Targeting the biotechnology clusters in North Carolina and Israel: lessons from successful and unsuccessful policy making

This paper analyses the development of biotechnology clusters in North Carolina (NC) and Israel. In both NC and Israel, when the biotechnology was identified as a potential strategic priority, the framework conditions were suitable for successful policy-targeting. NC presents a case of a successful transition from a traditional manufacturing economy to a knowledge economy. The most successful part of this transition was a policy-led development of a biotechnology cluster in the Research Triangle. While Israel also presents a case of a successful transition from a low-tech economy to a knowledge-intensive economy, Israel failed to develop a successful biotechnology cluster. We suggest that this failure is mostly due to a failure to implement policy to encourage such development. We argue that the elements, which separate NC's success from Israel's failure, are: a clear vision and strategic planning; timely response, long-term commitment; strong leadership; cooperation between the government, private sector and academia, and an adjustable policy-making process.     

Sequential decisions with tests

We consider a principal-agent problem where the principal wishes to be endorsed by a sequence of agents, but cannot truthfully reveal type. In the standard “herding” model, the agents learn from each other's decisions, which can lead to cascades on a given decision when later agents' private information is swamped. We augment the standard model to allow the principal to subject herself to a test designed to provide public information about her type. She must decide how tough a test to attempt from a continuum of test types, which involves trading off the higher probability of passing an easier test against the greater impact from passing a tougher test. We find that the principal will always choose to be tested, and will prefer a tough test to a neutral or easy one.     

A dynamic analysis of the differential incidence of capital and labour taxes in a two-class economy

This paper studies a differential incidence model, where a rise in a capital tax is accompanied by a change in a labour tax to hold constant the per capita government revenue, in a two-class growing economy. The major concern is to analyse the conditions necessary for the burden of such a tax substitution to fall solely, partially, or inconsequentially on capitalists or workers. The results obtained indicate that a higher rate of capital tax tends to impose a greater burden on workers.     

Mechanism design with a liquidity constrained buyer: The 2×2 case

This paper studies the implications of buyers' liquidity constraints for the optimal selling strategy. The possibility that a buyer faces a binding liquidity constraint affects the seller's strategy in a nontrivial way. Specifically, when a seller has one unit of a good to sell to a buyer with a quasilinear utility function, the `no-haggling' result indicates that textbook monopoly pricing is optimal, absent liquidity constraints. Introducing a potentially binding liquidity constraint vitiates the no-haggling result, and can make it strictly beneficial for the seller to use nonlinear pricing, to commit to a declining price sequence, or to require the buyer to post a cash bond.     

Who gets the goods? Moderate Voting Records,Diminishing Returns,and PAC Contributions

Assuming that a legislator representing a moderate constituency (with respect to a variety of interests) may be expected to vote moderately in general, the authors suggest a measure of the 'moderateness' of a legislator's voting behavior and use it to determine whether a relationship exists between PAC contributions and the degree of moderateness. The results suggest that PACs exhibit a tendency to give more, at the margin, to legislators with moderate voting records.     

How to achieve an ROI on your health care dollars

Offering employees self-care information, which encourages them to decide what to do for themselves with and without provider assistance, can be a low-cost, effective approach to health care cost management. Components of such a program may include a printed self-care guide, workshops, software and a nurse advice line. Self-care is a process, not an event and, to be effective, a self-care program needs to be reinforced by ongoing communication.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

An economic theory of leadership turnover

In an infinite-horizon stochastic model, a coup not only disciplines a dictator's policy towards a group of “kingmakers”, but also enables a kingmaker to become a dictator. Greater competition for the dictator's position, a lower impact of the dictator's policy on the kingmakers, or lower risks of staging a coup raises the benefit of a coup relative to its opportunity cost and so raises the probability of a coup. Since periodic shocks affect the efficacy of the dictator's policy, a bad enough shock makes it too costly for even talented dictators to avert a coup. More talented dictators are able to survive more negative shocks, so the worst shock in a dictator's reign is informative about the probability of a coup. Conditional on the worst shock, the probability of a coup is independent of a dictator's duration in office. The unconditional probability declines with duration.     

Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

Niche overlap and limiting similarity: an ecological approach to the theory of the firm

This paper suggests an approach, based upon an analogy with different species competing in the environment for fixed resources, to the question of why variety is such a persistent feature of free market economies. Attention is centred upon a market characterised by a group of consumers with a distribution of incomes, which leads to a continuum of demands for different output qualities. The identification of various sufficient conditions then allows the argument to proceed through a mathematical structure first outlined in the theoretical ecology literature, resulting in a precise prediction regarding the limit to similarity between firms. This results is then applied to the U.K. Supermarket industry in 1988, and is used to provide guidance to the state of competition within the industry in that year.     

Strategic visualisation tools for managing technological information

In an information economy, the effective management of a massive amount of technological information is inevitable when attempting to facilitate the decision-making process. It is an important part of selecting R&D projects and allocating budgets to promising technology development. Information visualisation is thus regarded as a critical tool in technological information management because it can provide decisive implications that the intelligence of humans cannot produce. This paper proposes six graphical forms, including a technology tree, a technology map, a technology network, a technology matrix, a technology curve, and a technology dictionary, presenting the generic form and concept of each method. Moreover, the principles and applications of such visualisation tools are suggested in order to enhance their use in practical circumstances. A case study of TFT-LCD (thin film transistor-liquid crystal display) technology will help to explain how to apply visualisation tools to strategic technology management.     

Estimating fiscal policy reaction functions: The role of model specification

The literature has not yet come to a consensus on the actual responses of fiscal policy to output and to past public debt levels within industrialized countries. While the cyclical adjustment literature has suggested a strong response of the primary surplus to the output gap, the time-series literature has tended to report a far smaller response. However, recent theoretical findings suggest that some of this difference may be due to the way in which the time-series literature has typically handled the issue of autocorrelation, in a way which is incompatible with the timing of automatic stabilizers. In order to find a way around this problem, we formulate and estimate a set of fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area, which allow for the primary surplus to feature three components: a fast-moving (stabilizing) response to the output gap, a consolidating response to the debt-GDP ratio, and an exogenous, persistent fiscal policy shifter. When we formulate a fiscal reaction function in this way, our estimates are compatible in magnitude with previous estimates from the cyclical adjustment literature. Furthermore, based on a set of model comparison exercises in line with what has been done in the monetary policy literature, we argue that our specification explains the data better than does the more commonly used specification.     

A Note on Inflation Targeting

The authors present a pedagogical graphical exposition to illustrate the stabilizing effect of price target zones. Based on a textbook AD-AS apparatus, they find that authorities' commitment to defend a price target zone will affect the public's inflation expectations and, in turn, reduce actual inflation. They also find that, when the economy experiences supply shocks, the announcement that the monetary authorities intend to defend a price target zone will reduce the variability of domestic prices but raise the variability of domestic output relative to a free-price regime. However, when the economy experiences demand shocks, a price target zone tends to lower the variability of both domestic prices and out-put relative to a free-price regime.     

Devaluation,Inflation, and the Balance of Payments: A Short-Run Monetary Approach*

In this paper a model is presented to analyze, in a monetary setting, the effects of a once-and-for-all adjustment in the exchange rate in a small economy committed to a fixed exchange-rate system. The effects of such an adjustment are shown to be transitory. After a devaluation the domestic rate of inflation accelerates in relation to the rate of inflation in the rest of the world. The increase in prices reduces the real value of the nominal stock of money and, in order to restore real liquidity to its previous level, foreign-exchange reserves start to flow into the country. However, as monetary equlibrium is reached, the flow of reserves tends to stop and the domestic rate of inflation converges to the world rate.     

弱势制造商营销渠道联盟构建——基于外贸型中小企业转型内销渠道建设的思考

外贸企业转型内销市场面临品牌弱势、营销人才缺乏、渠道模式建立困难等问题。处于弱势的外贸企业需选择合适的中间商,充分运用利益让渡提高中间商经济上的满意水平,为渠道伙伴提供优质的服务,与联盟伙伴建立良好的沟通机制实现信息共享,从而构建渠道战略联盟;通过实施区域市场深耕策略,提升在渠道联盟中的话语权,巩固渠道联盟的相互信任,提高联盟绩效,以建立稳定的区域营销网络。     

A coopetitive model for the green economy

The paper proposes a coopetitive model for the Green Economy. It addresses the issue of the climate change policy and the creation and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. In the present paper the complex construct of coopetition is applied at macroeconomic level. The model, based on Game Theory, enables us to offer a set of possible solutions in a coopetitive context, allowing to find a Pareto solution in a win–win scenario. The model, which is based on the assumption that each country produces a level of output which is determined in a non-cooperative game of Cournot-type and that considers at the same time a coopetitive strategy regarding the low technologies, will suggest a solution that shows the convenience for each country to participate actively to a program of low carbon technologies within a coopetitive framework to address a policy of climate change, thus aiming at balancing the environmental imbalances.     

择优分配最优化原理及其应用

本文讨论在资源约束条件下如何分配使产出的效果极大。从最简单的两块土地分配化肥使增产的粮食极大化开始,在边际上不断调整,得出一般约束条件下的最优化方法,即拉格朗日乘子法。此优化原理更可以推广到动态过程,借用物理学中的捷降线问题,把落差看成资源,在逐步分配落差中使旅程的时间最短,进而把动态问题一般化,推导出变分法中的欧拉方程。择优分配原理可以将拉氏乘数法和欧拉方程都解释为资源的优化配置问题,从而给出了它们的经济学意义。本方法为一基本的优化原理,有广泛的应用可能。     

Understanding Error Structures and Exploiting Panel Data in Meta-analytic Benefit Transfers

A regression meta-analysis is a statistical summary of results from a set of empirical studies. While, a meta-analysis is typically used to drawn inferences regarding the collective insights from an empirical literature, a regression meta-analysis can also be used to predict outcomes as a substitute for the conduct of a new study. Within the nonmarket-valuation literature benefit transfers are a special case of prediction where value estimates collected for one purpose are used as a basis for predicting value for unstudied applications. Balancing against the prediction opportunities provided by a regression meta-analysis is the potential prediction error. This paper considers some of these issues in the estimation of a regression meta-analysis to support prediction of nonmarket values for applications where an original study does not exist. We do not purport to address all elements of the error structure and prediction issues, but to present a more coherent focus to enhance future research on the validity and reliability of benefit-function transfers, and ultimately assist in enhancing the credibility of benefit transfers to support policy analyses.     

An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data

This article proposes empirical tools to account for the role of heterogeneities in the labour matching process, and shows an application to the Andalusian labour market which relies on individual data. The central idea of the paper is that the labour market is segmented, and this segmentation can be treated empirically by grouping workers, jobs and matches into labour groups according to their characteristics. In a segmented labour market the probability that a match occurs in a particular job group affects the probability that a match occurs in a particular worker group or vice versa. We propose two empirical measures related to this idea: propensity to match, and segmentation in worker and job groups. The usefulness of this empirical framework is shown by its application to different labour market analyses. Firstly, we use a clustering methodology, based on a similarity measure, to obtain a better overview of the structure of the labour market. Secondly, we propose a measure of mobility based on our similarity measure, and estimate a regression model that relates mobility to worker and job characteristics and to the economic cycle. Finally, these tools are included in an unemployment duration model. The proposed methodology may be useful in labour intermediation by helping seekers to follow a ‘roadmap’ of successful paths.     

Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: Modeling and policy implications

The prevailing models explaining how technologies develop along a specific trajectory largely focus on the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism—beyond those of the market and of technology—needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out.