Trade Wars: The Exaggerated Impact of Trade in Economic Debate

The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the centre of controversy as globalisation has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labour market – either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings demanding global labour standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labour market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on the labour market. Other aspects of globalisation – immigration, capital flows and technology transfer – have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labour standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labour standards create a ‘race to the bottom’.     

我国贸易战略选择与“贫困化增长”

本文对“贫困化增长”的涵义和模型进行论述,从“贫困化增长”的前提条件、贸易条件以及国际竞争力角度论证了我国的出口贸易中劳动密集型产品的扩张可能导致“贫困化增长”,并分析其原因。从扶植战略性产业、改造传统产业、引进优质FDI三方面探讨了我国如何把比较优势转化为竞争优势,以规避“贫困化增长”。     

国际贸易成本、制度环境与 FDI 区位分布--来自120个城市的经验证据

本文使用世界银行的城市数据定量比较了国际贸易成本与产权保护水平、契约执行效率和政府干预程度等制度环境对FDI区位分布的影响。研究发现,外企高度依赖国际市场,国际贸易成本显著影响了FDI区位分布;融资的便利和母国政府的支持,推行纵向一体化导致其产业链有闭合趋势等因素,使外企对当地制度环境并不敏感。本文分析表明有必要进行全国性运输改革,以提升中西部内陆地区对FDI的吸引力。     

Myth,Sin and Redemption in Capital Account Liberalisation

The Fund's argument that capital account liberalisation in developing countries might appeal for justification to the recognised gains from free trade in goods and services was seriously undermined by the Asian financial crisis. Perhaps the most remarkable critique in view of his pre‐eminence in the development of international trade theory and policy was a short paper by Jagdish Bhagwati in which the Fund's parallel was described as a ‘myth’. Taking up the argument he advanced, this article explores further the underlying weakness of the Fund's case. Jagdish emphasised the discrepancy between the nebulous long‐term benefits from capital flow liberalisation and the painful consequences of the crises that they had recently occasioned. The relevance of the ‘original sin’ hypothesis in determining the magnitude of these costs is therefore discussed here with attention drawn to country inability to borrow readily in their own currencies as a reason for their acute exposure to exchange rate speculation. ‘Redemption’ for borrowers is then sought through an identification of sources of genuine comparative advantage in financial trade. Net flows of finance are not required for the realisation of these gains and a final section argues that there should be no presumption that net transfers improve welfare – just as Jagdish claimed.     

跨国公司国际贸易与国际直接投资的协调与选择

国际直接投资和国际贸易是跨国公司参与国际市场活动的主要方式。国际直接投资和国际贸易既存在互替效应也存在互补效应。在一个不完全竞争市场上,跨国公司在其国际化生产经营活动过程中,如何选择和协调其生产活动,是选择出口贸易,还是选择国际直接投资,它要考虑的因素是多方面的,也是动态的,体现一种综合的协调和选择效应。     

Firm-level export duration: The importance of market-specific ownership linkages

This paper explores the impact of a firm's market-specific ownership linkages and trade complementarities on different dimensions of its exporting longevity. Unlike previous studies that were mostly based on country-product-level data, this paper uses transaction-level trade data on the population of firms in Slovenia in the 2002–11 period, matched with detailed origin/direction of inward/outward FDI information to determine a firm's integration in international production networks. Our results indicate that firm's bilateral inward and outward FDI flows with an export-destination country have a strong positive effect on a firm's export survival in that market. Importance of market-specific ownership linkages for export duration is exclusively driven by intermediate goods which suggests prolonged export duration through production network involvement. However, the perseverance effect of bilateral FDI ties on export spells has been weakened during the crisis period. We find pronounced market- and product-related trade complementarities as either exporting or importing experience with the relevant market/product substantially improves the chances of a product–market export spell continuing. Finally, the risk of exports termination is lower for a firm's core export products.     

Speed Intensity and the Rise of the Chinese Economies

Producers of speed‐intensive goods, e.g. clothing or electronics, face markets that are in constant flux due to changing fashion or technology. Throughout the twentieth century, Chinese business networks have had a comparative advantage in producing speed‐intensive goods due to their quick reaction time. This comparative advantage was of relatively little value prior to the Second World War, but since the war, international telephone and air services have made international trade in speed‐intensive goods practical. This has caused the demand for speed‐intensive goods on the international market to grow at an extremely rapid pace. This growth in demand can explain the post‐Second World War economic booms experienced by Hong Kong, Taiwan and finally China.     

The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment

Evidence on international capital flows suggests that foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than other financial flows. To explain this finding I model international capital flows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of financial contracts and inalienability of FDI. Imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous financing constraints and the pricing of default risk. Inalienability implies that it is not as advantageous to expropriate FDI relative to other flows. These features combine to give a risk sharing advantage to FDI over other capital flows. This risk sharing advantage of FDI translates into a lower default premium and lower sensitivity to changes in a country’s financing constraint.The model offers the new implication that financially constrained countries should borrow relatively more through FDI. This is because FDI is harder to expropriate and not because FDI is more productive or less volatile. Using several creditworthiness and country risk ratings to measure financing constraints, I present new evidence linking FDI and financing constraints. Moreover, numerical simulations of the model generate stronger serial correlation for FDI than for other flows into developing countries. This corroborates the view that non-FDI flows are more short-term and more likely to change direction.     

国内外市场潜力对FDI区位选择的影响研究

本文运用1996-2008年全国276个地级及以上城市和39个我国主要贸易伙伴的面板数据,通过估计固定效应模型,研究了我国城市面对的市场潜力对在华FDI区位选择的影响。为了估计各种市场潜力对FDI流量的不同影响,将市场潜力分为国内和国外市场潜力,并且将国内市场潜力分为省内和省外市场潜力。本文发现一个城市面对的国内市场潜力和国外市场潜力都对该城市吸收FDI具有显著的促进作用,而前者对FDI流量的影响更大。另外,一个城市面对的来自本省的市场潜力将正向影响该城市吸收外资,但来自外省的市场潜力却对该城市的FDI流入无显著影响,这反映了我国国内市场存在分割。     

服务贸易竞争力的初步研究

服务贸易包括跨境支付、境外消费、商业存在以及自然人流动四个模式。通过对服务贸易竞争力相关基础理论的梳理,重点从比较优势与竞争优势角度将服务贸易与传统贸易的比较优势与竞争优势进行比较,运用了巴拉萨显示性比较优势指数、贸易重叠指数、比较优势指数、国际市场占有率等指标分析。     

International trade in financial services

International trade in financial services is a topic of some importance both to the financial services sector itself and in international trade negotiations. Unfortunately, intrinsic problems in defining and measuring trade in services, combined with a lack of data in many countries, have made empirical analysis of trade in financial services difficult. Recent improvements in data, although still providing only a limited coverage, do now provide a basis for analysis. In this paper, we use data from the OECD International Trade in Services Statistics 2001 database to conduct an analysis of trade in financial services based on standard theories and empirical techniques for international trade. Our results suggest that the key concepts of international trade are of use in understanding international trade flows in financial services. In particular, we find evidence of significant volumes of intra-industry trade in financial services, as well as significant volumes of inter-industry trade for some countries, including the UK. Using Balassa's ‘revealed comparative advantage’ index, the most highly ranked countries are Belgium-Luxembourg, Italy, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and Greece. Using the ‘net export ratio’, the countries that are ranked highest include Germany, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and Belgium-Luxembourg.     

中国服装对日本出口贸易的市场势力分析——以衬衫出口状况为例

本文以男式棉质衬衫为例估计并分析了我国服装产业在日本市场的市场势力,回归结果显示我国服装产业的国际市场势力较弱且近年呈下降趋势,致使我国的比较优势没有得到充分发挥,出现了应得与实际获得的比较利益背离的不利格局。针对这一亟待扭转的"格局",论文从国内服装出口市场集中度、服装产业国际分工地位和服装产业密集使用要素三个方面探索了"市场势力"较弱的原因,并就如何构建我国服装产业的国际市场势力提出了若干建议。     

中韩贸易中的非一体化贸易转向: 机制、过程与结果

中韩贸易逆差产生的内在原因是韩国对华直接投资所引致的非一体化贸易转向,这同时也是开放条件下推动比较优势向竞争优势转化的主体间的利益分配问题。在讨论中韩贸易逆差的国际直接投资因素的基础上,研究中韩贸易中的非一体化贸易转向,并探讨其结构效应和比较利益分配机制。     

中国服务贸易国际竞争力研究

本文主要从国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显性比较优势指数、显示性竞争比较优势指数4个方面对中国服务贸易国际竞争力进行分析,探讨了影响中国服务贸易国际竞争力提升的原因并提出了相关对策建议。     

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North‐North, North‐South and South‐North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North‐North and North‐South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home‐biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.     

源于比较优势的贸易所得:来自中国的证据

本文根据新古典贸易模型中的贸易所得的理论定义,对测算源于比较优势的贸易所得的基本方法及其理论基础进行了回顾和分析,在此基础上利用进出口额的现值与贸易所得的估算值之间的格兰杰逻辑关系,对中国源于比较优势的贸易所得进行了测算。本文的测算结果表明,中国源于比较优势的贸易所得的最大估算值约为GDP的5%。从比较的角度考察,这一结论的政策含义是,主要依赖劳动力资源或不可再生自然资源比较优势的贸易模式已不具备可持续发展性,建立基于动态比较优势的对外贸易战略应成为包括中国在内的发展中国家的贸易政策选择。     

International Trade Agreements and International Migration

Despite large potential economic gains, bilateral and multilateral negotiations focusing on liberalisation of migration have not shared the high profile of international trade negotiations and agreements. Migration and trade have been traditionally viewed rather separately and the relevance of the many, and complex, interdependencies has been given remarkably little attention in the literature to date. In this article, we focus on the two‐way interaction between international migration and agreements designed to enhance cross‐border trade and investment. Liberalisation of international trade in services and in the movement of people potentially offers much greater economic gains than liberalisation of remaining barriers to goods trade. However, progress within multilateral frameworks is fraught with difficulty. The World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has yielded little real progress so far and negotiations within more flexible unilateral and bilateral frameworks are likely to be more successful in liberalising the movement of labour. We discuss a range of specific examples, focusing particularly on the interesting case of New Zealand. We find that trade agreements are increasingly including agreements on migration, though typically favouring temporary migration and involving numerically modest quotas. We conclude that migration regulatory frameworks are likely to be further and more strongly linked to trade and investment agreements in the future, particularly given changing economic and demographic forces. The primary focus of migration policies may nonetheless remain different from that of trade policies. While further migration liberalisation is likely to be through bilateral and regional agreements, it will be important to try to lock in the gains of such agreements, while simultaneously working to consolidating these in a way that will help to facilitate future multilateral agreement.     

Impact of international trade on unemployment under oligopoly

By studying a two-sector general equilibrium model in which firms engage in oligopolistic competition and unemployment is a result of the existence of efficiency wages, we derive the following results analytically. A country's comparative advantage in producing manufactured goods increases with the level of efficiencies in the labor market. The opening of international trade leads to the equalization of wage rates even though countries differ in their factor endowments and labor market efficiencies. If countries have the same level of labor market efficiencies but differ in their endowments of labor and land, the opening to international trade leads to an increase in the wage rate in both countries.     

No Risk,No Fun? Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe

In the course of transition from planned economies to market economies, foreign direct investment played an important role and contributed to international economic integration in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper investigates the determinants of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe, a region which in large part still lacks strong institutions. The empirical analysis presented in this article fi nds evidence that country default risk is not necessarily a hindrance to FDI. In contrast, factors like market size, labour cost and trade liberalisation do matter for FDI engagement in the region.     

Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade

Empirically, demand and market size effects play an important role for international trade in assets and the determination of asset prices. Financial integration decreases the cost of capital, asset prices increase with investors base and market size determines international financial flows. We present a two-country model with an endogenous number of financial assets, where the interaction of a risk diversification motive and market segmentation explains those facts. In our set up, an imperfectly competitive structure of financial markets emerges naturally and provides a new source for home bias in equity holdings. Due to co-ordination failures, the extent of financial market incompleteness is inefficiently high in equilibrium.