Alternative Assumptions to Identify LATE in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs

There exist two alternative assumptions to identify local average treatment effects (LATE) in fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs: local independence (LI) and local smoothness (LS). Together with the usual LATE assumptions requiring existence of a first‐stage and treatment monotonicity, either of these two assumptions is sufficient to identify RD LATE. I discuss the practical (and testable) implications of these alternative assumptions, and show that weakening LI by LS might be empirically relevant. However, when LI does hold, there are some practical implications one may explore. Numerical and empirical examples are briefly presented.     

Distribution conventionality in the movie sector: an econometric analysis of cinema supply

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of several factors on a ‘conventionality index (CI)’ in the specific context of the cinema exhibition sector. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a standard CI has been constructed for this purpose. Econometric analysis of the determinants of variation in this index provides decision‐makers with an empirical focus for analyzing distributional aspects of the movie exhibition market, with particular emphasis on product differentiation. Specifically, (i) do cinemas based in a city area have a different or ‘specialized’ focus in contrast to cinemas in small towns? or (ii) do multiplexes have a different or more specialized focus in comparison with cinemas? To this end, cross‐sectional econometric models are estimated to help analyze these effects in three Italian regions for a sample of cinemas covering the 2006 season. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new approach to assess the performance of the Brazilian National Immunization Program (NIP)

The present study develops an alternative measure of efficiency to assess the Brazilian National Immunization Program (NIP) using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), an output-oriented variable returns to scale (VRS) model, to combine different homogeneity indicators within a unique composite index and evaluate the socio-demographic differences among states. The new DEA index allows homogeneity indicators to be measured for various vaccines in the same model, which enables the development of a composite index for “the first year of life” immunization cycle. In Brazil 2010, the mean efficiency score for the 26 states was 0.89 (0.14 SD). Eleven states were considered efficient, and eight of them were located in regions with a high Human Development Index (HDI) and small rural population, which reinforces the concept that regional and socioeconomic differences must be considered during immunization planning. To reach the frontier of best practice, each state should have an individual and attainable goal for vaccine homogeneity.     

沪深300股指期货在现货交易和非交易时段交易特征的比较研究

我国沪深300股指期货交易2010年4月16日正式推出,但沪深300股指期货市场与沪深300现货市场的交易时间存在显著的差异,即相对于股票现货市场,沪深300股指期货市场提前15分钟开盘,延迟15分钟收盘。运用日内分笔数据和分钟数据,对沪深300股指期货不同交易时段的交易特征进行比较。研究表明,不同交易时段知情交易者市场参与度存在明显差异,提前交易时段知情交易的概率最高,现货交易时段次之,延迟交易时段最低;沪深300股指期货在开盘时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,特别是开盘的第一笔交易包含有大量的私有信息,价格贡献最大;提前交易时段私有信息的价格发现贡献度最高;尽管提前交易时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,但定价效率较低。     

Convergence of Prices and Rates of Inflation*

We consider how unit‐root and stationarity tests can be used to study the convergence of prices and rates of inflation. We show how the joint use of these tests in levels and first differences allows the researcher to distinguish between series that are converging and series that have already converged, and we set out a strategy to establish whether convergence occurs in relative prices or just in rates of inflation. Special attention is paid to the issue of whether a mean should be extracted in carrying out tests in first differences and whether there is an advantage to adopting a (Dickey–Fuller) unit‐root test based on deviations from the last observation. The asymptotic distribution of this last test statistic is given and Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the test yields considerable power gains for highly persistent autoregressive processes with ‘relatively large’ initial conditions. The tests are applied to the monthly series of the consumer price index in the Italian regional capitals over the period 1970–2003.     

A general approach to intertemporal and interspatial productivity comparisons

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a general methodology for analysing the sources of intertemporal or interspatial differences in outputs and costs, general in the sense that our methodology allows the productivity analyst to ‘break out’ of the quadratic ‘straightjacket’ imposed by the class of superlative index number comparisons. Starting fromTaylor's series expansions about the two points to be compared, we develop a general growth accounting equation which can be approximated to any desired degree of accuracy, depending on the information available.The theoretical framework is applied to two recent examples of interspatial comparisons which use the Tornqvist superlative index. In the first example, we show that the biases in regional Canadian total manufacturing cost-efficiency comparisons which result from the use of this index are negligible. However, in the second example, it is shown that the Tornqvist index imparts a substantial bias in United States-Japan total domestic economy productivity comparisons. The index consistently overestimates the relative productivitylevel of the U.S. economy and misses the turning point, when the Japanese economy becomes more efficient, by two years.     

Measuring underlying economic activity

Recently, interest in the methodology of constructing coincident economic indicators has been revived by the work of Stock and Watson (1989b). They adopt the framework of the state space form and Kalman filter in which to construct an optimal estimate of an unobserved component. This is interpreted as corresponding to underlying economic activity derived from a set of observed indicator variables. In this paper we apply the Stock and Watson approach to the UK where the observed indicator variables are those that make up the Central Statistical Office (CSO) coincident indicator. The time series properties of the indicator variables are examined and three of the five variables are first difference stationary and are cointegrated, the remaining two are stationary in levels. We then construct two alternative measures of economic activity, each of which deals with the different orders of stationarity of the variables. The first uses the levels of the observed component variables that allows for the cointegrating relationship. The second imposes stationarity on the I(1) variables before the estimation by taking first differences. The levels index is viewed as the preferred specification as it allows for the long-run relationships between the variables and has a superior statistical fit. ©1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于witness的信息共享弱化牛鞭效应效果研究

该文依据平滑预测法构建了五阶供应链模型,利用witness软件进行仿真实验,比较信息共享前后供应链上各级成员的订单及库存变化。作者首次运用实验证明,在订货提前期一定,需求预测方法、安全库存不变的情况下,信息共享能有效弱化牛鞭效应,并使库存更加平稳,降低库存成本。同时该文比较详细地介绍了witness建模的详细设计,为其他同行建模提供参考。     

Expected Precision of Estimation and Probability of Ruling Out a Hypothesis Based on a Confidence Interval

Interval estimation is an important objective of most experimental and observational studies. Knowing at the design stage of the study how wide the confidence interval (CI) is expected to be and where its limits are expected to fall can be very informative. Asymptotic distribution of the confidence limits can also be used to answer complex questions of power analysis by computing power as probability that a CI will exclude a given parameter value. The CI‐based approach to power and methods of calculating the expected size and location of asymptotic CIs as a measure of expected precision of estimation are reviewed in the present paper. The theory is illustrated with commonly used estimators, including unadjusted risk differences, odds ratios and rate ratios, as well as more complex estimators based on multivariable linear, logistic and Cox regression models. It is noted that in applications with the non‐linear models, some care must be exercised when selecting the appropriate variance expression. In particular, the well‐known ‘short‐cut’ variance formula for the Cox model can be very inaccurate under unequal allocation of subjects to comparison groups. A more accurate expression is derived analytically and validated in simulations. Applications with ‘exact’ CIs are also considered.     

Index Based Regional Analysis: The Case of the Former Soviet Union and Russia

This paper presents a methodology for analysing inter-regional differences and identifying a suitable combination of policies for a set of regions. The methodology is based on the development of a composite index and is applied to compare (i) the members of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and (ii) the regions of Russia. All variables considered and incorporated in the relevant index are (1) scaled from 0–100, so that the index is independent of units of measurement, and (2) weighted using survey results. According to the adapted regional development index Lithuania is on the top of the ranking followed by Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Russia, Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The FSU countries are positioned on a regional development index – per capita income mapping to investigate whether emphasis should be placed on regional, environmental or sustainable development policies. Finally, an index that incorporates various socioeconomic components is computed for the regions of Russia which are subsequently classified based on the value of this index. This classification shows that the regions with the best index values are in the Central–Southern part of the country (with the exception of Sackha Republic, which is in the West). The regions with the lower index values are in the Western part of the country and in parts of Central Russia (Mariel republic, Moldovia Republic, Perm region).     

An Almost Ideal Cost of Living Index for Food in Spain Using a Microeconomic Approach and Censored Data

Abstract

A true cost of living (COL) index should compare the cost derived by two consumption levels and two price vectors maintaining the same utility in the two cases. Its application and empirical testing has been, generally, focalized on a temporal perspective. A spatial perspective it is also interesting for economic analysis because it allows for making comparisons of COLs across geographical units. This spatial approach, however, it is not so frequent in the literature. The aim of this paper is to calculate a spatial COL index for the regions of Spain. For this purpose, we use microdata from the 2010 Households Budget Survey (HBS, Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares) provided by the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística). We will denominate this index spatial cost of living index (SCOL). We use a microeconomic approach that keeps the level of utility of households constant across space but allows for substitution among different baskets of goods. The results reveal large differences in COL across the Spanish regions. The estimates of the SCOL index allows for reconsidering regional comparisons in terms of average wages. Even when nominal monetary figures from official Regional Accounts show huge regional disparities, regional differences are largely moderated when the wage figures are corrected by our SCOL index.     

Proportionally adjusted marginal pricing method to share joint costs

We consider the cost sharing problem with divisible demands of heterogeneous goods. We propose a cost sharing method called Proportionally Adjusted Marginal Pricing (PAMP) method. PAMP is a nonadditive (in the cost function) extension of average cost pricing. We introduce an axiom called Local Independence (LI) and use LI together with Continuity, Proportionality, and Scale Invariance to characterize PAMP. Received: 23 March 2001 / Accepted: 16 November 2001 I thank Yves Sprumont, Hervé Moulin, and Ahmet Alkan for discussions, comments and suggestions. Thanks also go to the associate editor and the referees, whose comments and suggestions greatly improve the paper.     

Sustainable Development and Corporate Financial Performance: A Study Based on the FTSE4Good IBEX Index

The social and environmental aspects of business investment and financing are becoming increasingly important. Most studies on corporate social responsibility (CSR) focus on analysing the relationship between company performance in the financial and social fields. However, the results obtained have not been conclusive, mainly due to the variables used to measure CSR. In order to simplify its measurement, in this work we used an empirical analytical method to determine possible differences between the financial variables of firms considered to be socially responsible and those not considered to be such. The results obtained show that socially responsible corporations obtain higher profits for the same level of systematic risk and show greater sensitivity to market changes, leverage levels and company size. This pioneering study is the first to make use of the first, and at the present time only, Spanish sustainability index, the FTSE4Good IBEX. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Robust inference concerning recent trends in US environmental quality

Understanding trends in environmental quality is important for individuals and policymakers. Typically, trends in environmental quality are determined solely through comparisons of unconditional or conditional mean pollution levels. However, reaching unambiguous conclusions on the basis of only the first moment of the (unconditional or conditional) distribution is problematic since it ignores what is occurring in different regions of the distribution. Even relying on indices that incorporate both mean and variance is suspect to the extent that relative rankings are not typically robust to index choice. Addressing these concerns, we adapt recent developments in the stochastic dominance literature to test for unambiguous relations between current and past distributions of toxic releases. Using EPA data from 1988–1999, we find statistically significant evidence that the unconditional 1999 distributions of air, land, underground and total toxic releases dominate in a first‐degree sense their respective 1988 distributions. While some of this improvement is explained by economic growth, pollution net‐of‐income improved over the sample period as well. Finally, we document robust differences in the distribution of pollution across regions in the US. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical infrastructure location under supporting station dependencies considerations

This paper develops a framework to locate critical infrastructure (CI) facilities to most fully capitalize on the supporting stations (SSs) they depend on for normal operation. CI facilities include health services, transportation and electricity; agencies that impact the national economy, security and the public's health and wellbeing. SSs are facilities that provide essential services for the regular operation of a CI. For instance, the power service, communication services and water supply services are SSs for Hospitals. In this paper SSs are independent from the CIs that they service and have a heterogeneous probability of failure that will cripple the dependent CI. The proposed framework ranks the SS according to its cost of providing service such that the rank-1 SS is the primary service provider and incorporates the probability of failure for the SS. The CI will be served from secondary SS if the primary fails due to a disaster. This formulation insures the continuous service to the CI from SS and determines both the optimal location of the CI and the optimal number of demands served. A mixed integer linear programming approach is applied to develop a Reliable Facility Location Problem considering Supporting Stations (RFLP-SS) to identify the optimal location to build a critical facility. In addition to that, The RFLP-SS determines the capacity of the optimally located facility and its allocated demands. This research highlights the importance of considering dependencies among the SSs that service CI. The paper presents a case study in Puerto Rico to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. The case study investigates the status of health services in Puerto Rico, and identifies the optimal locations to establish new hospitals. The paper recommends 11 locations for new hospitals so that the people of Puerto Rico will be better served than they are currently.     

Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors

This paper examines the dynamic spillover interconnectedness of G7 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets. We use the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), the time-varying parameters vector-autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, and the quantile regression approach. The result show that REITs network connectedness is dynamic and experiences an abrupt increase in the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak (2020Q1). We also observe a substantial abrupt decrease in connectedness during the success of vaccination programs (end 2021). The connectedness among assets is much stronger during COVID-19 than before. The REITs of Japan and Italy are net receivers of spillover and those of US and UK are net transmitters of spillovers before and during COVID-19. Conversely, the REIT of Canada and Germany (France) switches from net receivers (contributors) of spillovers before the pandemic to net contributors (receivers) during the COVID-19. Finally, we show that News Sentiment index, Geopolitical Risk index, Economic Policy Uncertainty index, US Treasury yield, and Stock Volatility index influence the spillover magnitude across quantiles.     

Constructing an index for comparing human resources management sustainability in Europe

Assuming that a company's institutional context influences its sustainability approach and its human resources management (HRM), this article compares firms' sustainable HRM systems across countries. Despite the presence of a supranational government, different social models exist in Europe according to the level of social protection in each country. The article compares the engagement of companies with sustainable HRM across Europe and develops an index with which to compare HRM sustainability in countries that present significant institutional differences: Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The index is constructed based on a formative measurement model, which reflects the implementation levels of sustainable HRM in 106 western European firms. The index reveals significant differences between companies from the four countries and between liberal and coordinated market economies, indicating the need to address the impact of the national institutional context on firms' HRM sustainability.     

The limits of institutional isomorphism in the design of e-recruitment websites: a comparative analysis of the USA and Spain

The purpose of this study is to run a comparative analysis of the recruitment websites of the largest national companies of two different countries, Spain (companies within the IBEX 35 stock market index) and the USA (companies within the Dow Jones stock market index). Using an e-recruiting taxonomy of best practices with 27 attributes, we test the extent to which the selection of specific functionalities reflects different types of isomorphic relations due to socio-economic, technological or cultural forces. Our results show that (i) there is a high level of homogeneity within the two groups as regards the selection of e-recruitment attributes included in their websites and (ii) there are significant differences between DJIA and IBEX 35 e-recruitment attributes, showing low levels of alikeness among their websites. Results are discussed in terms of the institutional forces that may drive companies toward isomorphism in the design of their e-recruitment attributes and content.     

长三角地区居民消费结构及水平的统计分析

应用因子分析和聚类分析的方法，对2006年长三角16座城市居民的消费结构、消费水平进行分析和比较。结果表明，长三角16城市在居民可持续消费能力上存在差距，在居民消费结构和消费水平上可分为五类，其中上海、杭州的消费水平最高。文章还对如何提高居民消费水平，促进经济协调发展提出了对策。     

Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement

We use a large scanner price dataset to study grocery price dynamics. Previous analyses based on store scanner data emphasize differences in price dynamics across products. However, we also document large differences in price movements across different grocery store chains. A variance decomposition indicates that characteristics at the level of the chains (as opposed to individual stores) explain a large fraction of the total variation in price dynamics. Thus, retailer characteristics are found to be crucial determinants of heterogeneity in pricing dynamics, in addition to product characteristics. We empirically explore how the price dynamics we document affect price index measures.