The process of technical change in UK manufacturing

This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.     

Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies

This paper primarily examines whether the ‘hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve’ (HNKPC) holds for four important emerging economics viz., Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. This has been done after testing for the structural stability of this relationship. Econometric issues like the test of unit roots in presence of a structural break and estimation of output gap have also been done appropriately. Our findings suggest that the HNKPC is not stable for all the four countries. However, the analysis based on the two sub-periods thus formed clearly shows mixed evidence in respect of holding of this relationship.

     

Properties of Equivalence Scales in Different Countries

Recent studies in industrialized countries have shown that equivalence scales are income-dependent. We investigate whether this dependence also holds in poorer, services oriented countries, by considering the case of Cyprus. We also examine whether household economies of scale and relative children costs differ from those found for industrialized countries.     

The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis

This paper tests whether the Fisher hypothesis holds for a sample of 26 countries by assessing the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates taking into consideration the short run dynamics of interest rates. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a one-to-one relationship between the interest rate and inflation for more than half of the countries under study.     

外资流入对外贸影响的实证分析

蒙代尔认为,如果满足要素价格均等化的条件,贸易与投资具有完全替代作用,而后来的一些学者则认为资本要素的国际流动或者直接投资与商品贸易之间不仅存在替代性,而且在一定条件下存在互补关系。应该说这两种关系在不同发展阶段、不同国家、不同的条件下是表现不一的。本文主要通过近10年来我国外商投资与对外贸易的实证教据分析,侧重说明外商直接投资与对外贸易的互补关系,分析FDI流入对我国贸易的带动作用。     

Further evidence on purchasing power parity and country characteristics

Using data from 76 countries, this paper investigates the relationship between country characteristics and the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP). Several interesting results are obtained based on dollar-based exchange rates. First, PPP holds for Africa and Latin America. Further, PPP tends to be supported for countries with high or moderate openness, low growth rates, high inflation rates and high nominal exchange rate volatility, respectively. Second, a single country characteristic seems inadequate to account for the validity of PPP. Third, PPP is supported if countries satisfy at least two characteristics of supporting PPP simultaneously. Finally, the main results of the paper are robust when the numeraire currency changes from the US dollar to Japanese yen.     

Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis

This study examines causal relationships between tourism spending and economic growth in 10 transition countries for the period 1988–2011. Panel causality analysis, which accounts for dependency and heterogeneity across countries, is used herein. Our empirical results support the evidence on the direction of causality, and are consistent with the neutrality hypothesis for 3 of these 10 transition countries (i.e. Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia). The growth hypothesis holds for Cyprus, Latvia and Slovakia while reverse relationships were found for the Czech Republic and Poland. The feedback hypothesis also holds for Estonia and Hungary. Our empirical findings provide important policy implications for the 10 transition countries being studied.     

Malaria and Economic Development

Malaria tends to have a negative correlation with national income per capita. Many existing studies emphasize how falling rates of malaria can enhance economic development due to the beneficial effect on human capital. This paper emphasizes that causality may also run in the opposite direction, in particular, that higher incomes—arising for reasons having nothing to do with human capital—may allow for increased prevention and treatment of malaria, and therefore contribute to the negative correlation. We analyze the malaria‐income relationship for 100 endemic countries over a 17‐year period using a simultaneous equations model that accounts for reverse causality and incidental associations. For most countries, income growth has been the most important driver of the negative correlation between malaria and income. Although reducing malaria may be its own reward, it takes much more than reductions in malaria to foster development. This holds widely for different samples of countries.     

Unfair inequality,governance and individual beliefs

Unfair inequality arises when incentives are not fairly tied to effort or investment across the socio-economic spectrum. The actual limitations on economic activity from this failure may depend on whether people believe the system is unfair, and how well governing institutions safeguard fair-play. In this paper, I study whether unfair wealth inequality is correlated with beliefs about fairness, and whether good governance can be a substitute in belief formations for decreases in unfair inequality. I find a that people in countries with recent increases in unfair wealth inequality are less likely to believe that inequality is due to fair processes. This relationship holds when“fair” determinants of inequality include effort, as well as moral and meritocratic components. The relationship is strongest in countries with poor quality governance. In countries with high quality governance, people appear to be more tolerant of unfair inequality, as it is only weakly reflected in their beliefs about process fairness.     

Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective

Abstract. We analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid. We employ annual data and five‐year averages and carefully examine the time‐series properties of the data. Panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least‐squares (DFGLS) show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income (particularly in highly aid‐dependent countries). This holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income, as well as for different regions. We also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation). JEL classification: F35, O11, C23, C51     

Dynamics of the Relationship Between the Terms of Trade and the Trade Balance in Developing Countries of Asia,Africa and Latin America

The objectives of this study are to examine the relationship between the terms of trade and trade balance to GDP ratios for a large number of developing economies using data on barter terms of trade, real exchange rate and trade balances. The literature on the subject postulates J-curve or S-curve between terms of trade and trade balance and we examine whether there is any evidence of a J-curve or S-curve relationship in time series data over the period 1970–1999. We find that for a few economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America, the existence of a S-curve is supported. However, for a large number of countries, neither a strict J-curve nor S-curve relationship holds.

     

The Nonstationarity of Money and Prices in Interdependent Economies

In most nations, paths of monetary aggregates and prices consistently depart from stationary trends. This paper shows that this is a fundamental implication when monetary authorities of interdependent countries seek to smooth their home output and prices in the presence of incomplete world output-market integration and structural asymmetries. Using a two-country model with interdependent output supply schedules, we show that this conclusion holds whether the exchange rate floats or is fixed. It also holds if monetary policies are coordinated. Therefore, optimal monetary policy choices by central banks yield stationary paths for money and prices only under very specific conditions.     

技术学习文献综述

结合技术学习的内涵,梳理总结了国内外研究者提出的技术学习模式及相关研究成果,认为目前研究者多数关注发展中国家的技术学习及其引起的技术能力提升,而对在发达国家向发展中国家输出技术的过程中是否也发生"技术学习"以及发展中国家形成的技术能力是否能实现质的跨越则缺乏研究,并认为发展中国家在开展技术学习的过程中更应加强内部学习。     

Real and nominal effective exchange rates for developing countries: 1973:1-1997:3

The International Monetary Fund construct and publish real and nominal effective exchange rate data, mostly for developed countries. In this paper real and nominal effective rate data for developing countries are constructed. Application of the KPSS test to real effective rate data reveals that PPP holds in most countries.     

A PROTECTIONIST BIAS IN MAJORITARIAN POLITICS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Do politics affect trade policy? Despite an extensive literature examining the relationship between trade policy and some political factors, relatively few studies have explored the role of a country's electoral system, arguably one of the most fundamental characteristics of a nation's political landscape. This paper examines the empirical relationship between tariffs and electoral systems across countries and over time. The broad theoretical framework is provided by Grossman and Helpman, which predicts a bias towards a non‐zero average tariff, i.e. a “protectionist bias”, in countries with majoritarian systems, since politicians in a majoritarian system aim to maximize the welfare of their home districts, as opposed to the welfare of the nation as a whole. I compare average tariffs of countries with majoritarian systems to those with proportional systems, using methods that address the omitted variables/sample selection problem inherent to this analysis. I find that countries with majoritarian systems do indeed appear to have higher average tariffs than do countries with proportional systems. This result holds after controlling for other country‐specific characteristics, such as a country's legal origins, colonial history, and geographic location.     

Making the risk of job loss a way of life: Does it affect job satisfaction?

This study investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and job security in European countries. In doing so, it attempts to take into account the endogenous nature of the job security–job satisfaction relationship after controlling for the various economic and personal characteristics. The results show that workers in jobs with low likelihood of job termination derive higher utility from work compared to the workers in insecure jobs. This holds even after controlling for endogeneity by using both a conventional IV approach and a selection model. This appears to be the case for both men and women.     

转型中我国农业劳动力的两种转移模式——从西方经济学的两种要素配置模型引起的思考

关于如何改变发展中国家农村经济落后状况,西方经济学家提出两种不同的要素配置模型.威廉·阿瑟·刘易斯认为,发展中国家农村经济落后的主要原因是劳动力过剩,近乎无限供给,因而,改变农村经济落后的唯一途径就是把过剩的劳动力转移到城市.西奥多·舒尔茨则不同意这种观点.他认为发展中国家农村经济落后的主要原因不是劳动力过剩,而是人口质量低与劳动力以外的其他生产要素投入不足;改变农村经济落后的唯一途径就是提高人口质量和向农村输入劳动力以外的其他生产要素.与这两种模型相关联,改革开放以来我国农村劳动力转移也呈现两种不同的模式,即异地转移与就地转移.这就存在着如何评价上述两种模型与两种模式的问题.     

Testing purchasing power parity in a multivariate cointegrating framework

This paper examines a bilateral PPP(Purchasing power parity) relationship between Australia and the 11 major trading countries by means of two alternative econometric techniques-a multivariate cointegrating framework and a band-spectral regression. It is acknowledged that there is no strong evidence that classical PPP holds in all cases. However, the generalized version of PPP holds in all cases, and provides a better explanation of the long-run relations between exchange rates and relative prices.The use of different price indices, i.e CPI and WPI,lead to different estimates and hence different policy implications.     

Does FDI improve economic development in North African countries?

This article examines the relationship between FDI inflows and welfare improvement in North African countries. Using net per capita FDI inflows and the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Index as the principal variables, our analyses confirm the positive and strongly significant relationship between net FDI inflows and welfare improvement in North Africa, although we do find significant differences among the countries in the region. This relationship holds even after we control for government size, country indebtedness, macroeconomic instability, infrastructural development, institutional quality, political risk, openness to trade, education and financial market development. Hence, at the aggregate level, FDI contributes to economic growth in North Africa, in turn generating additional revenues for governments and populations in the region through fiscal policies and jobs creation. We also found that FDI received by countries in the region are mainly concentrated in very few industries (particularly extractive petroleum, services and tourism, construction and utilities); relatively fewer of these investments are directed towards the nonextractive primary industries, which are pro-poor sectors and highly labour intensive, or the manufacturing sector, with a high potential for spillover effects in the economy. This lack of diversification of FDI received in the region’s economies in part explains the differences observed in the link between FDI and welfare in these countries. It is therefore essential for governments in the region to continue investing in social infrastructures while improving the quality of their institutions and their governance; doing so will probably help avoid the type of unrest we have witnessed recently.     

Diversity and the disinterest in trade liberalization: on the prospects of self-enforcing cooperation

International economic order, including the rules of the game for trade, usually suffers from enforcement problems. We examine the prospects of self-enforcing cooperation as trade relationships evolve. It turns out that factor differentials and specificities are of utmost importance. In fact, prospects of self-enforcing cooperation are the lower the more diverse the countries are on that score. Differences may even result in countries showing an outright disinterest in trade liberalization. Notably, this result also holds in a recurrent, that is, in an evolutionary setting that otherwise induces cooperation in trade liberalization with self-enforcing properties.