DESIRABILITY AND SEQUENCE OF LIBERALIZATION AND STRUCTURAL REFORM POLICIES IN A MODEL WITH INFORMAL SECTOR

The paper develops a three-sector general equilibrium model with informal sector and examines the welfare effects of liberalization and structural reform in the presence of labor and capital market distortions. It attempts to determine a credible sequence of reforms that may be the most welfare-enhancing, since implementation of reforms in all the markets at a single stage may be neither feasible nor optimal. Foreign capital is welfare-improving only in the presence of labor market distortion, while welfare deteriorates if the capital market is distorted. While tariff and capital market reforms may be welfare-enhancing in the absence of labor market distortion, labor market reform may intensify the formal-informal wage gap and have a worsening effect on welfare in the presence of tariff distortion and capital market imperfection. One of the plausible sequences of reforms may be to initially undertake tariff reform followed by capital and labor market reforms, respectively.     

市场信息效率的提高会改善资源配置效率吗?——基于R2的研究视角

本文承袭Wurlger(2000)的资源配置效率估算模型,以我国2001~2005年上市公司为研究对象,考察市场信息效率与资源配置效率之间的因果承接关系。在以股价波动同步性作为市场信息效率衡量指标的基础上,研究发现,随着市场信息效率的提高,资本更快地实现由低效率领域向高效率领域的转移,资源配置效率得以有效改善。     

资本市场开放对股票定价效率的影响——基于沪港通政策的实证分析

以沪港通政策实施为现实背景，选定2012年11月至2016年11月为研究区间，构造股价信息充分性、股价信息准确性和股价对信息的反应速度三项定价效率核心指标，采用双重差分模型实证检验沪港通政策对我国沪市A股定价效率的影响。研究发现，沪港通政策的推出有助于提高我国沪市A股的股价信息充分性、准确性和股价对信息的反应速度，且对国有企业、高股权制衡度企业、高换手率企业的股票定价效率提高更显著。进一步对比发现,资金双向流动交易机制对沪市A股定价效率的影响具有差异性。因此，应有序扩大沪股通、港股通标的股票范围，不断完善资金双向流动机制，提高股票流动性，加速境内外资本市场接轨。     

人文资本特征、居民支付意愿与住宅价格

在构建人文资本与住宅意愿支付价格关系模型的基础上,运用2006年天津市有关数据,研究了人文资本特征对住宅价格的影响,并对人文资本特征溢价值进行了测算。对天津市的实证分析表明,人文资本密度指标中,只有居民素质、物业服务质量、小区周边体育场的距离对住宅总价有一定的影响,但并不显著。这说明人们对人文资本特征的偏好非常弱,天津市居民的住宅需求还处于基本需求阶段,尚未大规模进入改善需求阶段。以上结论对正确认识消费者偏好、公共投资效应、城市规划状况及住宅价格的合理性,具有重要的参考价值。     

房屋拆迁会刺激家庭的金融市场参与吗？——一个心理账户的分析视角

在心理账户的作用下,拆迁补偿款的发放使得家庭更加倾向于参与金融市场投资,因此房屋拆迁将会显著提高家庭的金融市场参与度。对此,基于中国家庭金融调查（CHIP2013）和中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS2018）数据,运用工具变量法,实证检验了房屋拆迁对家庭金融市场参与的影响,结果表明,房屋拆迁会在一定程度上促进家庭的金融市场参与,且这一效果在消费支出少和金融资产余额多的家庭中更加显著。同时,中介效应检验结果发现,在房屋拆迁促进家庭金融市场参与的过程中,家庭可支配收入发挥了部分中介作用。这意味着,在房屋拆迁补偿中,不仅拆迁户应该警惕过度参与金融市场的非理性行为,而且政府和金融机构也应该组织和提供不同形式的金融教育,提高拆迁户的金融素养,从而预防拆迁返贫的悲剧。     

基于股利贴现模型的现金股利和股票股利对股票市价的影响研究

从股利贴现模型出发,分析了在完善的资本市场条件下,现金股利和股票股利对股票市价的不同影响,通过严格计算比较了这两种股票发放形式对股票市价的影响效果,并用已有的实证研究结果对结论进行了验证。最后,简单讨论了由于实际市场的不完善性而对模型计算所得结果的修正。     

中国股票市场有效性研究的文献综述

近年对我国股市有效性研究结论有:没有达到弱式有效;已达到弱式有效但没有达到半强式有效;有效性不断提高;具有显著的市值效应、帐面市值比效应、市盈率效应和价格效应。结论不同可能由于研究方法不同,或采用数据样本不同,或研究角度不同。这造成结论之间不可辨真伪、不可对比性,使结论可靠性下降。但是综合考虑有关我国股票市场有效性文献的结论及我国股市现实状况,可以得出结论是我国股票市场有效性不断提高但没有达到弱式有效。     

The timing of residential land development: A general equilibrium approach

A formal model of the development process is constructed in order to arrive at a better understanding of the land development process, the change in land prices over time, and the effects of public policy on these variables. The relationship between the rate of interest and the rate of price appreciation on land is shown to depend upon development costs, agricultural opportunity costs, market structure, and the level of Ricardian rents on land. The effects of a land tax and a capital gains tax on the rate of development are also analyzed.     

Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations?

Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations? This study addresses this question from the perspective of equilibrium determinacy. In the model we use, prices are sticky and the working capital of firms is subject to asset values because of a lack of commitment. If credit market imperfections exist to a small degree, the Taylor principle is a necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium determinacy, and monetary policy response to asset price fluctuations is good from the perspective of equilibrium determinacy. However, if credit market imperfections exist to a large degree such that the collateral constraint is binding, then the Taylor principle no longer guarantees equilibrium determinacy, and monetary policy response to asset price fluctuations becomes a source of equilibrium indeterminacy. We find that the existence of credit market imperfections makes it unsuitable to initiate a monetary policy response to deal with asset price fluctuations. We also find that reductions in credit market imperfections can enlarge the indeterminacy region of the model parameters.     

The firm's insurance decision. Some questions raised by the capital asset pricing model

Using the capital asset pricing model it is shown that the firm will be indifferent towards insurance against specific risks. Insurance against systematic risks involves a transfer of these non-diversifiable risks from the firm to the insurance company, and will thus only be available at a price which reflects the ‘market price of risk’. Again the firm will be indifferent towards insurance. This then leads to the investigation of alternative motivations for a firm purchasing insurance — the costs of financial distress, human capital considerations, asymmetry of information and tax laws.     

Should we worry about the decline of the public corporation? A brief survey of the economics and external effects of the stock market

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to continue. The leading economic role of the stock market’s primary market, in which firms raise capital by issuing new shares, is to help growing firms secure financing. We discuss providing and certifying information, coordinating investors, and easing the redeployment of capital as the means through which capital allocation can be efficiently achieved. The main economic roles of the stock market’s secondary market, the trade in existing shares, is to provide liquidity to shareholders, to aid in price discovery and to provide diversification opportunities. Positive external effects from an active stock market may arise for consumers, labor and private firms due to increased corporate investment, more socially responsible business strategies and a more positive business climate. Negative external effects on capital allocation and productivity can arise from short-termism, market mispricing, and increased cross-ownership. Local stock markets can spur innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) and reduce the risk of early cross-border acquisitions. Given the myriad of useful economic functions the stock market performs, a future entirely absent of public companies is difficult to imagine and the decline is therefore likely at some point to come to an end. Whether we need to worry about the decline depends on the relative importance of the positive and negative external effects, a topic we feel warrants more research.     

A dynamic analysis of moving average rules

The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type used in practice. In this paper, we propose a dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets has both a fundamentalist and a chartist component. The chartist demand is governed by the difference between current price and a (long-run) MA. Both types of traders are boundedly rational in the sense that, based on a fitness measure such as realized capital gains, traders switch from a strategy with low fitness to the one with high fitness. We characterize the stability and bifurcation properties of the underlying deterministic model via the reaction coefficient of the fundamentalists, the extrapolation rate of the chartists and the lag length used for the MA. By increasing the intensity of choice to switching strategies, we then examine various rational routes to randomness for different MA rules. The price dynamics of the MA rule are also examined and one of our main findings is that an increase of the window length of the MA rule can destabilize an otherwise stable system, leading to more complicated, even chaotic behaviour. The analysis of the corresponding stochastic model is able to explain various market price phenomena, including temporary bubbles, sudden market crashes, price resistance and price switching between different levels.     

Itchy feet vs cool heads: Flow of funds in an agent-based financial market

Investors tend to move funds when they are unhappy with their current portfolio managers׳ performance. We study the effect of the size of this flow of funds in an agent-based model of the financial market. The model combines the discrete choice approach from agent-based modelling, where all capital is mobile, with the evolutionary finance framework where all growth is endogenous. Our results show that, if investors exhibit recency bias in evaluating portfolio managers׳ performance, even a small amount of freely flowing capital has a huge impact on the market dynamics and the survival of noise traders. We also find that investors׳ intensity of choice is a driving force for excess volatility and extreme price movements when the size of the flow of funds is large.     

Structural change accounting with labor market distortions

This paper quantifies the relative importance of sectoral productivity and labor market distortions for structural change in the U.S., India, Mexico and Brazil between 1960 and 2005. I use census data to compute human capital by sector and infer labor market distortions as sectoral gaps in wage per unit of human capital. I incorporate these distortions into a model of structural change, and calibrate the model to reproduce the time paths of sectoral shares of labor and value added for each country. Counterfactuals reveal that (1) TFP growth in agriculture drives most of the decline in its share of labor; (2) the role of labor market distortions is limited.     

货币供应量对我国房地产市场的溢出效应——基于DSGE模型的仿真分析

随着房地产市场与资本市场以及实体经济的关联度愈发紧密,探究货币供应量对房地产市场的溢出效应对于未来提高货币政策传导效率、促进经济平稳运行有着现实意义。通过构建包含房地产中间厂商的DSGE模型,探求货币供应量对房地产市场的影响机制与影响程度,为此在模型中引入货币冲击的外生冲击变量,以更好地模拟现实经济运行机制。仿真分析结果发现,货币供应量不直接影响房地产市场,主要通过利率水平下降与物价水平上升等传导路径对房地产市场产生正向冲击,并且这一间接影响期限短、程度深。为了促进房地产市场的健康发展,以研究结论为现实指导,从控制货币供应量、开发多样化金融产品和加强境外资金流入管理三方面提出针对房地产市场的监管策略。     

Price effects of steel commodities on worldwide stock market returns

We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.     

Product–market flexibility and capital structure

Many companies have the ability to adjust their product's price and/or quantity in response to changes in the marketplace. We show that this product–market flexibility or market power, hitherto ignored in the contingent-claim modeling literature, can potentially have a significant effect on the corporate capital structure decision. When the firm is operating at full capacity, product–market flexibility is not important, hence market power has a negligible effect on optimal capital structure. However, when operating below capacity, product–market flexibility becomes important and market power has, in general, a positive effect on optimal debt level and optimal leverage ratio. This is consistent with available empirical evidence. Numerical results indicate that the effect of product–market flexibility on optimal debt level and optimal leverage ratio can potentially be large enough to be economically significant, hence it should not be ignored as a determinant of capital structure.     

Autocorrelation of the trade process: Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange

This study investigates how duration-based trading intensity modifies the first-order autocorrelation and the transitory variance of the trade process. Because prices are conditional expected values, a structural model in which the trade duration represents the rate at which prices incorporate new information is developed. This refined model is an extension of the one developed by Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) and allows parameters characterizing the arrival rate of new information to be derived. Testing this model with data from the Helsinki Stock Exchange, I was able to determine that a model ignoring trading intensity effects on price changes would underestimate the transitory effects of the trade process. This finding suggests that trade duration captures neglected elements of implicit trading costs that increase with market microstructure effects.     

基于市盈率修正的非上市公司国有股权定价模型研究

外资并购国有企业对我国国有企业改革和资本市场的发展具有重要的推动作用,合理确定国有股的转让价是外资并购中的核心问题,它将直接影响到外资并购的成功与否。基于市盈率修正的非上市公司国有股权定价模型,根据恰当的指标采用德尔菲法选取上市公司作为参照公司,将非流通股和流通股区别定价,采用加权法确定上市公司合理市盈率,解决了直接利用流通股市盈率估价非流通股存在的市盈率易被高估的问题,完善了传统的股权定价理论,对非上市公司国有股权定价具有很好的指导作用。     

Structural analysis and forecast of gold price returns

Gold has multiple attributes and its price is affected by various factors in the market. This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the gold price returns and its affecting factors. Then we use the STL-ETS, neural network and Bayesian structural time series model to predict the gold price returns, and compare their performance with the benchmark models. The results show that the shocks of crude oil returns and VIX have the positive effect on gold price returns, the shocks of the US dollar index have the negative effect on gold price returns. And the fluctuation of gold price returns mainly depends on crude oil price returns shocks. STL-ETS model can accurately fit the fluctuation trend of the gold price returns and improve prediction accuracy.