy within the Australian agricultural economics profession. Johnson's 1963 paper is the most significant and in it he passed criticisms on agricultural production economists not unlike those currently being made by political economists of economics in general. These past criticisms have in the main been ignored by the Australian profession but it is suggested that they are now being pushed with renewed vigour and they can no longer be ignored. It is argued that our policy work has by and large been successful and effective except for significant areas where our methodology was of restricted usefulness. In farm management the Johnsonian strictures would seem to apply but a more charitable interpretation is provided which should meet the approval of the political economists. Our almost complete neglect of development economics must soon draw to an end and we will find that the methodologies which we have relied on heavily and fairly successfully must be augmented as we become more involved in this field. The political economics challenge should be recognized and accepted with relish because the nature of our work is changing and will continue to change in the future. We have adapted fairly well as adjustment and equity have become major policy concerns. Meeting the political economics challenge will help this process of adaptation.     

Does China's demand boom curb Australian iron ore mining depletion?

Australia's resources boom is underpinned by increased demand from industrialising China and a rise in export prices. Current depletion rates will soon exhaust currently known reserves of iron ore and coal. This paper presents a dynamic optimisation model of a growing open economy where a social planner chooses the time path for depletion of a non‐renewable resource during a demand‐led resources boom. We find that for particular functional forms and in the absence of extraction and social costs, the optimal depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of export demand times the world interest rate and growth in export demand. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that the optimal depletion rate is unaffected by a temporary increase in price, but reduced by growth in demand which is in turn sustained by offshore steel production and urbanisation. The main theoretical implication is that growth in export demand from China reduces the depletion rate. Australian iron ore exports, simulated using this theory, move together with actual volumes over the period 1995–2011, and the error between simulated and actual iron ore exports is lower for the model in this paper than it is for the model without growth in export demand.     

试论开展矿产资源核算体系研究的重要意义

开展矿产资源核算体系研究具有重大意义:矿产资源核算体系的建立,支持着国民经济核算方法、资源核算的理论和方法、核算系统模型和综合资源政策及新发展模式等专题研究;通过矿产资源核算体系的建立合理地约束资源消耗的速度,可提高资源利用的国民经济效率;确定资源价值,进行资源核算,可从根本上解决资源利用效益问题;矿产资源核算是界定产权关系,加强矿产资源管理及开发管理是改革矿业体制的关键;资源核算为可持续发展战略的实施提供了一个崭新的视角和核算工具。     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

加强科技创新 提高农业用水生产力

随着我国人口增长和经济发展,农产品消费需求将呈刚性增长。与此同时,耕地减少、水资源短缺、气候变化等因素对农业生产的约束日益突出,特别是水资源短缺问题将成为对我国农业可持续发展的严峻挑战。提高农业用水生产力,要发展生物性节水技术,开发旱作节水技术,发展现代节水灌溉技术,解决水质性缺水问题,提高节水装备水平,加强管理制度和机制创新。     

黑龙江垦区种养业生产系统可持续发展评价

目的 黑龙江垦区作为中国农业先进生产力的代表地区,如何促进其农业可持续发展,已成为热点研究内容。方法 文章运用能值分析和敏感性分析方法,以黑龙江垦区种养业生产系统为研究对象,综合分析了2009—2018年该系统能值投入的动态变化过程,并评价该系统可持续发展水平。结果 2009—2018年黑龙江农垦种养业生产系统的能值投入呈现“增长—平稳”的趋势。2018年能值投入为11.28×10²¹ sej,不可更新的工业辅助能、可更新的环境资源是能值投入的主要来源,占能值投入总量的64.20 %。其中,单位产值能值投入量为1.47×10¹⁵ sej/万元,能值产出率为2.00,环境负载率为1.05,可持续发展指数为1.91。结论 黑龙江垦区种养业生产系统的可持续发展水平相对较高,但近年来经济效益有所下降,较为依赖工业产品投入。因此,建议黑龙江垦区开展系统性研究,建立机械化生产定位观测站,加强农机具管理与应用,优化柴油和氮肥投入量,明确种养业可持续发展路径,形成区域特色的循环农业发展模式。     

Problems and Challenges in Reforming International Agricultural Economics

Starting from the premise that the agricultural economics profession is defined primarily by the range of problems on which it works, as opposed to the initial or developmental training of the individuals, the traditional analyses base narrowly on the neoclassical paradigm are increasingly insufficient for the problems commonly found in the agri-food industry. Two areas in which the profession is particularly weak are the economics and evolution of institutions, and the human capital component in economic development. For the latter, it includes both matching training to the nature and scope of problems facing individuals and the economics of human capital development and maintenance for a viable and growing agri-food industry. As well, new areas of endeavour such as environmental sustainability and property rights associated with biotechnology offer opportunity for leadership from the profession. Finally, with increasingly complex and interdependent problems in the agri-food sector, as well as the need to integrate processes for change into the analytical tool kit of the profession, the concept of strategic linkages across disciplines and professions will need to be pursued. Without such a multidisciplinary interdisciplinary approach, professional analysis founded narrowly on the neoclassical paradigm defeats the problem solving strength the profession has nurtured     

The impact of sustainable energy production on land use in Britain through to 2050

Historically, land use in Britain has been shaped by the environment's capacity to provide energy as well as food, water and shelter. Over the next decades, energy will again become a major driver in land cover change as we seek to capture the necessary energy to replace fossil fuels, reduce environmental damage and substitute for insecure supplies. Britain was one of the first places to exploit fossil fuels extensively, initially coal, and it has the potential to generate considerable amounts of renewable energy from tides, waves, the wind, biomass and sunlight. The UK Government's policy is to develop a suite of technologies that will provide a resilient supply without compromising its economy or its international commitments to environmental protection.This paper examines the three major terrestrial options for renewable energy and assesses each by successively filtering them for feasibility, achievability and practicality incorporating existing developments, designation and public opinion. Technology and opinion are dynamic, so the outputs need to be viewed as indicative of alternative scenarios rather than as fixed forecasts. Implications for changes in the energy supply infrastructure needed to match the new supply chains are highlighted.The demand for energy depends on the demographic profile (population size, age distribution, lifestyle and expectations) and on economic activity. Here total demand is predicted using the UK Energy Research Centre's Energy 2050 model, which uses linear programming to balance economics and environmental capacity by major demand sectors in five-year time steps. The core model often generates challenging results.     

水资源循环经济问题的研究——以首都经济圈为例

文章从首都经济圈水资源环境现状出发,以循环经济学为理论基础,提出水资源循环经济发展模式,用以解决首都经济圈水资源与经济发展的矛盾。重点分析该区水资源问题及其对国民经济的影响,并阐述以经济手段为主的具体对策,旨在从根本上解决水资源问题,促进区域和谐发展。